I Don't Care What The Cubs Do Anymore (Mostly/Sorta)

[dlk9s]

What teams on that list are you actually scared of right now? I really don't expect St. Louis or Florida to end up that many games over .500. Besides the Division leaders, maybe only Atlanta, New York, and Houston? I'd even expect Houston to fall some more when Berkman comes back down to earth.

Going on the assumption that the Brewers remain in the Wild Card hunt, I expect it to be a race with the two teams out of NY, Atlanta, and Philly that don't win the East and maybe the Dodgers if they can get their hitting figured out (this is a big maybe).

I think St. Louis will gradually fall, and both Florida and Houston's pitching won't hold up.

 

[sheethead]

Innings, innings, innings, pour on the innings on the Cubs pen.

I would love to see a gassed Marmol come September. And I would bet Wood isn't going to last all year.

 

[rluzinski]

"What teams on that list are you actually scared of right now? I really don't expect St. Louis or Florida to end up that many games over .500. Besides the Division leaders, maybe only Atlanta, New York, and Houston? I'd even expect Houston to fall some more when Berkman comes back down to earth. "

 

Using the BP projections, we can assume that the Mets and DBacks will win their divisions and the Cards, Forida and Houston to fade. With those assumtions (and at this point, they are only educated guesses), we are left with the Phillies, Dodgers, Braves and Cardinals as the main contenders.

[TooLiveBrew]

Sometimes I get annoyed with Brian and Bill, but then I listen to Bob Brenly and I feel better about the Brewers announcers.

 

Totally agree. Brenly & "Len" are horrible. I know it sounds like me just being a 'h8a', but seriously... those are two of the worst in MLB.

[Darnell Junior]

I don't think we can assume that the Cubs will play 88 win ball the rest of the way. That projection is based on a 162 game season, filled with peaks and valleys. Who's to say they havent just been playing hot this entire season, and have nowhere to go but down? It sure looks a lot like that, the way they're pitching over their heads right now. If they hit that 5 or 6 game losing streak that most teams seem to go through in a season a 6 game lead will turn into a 2 or 3 game lead pretty quickly. I'm more worried about how we're playing anyways. We have gained a game in the last 15 if i remember correctly, but I feel so much better about our chances at the division. I'll be the first to admit that the wildcard is a more attainable goal at this point, but to cash in the chips for the division with 100 games to play seems a little premature to me, especially with so many against the Cubs to be played.

[cubfan1126]

I know the players are different, but before you guys start counting too heavily on "those games left to be played", check the record. (especially for those of you that like to use the phrase, They're still the Cubs.) The Cubs record at Miller Park is 31-26.

[TooLiveBrew]

Are you attempting to say the Cubs' 31-26 mark has anything to do with the games that haven't been played yet?

[cubfan1126]

TLB

I wasn't talking to you.

I'm talking to the people on your site that don't use logic.

[rluzinski]

I don't think we can assume that the Cubs will play 88 win ball the rest of the way. That projection is based on a 162 game season, filled with peaks and valleys. Who's to say they havent just been playing hot this entire season

 

Again, that's the gambler's fallacy. By all rights, I should actually be combining the preseason projections with what they've done this year and slightly adjust up that 88 win, win%. I'm actually treating EVERYTHING they've done this year as a fluke.

[logan82]

cubfan1126 wrote:

The Cubs record at Miller Park is 31-26.

Different players.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[SeriesFinale]

Sometimes I get annoyed with Brian and Bill, but then I listen to Bob Brenly and I feel better about the Brewers announcers.

 

Totally agree. Brenly & "Len" are horrible. I know it sounds like me just being a 'h8a', but seriously... those are two of the worst in MLB.

Not to get too far off topic, but thirded: their homerism is almost to the Southsiders' level (right now they're on par with Florida's awful broadcasting team) and Kasper reminds me of a yappy little dog.

[TooLiveBrew]

Oh...my... god... I'd somehow forgotten the ChiSox 'announcers'. I feel embarassed, yet pleased, since clearly my mind had succeeded in blocking them out.

 

We need an FtJ flowchart on this... ChiSox<<<<<

[obobo55]

Chicago's record against these 5 teams (AZ, CO, LA, SD, PIT) is 26-6.

 

Brewer's are 6-3 versus the same teams.

 

Cubs are 13-16 against the rest of their schedule while the Crew is 26-25.

 

23 games that the Brewers have to do real well to make up ground. That Chicago have already played 12 games against the Pirates gives me some hope (we have played 3). Need to pummel the Rockies this weekend to start.

[GenoSeligPrieb]

Jumping in a bit late here, but...

 

"If there's something I've learned over the past 100 years, it's that the Cubs find have a knack for choking. I know, different personnel mean different teams, but if I'm a Cub fan, I guess I'd feel a bit nervous about printing playoff tickets until at least the end of July. "

 

Thing is, Brian, these aren't the same ol' tough-luck, poor ol' Cubbies anymore. They're like the Red Sox and Yankees now.

 

Throw wads of cash at the top free agent on the market? Soriano and Fukudome...check and check. Lure the most expensive managerial candidates in the game? Baker and Piniella...check and check. Absorb major salary by trading crap to a poor team for a superstar? Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez...check and check. Retain their own free agents with exorbitant contracts? Zambrano, Lee, Ramirez...check, check and check. Lots of media love, and starting All-Stars at pretty much every position? Yep. Years and years of sellout crowds? Of course. Whiny sense of entitlement by most of its fanbase and local media? Lately, yeah. Some guys are predicting a key Gallardo-esque injury to a pivotal Cub could change things. Wanna bet they just go out and raid a poor team for a replacement?

 

Seriously, all these years, if it wasn't the Brewers, I was OK with the Cubs winning, but the Fukudome signing probably put it over the top for me. They're way ahead in first place with a great, VERY expensive manager...a real leader, not a clown like Ned. They'll be in the playoffs pretty much indefinitely, like Boston and New York have been in the AL East. Jack Brickhouse wouldn't recognize the team these days.

 

Our ONLY hope against the Cubs is that Sam Zell sells them off to an enterprise that decides to cut expenses. That was the only thing that stopped the Braves. Otherwise, it's Wild Card time for a while.

[Janelle Larson]

For what it's worth, $10M for an expected average closer (who in his prime, as the greatest closer ever, signed for 2/19M) is more"buying a championship" behavior than 12M/yr (6 this year) for an expected .400 OBP 25HR RF with great defense. Obviously the Cubs spend more money in total, but I don't see how the Fukudome deal is so out of line.

 

Neither Ramirez nor Lee were superstars nor did they have a major salary attached (5/$31.5M combined). But yeah, they were good young players for nothing. Now, so what? If there's a Bill Hall for Nate McLouth deal on the table do you feel guilty and want the Brewers to throw in more players to make it even?

 

You mentioned Dusty Baker. That's enough evidence that a big name manager and big price tag means very little.

 

Everything else..meh. The Cubs have money, so they SHOULD spend it. Better the money go towards players than the owner's pockets.

[endaround]

Lee wasn't a superstar? By what measure? And how you don't mention Soriano is awfully funny.

[jjfanec]

Neither Ramirez nor Lee were superstars nor did they have a major salary attached (5/$31.5M combined). But yeah, they were good young players for nothing. Now, so what? If there's a Bill Hall for Nate McLouth deal on the table do you feel guilty and want the Brewers to throw in more players to make it even?

Yes the Cubs made nice trades to get those guys but they needed the deep pockets to be able to sign them after their old contracts ran out. Ramirez and Lee are making a heck of a lot more than what they were making. The Brewers simply could not afford to pay guys like Z, Soriano, Lee, Ramirez, etc even if they made nice trades to get them. The Cubs have seven guys who make over 7 million a year (and four making over 13 million) and they make that for a couple more years. Gagne got a big contract but for one year so it is not the same. The reality is the Cubs dont really have to worry about losing players they develop to free agency like the Brewers do. They can afford to sign them long term. They Brewers could lock a lot of their guys up but cripple themselves financially.

 

On a different note, there are some things to suggest to me the Cubs will begin to come back to earth a little. I do think their lineup is really good so they wont completely collapse or anything and their last two guys in the pen Marmol and Wood are looking very good. However, their rotation is just not that good. Z and Dempster are pitching great, but even the biggest Cubs fan can't expect Dempster to keep pitching this way. After that the just dont have much to be excited about. Lilly will pitch a good game, then just get rocked, Gallagher is okay, and Marquis just isnt that good. 3-5 are not that impressive and will bring them back to the pack. Add that to the fact that a guy like Soto who carried them is coming back to earth..214, .292, .429 over the last month.

 

[Janelle Larson]

Lee wasn't a superstar? By what measure? And how you don't mention Soriano is awfully funny.

You tell me. What do you consider "superstar"? Lee hit .271/.379/.508 27 HR 92 RBIs the year he was traded. Nice numbers, but not my opinion of superstar.

Why would I mention Soriano? It was said the Cubs threw "wads of cash" at him. And they did. Nothing to correct or argue.

 

[TooLiveBrew]

The Cubs have money, so they SHOULD spend it. Better the money go towards players than the owner's pockets.

 

This is a great point. I hate the Cubs, and part of the reason is that they have the ability to take financial risks the Brewers could only dream of doing.

 

I would like to clarify that their moronic fans (note that I'm not saying all Cubs fans are moronic) are far & away the #1 reason I hate the Cubs.

[SeriesFinale]

Well, all the strong statistical evidence aside, I'm starting to believe they've got the fates on their side this year, too.

 

The Brewers get a big win to take a road series and then a weak one-out homerun from the 2008 version of Jim Edmonds ties the game for the Cubs in the bottom of the 9th? So that one Mr. Reed Johnson can get hit by a ball to walk in the winning run in the 11th?

 

Ridiculous.

[Klements Bratwurst]

I am starting to believe more in RLuz's philosophy a bit more. I think we need to make a "wild card watch" thread. I feel pretty good about hanging around and catching the Cards and the Marlins. The Cubs may end up winning the division given the crazy ways that they are winning. I am worrying about what the Cards and Marlins do. We only have to hop over two teams with a lot of season left.

 

4.5 games back in the Wild Card!!! Plus look at the distance now of some of the teams below us that do scare me (LA Dodgers, Atlanta, Houston, NY Mets). Until I see it in August, I can't imagine the Marlins and Cards continuing to play this well. If the Brewers can swing a trade or two for a bat and an arm, and with Riske coming back into the bullpen, I think we might have something cooking.

 

Regarding winning the Wild Card, it would be real sweet to beat the Cubs in the playoffs! Imagine that atmosphere!!!

[derflotr]

EVERYTHING is going the Cubs' way right now. Read this excerpt from rotoworld concerning the stiff competition from the Braves in the late innings:

 

"Why in the world is Mike Gonzalez still in Triple-A? With Rafael Soriano still unavailable, the Braves might as well have Richmond's bullpen at the moment. Boyer has been solid, but he's a seventh-inning guy, not a closer. He allowed Jim Edmonds' game-tying homer in the ninth today. Acosta then pitched a scoreless 10th, but was brutal in the 11th. A walk, a passed ball, an intentional walk and a single loaded the bases with no outs, causing the Braves to pull him and bring in Ridgway, a guy who was just called up this week and figured to go back to the minors whenever it was that the Braves finally deemed Gonzalez ready. He hit Reed Johnson with the only pitch he threw, ending the game."

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

I was gonna post in the Soriano thread about how dumb the Cubs are for calling up Hoffpauir instead of Murton (I mean, what do they have against that guy anyway? Whose daughter did he sleep with?).

 

I got halfway through my post, and I lost heart. Sure, Hoffpauir has drawn all of 2 walks all season in the minors, but I'm sure he'll somehow hit 370 / 380 / 550 until Soriano is back anyway. Everything the Cubs do this season, no matter how dumb it is (Edmonds over Felix Pie? Ha Ha Ha Ha...oh, wait, what?...Edmonds is hitting again?...Gotta be kidding me...), works like a charm. No, scratch that, like a fairy dust-laden catchless magic monkey paw obtained from a genie-in-a-bottle.

[Janelle Larson]

Edmonds' numbers with the Cubs are about the same as his 2007 number. I'm not justifying Edmonds over Pie, but I don't know why people thought he would hit .178 all season.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

Edmonds last 4 seasons, by OPS+:

 

170, 137, 110, 88

 

Can't help noticing a trend there. I suppose there's no reason that the next data point in that sequence necessarily has to be quite as bad as the 38 OPS+ he was putting up in San Diego, but still... after today's dramatics, his Cub OPS+ is around 100, or right at league average. I stand by my "gotta be kidding me".