Sheets blurb in Sporting News

[Oldcity]

Yeah, that's true. I think the Brewers should try to get him extended during the season to avoid that, though.

[NYChez]

If you broke down "4 years / $60 million" into the following:

 

1. What if you could sign him for a 1-year deal for X dollars.

2. What if someone could, in 2008, sign him to a deferred 1-year deal for 2010 for Y dollars.

3. What if someone could, in 2008, sign him to a deferred 1-year deal for 2011 for Z dollars.

4. What if someone could, in 2008, sign him to a deferred 1-year deal for 2012 for N dollars.

 

I see the 4th dollar amount (signing him now to pitch for you in 2012) as having a value of maybe $3 million.

The 3rd dollar amount (pitch for you in 2011) has a value of maybe $7 million.

The 2nd dollar amount (pitch for you in 2010) has a value of maybe $10 million.

If you accept those amounts, we'd essentially be paying him $40 million to pitch in 2009! These deals have such diminshed values following year 1, that you can think of it as most of the contract's money going toward year 1.

 

For comparison, see Pedro Martinez's 2005 four-year / $54 Million deal with the Mets. The return on investment assuming he earned his entire salary was like this:

Year 1: $42 million

Year 2: $10 million

Year 3: $1 million

Year 4: $1 million

 

It would nice to see Sheets and Gallardo in the same rotation for a season, but the cost (possibly $40 million for one season) would be very high.

[Oldcity]

Maybe I'm just a little off today, but I'm not really following what you're saying there. Do you mind explaining more? I've never really seen diminished value quantified...

[rluzinski]

By diminishing value, do you mean:

 

(projected performance in 2011) x (projected % of season played)

 

I've seen some mini studies showing how many innings an above average 30 year old starting pitcher accumulates over the next few years and it wasn't pretty.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

I just don't see any options to signing Sheets...even with all of the risks involved, we need to do it. By shifting Cameron and Gagne out in '09, or getting Cam to resign for less...they could afford it. With the added costs from the arby guys like Fielder, there won't be much room for much else, but I would do it. Sheets is the ace, and a rotation of Sheets, Yo, Soup, Parra and a fifth with a pen anchored by Torres, Riske, Shouse...maybe Villy depending on whether he starts or not...is strong. The bet becomes they stay healthy, our lineup rebounds and the defense improves with age. It's by no means clear cut, but I'm willing to take that chance.

 

Take Sheets out of that rotation and replace him with Bush/Weaver/McClung types...that's not a recipe for a strong run. There is no one close in the minors and there won't be any better deals in free agency. It is a chance that could blow up...no doubt, but the Brewers are close enough that it's worth doing.

 

Their only other option is a significant trade...and not the top 3-5 underperforming guys that people are sick of on the board like Hall or TGJ. It would have to be a guy like LaPorta or Fielder...that's not an easy thing to swallow.

[TooLiveBrew]

Just to be clear, Cameron has a baseline $10M club option for 2009 ($750k buyout). So if he's retained, it'll be for more, not less. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Very true, but with a very small and early sample size, there is no way the Brewers pick up that option. The Brewers might like him enough to sign for less, which may or may not be more or less than he could get on the open market. The only guarantee is the $750k.

[joepepsi]

It would be great if he'd sign a Halladay type deal, but someone, I'm predicting Boston, will offer him a Zito type contract. Zito was 2 years younger than Sheets will be when he signed, so maybe it will be for a year or two less.

 

I could see the Brewers putting a 5 year/$75 million deal on the table. But a team like Boston may be looking to replace Schilling's salary. He'll get an offer for 6 years/$105 million. Throw in a $20 million option for a 7th year, and he'll be foolish not to take it.

 

The injuries will be a concern, but it's important to remember he hasn't had a labrum, rotator cuff, or elbow injury. He's as likely as any veteran pitcher to remain healthy for the next several seasons.

[Oldcity]

If it gets that far, the Brewers are toast. They should approach him soon with a four year deal. 5 years/75 mil is too risky, but probably not necessary if it's done before season's end.