Late inning situation moves puzzling at best

[rickh150]

I don't want this to be a bash Ned post; there is one of those already. What I'm hoping for is some clarification as to why he does the things he does in late inning situations. I've been asking the same questions all season( and last season) to myself and others watching the games with me. I have yet seen anything in print from Tom H. or the Wisconsin State Journal to answer these questions- seriously, our postgame press conferences questions have pretty tame baseball questions; thus, I am posing these questions abroad. Hopefully, someone has seen something somewhere in print as to why Ned pulls some of these late inning moves and non-moves. If you have, please give the site. If you haven't and have some decent reasoning to argue my point, by al means............

 

Close game, 7th inning, runners on 1st and 2nd with 2 outs, Hall batting facing a righty....Ned leaves him in. Rather than play the numbers, which at times he brags about, and bat Branyan who has been dominant against righties, he leaves the .150 batter against righties in...........Why? What is so perplexing, is that he has been platooning those two in starts anyway. Why not let the hot man bat in a KEY situation?

 

Close game(sorry, can't think of score- within the last couple of weeks),Russell facing a lefty with a runner on 3rd and one out, Ned fails to make the proper move of getting a likely strikeout against a lefty and putting in a contact man of righty Dillon or Kapler. Even if a righty comes in from the pen, I still much would rather have that matchup than Russell verses a lefty- easy decision.

 

Now these strike a nerve.......... the past three games in Colorado, in two of those games the Brewers had a late innig lead.....by one and by three I believe. Neither game did Ned play his best outfield late. On Friday with a three run lead in the 8th, Mike Cameron was still sitting on the bench as two near diving catches were not made in center, allowing the Rockies to come back and win a heartbreaker. On Sunday, after Kapler made the last out in the 8th and would not bat again, Gold Glove Cameron once again stayed on the bench to watch Kapler make an error that put a man in scoring position in the bottom of the 8th.

 

Finally, what is still unbelievable to me, is that Rickie Weeks plays the 8th/9th inning when the Brewers have a lead. Announcers keep bringing up his low error totals and praise him for improvement. I give him credit too, but he's not Craig C. in the field. Weeks still struggles with the routine double play throw, and it has cost us this year in the 9th already. What's maddening is Ned pulling Joe Dillon Sunday after his error in the late innings for Craig. Although I totally agree with the move, that move has not been made with Weeks this season. Does Ned believe Weeks is a better fielder than Craig? Or is he afraid to make the move because of how Weeks will respond?

 

Please, someone...........are the answers out there? Have some of these questions been asked and answered already. Many of these shown situations have happened numerous times over the at least year and a third and have cost our beloved Brewers games and in my opinion the playoffs last year. Help me out if you can.......

[sweepscc]

Scenario #1: What is close game? 5-2; 3-2? And was Hall having a great game in the batter's box and perhaps Yost was trying to get Billy back on track

 

Scenario #2: Was Branyan a substitution for Hall? How many lefties did the opposition have in the pen, maybe Yost wanted to burn their lefty?

 

Scenario #3: Melvin's poor bullpen acquisitions this off season are the reason why we lost those games not outfield personnel. Gold Glove Cameron also was watching good outfielder Kapler actually hit the ball something he hasn't been able to do as of late.

[JohnBriggs12]

The first instance was Sunday I believe. Hall had one two out RBI already. It was the 7th, not the 9th, and the Brewers were leading albeit by one run. A couple batters later was the pitcher's spot where a PH was going to be needed. Branyan was used then. Weeks wasn't available because of injury making the bench shorter. I think any manager is going to show confidence in a guy there regardless of what he's done this year. You're going to need Bill Hall. A lot of guys failed with RISP in that game. Besides, you bring Branyan in to hit there with men on and Colorado will bring in a lefty as sure as I am writing this.

[endaround]

That Hall non-move was a coin toss--The Rockies had DeLaRosa already warmed in the pen, so doing nothing and saving a hitter isn't a bad thing.

 

That said Yost is really bad at pinch hitting for his starters.

[rickh150]

Scenerio #1-2 Good points, but when key situations arise, and most of the time the average fan can feel them late in the game, Ned lets .220 righty strikeout hitters(Hall, Cameron) bat against righties and lefty strikeout batters(Branyan) bat against lefties

Scenerio #3- 8th inning...........Kapler isn't going to bat again...put the gloves in... if it goes extra so be it

Scenerio #4 Weeks D?

The moves mentioned are not personal knocks on the players. I would just like to see more logical moves made putting people in the right position at the right time of the game.

[jazzytrav]

Besides, you bring Branyan in to hit there with men on and Colorado will bring in a lefty as sure as I am writing this.

 

That's what I was thinking, too. I guess at that point it depends on who you trust more...Hall against righties or Branyan against lefties.

 

And Hall is not a .150 batter against righties. You can't just take this season's stats into account.

[rickh150]

Great points, endaround and JohnBriggs.........thank you for the specifics in those games. I agree that burning through your bench in the 7th is debatable, but in my opininion something that Ned needs to do more early on-bat Bush and Parra if it goes extras. Did either of you see quotes on Ned from these moves/ non moves? I rarely read about him defending any of his baseball moves beside pitching decisions.

 

If a lefty comes in to face Branyan in the 7th, Yost can still pinch hit Cameron

[jazzytrav]

If a lefty comes in to face Branyan in the 7th, Yost can still pinch hit Cameron

 

I don't think you can pinch hit twice in the same at-bat. What JB and I were talking about was bringing Branyan in to bat for Hall against a righty. You can't pinch hit Branyan, have the other team bring in a lefty, then pinch hit Cameron.

[cubfan1126]

If a lefty comes in to face Branyan in the 7th, Yost can still pinch hit Cameron

I don't think you can pinch hit twice in the same at-bat. What JB and I were talking about was bringing Branyan in to bat for Hall against a righty. You can't pinch hit Branyan, have the other team bring in a lefty, then pinch hit Cameron.

Oh, but you can do just that. It is a horrible to waste a PH but it can be done. It's the pitcher that must face at least 1 batter (or have 1 play made like a successful pickoff.)

[1992casey]

You can pinch hit twice in the same at bat; the only issue is emptying your bench. A pitcher has to face at least one hitter, though, unless he's injured during that at bat.

[endaround]

Yep, and late in games where you only have the pitcher spot up one more time its often worth it. That said, Yost never does that either. In fact he'd often set up his lineups so he really couldn't do that (last year it was Fielder Estrada Jenkins, daring opposing managers to throw out the LOOGY. And then when he goes to lift Jenkins, lo and behold the other team had a right hander waiting for Mench)

[brewjihad]

You can pinch hit twice in the same at bat; the only issue is emptying your bench.

I recall opening day 2006, where Ned pinch-hit Gabe Gross in the seventh inning and then put in Cirillo for him when the made a pitching change. Cirillo lines a base hit that gets the eventual winning run.

[davego]

The non-move that really got me was not using Cam late in the game. While he is not hitting a lick, he is still the better fielder and could have helped the team there. That, to me,is part of managing that gets away from this staff. The CV move (3 outs/10 pitches)...that one has been addressed enough...but still frustrates me.

[BrewCityUnit]

Scenario #3: Melvin's poor bullpen acquisitions this off season are the reason why we lost those games not outfield personnel

 

 

Are you serious? How can you fault Melvin for his bullpen acquisitions this off-season? What would your plan have been? I think he did a great job of getting quality proven bull pen arms with the hopes that a couple of them will have good to great seasons....which has been the case this year. The same with the Tavarez signing, to me that is a very good pick up. Would you rather have Tavarez out there of DeFeliece or Zach Jack

 

Mota has been about as good as advertized....more good outings than bad outings

Riske has been a bit of a disappointment when healthy, but I am confidnent he will bounce back

Gagne has been a disappointment but in reality, he hasn't been getting hit hard this year, he has just had some bad luck.

Torres has been out of his mind...probably due for a little bit out a letdown

 

How are those 4 guys the reason we are losing? Like I said, they are not all going to have career years and a great outing everytime they pitch...all you can hope for is that one or two of them gives you a better than average year. There will be times where all of them pitch brilliantly and other times when they disappoint.

 

If you want to place blame for this team struggles (if you call 33-30 a struggle) besides the obvious Mr. Yost, I would look squarely at our offense. That area we are consistenly being disappointed.

[jazzytrav]

"More good outings than bad outings" sounds very, very bad for a relief pitcher. I don't think I would be confident in a pitcher that is effective 55% of the time.

 

I wasn't disappointed in Riske. I think he'll be very good when he gets back.

[jeffy]

Gold Glove Cameron also was watching good outfielder Kapler actually hit the ball something he hasn't been able to do as of late.

The question was why not a defensive substitution for the 8th and 9th to try to hold a lead, even when Kapler was not going to bat again or was unlikely to.

[nate82]

"More good outings than bad outings" sounds very, very bad for a relief pitcher. I don't think I would be confident in a pitcher that is effective 55% of the time.

 

I wasn't disappointed in Riske. I think he'll be very good when he gets back.

Mota is better than what we gave away to the Mets for him and the same can be said about Torres. Torres is probably the best acquisition this off season for Melvin. We gambled and got the 2004 and 2005 version of Torres.

 

[RightFieldCoder]

Here is the answer that would probably come out of Ned's mouth:

 

"First, Cam had the night off. He was told in the morning he had the night off to get his head on straight so he contribute to the offense. Suddenly putting him in there in the eighth inning for defense wouldn't give him the proper 'off day' that he needs. Second, I could use Branyan for Hall in the seventh, but that wouldn't show confidence in Hall. Also, I might need Branyan to pitch hit for the pitcher in the 14th inning. I've got to leave my options open in case it goes extra. That's the same reason the back up catcher never even thinks about playing."

 

I don't agree with the logic, but there it is. I'm sure Yost read about it in chapters 3 and 8 in The Book. If you don't follow The Book you'll be banished from baseball. And that's the real reason Pete Rose is no where to be found.

 

(retrospection: the last sentence sounds like DM)

[endaround]

Pete Rose was much more interested in another type of book

[rickh150]

Next scenerio-Late innings again, 7th inning on Mon., Brewers down by one, pitcher spot up, man at second and two outs. Typical Yost move, Ned brings in Hernan I., a guy just called up hitting .270 in AAA to face Oswalt. Granted, being left-handed is the only positive here, Ned still leapfrogged better options in Dillon, Kapler, and maybe Craig C. Remember, a walk at least would bring Hart up with two men on(Dillon's OBP is over 400).............why Dillon and Kapler get this lack of respect for hitting so well this season is beyond me....seriously, how can you not get Kapler in the lineup more, or at the very least get him an atbat a game.

Next scenerio- Last night with a one run lead late in the game, I believe, Hernan bats for the pitcher again bypassing Kapler and Dillon with a man on 1st, no outs. Ned has him hitting away, which I don't agree with, but is plausible. Once again, hot hitting Kapler and Dillon do not see action in a key spot, while a guy not on the Brewers roster last week is.

Are media types asking the whys and how comes with these situations?

[RightFieldCoder]

I think Russ has stats to back this up, but I believe it is a bad move to "ride the hot bat". Kapler and Dillon have been insanely good this year, but that means they will become insanely bad at some point to regress to the mean. You can't look at what has happened in the last week or month, but what has happened over the entire career and what they project to do this year. Kapler and Dillon have both been out of baseball, and neither could land a starting gig. So the question becomes "who do you think will have better stats after 600 ABs against this pitcher this year?". I don't know if Hernan is the answer, but one could assume most teams don't have a good scouting report on him, especially the night he was called up. Not a clear cut choice imho.

 

Now, the choice to put in Julian Tavaraz in a 1 run game the day after an off day...

[endaround]

That is not what regress to the mean means. It means that what Kapler and Dillon have done so far this year has little bearing on what they'll do next. That being said, Dillon is a much better hitter than Iribarren and in the 8th with the pitcher spot not coming up again in most circumstances, having Iribarren hit is just bad. Yost likes to get guys up in games right away which explains Tuesday somewhat but yesterday was just bad especially considering Iribarren was the last remaining true MI.

[TooLiveBrew]

Kapler and Dillon have both been out of baseball, and neither could land a starting gig.

 

Joe Dillon had a severe back injury that led him to retire. This 'Dillon was out of baseball' line gets thrown around too much imo. He actually had a nice minor-league career before & after the injury.

[jazzytrav]

I'm also quite certain that there are several teams that Joe Dillon would start for.