Hardy or Hall?

[nate82]

Well, the difference is between guys that track the ball well even if they aren't looking for it. Honestly, any discussion with you about Hall seems fruitless.

Those are the great hitters who can do that. Hardy and Hall are not great hitters. They are both about equal in terms of seeing pitches and hitting them.

 

Now check this out if you don't believe me Hall tracks the ball as well as Hardy does and is able to make adjustments. Look at his hitting zones. Pay close attention to his averages on the pitches away from Hall compared to Hardy. They are about the same with Hall hitting pitches better that are low and away and Hardy is hitting pitches better that are up and away. Both are having hard times against pitches that are being thrown inside on them. Hall is having a little bit better success than Hardy is with pitches on the inside.

J.J. Hardy and Bill Hall hitting charts based on where the pitchers are located.

[logan82]

nate82 wrote:

Those are the great hitters who can do that. Hardy and Hall are not great hitters. They are both about equal in terms of seeing pitches and hitting them.

Maybe in terms of actual hits, but Hardy walks more and puts the ball in play for more of his outs while Hall strikes out way more. I think that Hardy is much better at making contact with the ball than Hall is.

[nate82]

Maybe in terms of actual hits, but Hardy walks more and puts the ball in play for more of his outs while Hall strikes out way more. I think that Hardy is much better at making contact with the ball than Hall is.

Hardy

SEASON	TEAM	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2007	Mil	151	592	89	164	30	1	26	80	40	73	2	3	.277	.323	.463	.786

Hall

 

SEASON	TEAM	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2007	Mil	136	452	59	115	35	0	14	63	40	128	4	5	.254	.315	.425	.740

Last year was Hardy's best year as a Brewer. Now take that into account that this was one of Hall's worst year as a starter. Both walked 40 times each. OBP for both are almost the same.

 

Now if you go back to 2004 for Hardy. You will see he has a line of .247/.327/.384/.711 which is what I believe is what Hardy will do for you almost every year. Now looking at Hall his 2007 numbers which were .254/.315/.425/.740 is what I believe Hall will you give you every year.

 

Of course Hall is going to strike out more he is more of a power hitter than Hardy is. Take this for example since Hardy was injured in 2006 we can't really compare 2005 and 2006. So lets compare 2005 and 2007 for Hardy. Hardy walked less by (4) from 2005 to 2007 but he also strike out more an increase of 25 more strike outs but Hardy also hit more Home Runs and doubles. Increase in HR's by 17 and an increase in doubles by 8.

 

Hall is actually increasing his walks from last year. I believe he is on pace to be about where he was walking in 2006 where he had 63 walks. Hall won't walk 60 times but 45-50 is possible by the end of the season. Hall does strike out a lot more than Hardy and Hardy does put the ball into play more but in terms of walking both are at about the same level.

[TooLiveBrew]

Hall does strike out a lot more than Hardy and Hardy does put the ball into play more but in terms of walking both are at about the same level.

 

That just isn't true.

2008 BB rates:

 

Hardy -- 10.7%

Hall -- 7.8%

 

 

2008 K rates:

 

Hardy -- 15.1%

Hall -- 28.6%

 

The only time Bill Hall has been at the on-base level that J.J. currently is (keep in mind J.J. is only slugging .339 so far in 2008) was in his outlier/career season with 35 HR. As of today for 2008, Hardy's BB rate is still better than Hall's rate in 2006, even with the seriously low SLG%. How you can argue that their on-base skills are about the same is beyond me.

 

Hardy appears to be a young hitter whose eye at the plate & BB rate are improving, while Hall... always has & apparently always will have a less-than-stellar approach -- and if you look at his career objectively, appears to have already peaked. Yes, he can hit for power, but with his low, low OBP, the production overall is definitely hurt. When J.J. isn't hitting the ball hard, he's still getting on base. Hall... not so much.

 

Bill's HR/FB rate is well above his career norms, yet his LD% is a career low. I think the argument can be made that Hall's HR total thus far has been kinda fluky. His IFFB rate is crazy high, his FB rate is down, and his GB rate is as high as it's been since 2003. Meanwhile, J.J. is pretty much within his norms across the board, except his HR/FB rate is low enough that it'd be unwise to assume anything but that it will grow.

 

Sorry for the monster post, but pretty much everything demonstrates that Hardy is clearly superior when discussing on-base skills.

[danzig6767]

Hall does strike out a lot more than Hardy and Hardy does put the ball into play more but in terms of walking both are at about the same level.

 

That just isn't true.

2008 BB rates:

 

Hardy -- 10.7%

Hall -- 7.8%

 

 

2008 K rates:

 

Hardy -- 15.1%

Hall -- 28.6%

 

The only time Bill Hall has been at the on-base level that J.J. currently is (keep in mind J.J. is only slugging .339 so far in 2008) was in his outlier/career season with 35 HR. As of today for 2008, Hardy's BB rate is still better than Hall's rate in 2006, even with the seriously low SLG%. How you can argue that their on-base skills are about the same is beyond me.

 

Hardy appears to be a young hitter whose eye at the plate & BB rate are improving, while Hall... always has & apparently always will have a less-than-stellar approach -- and if you look at his career objectively, appears to have already peaked. Yes, he can hit for power, but with his low, low OBP, the production overall is definitely hurt. When J.J. isn't hitting the ball hard, he's still getting on base. Hall... not so much.

 

Bill's HR/FB rate is well above his career norms, yet his LD% is a career low. I think the argument can be made that Hall's HR total thus far has been kinda fluky. His IFFB rate is crazy high, his FB rate is down, and his GB rate is as high as it's been since 2003. Meanwhile, J.J. is pretty much within his norms across the board, except his HR/FB rate is low enough that it'd be unwise to assume anything but that it will grow.

 

Sorry for the monster post, but pretty much everything demonstrates that Hardy is clearly superior when discussing on-base skills.

 

I don't see much difference between the two when it comes to drawing walks, both are pretty mediocre at it. I think in most years, the guy with the better batting average between the two will always be the guy with the better OBP that season.

[endaround]

Hardy's increase in walks is due to hitting in front of the pitcher so expect them to plummet. In the 7th spot he has 20 walks in 144 PAs for a 13.8% BB rate. Outside of that he has 3 walks in 73 PAs for a 4% rate.

[nate82]

Hardy's increase in walks is due to hitting in front of the pitcher so expect them to plummet. In the 7th spot he has 20 walks in 144 PAs for a 13.8% BB rate. Outside of that he has 3 walks in 73 PAs for a 4% rate.

This is not true. Hitting in front of the pitcher is not going to give you more walks. Actually I believe someone on here found out that the opposite is actually true.

 

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

It wasn't a BF.netter, but it was a brewer fan -- Jeff Sackmann, in this article:

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-benefit-of-batting-eighth/

 

This might not be the end of the story on this question. As the author notes at the end of the piece, a study using multiple years would be more definitive. But, since no one ever bothered to check whether the "more walks" hypothesis was true, I'd say at present we have to, at minimum, go with a null hypothesis of "no effect".

[logan82]

nate,

The position of your arguement has become confusing. You seemed to be trying to argue Hall will draw more walks than Hardy despite the rates potsed by TLB showing the opposite. Now you seem to be arguing that Hardy should see his BB rate increase from no longer hitting in front of the pitcher. If Hardy currently has a better BB rate and should see that increase because he isn't hitting in front of the pitcher, why should we expect Hall to BB as much as Hardy? Add to that Hall having double the K rate and I don't see how this supports Hall as having better plate discipline.

[endaround]

A general finding need not apply to all players. And I highly doubt Hardy gets many more IBB while he had 3 in the 7th spot. Now that Yost caved, it will take more work though to sort out what's going on.

[Tbadder]

I'd swallow hard and take Hardy. Neither of them excite me much anymore.

[nate82]

nate,

The position of your arguement has become confusing. You seemed to be trying to argue Hall will draw more walks than Hardy despite the rates potsed by TLB showing the opposite. Now you seem to be arguing that Hardy should see his BB rate increase from no longer hitting in front of the pitcher. If Hardy currently has a better BB rate and should see that increase because he isn't hitting in front of the pitcher, why should we expect Hall to BB as much as Hardy? Add to that Hall having double the K rate and I don't see how this supports Hall as having better plate discipline.

No I'm not talking about Hall getting more walks than Hardy. Hall and Hardy walk about the same amount. Hardy is only walking 2.9% more that is about the same. Not much of a difference between the two.

They both have about the same plate discipline. Not exactly the same but the key word here is about the same. Meaning they are very close in their plate discipline. It is a wash between Hall and Hardy when talking about their plate discipline.

 

[TooLiveBrew]

Actually a difference in BB rate like that is not the same as a wash. Consider what each guy projects for 650 PA from today's date for BBs: Hardy - 69; Hall - 50. That's a relatively big difference when considering season totals. I know the method is crude, but it's just for example's sake.

 

If you're saying that you don't care about the difference of 20 BBs in a season, I get ya. I just do care, as imho that's a significant difference. Also, JJ should probably be expected to grow that BB rate as his power starts to come around, so quite plausibly he could have 10 or so more BBs. Hall really isn't off from career norms all that much, and I'd have a hard time seeing him get up to 60 BBs again without piling up the HR like he did in '06.

[phxMILWfan]

Hall does strike out a lot more than Hardy and Hardy does put the ball into play more but in terms of walking both are at about the same level.

 

That just isn't true.

2008 BB rates:

 

Hardy -- 10.7%

Hall -- 7.8%

 

 

2008 K rates:

 

Hardy -- 15.1%

Hall -- 28.6%

 

The only time Bill Hall has been at the on-base level that J.J. currently is (keep in mind J.J. is only slugging .339 so far in 2008) was in his outlier/career season with 35 HR. As of today for 2008, Hardy's BB rate is still better than Hall's rate in 2006, even with the seriously low SLG%. How you can argue that their on-base skills are about the same is beyond me.

 

Hardy appears to be a young hitter whose eye at the plate & BB rate are improving, while Hall... always has & apparently always will have a less-than-stellar approach -- and if you look at his career objectively, appears to have already peaked. Yes, he can hit for power, but with his low, low OBP, the production overall is definitely hurt. When J.J. isn't hitting the ball hard, he's still getting on base. Hall... not so much.

 

Bill's HR/FB rate is well above his career norms, yet his LD% is a career low. I think the argument can be made that Hall's HR total thus far has been kinda fluky. His IFFB rate is crazy high, his FB rate is down, and his GB rate is as high as it's been since 2003. Meanwhile, J.J. is pretty much within his norms across the board, except his HR/FB rate is low enough that it'd be unwise to assume anything but that it will grow.

 

Sorry for the monster post, but pretty much everything demonstrates that Hardy is clearly superior when discussing on-base skills.

I don't see much difference between the two when it comes to drawing walks, both are pretty mediocre at it. I think in most years, the guy with the better batting average between the two will always be the guy with the better OBP that season.

 

3% difference is about 15 times reaching base in a year. So, yeah that is a difference. Also, which player is interested in being traded?