03/03/07 - Giants (Morris) @ Brewers (Sheets) : 2:05 PM CT

[AJAY]

Sheets never does well during spring training. I wouldn't worry about it.

[RedbirdRay]

Someone from another board figured out how to get into gameday links during ST. Guess it doesn't seem to be officially up and running or anything, but it's something.

 

linky linky

[iluvlamp]

Balfour seems to be, how you say, bad.

[cruiserx43]

Yeah brutal inning, but better that they are getting through the infield than shots into the gap or off the wall.

[Ennder]

3 year splits for sheets

 

Innings 1-3 - OPS against .624

Innings 4-6 - OPS against .686

Innings 7-9 - OPS against .646

 

Just one more example of someone posting stuff without any real evidence to back it up. Btw, almost all pitchers have higher OPS in the first 15 pitches than the rest of the game, its just how things work, Sheets doesn't lose because he gives up runs early, he doesn't give up runs in any different pattern than other pitchers in baseball.

 

Looking at pitchers in general they all give up above average runs in the 1st, then are strongest in 2nd and 3rd and then tend to have problems in the 4th and then again in the 6th. Sheets seems to follow the exact same pattern as every other pitcher i look at.

[whizkid]

He said 1st inning but you gave us 3 inning splits. Doesn't seem on target. Ben's 1st inning 3 year split OPS against is .769.

 

Btw, almost all pitchers have higher OPS in the first 15 pitches than the rest of the game, its just how things work, Sheets doesn't lose because he gives up runs early, he doesn't give up runs in any different pattern than other pitchers in baseball.

 

Could you give us some evidence to back that up? I don't know where to find the OPS by inning splits averaged together for say the top 20 or 25 pitchers in the league.

[molitor fan]

Thanks for doing the work on that Ennder to show Buck the error of his ways, though I doubt it will make a difference

[pitchleague]

Quote:

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Looking at pitchers in general they all give up above average runs in the 1st, then are strongest in 2nd and 3rd and then tend to have problems in the 4th and then again in the 6th.

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I'm assuming this is because you'd face the opposition's best hitters in the first inning (obviously) and then most of those same hitters in the 4th and 6th innings as the lineup turns over (assuming the pitcher can get the bottom of the lineup guys out with the occasional baserunner, and also assuming he doesn't let teams bat around all day)

[Ennder]

Santana - pitches 1-15 - .733 , inn 1 - .681, overall - .592

Oswalt - pitches 1-15 - .785 , inn 1 - .687, overall - .694

Carpenter - pitches 1-15 - .690, inn 1 - .624, overall - .645

Halladay - pitches 1-15 - .589, inn 1 - .639, overall - .650 (freak!)

Peavy - pitches 1-15 - .678, inn 1 - .687, overall - .670

Zambrano - pitches 1-15 - .692, inn 1 - .597, overall - .646

Mussina - pitches 1-15 - .724, inn 1 - .732, overall - .723

 

 

Once you get into the mediocre pitchers I tended to notice that they had a lot more troubles in the late innings but they still trended to have higher 1st inning reducing until the 4th where it spikes up again.

 

Quote:

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He said 1st inning but you gave us 3 inning splits. Doesn't seem on target. Ben's 1st inning 3 year split OPS against is .769.

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Sheets is kind of a strange case with the 3 year splits. In the past 3 years he's had 278 AB's against him in the 1st inning which I didn't really feel was enough AB's which is why I looked at his career trends. In his career he's been .740 OPS against 1st inning, .718 OPS against total which is right in line with the majority of those pitchers I listed.

[bucksman4]

The point was made that his first inning does suck.

 

I don't see the point in trying to refute statistics that indicate innings 1-3. I didn't mention innings 2 or 3 anywhere in my statements. I watch Ben's games. I know he stinks in the first innings very often.

 

Thank you for putting together those first inning numbers there whiz kid. That might zip some people's lips who throw cheap shots at me when I was ultimately correct in my assertions. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[Ennder]

Quote:

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In his career he's been .740 OPS against 1st inning, .718 OPS against total which is right in line with the majority of those pitchers I listed

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Except you weren't right. You remember a few times when he got banged up early and they stick in your head when the reality is he's no different than any other pitcher over his career.

[whizkid]

Pitches don't seem on target either. If you have a bad 1st inning you get into pitches 15-30 or higher. Going only by innings, it seems Carpenter, Oswalt, Halladay, Zambrano don't follow Ben's pattern and Peavy and Mussina not as much.

 

I picked Jason Schmidt at random and found for 3 year splits:

 

1st: .608

1-3: .642

4-6: .676

7-9: .700

 

I'm not necessarily disputing what you're saying but I think there's a double standard in the evidence required.

[Ennder]

Yeah I guess I was arguing 2 different things, I set out to prove the 1st 15 pitches are generally bad for all pitchers with that table. There are also sample size issues at play, when you are dealing with such small numbers it takes a good 6 or 7 years for things to solidify..

 

Looking at Schmidts career numbers he's

 

.703

.637

.711

.712

.660

.741

.695

 

with a .698 overall.

[sundevil1]

New pictures up from today.

 

 

www.public.asu.edu/~dbpauley/

[Mass Haas]

Thanks for the pics -- "Cerveceros" jerseys ("Brewers" in Spanish).

 

These are by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images via Yahoo -- Ozzie Chavez and J.J. Hardy:

 

http://us.i1.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/sp/getty/45/fullj.getty-73447736sd009_san_francisco_8_46_08_pm.jpg

 

http://us.i1.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/sp/getty/1a/fullj.getty-73447736sd011_san_francisco_9_04_54_pm.jpg

[rluzinski]

If the Brewers are down 1 run in the first, they are going to score less runs? That's really the theory here? What's that based on? Let me guess...

[sbrylski]

...and if this "hole" in Sheets game causes him to have a 3.13 ERA over his past three years (500 IP), I think I can live with it.