I Don't Care What The Cubs Do Anymore (Mostly/Sorta)

[T B0NE 10]

On ESPN they said the Cubs would run away with the division with only St. Louis possibly keeping it interesting.

 

Wow. I think St Louis is the 4th (possibly 5th best team) in the division.

The dunderheads on ESPN aren't paid to think. They are paid to talk.

I really wish there could be a true sports network to watch....ESPN is becoming crap.

I currently dont get FSN outside of Brewers games, I will be in the short term future though. Is it better? From what I see during Brewers rainouts and commercials it looks awesome.

 

[whizkid]

I've been rooting for and against baseball teams for 53 seasons and the number of times who I rooted for actually influenced the outcome is exactly 0. Therefore I will continue to root against the Cubs with all my soul because it's fun and I'll let what happens happen, because I can't do a damn thing about it.

[rluzinski]

I'm liking the, "I don't care what the odds are, the Brewers will find a way", vibe. Not exactly enjoying the, "if the odds say that the Brewers are the underdogs they are wrong!" sub-tone, however. One out of two ain't bad, I guess.

Wait a second, when it get's down to 4 games, you're going to start rooting for a Brewers Division title, but 'till that time you're pulling for the cubs to beat anyone that is ahead of the Crew in the Wild Card standings.

 

I will root for whatever outcome I think gives the Brewers the best chance of making the playoffs. Right now, I think it's the outcome that gives them the clearest path to the wildcard. As others have pointed out, though, there are 100 games left. Circumstances can change.

[pebadger]

In the course of rooting against the Cubs tonight and throughout the season, while promising myself I won't get too upset if they win, I did note there are a lot of Valtrex ads during their game broadcasts

[Fatter than Joey]

the number of times who I rooted for actually influenced the outcome is exactly 0.

 

How can you claim to know this?

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

Every single team he's pulled for has lost.

[logan82]

Brawndo[/b] the Thirst Mutilator]Every single team he's pulled for has lost.

But if every team he has rooted for has lost doesn't that mean that he has a negative effect on the team he rooted for?

[Fatter than Joey]

We should trade Whizkid to the NSBB

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

Hmm...you're probably right. Can't believe I didn't think of that. Sometimes the urge to make a funny joke overwhelms my best scientific instincts.

 

It actually wouldn't mean that he was having a negative effect. Even 100% correlation does not equal causation. It could be that the team losing is somehow causing him to cheer for them. Or, it could be that some unidentified third variable is causing both him to root for the team and the team to lose. Like maybe he used to go out with a witch or something, and she's cursed him and the teams he cheers for. Wouldn't really be his fault, unless he was a real grade-A jerk to the witch.

[brewjihad]

Brawndo[/b] the Thirst Mutilator]Every single team he's pulled for has lost.

But if every team he has rooted for has lost doesn't that mean that he has a negative effect on the team he rooted for?

Every team he has ever rooted for has a record of exactly .500. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

[HurricaneBraun]

CUBS LOSE

 

6 GB NOW

[rluzinski]

Cubs lose, 6 games back!

 

 

 

Hey, the Padres have almost no chance at the wildcard http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Scrubbies lost. Finally.

[bigredrobbo]

Never give up, never surrender!

[logan82]

I get a laugh knowing that if I want to know where we stand compared to the Cubs all I have to do is visit a thread entitled "I don't care what the Cubs do anymore."http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

That is pretty funny. Russ started a very interesting, lively thread here. Law of unintended consequences hard at work.

[Oldcity]

About frickin' time!

[endaround]

The Brewers are still closer to last place than they are to first.

[lcbj68c]

The Brewers are still closer to last place than they are to first.

I realize this was tongue in cheek, but I think that is evidence that the division is that damn good.

[rluzinski]

I realize this was tongue in cheek, but I think that is evidence that the division is that damn good.

 

It doesn't help when the Cubs have the best record in baseball, though. With their loss, they are now on pace for "only" 103 wins! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Speaking of the wildcard (huh?), here's who BP things are the frontrunners for the wildcard and each team's projected win total. I've noted major injuries, since BP doesn't adjust for them (as they could/should):

 

Mets: 91.4

Brewers: 88.5 (lost Gallardo for year)

Phillies: 88.2

Dbacks: 86.8

Braves: 84.7 (lost Smoltz for year)

Dodgers: 84.0

Cardinals: 81.0

 

2 of the above teams will most likely win the West or East. I've trimmed off any teams that are projected to finish under .500. That's not to say that they have no chance at the wildcard but you have to draw the line somewhere. Also, I think you need to knock off a couple wins from the Brewers and Braves' projections (what Smoltz and Gallardo's injuries are going to cost their teams, very roughly).

 

Assuming the Mets and Dbacks win their division and adjusting the projections, we end up with:

 

Phillies: 88

Brewers: 87

Dodgers: 84

Braves: 83

Cards: 81

 

So, when Chicago plays the Phillies, Dodgers, Braves or Cards, root, root, roooot for the Cubbbbiessss. They've got 7 games against the Dodgers and Braves coming up, so you won't have to wait long!

[sheethead]

So, when Chicago plays the Phillies, Dodgers, Braves or Cards, root, root, roooot for the Cubbbbiessss. They've got 7 games against the Dodgers and Braves coming up, so you won't have to wait long!

 

I would gladly take a Dodger 4 game sweep this weekend. I refuse to root for the Cubs until I absolutely have to.

[lcbj68c]

I'd be interested in seeing the BP projections for the Rockies last season? Are those still in print or electronic media somwhere?

[rluzinski]

Why do people keep trying to compare the odds of:

 

Any team from any year in any division under any circumstances coming back from a large deficit to win their division

 

To:

 

The Brewers doing it this year in the NL Central

 

That's like saying: Winning the power Ball can't be THAT hard. Afterall, I know some guy who won a $10,000 on a scratch off, back in 99'.

 

Hell, if you just want to go all the way and say that every team in the Central still has even odds of winning the division, the Brewers have a 17% chance!

 

As for my "rooting for the wild card" scenario, I have to admit... it's partly tongue in cheek. The Brewers have pretty close to the same odds of making the wildcard as they do to winning the division. I'm not sure how much it matters who wins those Cubs vs. wildcard games, unless it's the Dodgers sweeping the Cubs or some other result involving a Cubs collapse.

[LUKE232323]

The point is it's too early to start rooting for the Cubs. Not everyone is a statistical robot when it comes to pulling for certain outcomes, much of the fun of sports is the emotional attachment to it. I don't care what all of these formulas and projections say, I am not going to root for the Cubs. You could tie me to a chair and pluck my eyebrows out, still wouldn't root for the Cubs.

[pitchleague]

So, when Chicago plays the Phillies, Dodgers, Braves or Cards, root, root, roooot for the Cubbbbiessss. They've got 7 games against the Dodgers and Braves coming up, so you won't have to wait long!

Of course, this assumes that the Brewers are still winning, too. If not, it's all for naught. But otherwise, you are right.