I Don't Care What The Cubs Do Anymore (Mostly/Sorta)

[Brian the Automator]

Early last year, it seems that the Brewers were poised to absolutely run away with the central, whereas the Cubs seemed to be destined to finish in the lower half of the division.

 

I'm just sayin...

[davego]

I know I have Wild Card Fever.

[FVBrewerFan]

- Cubs have played 34 home games, only 24 road games. They have a big stretch of road games coming up over the next month. Let's see where they are then.

 

- They have played a soft schedule, and avoided opposing teams #1 and #2 starters. Something that tends to even out over the course of the year.

 

- Brewers get six more games at home vs the Cubs

 

- The big "I" could come into play. What if they lose 2 or 3 pitchers from the rotation? Or Lee and Ramirez go down? Four months to go, plenty of things can happen.

 

Those are all reasons you can logically point to as reasons the Cubs aren't a lock to win 90+ games. Besides the fact they are playing the best they possibly can right now. With all that said, I have stopped "worrying" about them as well. Keep focusing on winning, and target teams like the Cardinals, Marlins, Braves or Mets as the teams you're trying to chase for the wild card. Come September, who knows...maybe the Cubs will be there ready to be taken down.

[Fatter than Joey]

Early last year, it seems that the Brewers were poised to absolutely run away with the central, whereas the Cubs seemed to be destined to finish in the lower half of the division.

 

The Brewers had a historically bad meltdown -- I don't think we can count on that sort of thing happening to the Cubs. I think the 2008 Cubs are better than the 2007 Cubs, and I am not sure that the 2007 Brewers are worse than this year's Brewers.

 

The WC seems more realistic.

[Brian the Automator]

The Brewers had a historically bad meltdown -- I don't think we can count on that sort of thing happening to the Cubs.

The Chicago Cubs?

 

[Fatter than Joey]

The Chicago Cubs?

 

Yes. Those Cubs.

[Brian the Automator]

The Chicago Cubs?

 

Yes. Those Cubs.

If there's something I've learned over the past 100 years, it's that the Cubs find have a knack for choking. I know, different personnel mean different teams, but if I'm a Cub fan, I guess I'd feel a bit nervous about printing playoff tickets until at least the end of July.

 

[Fatter than Joey]

If there's something I've learned over the past 100 years, it's that the Cubs find have a knack for choking.

 

Well I guess I will defer to your 100 year learning window. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[owbc]

Wouldn't it be interesting if at the end of September, the Cubs have the division clinched and we have to play them the last weekend of the season with our Wildcard hopes on the line. Would they quietly rest some of their starters or make an full effort to ruin our chance at the playoffs?

[jhart05]

I think the 2008 Cubs are better than the 2007 Cubs, and I am not sure that the 2007 Brewers are worse than this year's Brewers.

 

 

Would you say the 2008 cubs are a better team than the 2007 Mets?

 

I'm not counting on a cubs collapse, but anything can happen. Especially with 10 head-to-head games left and 7 of them at Miller Park.

[Thurston Fluff]

While no one thinks they'll keep that pace up, what if they simply play like the 88 win team that most expected before the season started? That's STILL 94 wins.

 

True but I think if the team was an 88 win type team and plays way above their head for a portion of the season it is equally reasonable to think they will play well below that 88 win pace for a period of time as well. All in all though I've been far more interested in how the Brewers play and am willing to let the chips fall where they will. If the Cubs are really that good it shouldn't make us less happy if the Brewers win 90 games should it?

[Fatter than Joey]

I'm not counting on a cubs collapse, but anything can happen.

 

Sure -- the Cubs could lose their last 100 games -- it could happen.

 

I don't think people realize how monumentally bad our collapse was last year, and it is probably not going to repeat this year.

[jeffy]

The Cubs are 26-8 at home, they are not likely to sustain that pace for the entire season and they are not (yet) even at .500 on the road. The Brewers also have a much better record at home than on the road, but have played 7 fewer home games and 7 additional road games.

 

I think it won't matter what the Cubs or anyone else does, if the Brewers continue to have a terrible record on the road. They have 16 road games before the All-Star break. If they do something like 6-10, their road record will be 19-28, just about matching their road winning percentage from last season. Despite contending last year, with an awful road record, I don't see it happening again this year.

[JJHardy7]

It's too early for me to worry about the Cubs...not too late because of their record. I'm more worried about the Brewers improving their record and winning more games. If the Brewers take care of their business, the rest should fall into place for the Brewers vs. Cubs games.

[joepepsi]

I'm with Snapper on this one. Odds-Schmodds, the season is young and a 7 game lead is not insurmountable. The Cubs are a very good team with maybe a great manager. They have met and exceeded expectations so far this year. Good for them.

 

I care less about other what other teams do however, and more about how "my" team performs. Call me silly, but I still think the Brewers are the most talented team in the league. They are playing much better than they were back in early-mid May. In fact they are 14-10 since May 8th, 94.5 win pace. Since the key players are remarkably young it's plausible the team will play even better as the summer heats up.

 

The current wild card place holder are the Cardinals and they are only 3.5 games behind the Cubs. It's not impossible for the Brewers to over take the Cards by the end of the month. I expect that sort of leapfrog would put the Brewers within 5 games of first place. With three full months left to the season on July 1, the division would essentially be a toss up at that point.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I see a lot of similarities with this year's Cub team and last year's Brewer team - shaky middle relief, an early season overuse of key relievers (i.e., playing/managing with the season is over in July mentality), historically average starters outperforming their career numbers, and a home-heavy schedule full of cupcakes and favorable pitching matchups.

 

I'm not saying the Cubs are suddenly going to lose the next 15 games, but there is way too much baseball left to be played before conceding the division. I think the Brewers' current 7 game deficit has more to do with the schedule difference and their immediate lapse following the Gallardo injury than anything the Cubs have done.

 

As the rosters look right now, I don't think the Brewers have enough quality starting pitching to stay red hot for months at a time and pull a Rocky/Philly-like comeback to overtake the Cubs. However, I think the Cubs have more than enough warts on their team, especially on their pitching staff, to keep them from winning 8 out of every 10 games they play, too.

 

An injury, or a trade for either team could really change the outlook

[BrewCrewForever]

I'm inclined to agree Rluz. As much as I would rather win the NL Central, I don't care how we get into the playoffs as long as we do. So if its wild card that is fine by me.

[rluzinski]

I don't think people realize how monumentally bad our collapse was last year, and it is probably not going to repeat this year.

 

It's not so much what the Brewers did that made it so noteworthy; it's that the Brewers' fade coincided with the Cubs resurgence.

 

The season started off with the Brewers WAY over performing and the Cubs WAY underperforming. For the rest of the year, the Brewers underperformed and the Cubs over performed. After their amazing and completely unsustainable 24-10 start, the Brewers finished the season 59-69 (75 win pace). Considering preseason expectations were only around 83 wins and considering that I'm purposely selecting the worst sample that I can find, it's still a bad finish but not THAT bad.

 

The Cubs low point was 22-31, despite having a positive run differential. They finished the season on a 63-46 run (94 win pace). Their hot finish was significantly more extreme that than the Brewers cold finish.

 

Why I don't think the scenario will repeat itself in the opposite direction this year is because the circumstances are different. This year, the Cubs are fundamentally a better them than the Brewers were last year and the Brewers really haven't underperformed much this year up to this point, record-wise. What "should" the Brewers record be right now? 31-27? That's what a true 86 or 87 in team would be at right now and without Gallardo, I can't see realistically expecting much more, in a "true talent" sense.

 

If the Brewer catch the Cubs, it will be because of massive injuries to the Cubs or massive luck for the Brewers. Both are possible but not likely.

[Fatter than Joey]

It's not so much what the Brewers did that made it so noteworthy; it's that the Brewers' fade coincided with the Cubs resurgence.

 

Right -- but that is essentially what we are discussing here as well, i.e. we need the Cubs to fade and the Brewers to surge.

 

Considering preseason expectations were only around 83 wins and considering that I'm purposely selecting the worst sample that I can find, it's still a bad finish but not THAT bad.

 

BP did a story last year where they looked at the teams with the highest "Postseason Odds", that ultimately did not make the playoffs, and the 2007 Brewers had one of the highest chances of making the playoffs, that didn't make the playoffs in NL history.

[rluzinski]

BP did a story last year where they looked at the teams with the highest "Postseason Odds", that ultimately did not make the playoffs, and the 2007 Brewers had one of the highest chances of making the playoffs, that didn't make the playoffs in NL history.

 

It was 40th highest in major league history:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6764

 

My point of looking at the Brewers' 59-69 finish was that it really wasn't that dramatic when you look at it objectively. It sure felt more dramatic as a fan, though.

[Bring Back the Stein]

The Cubs will burn in a fire of their own making. It will be a beautiful fire, a divine fire, reaching to the heavens and meant to teach mankind about the folly of hubris and the wickedness of arrogance. Here's to another 100 years.

[Oldcity]

40th worst is pretty bad, but since the collapse came in July/August instead of September, it's probably overlooked and honestly, less painful.

 

I went to bed with the Cubs down 3-1 and was very angry to see they won. I can't ever root for them. That said, San Diego's not going to contend for the wildcard more than likely, so I have no qualms rooting for them the next couple games. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Fatter than Joey]

It sure felt more dramatic as a fan, though.

 

Shortly after the Brewers "postseason odds probability peak" in July, they went through a stretch of games where they went 13-27 -- (thats 52/162). This is the point in the season if you looked at it on a graph, you would circle with a big red pen and indicate as the place where the trolley came off the track. It was dramatic, as Steveo points out, the collapse just happened earlier in the season.

 

I think overall we are in agreement -- the Cubs current probability of playoffs is ~83% -- we are probably not likely to bump them from the playoffs.

 

Our current playoff probability is 16% -- with a 6.6% chance of winning our division -- not real super odds.

[SeriesFinale]

Post subject: Anyone have a Brewerfan.net account?

---

I've been dying to post this over there.

 

Much of their hopes at this point are being pinned on how it isn't over because the Brewers were 8.5 games up last season but blew it.

 

At the high point of their season, the 8.5 game lead on June 23rd, the Brewers had a run differential of +29 vs. the Cubs' of +22. The pythagorean win percentages were almost identical for the two teams.

 

With the Cubs seven games ahead of the Brewers right now, the Cubs are at +93 runs and the Brewers are at -13, a difference of 10 games in pythagorean projection to this point.

You're welcome, KyleJRM from NSBB

 

I personally know what the stats say, I know what history says, I know the schedule differences, I know what the differences between the '07 and '08 versions of the Cubs and Brewers are, I know all the good and bad omens...all the same, it's the first week of June and as such I'm just not ready to capitualte the division itself. Maybe come next month if/when the Brewers are still six or seven back I might be compelled to root for the Cubs against possible WC contenders, but not yet. Not yet.

 

 

(cleaned up code --1992)

[rluzinski]

Our current playoff probability is 16% -- with a 6.6% chance of winning our division -- not real super odds.

 

The version you are using ignores everything but this season's performances. That's like trying to project every player going forward based on only what they've done over the first 2 months. HUGE uncertainty in a projection like that. You should use the PECOTA version, IMO:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_oddspec.php

 

Even then, you should take those odds with a grain of salt. BP regresses all the teams towards their preseason expectations but they don't update those expectations for injuries. Gallardo is still plugging away ewvery 5 days according to them. His loss easily cost the Brewers 3 wins. They predict that the Brewers are most likey to finish the season with a 58-46 run, which is at a 90 win rate team. Even with Yo, I have no idea how they justify that. Did they expect the Brewers to win 92+ games before the season started because they've done little yet this year to indicate that they are anything slightly above average.