I Don't Care What The Cubs Do Anymore (Mostly/Sorta)

[rluzinski]

After tonight's inevitable win, the Cubs will be 37-21 and will be on pace for 103 wins. While no one thinks they'll keep that pace up, what if they simply play like the 88 win team that most expected before the season started? That's STILL 94 wins. The Brewers would have to finish the season 64-40 to even tie them. That's playing like a 100 win team for 2/3rd of a season to have a 50% chance of winning the Central. In other words, the Brewers have no reasonable of winning the NL Central, IMO.

 

As Brewer fans, I think it's time to root for the Cubs to beat any team that might have a shot at the wildcard and hope for the chance to beat them in the NLCS. Are you with me!?

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I'm with you. Let's root for the Cubs against contenders only. Plus if we root for them, maybe they'll actually lose!

[adambr2]

I think we tend to get caught up in statistic odds sometimes which can be a little misleading. I'm sure the Cubs odds of catching us in late June last year were even more astronomical when they were 8.5 behind us. Statistically you could have figured late last June that the Cubs had a very minimal chance of catching us. The odds of us going 10 games under .500 for the balance of the season seemed non-existent the several times we were 14 games over .500.

 

That being said, I do agree that the Wild Card is a lot more realistic goal at this point.

[owbc]

That 3-run HR makes it interesting, at least. I'm sure the Cubs will hang on.

 

I still think we can catch the Cubs, but they are really going to have to help us out.

 

We haven't even played them at Miller Park yet, so if we can pull off a sweep, half of their lead could evaporate.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Well the Brewers lost their Ace for 8 weeks in a critical part of the season last year. If the Cubs lost Zambrano for 8 weeks, then the lead they have now is nothing.

[mothershipconnection]

I have the solution. Fire Yost and coax the Cubs into bringing him on as a base coach or whatever. He brings his second half collapsing magic and we eek out the division crown.

[moofnelson]

After the Cubs last homestand, especially when they beat the Rockies after being down by eight runs, I became resigned to the fact that this is their year to win the division. I just can't root for them.

 

The wild card is a more reasonable expectation right now. The Brewers are only 3.5 behind St. Louis, with Houston, Florida and Atlanta ahead of them. They can play with these teams.

[jhart05]

I'm not ready to give up on catching the ScRubs. Anything can happen.

 

The Crew is still only 6.5 games back, with 10 head-to-head games left with them.

 

I'm sure they'll be thinking, "We win X in a row, and we're still only up 6.5 games on Milwaukee?!?!? What do we have to do?"

[OldSchoolSnapper]

The Cubs will not keep this pace. Ryan Theriot is not a .320 hitter, Zambrano is not a strong second half player, and Ryan Dempster is Ryan Dempster. It's way too early to hand anything to anyone. If the Brewers can play well for the next two months and keep within, say, eight games, there's a four-gamer at MP with the Cubs at the end of July. After that series, we should have a pretty good idea of our chances.

[splitterpfj]

I think you're right on, Russ, I've been thinking the same thing.

 

Who cares what the Cubs do, and good for them, they're earning it. The wildcard means they don't matter - the Crew is 3.5 back of the wildcard with 104 games to play....go for it!

 

Here's hoping the Brewers make it close...the Cubs clinch the division in Milwaukee on Friday night...the Brewers clinch the wildcard on Sunday - on the same field.

[rluzinski]

I think we tend to get caught up in statistic odds sometimes which can be a little misleading.

 

How is it misleading? The odds are what they are. Injuries and luck can always wreak havoc on those kind of calculations ,of course, but that odds of that happening to either team is equal. The Cubs have both the more talented team (although we could argue about just how much) and have a 7 game lead. That's some tough odds.

 

I guess the real question is, What odds are great enough as to make it worth actively rooting for and investing in emotionally? At this point, the Brewers might have something like a 1 in 10 chance of catching the Cubs For me, that's just too great great of odds to root for when the Brewers still have a better reasonable chance at making it though the wildcard route. I'd rather just focus on that goal and hope the Cubs steamroll every other team that has the same hope. Obviously, others are free to disagree, which is the point of this thread.

 

If the Cubs lost Zambrano for 8 weeks, then the lead they have now is nothing.

 

You think Zambrano over 8 weeks is worth 7 wins over his replacement?

The Cubs will not keep this pace. Ryan Theriot is not a .320 hitter, Zambrano is not a strong second half player, and Ryan Dempster is Ryan Dempster.

 

And like I said, you will find no objective person and probably few Cubs fans who would disagree. But if they play at an 88 win level (the level they were expected to before the season even started), it's about a 50% chance of 94 wins. Thats' the low end of any objective guess. Could they lose 10 in a row? Of course. But so could the Brewers.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Let's say the Cubs and Brewers keep this 6-8 game distance, then on July 25-27 the Cubs lose three and the Brewers win two or three. Four game series at MP, Brewers are 4-6 games or so back. Way too early to concede anything. The season is 1/3 over!

[Marc Newfield of Dreams]

I'm with ya Snapper. The home (and Pirates) heavy schedule has a lot to do with this. Guys will cool down, they'll come back to the pack a bit. Also, don't be shocked if Fukudome's numbers take a hit now that the league has seen him once, and can figure out how to pitch him.

 

If the Crew can get it to 4 or under by the break it is game on. They'll have some chances at home to make up ground directly later this season.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

And like I said, you will find no objective person and probably few Cubs fans who would disagree. But if they play at an 88 win level (the level they were expected to before the season even started), it's about a 50% chance of 94 wins. Thats' the low end of any objective guess. Could they lose 10 in a row? Of course. But so could the Brewers.

Yes, but I also remember when the Brewers were 24-10. Many said they could play .500 ball and still win 88 games. We all know what happened. It's just too early. Not saying things will change, but there's 2/3 of the season left. Just way too early to give up right now man.

 

[danzig6767]

The Cubs have both the more talented team (although we could argue about just how much) and have a 7 game lead. That's some tough odds.

Those two reasons combined is why i feel any playoff chances are very very likely going to have to come via the Wild Card

 

[brewtank34]

splitterpfj wrote:

Who cares what the Cubs do, and good for them, they're earning it. The wildcard means they don't matter - the Crew is 3.5 back of the wildcard with 104 games to play....go for it!

Yah, and we're only 7 games out of 1st with 104 games to play...Go for it!!

 

As much as I'm a realist and believe that the Cubs are unfortunately the best team in the division, maybe the NL, and that the Wild Card is a more likely bet for the Crew, I'm not going to surrender the fact that they are STILL THE CUBS! It's a long season and I believe the Crew has a way above average chance of winning the division.

[rluzinski]

Not saying things will change, but there's 2/3 of the season left. Just way too early to give up right now man.

 

I'm not saying that I'm giving up. Just that it's not worth it to me actively rooting against the Cubs every night anymore, especially if they are playing a team that has a shot at the wild card. Just wanted to see how many people were on my side http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

All I know is, the Brewers could be 2.5 games out of and ties for second place in the wild card race by tomorrow. That's a lot more exciting to me than the prospect of being 6 games back.

[DHonks]

I hear ya Russ. At the same time, I say we go 8-2 against the Cubs, thus shaving 6 games off their lead.

[pebadger]

I'm with you, RL. Not giving up, but the numbers are daunting enough that it makes worrying about the Cubs not worth the effort. Not cheering for them, but not going to get upset when the other team just gives a game away to them either.

 

If the Brewers win EVERY remaining 3 game series this season 2-1, and split the even-gamed series, they get to 93 or 94 wins. At this point, the Cubs can fall off their current pace a fair bit and still beat the Brewers in this scenario.

 

The flip side of these numbers is that, if the Cubs do blow it like the Brewers did last year, it will be extra sweet. So I'll just keep hoping for the best Brewer season possible from here out and let the chips fall where they may. Though, try as I may, I'll still probably get riled up at least three or four times this summer over some ridiculous result in a Cubs game.

[Dragonbait]

Never accept defeat... as soon as we start playing for the WC is when we lose the WC...

 

Keep playing for the division and the WC will be easier to win...

[Janelle Larson]

As a Cubs fan, I still care what the Brewers do. Looking at the September schedule, I've been saying that if the Brewers are within 6 with just 13 to play, I'll still be nervous.

 

So 7 GB with over a 104 games left doesn't make me very comfortable.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

I guess the real question is, What odds are great enough as to make it worth actively rooting for and investing in emotionally?

 

I agree in principle, but I think you are underestimating the potentional emotional payoff if the admittedly unlikely Cubs collapse occurs, and if it is the Brewers that make off with the division title.

 

Basically, I think it's important not to lose track of the whole sick schadenfreude "Ha Ha (Nelson voice)" revenge-fueled "this is what last year felt like to us, suckers!" aspect.

 

This might be a longshot call - we're probably drawing to an inside straight, so to speak, but the size of the pot justifies it in my opinion.

 

 

P.S. Especially if the reason for said Cubs collapse is total idiot mismanagement - like signing Jim Edmonds because Felix Pie isn't setting the world on fire offensively, or riding Carlos Marmol hard and putting him away wet in May.

[rluzinski]

This might be a longshot call - we're probably drawing to an inside straight, so to speak, but the size of the pot justifies it in my opinion.

 

Recognize that it's a long shot to hit the hand but the pot odds justifies staying in the hand? That's an analogy I might be able to get behind.

[dlk9s]

Yeah, I'm not counting on catching the Cubs anymore. They are just running too hot. I mean, holy hell, we win 7 of 8 and lose a game in the standings?

 

At the same time, think of it this way. We only need to make up 2 games per month. That sounds doable, right?

[TauPentaRei]

Fortunately for y'all that live outside of Chicago - "not caring what the Cubs do anymore" is at least a viable option.

 

The relentless radio time, numbing newspaper inches, television bombardment, wafting wrigleyville stench and general Cub-fan elation are defiantly un-avoidable for any organism within eyesight of the Sears Tower.

 

But... if I had to pick one team that I wanted to see the Crew to beat to win the pennant it would be the Cubs. Oddly enough, probably at Wrigley too (with 46K+ watching inside Miller).

 

Cubs beat the NL east foe, assuming that scrum results in the lower seed; Brewers take care of the D-bags... and all of a sudden we've got an NLCS for the ages; a rivalry in its infancy matures rapidly.