2009 Draft Thread, Summer Showcases and Leagues

[colbyjack]

Per Buster Olney via MLBTradeRumors, Strasburg is advised by Scott Boras. Since the Nationals at this point in time are the favorite to be picking first overall in next year's draft, and considering they were unable to sign Aaron Crow, another Boras advisee, I think it's safe to say that Strasburg is by no means a safe bet to go first overall next June.

 

That doesn't mean the Nationals are cheap, as they have been pouring plenty of money into their scouting and player development the past few years. The same goes for the Padres, who in addition to their drafting efforts poured a lot of money last month on some big-name players from Latin America.

[colbyjack]

There's an extremely fascinating and well-written story on BA by Aaron Fitt that talks about Oklahoma State LHP Andrew Oliver and his current battle with the NCAA about being suspended indefinitely for having an agent as opposed to an advisor (subscribers only):

 

http://www.baseballameric...n-campus/2008/266743.html

 

For those of you that don't care about the story or how it turns out, I can tell you that according to this story Oliver has retained the services of the Scott Boras Corp., and therefore will be no easy sign for next June's draft.

 

The Boras count for '09 is up to two (Strasburg).

[colbyjack]

Tanner Scheppers, who was a 2nd round pick of the Pittsburgh Pirates and could have gone in the top 10 picks overall in last June's draft had it not been for an arm injury that shut him down, has decided not to return to Fresno State and instead will rehab and pitch in an independent league next spring:

 

http://www.fresnobee.com/...ulldogs/story/827773.html

 

The story reveals that the Pirates offered $800k, but Scheppers wanted $1.2M.

 

Scheppers as well as Aaron Crow will add two incredibly talented arms to what looks like an already pitching heavy draft in '09, at least from the college side.

 

Relief pitcher Scott Bittle, who the Yankees were unable to sign, is returning to Ole Miss after an incredible junior year, and adds yet another intriguing arm to the '09 draft crop.

[battlekow]

Nick at Driveline Mechanics took a look at Scheppers a couple days ago and doesn't like the combination of Scheppers being new-ish to pitching and having shoulder problems.

[colbyjack]

PG Crosschecker and Baseball America have started to post their top prospect lists for all of the summer leagues. I'm going to include the link to PGCC's coverage since they go deeper in almost every league. I handled the Northwoods League again this year, with Missouri OF Aaron Senne getting top honors.

 

http://www.pgcrosschecker...pects/summer_leagues.aspx

 

This link shows the top prospect from every league, with the additional links eventually providing the scouting reports to the top 10, 25 and even 100 (Cape Cod League) prospects for all of the summer leagues out there.

[battlekow]

Project Prospect with scouting reports on their top 7 pitchers from the AFLAC All-American Game (they're not crazy, Purke is #1)

[Blazer25]

2 issues with the project prospect article:

 

Turner hit 94 mph and worked 90-92 with his fastball and offers mid 70's breaking ball. He showed lots of polish to go along with good mechanics -- although his arm action is a little long. He pitches aggressively -- using both sides of the plate -- and has the stuff to be front-of-the-rotation starter.

Not sure I've ever heard that as a negative before when referring to a pitchers mechanics.

 

 

and

 

 

Wheeler hit 95 mph with a heavy, sinking fastball and showed a very good curveball to go along with his change up. He has terrific mehcanics that make him look like he was taught by Tim Lincecum's dad.

If Lincecum is the model of good mechanics, I'm afraid to see what he thinks are poor mechanics.

 

 

 

Overall the list is decent. Most of the right names are though I disagree with the order. There were also few notable omissions...most glaringly Michael Givens. I know he didn't get to throw a full inning but 93-96 with + life and an above average change-up probably warrants top 10 consideration.

[battlekow]

I think a lot of people are considering Givens a SS; plus, as we learned from Colby's AFLAC game article, Givens only threw two pitches.

 

Lincecum's mechanics are divisive. A lot of the newer mechanical analysts on the web love him, seeing him as the paragon of energy transfer.

[colbyjack]

I don't see Lincecum's delivery/mechanics with Wheeler. It has become more popular to compare certain types of pitchers (Michael Palazzone comes to mind) to Lincecum, those that have that more violent looking delivery although ones that clearly generate velocity from the bottom up. I know the jury is still out on how Lincecum will hold up long-term, although that may spark a new debate about how many innings he has pitched early in his career.

 

As for the rest of the analysis, when I saw Turner in Cedar Rapids last February, everyone raved about how easy Turner's delivery worked. As Blazer noted, being long isn't necessarily a bad thing, especially given how simple Turner makes it look.

 

And yes, it was difficult to get a true read on Givens in the Aflac game since he was in and out so quickly, and I agree with the growing sentiment that his future lies on the mound, not as shortstop. I'm sure there will be some online hitting experts ready to tear into his swing http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif.

 

And Slade Heathcott needs to channel his frustration much better before I applaud him too much for his competetiveness.

[colbyjack]

As I and others have talked about before, TUSA was led by their impressive pitching staff, with LHP Andrew Oliver having impressive command on his 89-93 fastball while also having an ideal, sturdy pitching frame, and Kyle Gibson has arguably the most electric slider of any '09 draft eligible. Oliver needs to find a breaking pitch that works for him, while Gibson needs to rely less on his slider.

 

Kendal Volz served as TUSA's closer, but likely will be groomed as a starter as a pro. He has a 93-94 FB and hammer curve, although I'm not a fan of his mechanics, which may be better suited in a short relief role. A.J. Griffin, a closer for San Diego, pitched at 89-91 this summer with a very good curveball. Like Volz his delivery is on the max effort side, otherwise I would like to see him tried as a starter given his prototypical workhorse stature and well-rounded repertoire.

 

Anyway, those are my quick thoughts on a few of the pitchers that impressed me the most, as I wasn't able to catch either Strasburg or Minor, although I have seen both in the past. Here's BA's take on TUSA's top 20 prospects (subscribers only):

 

http://www.baseballameric...team-usa/2008/266848.html

 

Stephen Strasburg

http://www.baseballamerica.com/images/sstrasburg08428309bf1.jpg

[colbyjack]

I offer up my summer all-star team of players I had the opportunity to see play this summer in my most recent column:

 

http://www.pgcrosschecker...rt/2008/summers_best.aspx

 

PGCC also has released their top 250 players eligible for the '09 draft. That subscriber-based, so I won't bother with the link, but it's no surprise that Strasburg is #1. I'm happy to see Purke at #4, although he's #2 on my list. Kyle Gibson (their #2) is a little further down my own personal list, as he does have arguably the filthiest slider of any '09 draft eligible, and he does have a projectable frame, but I'm concerned about his FB and FB command. The velocity is there, but it's far from an unhittable pitch.

 

The '09 draft is going to be similar to the '04 draft, in which the college pitching will be heavy at the top, and as always, Scott Boras is going to play a significant role (Stephen Strasburg and Andrew Oliver are the known players aligned with the well-known super-agent).

[HF29]

Nice list, Colby Jack. Didn't realize you had made it to the Cape. I realize he was only there about two weeks, but did you get to see Dustin Ackley at all? Speaking of Ackley, it should probably be noted that Ackley and Grant Green -- the top two draft-eligible college position players on EVERYONE'S list -- are represented by Boras.

[colbyjack]

I didn't make it to the Cape. A certain someone was kind enough to tape the all-star game for me. I used to get a lot more footage from the Cape from a lurker that would venture to quite a few games that allowed me to cover that league in a lot greater detail. One of these years I'll make it out.

 

Thanks for the note on Green/Ackley regarding their affiliation with Boras. I had not heard that, as they now join Stephen Strasburg and Andrew Oliver.