I Don't Care What The Cubs Do Anymore (Mostly/Sorta)

[rluzinski]

I thought you didn't care what they did. Sorry.

 

I looked.... by accident.

[Oldcity]

Ok, I still care. This is so annoying.

[HurricaneBraun]

Still 7 games back, ugh

 

I REALLY hate the Cubs.

[Mike2k33]

Resigning myself to Wild Card hopes would take something away from the rest of the season, for me. If others want to write off the Cubs as NL Central Champs the first week of June, that's cool. It's just not for me.

 

I know the odds, I just don't care about them as much as some.

 

We're in much better position than in other years, and I'm fine with that, for now. But that could just be our modest winning streak talking.

[danzig6767]

People can try and look for reasons to think the Cubs are overrated and due to come crashing back to reality, but so far in the NL

 

1st in runs scored

1st in batting average

1st in OBP

2nd in SLG

1st in OPS

2nd in walks taken

3rd in team ERA

 

Yea the Cubs have played a lot of home games and their schedule hasn't exactly been brutal, but they aren't 38-21 largely by semi-fluke via mainly just winning a ton of one run games. They are a really good baseball team and mix that with them having 7 games on us already, the odds are strongly against the Brewers catching them.

 

If the Cubs instead were one of those teams you tend to see every year that starts hot mainly by winning tons of one run games, i'd feel more confident that eventually those one run games with start turning into losses and their record will adjust accordingly. That's not the case though, they have scored 331 runs and only given up 238 while the Brewers are fortunate to have won more close games than not and are over .500 even though they've given up more runs than they've scored.

[berniebrewer4life]

To me the only stat that matters right now is the GB stat.

 

It's 7, maybe 6 after tonight.

 

With around 100 games left.

 

10 head-to-head, 7 at Miller Park.

 

Go for the Division Title, it is not out of reach. If the Wild Card falls into your lap, that's great.

I'm gonna turn 25 this september(a year after our WS team). I'd just like to see us in the playoffs for once. I don't care how we get there, as long as we get in. Once you are in, anything can happen.

[danzig6767]

Imh Lou Piniella is a vastly overrated manager. What did he do with the Rays? And if the answer is 'he didn't have much talent', then wouldn't his managerial success seem to be much more related to the players he's had?

 

I don't like Piniella largely because he puts runners in motion under the belief that it 'gets things going'. I think he does most of what Brewers fans hate about Yost, to be honest. Lou 'rides the hot hand' in terms of his RP, which leads to things like the relatively crazy workload he's thrust on his 'pen already.

 

If I had more time, I could elaborate more, but I just think Piniella is the perfect example of why managers in general get credit they don't deserve. He was a 'good'/'great' manager in Seattle, then a 'bad'/'subpar'/'average' manager in Tampa, and now he's back to being 'good'/'great'. Fans tend to evaluate a manager on his W-L record, which is like evaluating a single player on his team's W-L record.

 

Over the years, i've seen a fairly large amount of games in which Piniella was a manager. I never felt he was reckless in the amount of times he had runners trying to steal bases or do hit and runs. So far this year the Cubs have only attempted 50 stolen bases and 119 in all of last season. As for "riding the hot hands" of relief pitchers in close games, what managers don't do this? Every win is important for teams that are legit contenders, it's human nature for managers to bring in most the relief pitchers that are getting the job done vs bringing in guys who aren't as good. Look at the appearance totals for relief pitchers on teams who win more than they lose and in almost all cases, the best relief pitchers on those teams will pitch a lot because they are playing in so many games where they are trying to hold on to wins late vs being behind late in games so often

 

In regards to evaluating managers almost strictly by team records, i agree that can be very off base given no manager can win a lot of games with crappy talent and even poor managers can win a lot of games if they have lots of talent. Of all the major sports IMO, i think baseball managers have the least impact given the baseball is so much individual matchups that a manager has either very minimal impact on or no impact at all. Managers though do have to manage a bullpen properly and use good sense when make late game substitutions and that can impact a few games over the course of a season.

Back to Piniella. Whether he's overrated or not is up to individuals to decide, but i don't share your dislike of him and i'd be perfectly fine with him being the Brewers manager. The only beef i have with him is i think he can look pretty damn silly at times when a few times a year Lou gets into his over the top antics while arguing with an umpire. Then again, i think the vast majority of managers look like dorks when they get all crazy yelling at an umpire.

 

[Tbadder]

I swear guys, the Cubs aren't even worth thinking about. They won the division--so what. They're fans are impossible--so what. If they beat the curse--so what. I don't think they're even worth the effort I'm using to write this down--so I personally vow not to say another word, and I'd just encourage others not to waste their time either. Congrats to Chicago. DONE.

[bigredrobbo]

I can't do it - just can't. With every fiber of my being I hope the Cubs lose. I even hope for both teams in a spring-training intra-squad game to lose!

 

And, until we are mathematically eliminated from the division race with only the WC to play for, I don't see myself hoping they beat anyone.

 

But, hey, that's how I roll!

[FVBrewerFan]

7 games out with 100 to play, how in the world is the race over? We can try to overanalyze it with stats that usually don't take into account all variables, but the only stat that matters is that teams have won a division down by 7 games before. In fact, I wouldn't say it's common but I'm sure it's happened plenty of times in the modern era.

[jhart05]

I wouldn't say it's common but I'm sure it's happened plenty of times in the modern era.

 

 

Sept 12, 2007

NY Mets...83-62 (1st Place)

Philadelphia...76-69...7 GB

 

 

Sept 30, 2007

Philadelphia...89-73 (1st Place)

NY Mets...88-74...1 GB

 

 

Way too early to concede the division to the ScRubs.

[rluzinski]

There is a chance that the Brewers finish on a 104-0 run (the 163rd game comes from a 1 game playoff with the Cubs, after they finish 94-7). Some seem to think (and I could be wrong about this) that being able to pluck out examples of unlikely events occuring suggests that they weren't actually as unlikely as people thought. With 100+ years, dozens of teams and many different races, the unlikely is bound to occur from time to time. That fact does not make it any more likely that the Brewers can catch the Cubs, however.

 

I just wanted to know what kind of chance gets people excited. For some, the answer is "any" and there's nothing wrong with that. I envy you.

[fondybrewfan]

All I care about is getting to 90 wins, if we do that we have a pretty good shot at the wild card or a division title. We are 31-28 with 103 games to go. We would need to go 59-44 the rest of the way to get to 90 wins. The ways things are going now it seems possible to me.

[TooLiveBrew]

Back to Piniella. Whether he's overrated or not is up to individuals to decide, but i don't share your dislike of him and i'd be perfectly fine with him being the Brewers manager. The only beef i have with him is i think he can look pretty damn silly at times when a few times a year Lou gets into his over the top antics while arguing with an umpire. Then again, i think the vast majority of managers look like dorks when they get all crazy yelling at an umpire.

 

Last night's game in SD was a good example of this. Except this time, it was his own player. Marquis had just allowed a baserunner (can't recall if it was a single or BB), and here came Lou out of the dugout, gesturing for everyone to see - hands out as his side as if to say, 'What the heck?' He got to the mound, and you could read his lips as plain as this post -- "Throw some _____ strikes!"

 

Naturally, in response to the 'great motivator', Marquis promptly surrendered a single on the next pitch or two. What I hate is when Piniella pulls his bi-polar crap & then gets credit for 'inspiring the team!'

 

I think he's an average manager, but there are elements of his style that I'm very glad Ned doesn't have. To use SB attempts to see when he puts runners in motion is a tad misleading... most of what I've seen in watching the Cubs this year is via the hit-&-run. I think players are largely responsible for SB attempts.

 

 

As for "riding the hot hands" of relief pitchers in close games, what managers don't do this?

 

Does that mean I can't be critical of it? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[FVBrewerFan]

My point is I don't think the chance is that outlandish. The only way I'll be convinced otherwise is proof. I would imagine just about every year one or two divisions are won by teams that were 7 games out (or more) in June or later. But that's from memory, admitedly.

[jhart05]

I'm just pointing out that it's happened before, so there is a chance, however slim the odds may make it look, and however better the ScRubs look on paper or for that matter - in the field.

 

If/when the Crew is mathematically eliminated from the Division Title, then I'll start watching the Wild Card Race. As it is right now, it looks like the best record in the NL may come from the Central this year. If you play for the Division Title, but come up short, then the Wild Card will most likely fall into your lap.

 

I'm sure the players are still playing for the Division Title. They're not giving up on the Division, as a fan I'm not either.

 

 

 

I just wanted to know what kind of chance gets people excited. For some, the answer is "any" and there's nothing wrong with that. I envy you.

 

Yep, never give up, 'till the last out is recorded. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[rluzinski]

It's not just being 7 games back in June. It's being 7 games back in June against a team that was expected to be better than the Brewers before the season started and hasn't done anything to disprove that notion yet.... PLUS being 3.5 games back against two teams that the Brewers are probably better than but have gotten off to better stats, nonetheless.

 

Let's look at a wildly optimistic situation. We'll assume that the Cubs and Brewers are equal in collective talent (even though I see no way to justify that) and pretend that the Cards and Astros already have a 0% chance of winning. I'll even throw in that the Cubs road-heavy finish will cost them 2 extra wins (about 3 times larger than I think it should be). In that scenario, all the Brewers have to do is play 6 games better than the Cubs over the final 103 games and they will win the Central outright (and I'll adjust for the 10 head-to-head games).

 

So, I've been about as generous as I possibly could be. Simulate the season 50,000 times to account for sample uncertainty (random variance, luck, whatever you want to call it) and what do I get? 23%. Since I've been so generous to the Brewers, the true odds have to be well below that.

 

Is that worth rooting for? Up to you. I just think that fans should have some realistic expectations.

[Time for a Miller]

This really comes down to the definition of the word "root" for me. I do not think I can honestly root for the Cubs to win. For me rooting is based on emotion. Emotion, where statistical analysis does not play a role in my "hoping." I can look at statistics and say it's probably better for the Brewers playoff chances if the Cubs just run away with the division, but that does not make it easier for me to "root" for them. There is also the larger payoff as mentioned earlier if the Cubs just collapse.

[rluzinski]

Until the Brewers can close the gap to around 4 games (and there's at least a reasonable chance of that happening), if the Cubs are playing the Cardinals or any other team ahead of the Brewers in the wild card race, I'll be rooting for Soriano and Zambrano to shut em' down!!!

 

Does that get me excommunicated? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Will I get a big red "C" painted on my chest and be forced to wear a foam Cubs finger?

[LUKE232323]

The Cubs, their employees, their fans, their fans pets, their fans' pets' pets, and the whole city of Chicago can go to hell and if the Cubs only have another 100 years of misery it won't be nearly enough. No chance in hell I root for them. I don't care what is said in this thread, nothing is going to change my mind.

[jhart05]

Until the Brewers can close the gap to around 4 games (and there's at least a reasonable chance of that happening), if the Cubs are playing the Cardinals or any other team ahead of the Brewers in the wild card race, I'll be rooting for Soriano and Zambrano to shut em' down!!!

 

 

Wait a second, when it get's down to 4 games, you're going to start rooting for a Brewers Division title, but 'till that time you're pulling for the cubs to beat anyone that is ahead of the Crew in the Wild Card standings.

 

But if the cubs lose, that would help the Crew get that number down to 4 quicker. So wouldn't it just be easier to root against the cubs from the start? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

 

Plus what are you going to do it they get it down to 3, then maybe it goes back up to 5? Man your head's going to be spinning trying to keep track of who you're supposed to be rooting for.

 

Nah, I say just root against the cubs from the start. It's more fun anyway. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Fear The Chorizo]

The Brewers have done what the Cubs did last season when they went on a hot streak but couldn't initially make up ground on Milwaukee - they gained ground on or passed everyone else. Aside from the Cardinals and Marlins, there's nobody else eligible for the wild card with a better record right now than the Brewers.

 

1/2 the teams that made the playoffs last season overcame larger than 7 game deficits at later points in the season than June 4. If the rest of the season were played in a simulator, I may think differently, but there's just too many different things (injuries, trades, hot/cold streaks) that could happen that will affect the standings to give up on the division now.

[TooLiveBrew]

Does that get me excommunicated? Will I get a big red "C" painted on my chest and be forced to wear a foam Cubs finger?

 

Yes, but over your head, a la the brown paper bag. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[T B0NE 10]

On ESPN they said the Cubs would run away with the division with only St. Louis possibly keeping it interesting.

 

Wow. I think St Louis is the 4th (possibly 5th best team) in the division.

[moofnelson]

On ESPN they said the Cubs would run away with the division with only St. Louis possibly keeping it interesting.

 

Wow. I think St Louis is the 4th (possibly 5th best team) in the division.

 

The dunderheads on ESPN aren't paid to think. They are paid to talk.