Latest Draft Tidbits...Tampa will take Beckham at #1

[battlekow]

Isn't Alonso also supposed to be falling due to a perceived increase in his bonus demands?

[colbyjack]

That's a good point X, I guess I was just trying to point out that most to all teams have guys like Alonso and Wallace ranked ahead of Smoak at this point in time, and while those two sluggers are plenty good, Smoak just doesn't seem to have the luster he had entering the season, or even the luster he had after the summer of 2006 when he was considered to be one of the top prospects on the Cape after his freshman year (and the league MVP).

 

One more note, watching Stephen Drew and even Max Scherzer of the D-Backs this most recent Brewers series it reminded me how hit and miss Scott Boras clients can be given the amount of money it takes to get them in the fold. Both of those young men obviously could become a lot better than what they've been up to this point in time, but recently it seems as though you had better be as close to sure as possible that a Boras advisee is as close to perennial All-Star ready if you're going to go through the hassle of drafting them and eventually signing them via the draft. Of course the situations of players like Arod and Kenny Rogers have left somewhat of a black mark on Boras' reputation (not really, because he'll be just fine), but it does suggest that just because you pass on a Boras client doesn't mean you're necessarily doing a bad thing talent-wise.

 

Of course you have to make sure you make the right pick (attention Pirates).

[battlekow]

Colby, do you think anyone other than Alvarez is worth the money among Boras kids?

[Bambis Bombers]

Keith Law's June 4 ESPN Insider blog entry, he mentions the Brewers are considering C Jason Castro at 16, with the disclaimer that the Brewers are more secretive about their preferences than any other club.

He also mentions that Seattle may a deal in place with Tanner Scheppers after their medical advisors gave the all clear on his right shoulder.

He expects the Blue Jays to take Lawrie or Wallace at 17

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

One more note, watching Stephen Drew and even Max Scherzer of the D-Backs this most recent Brewers series it reminded me how hit and miss Scott Boras clients can be given the amount of money it takes to get them in the fold.

 

Eh, I dunno. The total value of both of their contracts was somewhere in the neighborhood of $11 mil. If you factor in the slot money they would've had to pay whoever else they might've drafted, you're looking at a total extra expense less than the Brewers atrocious 1 year gamble on Eric Gagne.

 

I think the really smart organizations recognize that gambling on a potential 6 cost-controlled years with the very best draft prospects is a much better value than the immediate gratification free agent signings of veterans of dubious quality.

 

I also don't know if you've picked the two best ponies to make this case. Drew has been disappointing, but far from terrible. If you factor in contract and everything else, I'd take Scherzer over anyone in the Brewers org other than Gallardo. There have got to be total bust Boras advisees that slid down in the draft and got huge contracts. I can't think of any offhand, but...

 

Anyway, it's all pretty much a moot point. This is all basically about whether your team takes its marching orders from the commish's office like good little soldiers. We're one of the teams that does, and probably always will. I think that's unfortunate, but there's nothing any of us can do about it. I'm just really glad Jack Z. has been able to do so well picking with signability as a handicap every year. Just look at the Pirates for if you want to see exactly how badly that plan can go.

[Bambis Bombers]

According the BP's Kevin Goldstein, Buster Posey is looking for a $12 million deal. In light of this news, the Rays are now leaning toward Tim Beckham unless Posey's salary demands drop considerably.

[lovehate]

Bringing up Gagne's contract? The Brewers are in kind of a "win now" mode. After losing Cordero, you have to take a chance on someone who has been there, or leave it to the scrap heap of the world. I've got no problem with Gagne's one year deal, I'd like to know what happened to the loan Gerry Colangelo(sp) got from MLB to build a Yankee killer. It must be nice to get a bail out when you're in one of the richest cities in the world.

[JoeHova]

I think Brawndo's point (which I agree with 100%) is that it is smarter to gamble money on the draft than on scrap-heap vets because the pay-offs can be a lot bigger and because the actual money (say, $5 mill for a Boras guy vs. $3 mill for a non-Boras guy) you're talking about is something close to a pittance in pro sports terms. If even a few of your "gambles" pay off, you're ahead of the game, because an average player on the FA market tends to get somewhere from $6 mill to $12 mill per year. Thus, the first 3 cost controlled years of even an average player are worth far more to a team than that $2 million difference in bonus.

 

I mean, look at the Pirates. Last year they went cheap and took a scrub reliever #4 overall (though he didn't look like a scrub at the time, he wasn't the best player left on the board by a long-shot). However, they then traded for Matt Morris and his $9 million 2008 salary. Wouldn't they have been better off biting the bullet and paying Matt Wieters the extra $3.5 million he was asking for and possibly getting their catcher of the future, rather than blowing that $3.5 million and much more on a washed up pitcher who had been on a downward slide for years?

[Never Outhustled]

I mean, look at the Pirates. Last year they went cheap and took a scrub reliever #4 overall (though he didn't look like a scrub at the time, he wasn't the best player left on the board by a long-shot). However, they then traded for Matt Morris and his $9 million 2008 salary. Wouldn't they have been better off biting the bullet and paying Matt Wieters the extra $3.5 million he was asking for and possibly getting their catcher of the future, rather than blowing that $3.5 million and much more on a washed up pitcher who had been on a downward slide for years?

 

Or the Pirates could have drafted laPorta, signed him for slot, and he might be in the Majors today. As Patrick said: Of course you have to make sure you make the right pick (attention Pirates).

[colbyjack]

Thanks X. I'm not saying you should avoid Boras clients, but it's not guaranteed that you're going to strike it rich if you do select one of those players. They're far from sure things, just like any other player. I have always contended that you need to take the right player in any and all situations, and personally I don't get bent out of shape when I see team X passing on player Y.

[splitterpfj]

Tampa Bay says it's Tim Beckham at #1 overall.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080605&content_id=2844900&vkey=draft2008&fext=.jsp

[patrickgpe]

baseball america's final mock draft, lawrie going #16.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/mock-draft/2008/266271.html

[Bambis Bombers]

The note accompanying the Brewer pick in the final BA mock draft mentions Wallace or Friederich as alternatives if Lawrie goes earlier. No mention of Castro, which seemed to be the hot rumor yesterday.

[Bambis Bombers]

The final MLB.com mock draft has the Brewers selecting Castro. Lawrie is projected to go 10 to the Astros. Here's what they had to say about the Brewers mock selection:

 

16. Milwaukee Brewers: Jason Castro, C, Stanford

They'd love to have someone drop, but barring that, there's an interesting mix of Brett Wallace, Anthony Hewitt, maybe even Zach Collier. With this landscape, though, the left-handed-hitting college catcher gets the nod.

Last projection: Brett Lawrie

[Oldcity]

What's with BA saying the consensus top choice among college closers is Cashner? Until I read that, I thought Fields was the consensus choice.

[Bambis Bombers]

Keith Law has posted his final mock draft on ESPN. While he has the Brewers selecting Jason Castro, his comments indicate he really does not know what the Brewers are going to do:

 

16. Milwaukee -- Jason Castro, C, Stanford

The Brewers never tell anyone what they're doing; they won't even confirm that there's a draft on Thursday. Lawrie and Hewitt are possibilities here.

 

 

He has Blue Jays selecting Wallace at 17, Lawrie sliding to Arizona at 26 and SS Casey Kelly sliding out of the first round.

[Hart Of Milwaukee]

BA also has Weeks at 12 going to Oakland, I like him but that just seems about 10 picks too early. This would be a typical Billy Beane move. Also, Colbyjack whats wrong with Scherzer the guy has a 2.15 minor league era and even lower major league one so far. I know his ceiling isn't considered to be a #1, but his production has been great on all levels so far. However, I do agree with you on Drew I never liked him from the get go.

[Bambis Bombers]

Here is the long awaited final mock draft by Perfect Game's Patrick Ebert. He has Brewers picking BF.net fave Brett Lawrie.

[Madtown Bomber]

On the Brewers end it is so hard to wonder just what they are going to do. Would it surprise any of you if they took 6 hs kids in their first picks? It wouldn't to me. I could see them doing the opposite also. I think depending on how Jack and Doug rate their system is how they will attack this draft. What happens here is still a question mark and we are about 2 hours until they select in round 1.

[bball123h2]

I'm guessing you'll see a good blend of HS, high-ceiling types and of college, quick path to majors types.

[Madtown Bomber]

Damn you Colby...haha Shooter Hunt, I am telling you!!!

 

No Colby it is a good draft, there are going to be a lot of picks that will screw up the draft. Posey to the Giants sounds good in theory but I know the Giants are VERY high on Sandoval and Witter at the catching position so Beckham might be the guy. Who knows. I can't wait now.

[And That]

Here is the long awaited final mock draft by Perfect Game's Patrick Ebert. He has Brewers picking BF.net fave Brett Lawrie.

 

The kiss of death.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Callis says (in the Blue Jays comment) that Lawrie doesn't make it past the Brewers, and that seems true to me, but I may simply be swayed by all the Lawrie love on here these days. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

With the Twins and Dodgers immediately ahead of the Brewers, I expect the Brewers war room to be tense when 14 hits, particularly if Lawrie and Hicks, and to some extent Friedrich, are still around as predicted in the BA mock...I'd expect both the Twins and Dodgers to be looking at the same guys as Milwaukee, just based on their histories. Though the Twins do seem to look for different things in position players in many respects....

[Madtown Bomber]

Take it for what is worth. I just heard on the XM Baseball Show that the Brewers are leaning towards a guy named Ryan Perry, live armed RHP from Arizona. I can't say I know much about him other the what I have been able to find in the last minute of so.

[battlekow]

Perry threw a couple 100mph fastballs with everyone watching, and he apparently has the potential for three plus pitches. I think his fastball is pretty straight though.