Cameron and Kapler- Let the debate begin

[FVBrewerFan]

I've been thinking about it, but now I don't think it's too soon to bring it up after this homestand. At what point do you sacrifice better defense in CF for a better bat (or hotter bat at least ?) I would ride Kapler in Colorado and see what happens. Especially with Weeks struggling, you just have to have guys on base for Braun and Fielder. That makes the whole offense go. Hall, Cameron you have been Yosted. Weeks listen to the bell...it tolls for thee.

[brewtank34]

A buddy of mine and I were just talking about this and he brought up a great suggestion:

Cameron in CF 60% of the time and Kapler in CF 40% of the time. Have Kapler respite Braun 1 outta 7 games and respite Hall one of 7 games. That would have Cameron in 60% , Kapler in 69% and Braun/Hart with 84% each.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I've been starting to wonder when it'll happen. I'm sure the Brewers are going to give Cameron a somewhat long leash, given his contract. I know contract shouldn't be the deciding factor when putting together a lineup, but in reality, it always is.

 

That being said, if/when Kapler cools down, his OBP could get ugly, because the guy just doesn't take a lot of walks, or at least he's not this year.

[Oldcity]

Why not just let Kapler stay in the role he's in which he's having success? Cameron is not going to be this bad all season, and he's better defensively. Kapler is not really close to Cameron as an overall player.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

Kapler is not really close to Cameron as a hitter, either. A reasonable guess at Kapler's true-talent hitting ability is something like .260 / .320 / .370. Due to his success this year, I've bumped that up 10 points of AVG, 10 of OBP, and 20 of SLG from what I would've said before the season. I know it can be difficult to remember that there are baseball games played that do not involve the Milwaukee Brewers, and that there were lots and lots of baseball games played before this season started, but can we try? For my sake? Please?

 

Russ has done a really good job in a bunch of threads lately explaining why "riding the hot hand" is a fool's errand, so I'll resist my urge to go into that as well.

[adambr2]

A buddy of mine and I were just talking about this and he brought up a great suggestion:

 

Cameron in CF 60% of the time and Kapler in CF 40% of the time. Have Kapler respite Braun 1 outta 7 games and respite Hall one of 7 games. That would have Cameron in 60% , Kapler in 69% and Braun/Hart with 84% each.

Hart and especially Braun don't need that many days off. That's nearly a full month off for the course of the season for our best offensive threat. There's no reason Braun should need to sit out more than 1-2 days a month unless there is some kind of illness/injury.

 

[DonMoney4Mgr]

The only time Kapler has struggled this year is when he played 5 or 6 games in a row early in the season. He is not an everday player. However, he is outstanding in his current role. Cameron, on the other hand, is an awful 2 hole hitter and a change should be made there. I would like to see Ned sit Cam more often in addition to moving him down in the lineup. The problem, of course, is who bats 2. Hardy is the best option IMO.

[JJHardy7]

but can we try? For my sake? Please?

 

Russ has done a really good job in a bunch of threads lately explaining why "riding the hot hand" is a fool's errand, so I'll resist my urge to go into that as well.

 

Well for my sake can we realize there are different opinions. Can we try? Please?

 

I do believe there is such a thing as riding the "hot hand". We hear the word "sample size" thrown around all the time around here and that's fair enough, but some players get on streaks in this game. Look at JJ Hardy's crazy power last year. If he was a sub last year hittnig that well it would've been foolish to sit him while he was having a power streak.

 

I'd also look at Branyan right now. He's playing well above his career norms, but he was raking in AAA and now MLB so it's safe to say he's on a hot streak. Will that last all year? Most likely not, but it doesn't hurt to ride it while it lasts.

 

I tend to think "riding the hot hand" is having two different meanings. What's the harm in playing a sub a few games if he's hitting well? I don't think anyone in this thread is suggesting benching Cameron the duration of the season in favor of Kapler. Cameron is struggling and Kapler is playing well so there is good cause why some would suggest playing him against the Rockies.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

Hot streaks do exist. They're incredibly easy to recognize in hinsight. They're almost impossible to use in a predictive fashion. Kapler went 4 for 5 today. Before that he was 2 for 5 in June. Is this the beginning of a hot streak? I guess we won't know unless we play him more, but the problem is that it might also be the end of one. Those that have researched this question have found that once you remove 20 / 20 hindsight selection bias, recent hot streaks have zero predictive value. If Kapler starts tomorrow, the best guess for his performance will be the same as it always is -- your best estimation of his true-talent hitting ability.

 

Maybe I deserved the mocking -- I could've found a nicer way to communicate my frustration with the omni-present immediate calls to start a clearly inferior backup over a struggling regular every time said backup has one good game. In the long run, you're probably right that it wouldn't make much of a difference whether Kapler or Cameron starts the next few games.

[BrewCrewForever]

First off, I don't think Kapler is much of a drop off on defense. Second I would continue to give Cameron the majority of starts but maybe give Kapler a few more then he was getting. I'm torn because I like both guys and see what both can bring. But its hard to not start to develop a huge man crush on Kapler, I see why those fans in Boston loved the guy so much.

[olsonnet]

Both guys are pretty close to being equal as far as hitting and fielding. But when that happens, the guy getting the $ gets the start most of the time.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

One other thing, the difference between Kapler and Branyan is that non-hot streak Branyan is still a useful hitter to have in the lineup on a regular platoon basis. Non-hot streak Kapler is not, especially against righties. Early in the season, Yost was doing a decent job of platoon protecting Kapler, but now he's just the universal backup OF and 1st PH option, irrespective of the handedness of the pitcher. Even though he spent basically the entirety of his career in hitter's heavens (Texas, Colorado, to a lesser extent Boston), all he could muster against RHP is a career line of 264 / 327 / 397. Given how far his hitting tailed off after 2002, it's safe to say that his true talent hitting ability against RHP is well below that. Maybe 245 / 300 / 360?

 

Yuck.

[jazzytrav]

I'm sure the Brewers are going to give Cameron a somewhat long leash, given his contract. I know contract shouldn't be the deciding factor when putting together a lineup, but in reality, it always is.

This is probably true, but I don't think it's a very good way of saying it. It's not like guys are put out there because the team wants to get their money's worth. The idea is more along the lines of...we're paying this guy this much for a reason (he's a good player), so we'll assume that what we're paying him is what he's worth, and assume that eventually he'll come around and play well enough that he'll be worth this contract.

[T B0NE 10]

Braun is a guy I want playing 162 games a year.

You don't sit superstars

Hart also should be playing everyday

[1992casey]

Given Kapler's injury and retirement years, I thought I'd have to work a bit to find reasonable samples to work with. But that wasn't the case.

 

Not counting Cameron's two "pre-rookie" seasons which totaled 49 ABs, Mike's OPS+ has been below 100 only once. That was way back in 1998. Kapler, on the other hand, has had an OPS+ above 100 in only three seasons, most recently in 2003.

[Crewin06]

Kapler shouldnt get significant playing time permanently, IMO.

 

However I would like to see him get at least one start in Colorado and maybe even 2.

[TooLiveBrew]

Both guys are pretty close to being equal as far as hitting and fielding. But when that happens, the guy getting the $ gets the start most of the time.

 

Maybe in terms of D. No way in terms of batting. Cameron is paid more money because, at worst, he's Kapler with the leather... but Mike has pop in his bat, & he BBs.

[LetsGoBrewCrew]

Kapler gets the bat on the ball also... at least now he is. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but *right now* I'd rather have a guy put the ball in play than K. Cameron and Kapler might each go 1-4 or 2-5 in a particular game.... Cameron will have 2 K's and a popup and Kapler will have 3 flyouts. I'll take the flyouts. Not that I'm arguing Kapler should start full time or anything, but once more a week would be nice. Plus, if a guy goes 4/5... i don't care who you are... why not give him at least one more shot tomorrow to see if he can continue it. And he isn't a dropoff at CF, he just isn't as good. Call it a dropoff if you like, but that sounds dramatic. A dropoff is Cameron too Hall. What would be so bad if Cameron got 2 days off instead of one. Plus, he can all PH and replace Kapler if needed. Its worth a shot when he had such a good game today.

[BrewCrewForever]

If Kapler starts at least once maybe twice per week that would be fine by me.

[TooLiveBrew]

Cameron and Kapler might each go 1-4 or 2-5 in a particular game.... Cameron will have 2 K's and a popup and Kapler will have 3 flyouts.

 

If we get to just select results, make the "1" for Cam a HR, and the "2" for Kapler a pair of singles, and I'll take Cam.

 

 

And he isn't a dropoff at CF, he just isn't as good. Call it a dropoff if you like, but that sounds dramatic. A dropoff is Cameron too Hall.

 

Since they're of similar age, I'll use career lines.

 

Cameron: .250/.339/.445/.784; OPS+ 109 (** played vast majority of his career in pitchers' parks & extreme pitchers' parks)

Kapler: .271/.331/.421/.752; OPS+ 91 (** played literally whole career in hitters' parks)

 

Even though I know some fans are allergic to strikeouts, Cameron still has gotten on base more & hit the ball harder than Gabe.

[Greg Vaughn]

I think we have a large enough sample size now. Cameron is exactly what I said before he started after his 25 game suspension. He doesn't belong in the two hole and to be honest I prefer Kapler right now, hands down.

[danzig6767]

The main reason i'd be ok with Kapler getting a start once a week or so is he's much faster and a better CF than i expected. When he made the team, i figured he'd be a guy that could play CF in a pinch and not really hurt the team defensively, but he'd be at best mediocre out there. The guy can really run for his age and his instincts in CF are fa better than i expected.

 

While i understand the point that Cameron has a better career track record at the plate, he's also not anything close to a special hitter and i don't think there should be some expected big drop off if Kapler got a few more starts than expected while Cameron is struggling at the plate. It's not like taking out say Braun once a week to play Kapler.

[Ennder]

I think we have a large enough sample size now. Cameron is exactly what I said before he started after his 25 game suspension. He doesn't belong in the two hole and to be honest I prefer Kapler right now, hands down.

We don't have anywhere near a large enough sample now, baseball is a long season and jumping to conclusions over 150 PA is just not the way to handle a team.

[twobrewers]

The main reason i'd be ok with Kapler getting a start once a week or so is he's much faster and a better CF than i expected.

So your logic for playing Kapler is because he is faster and better defensively then you expected - even though Cameron is still faster and better defensively than Kapler.

 

How does that make sense?

 

I like Kapler. I love giving him a few at bats and using him as a pinch hitter - but he has a pretty lengthy history suggesting he won't keep this up. I doubt aging and retirement make players better.

[logan82]

Give Kapler 6 starts a month. Two at each outfield position. Any more than that and in my opinion, our regulars are out of the lineup to much.