I Don't Care What The Cubs Do Anymore (Mostly/Sorta)

[SeriesFinale]

I wasn't.

[Glennron]

The first time all year I was rooting for the Cubs, and Zambrano was on the mound http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif. I'll root for the Cardinals over the Cubs if/when the Brewers pass up St. Louis.

 

 

[logan82]

Who wasn't rooting for the Cubs tonight?

I wasn't.

[owbc]

I was pulling for the Cardinals, although the ideal scenario would have been a 15-inning game with a final score of 14-13.

[Tbadder]

I think you've got to root for the Cubs. The Crew simply isn't as good as the Cubs. They'll get hot again down the road and lengthen out their lead again, but the Cards could tumble (given their starters I find this unlikely, so I think it'll be a dogfight the rest of the season with the Cards). GO CUBBIES!

[bigredrobbo]

I think you've got to root for the Cubs. The Crew simply isn't as good as the Cubs. They'll get hot again down the road and lengthen out their lead again, but the Cards could tumble (given their starters I find this unlikely, so I think it'll be a dogfight the rest of the season with the Cards). GO CUBBIES!

According to John Kruk.

 

I, for one, don't agree that the Crew isn't as good as the Cubs. I didn't think so when we were 8 1/2 back and I don't think so now.

[naivin]

At the moment I still agree the Cubs are better. If a certain large man currently residing in Cleveland joins the Brewers however, I'm not sure that doesn't change things fairly drastically.

[razzzorsharp]

At the moment I still agree the Cubs are better. If a certain large man currently residing in Cleveland joins the Brewers however, I'm not sure that doesn't change things fairly drastically.

Drew Caray won't do all that much...

 

I do think the Cubs are better as well as playing better as a team. Let's not forget that they have had some injury issues as well.

[Tbadder]

Yeah, I think it's close enough between the Cubs and Crew that one truly horrific injury could tip the balance.

[jhart05]

Nope.

 

I wasn't cheering for the Cubs when this thread started and I will still never cheer for them.

 

I'd rather see it come down to the Crew and Cards for the division and wild card.

[Mike2k33]

I watched the Cubs/Cards game yesterday and was completely torn on who I wanted to win. I didn't really have any emotion either way when the Cards came back. I guess I just look at it like we're gaining on someone as long as the Brewers win.

[rluzinski]

I think Brewer fans are kidding themselves if they think that the Cubs and Brewers have been close so far this year, performance-wise. The Brewers have outscored their opponents by 5 runs this year. The Cubs? 97. The Cubs are projected to finish with around 6 or 7 more wins (depending on what system you use), which is a a huge margin.

 

And the notion that a Zambrano injury or a Sabathia trade should be expected to make up that 6 or 7 win edge in half a season is WAY off, IMO. For instance, Sabathia is worth around .1 wins per average length start over Bush. That's assuming a 3.5 ERA for Sabathia and a 4.75 ERA over Bush. Over 15 starts and assuming that Bush can still be of use to the Brewers somewhere else, you are still talking about maybe 2 extra wins. The Cubs' replacement for Zambrano would likely be worse but you still might only be talking about 2-3 wins.

 

And major injury to a Cub or a big mind-season trade acquisition by the Brewers will certainly raise the odds for the Crew to win the division but they would still be the clear underdogs. While it's certainly not wrong to root for the division championship over the wild card, I prefer to root for the path of least resistance. In my opinion, that's the wild card. Even if the Cubs and Brewers were tied in the division right now, I'd still probably think that, though.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I'm bothered by the run differential, but I can't and won't root for the cubs to win anything. Silly? Maybe. I can't help it, and I don't care. Are the chances of winning the WC better than the division? yes, obviously. I just can't, under any circumstance, root for the Cubs. If it's the last day of the season, and they're playing the team we're tied for the WC with........then maybe.

[rluzinski]

If it's the last day of the season, and they're playing the team we're tied for the WC with........then maybe.

 

So you're saying... there's a chance! Yes!!

[logan82]

I think Brewer fans are kidding themselves if they think that the Cubs and Brewers have been close so far this year, performance-wise

 

I have to agree. However, like I was saying in the judging by wins and losses thread, I believe that a team can end up with a record worse or better than their actual talent. I am cheering for the Brewers to play over their head and the Cubs to play worse than their's. If we can hang close, we have plenty of games against both the Cubs and Cards to make up ground. Add to that the Cards and Cubs play each other 9 more times after this weekend and I see lots of potential to make up games. I don't care how foolish it is, I will not cheer for the Cubs.

 

If it's the last day of the season, and they're playing the team we're tied for the WC with........then maybe.

 

The only wild card team's hopes the Cubs have the chance to ruin is ours. We play the Cubs the last weekend of the season.

[Ennder]

The Cubs came out hot with most of their players overproducing, the Brewers came out cold with a lot of players slumping. Since about mid May the two teams have produced at about the same level. The Cubs talent level wasn't higher than ours entering the season in my opinion. Gallardo going down hurt more than Soriano so right now we probably are a tad behind them in talent but if we trade for Sabathia it is back even.

[rotoherb]

Just looking at the Cubs run differential for the season to date doesn't tell the whole story. Take a look at it month by month:

 

April: +52

May: +39

June: +11

 

Why is it trending downward? Part of it is Soriano getting injured during June, but an even bigger part of it may be the two rookies that the Cubs have in their lineup. Check out what Fukudome and Soto have done this year:

 

Fukudome

April: 837 OPS

May: 792

June: 789

 

Soto

April: 1060 OPS

May: 868

June: 747

 

These are two guys that other teams had really never seen before. Is it possible that opposing teams now have scouting reports on them and have made adjustments? These are also two players who don't have a past performance to base a solid second half prediction. We can't just say "Oh, June was just a slump and they'll break out of it". What is closer to the truth, April or June? I'd be willing to bet that neither hit's as well as he did in April for the rest of the season.

 

Something else that needs to be watched is what's going on with Carlos Marmol. Here are his stats since June 15th:

 

8GP 6IP 5H 7BB 6K 10ER 15.00 ERA

 

It's possible that he's just going through a rough period and will turn it around, but numbers like that over three weeks may be indicitive of a hidden injury. If he can't turn it around then that would greatly affect the Cubs for the second half of the season.

 

I can't argue that the Cubs haven't played better than the Brewers up to this point or that the Brewers haven't gotten a little lucky to even be this close to the Cubs. But the season is just too fluid to assume that because the Cubs outperformed them to this point that they must outperform them from now on. Both teams will have different rosters by the trade deadline and each team will likely have it's own set of injuries to deal with. I agree that the Cubs have a better chance to win the division than the Brewers, but I don't believe that it's as hopeless as your posts make it out to be.

[Fear The Chorizo]

About a month ago, Russ wrote:

 

"Until the Brewers can close the gap to around 4 games (and there's at least a reasonable chance of that happening), if the Cubs are playing the Cardinals or any other team ahead of the Brewers in the wild card race, I'll be rooting for Soriano and Zambrano to shut em' down!!!

 

Does that get me excommunicated? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Will I get a big red "C" painted on my chest and be forced to wear a foam Cubs finger? "

 

So now the Brewers are effectively tied in the loss column with the Cardinals for the wild card lead, both teams being further ahead of the rest of the NL wild card probables, and sitting within 3.5 games of the Cubs...oh, and they just happened to pick up C.C. Sabathia to hopefully more than plug the gaping statistical hole in their rotation that Gallardo's unfortunate injury had left.

 

I guess you don't get excommunicated now unless you continue to insist to root for the Cubs (at least until the AS break, when they're not really playing teams considered in the WC race).

 

This thread is really entertaining to read through in its entirety right now - here's to hoping that the Brewers continue to play good baseball the rest of the season. It may prove to be true that the Brewers can't catch the Cubs this regular season, but it sure didn't take them very long to get right back in their rearview mirror.

[rluzinski]

I guess you don't get excommunicated now unless you continue to insist to root for the Cubs (at least until the AS break, when they're not really playing teams considered in the WC race).

 

Considering the Brewers' current situation, the Cardinals are the only team I'd root for the Cubs to beat. Maybe the Mets as well but the Cubs don't play them until the second to last series of the season, so it really doesn't matter anyway.

[ELCABALLO45]

Im not a big fan of run differential because last time I checked MLB is still deciding who makes the playoffs by W and L.

 

And we are 3.5 GB, anything is possible

[rluzinski]

Im not a big fan of run differential because last time I checked MLB is still deciding who makes the playoffs by W and L.

 

If I want to know what team made the playoffs, I look at their win/loss record. If I want to know the collective true talent of a team (or my best guess at it), I look at many things. Run differential is one of those things.

 

At any given point of the season, a team's win/loss record does not always perfectly match their actual true talent. That's true after 1 game, 5 games, 50 games and sometimes... even 162 games.

And we are 3.5 GB, anything is possible

 

Isn't that true of every team in the league right now?

[ELCABALLO45]

Calm down, Im just pointing out that the whole Run differential thing is overrated IMO.

[rluzinski]

Calm down, Im just pointing out that the whole Run differential thing is overrated IMO.

 

I didn't mean to suggest that it's the final word but the difference between the Cubs' and Brewers' run differential is SO dramatic that it can't be dismissed very easily. That said, I don't think it accurately measures the true difference in talent between the two teams (I don't think the Cubs are THAT much better than the Brewers).

[Glennron]

Calm down, Im just pointing out that the whole Run differential thing is overrated IMO.

You're right, he sounded furious while typing his response.

I felt pretty sick rooting for the Cubs this weekend, but now that the Brewers are in the lead (by .001 % points) of the wild card I'll focus on rooting against the Cubbies when they play the Cardinals http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[TooLiveBrew]

last time I checked MLB is still deciding who makes the playoffs by W and L.

 

That's a tired line. Rluz tries to post some insightful stuff here, and routinely gets greeted with criticism. It's like there are some people that think objective analysis is people being ridiculous about the Brewers (not pointing just at you, ELCABALLO). Some posters here appear to take great joy in seeing projections fail. They're projections. All you can do in baseball (imho) is try to target certain ranges into which teams/players fall.

 

For example, it's unwise to say, "Prince Fielder is a 50 HR hitter". Instead, I'd describe him as someone that will hit in the 35-60 HR range in any given season. Same with teams. All you can say about the Cubs is that they have the talent to win 85-95 games in 2008, and to get more precise than that imo is where people who know their way around the numbers better (like Russ) come in.

 

No, Run Differential doesn't decide the outcomes, but you'd think someone providing the great resources that rluz does would be greeted with a bit more appreciation.

 

 

These are two guys that other teams had really never seen before. Is it possible that opposing teams now have scouting reports on them and have made adjustments?

 

I like the observation, rotoherb. That's very likely the case, though fluctuation from month to month is common. It could be scouting (I think that's played a big role), or it could be that they just randomly have fluctuated in a manner that appears to show decline. I hope it's the scouting. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

Something else that needs to be watched is what's going on with Carlos Marmol.

 

The over-use of Marmol has been talked about at Brewerfan's forums for a while now. It's interesting to see some results that might fall in line with that. Guess we'll see in the second half.