Hardy or Hall?

[MJLiverock]

Hall is indeed a guess hitter -- and one who tries to pull the ball out quite frequently/every time he thinks he can. It's no wonder his on-base skills are so bad, really. Hardy's on-base ability is just so much better than Hall's, it's really not all that close.

 

C'mon, Hardy is a career .325 OBP and Hall is a career .318 OBP, I wouldn't call that not close.

 

Hardy is probably the most disappointing of the prospects at this point (with Weeks being close). I heard all the raves of his defense and have seen an average defender so far with limited range and a strong arm. I bought into the miracle of his start last year and thought wow he really was suffering these past years from rustiness and getting used to ML pitching. But now after the 2nd half of last year and first third of this year I am back to thinking he is what he has been for most of his ML career and the first half of last year was the miracle outlier. Hardy looks like he is going to be a .250/.320/.375 player while playing average defense. Hall might boot a few more routine plays, make a few more highlight plays and put up a .250/.315/.420 line. The whole picture of both looks pretty even with each being a little stronger in some areas. I just hope Escobar becomes the answer at SS and at least can bring D as good as rumored.

[GormanHarvey]

Give me Hall.

[logan82]

Escobar isn't exactly tearing up AA right now. Unless I am mistaken his AA stats are pretty close to Hardy's MLB stats.

[endaround]

You would be mistaken

 

Escobar's current line:

 

331/.371/ .456

[logan82]

You would be mistaken

 

Escobar's current line:

 

331/.371/ .456

Oh, well. Must have been MLE's I saw posted a couple weeks back.

 

[TooLiveBrew]

C'mon, Hardy is a career .325 OBP and Hall is a career .318 OBP, I wouldn't call that not close.

 

Hall's has more to do with his power than how he works the count imho. Hardy is not a guess hitter like Hall, and takes BBs more from his eye at the plate than just a pitcher not wanting to give him a strike.

 

I won't argue that Hardy has great on-base skills, just that his 'skills' (keep in mind Hall's MLB time has been largely healthy, whereas J.J.'s has been very injury-filled thus far) are better than Hall's. Maybe what I mean is BB skill.

 

Any evaluation of how the skill translates to results is troublesome at this point, since J.J.'s had such (relatively) little healthy p-t. I don't think you can really use the results of either that effectively yet, since to be fair in terms of injury, Hardy's sample would be too small. Hall's is close to being a good amount, but I wouldn't want to try to conclude anything yet from what I'd feel are the appropriate samples.

 

Thus, I go off the scouting reports & what one can see when watching them bat. Hardy just doesn't guess nearly the amount that Hall does (not that that's saying much), and imho has clearly superior on-base skills

[Oldcity]

Neither has good plate discipline, both have arm strength as their main defensive asset and both are struggling mightily right now offensively. Neither is making the case that they should be kept around long term this season. I'll take Hardy on defense, and offensively it's kind of a pick your poison right now.

 

It's a big concern, because I don't see how Escobar will hit enough to be a full time MLB starter. If he is, he certainly won't be more than an average starter at short.

[getupgetouttaheregone]

Billy Hall has done everything asked of him on this team and he is getting pooped on(can I say that?). He is one of the top athletes on the team, if not the best. He is struggling against righties, but isn't half the team? Give him a break. I would hate to see him go, that's for sure. He is just frustrated now that he is getting plattooned w/ Branyan, and hopefully that get's him more motivated to do well. If I had to make a decision though on trading Hardy or Hall, it would have to be Hall. He's going to turn into a distraction for this team, and that's not what is needed right now. The teams focus should be on playing well enough to stay in the race.

[jhart05]

Yeah, Escobar has been on fire lately. Didn't Powell talk about that a little in the pregame show on Sunday?

 

I think the Brewers, and everyone else for that matter, realize Escobar isn't going to be all that special on offense.

 

But they do think he can be one of the best, if not THE best defensive shortstop in all of baseball.

[bcf5575]

Stevo[/b]]Neither has good plate discipline, both have arm strength as their main defensive asset and both are struggling mightily right now offensively. Neither is making the case that they should be kept around long term this season. I'll take Hardy on defense, and offensively it's kind of a pick your poison right now.

 

It's a big concern, because I don't see how Escobar will hit enough to be a full time MLB starter. If he is, he certainly won't be more than an average starter at short.

I don't see how Escobar can be much worse than Hardy offennsivley. JJ is a .240 hitter with, besides a fluke start to last seaon, minimal power. It wont take much for escobar to match that, plus he is way faster than Hardy and can cause problems on the basepaths...

 

For now, take the best offer for either. Have a Dillion/Branyan platoon at 3B (man that sucks - I cant wait for Gamel) and let the other start at SS.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

I don't see how Escobar can be much worse than Hardy offennsivley.

 

Spoken like a man unfamiliar with the work of this guy.

 

Edit: I should say more than that. I think it is important to remember that when Hardy was a year younger than Escobar is now, he put up a full season of AA numbers that are roughly equivalent to those Escobar has put up thus far, after the most titanic hitting tear of his life. Even though there is a huge gap in AVG (least stable of the 3 big rate stats), the OBP and SLG are equivalent because Hardy has more power, and a bunch more patience. I want to see a full season worth of this kind of hitting from Escobar before I'll think about him as anything more than future good field, no hit utility middle infielder.

 

Hardy's '03 line in Huntsville: .279 / .367 / .428

Escobar thus far: .331 / .371 / .456

 

It's only in the last week that Escobar has caught Hardy in OBP and SLG. With his walk rate as low as it is, I'd be shocked if he finishes the season with a better hitting line than Hardy had. If you're wondering how Escobar would be doing in the majors...

 

Escobar '08 MLE: .282 / .317 / .378

Hardy '08 actual: .245 / .325 / .319

 

I'll give the Escobar supporters this - if the Brewers could somehow have foreseen both Hardy badly underperforming and Escobar exceeding anybody's wildest expectations and give Escobar the starting SS spot at the beginning of the season, and if you assume that Escobar would've hit exactly as well in the majors as he has in AA, he would've been a bit better hitter than Hardy so far this year. Unfortunately for Escobar, his entire case rests on 239 AB this year. Let's look at last year:

 

Escobar '07 MLE (A+): .260 / .278 / .299 (268 AB)

Escobar '07 MLE (AA): .243 / .269 / .299 (226 AB)

Hardy '07 actual: .277 / .323 / .463

 

You can choose to view Hardy's early season tear last year as a fluke, but then you really need to view Escobar's early season tear this year as a fluke as well. I'm not saying Escobar should never get to take Hardy's place. I know that very few are actually suggesting calling up Escobar now. It may be that Escobar is coming into his own as a hitter and that sometime next year, he'll have demonstrated that he's ready to handle big league pitching over a long enough stretch of AA and AAA ABs, and it becomes reasonable to say that he can hit about as well as Hardy.

 

But I'd bet dollars to donuts that over the next year, both Escobar and Hardy regress to their respective means a whole bunch, and it will be quite obvious to everybody but the most stubborn folks that Hardy is a MUCH better major league hitter right now than Escobar is. Hardy is an average major league starting SS defensively. I still think he's a solidly above average major league starting SS offensively (last year he had a 100 OPS+ - that makes him an exactly average hitter REGARDLESS OF POSITION. SS is still the second worst hitting position).

 

I'm still skeptical about whether Escobar will ever hit like a major league positional regular, even if he does turn out to be one of the elite defensive shortstops in all of baseball. He just doesn't walk enough.

 

Oh, and on the original topic, give me Hardy over Hall for all the reasons Russ noted early in the thread. And I think the gap between Hardy and Hall's hitting is smaller than it seems Russ does.

[endaround]

I don't see how Escobar can be much worse than Hardy offennsivley.

 

Spoken like a man unfamiliar with the work of this guy.

He's a piker. This is the real winner

 

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

Ah...El Malo...where have you gone?

[hauser42]

1. How can anyone say Hall has been jerked around? He has been given a chance to play as an every day player. His breakout year at SS was due to JJ being hurt and him playing each day. Remeber he did not win the SS job coming out of spring that here and became the jack of all trades guy. He was moved to CF to keep his bat in the lineup, then this year to improve the defense and keep all the good bats in the lineup. Maybe Hall should have stayed as a super sub than he would not feel jerked around with less at bats and no where near the contract he has.

 

2. Hall struggling at the plate last year supposedly had to do with a move to CF and I heard a little of that this year. I say hog wash. There is a guy that moved to the OF and he seems to keep on raking this year. Braun may not be doing what he did last year but that was going to happen after that great rookie year.

 

 

Hall had one great season season as a fill in and now for some reason fans think he is owed a favor or two. Hall lacks good jump on balls at the middle spots and makes some great plays because he is athletic. On the flip side his bad reads give up singles that other players would make into outs. 3B is perfect for him as it lets his ahtletic ability to make plays and use his plus arm.

 

Hall IMO is over rated around here and I will take Hardy at SS.

[Ennder]

I'd rather keep Hardy on the team. His terrible first half of his rookie year is still suppressing those career stats somewhat and I think he has a shot to grow into an adequate OBP guy with high teen power. I also think he is a better fielder than Hall but it is a hard thing to judge. Hall makes more wow type players but Hardy is much more consistent defensively.

[UndraftedFA]

If I had to pick one, it would be Hardy. I still want Hall on the team, and I hope things will be straightened out with him. It took me a long time to warm up to Hall as a player. It always was a love/hate relationship. I hope he can be a big part of the Brewers' success yet this season.

 

I really doubt anyone is ready to take over 3b or SS yet. Gamel sounds improved on defense, but I want to see it sustained for a while yet. I think it would be a bad move to bring him up too early. Same thing with Escobar's offense.

[DHonks]

from rotoworld, " Hall signed a four-year, $24 million contract after winning team MVP honors in 2006, but has hit just .246/.309/.422 in 187 games since."

 

Interesting to see just how mediocre he's been since his 35 homer year. I like Hall, but at this point if it came down to one or the other, I think Hardy has a brighter future. I like his steady defense over Hall's flashy defense.

[futurebrewerfather]

This seems like a no brain-er to me. Would you rather have a guy that it appears is trying to get better and play in a way the helps the team or a guy that seems only concerned with his own stats. A guy that will make the routine plays, which are about 98% of the plays he'll have to make, or a guy that will blow a good number of those plays, but make a great one once every couple days so he can be on the Top Ten Plays of the Night on ESPN. I'll take the consistent team player and Hardy.

But here's what I don't get from a few of the posters that say Hall has a right to be upset since his best year was when he was a starting SS. Hall is not being sat down because of his D at 3rd, no matter how if'y it's been. He's being sat down because of his bat and what feels like a K every 3 out of 4 AB's, and trying to swing for the bleachers every time (and then giving the Ump a dirty look when he K's). I know that you're "comfort level" in the field will have some impact on your performance at the plate, but I find it really hard to believe that if Hall was given the everyday starting SS spot he'd suddenly become a better hitter. Let's be honest; Hall only had ONE GOOD YEAR at the plate. He hit way over his career #'s (but still struck out too much for my taste), so to say that is the kind of player he would be if he could just go back to being a starting SS seems to be an awful big stretch.

Now Hardy isn't doing too much to defend his argument either (all though I would like to see his numbers after a month in the #2 spot), but even so, I don't see this as being a tough choice.

[Oldcity]

This seems like a no brain-er to me. Would you rather have a guy that it appears is trying to get better and play in a way the helps the team or a guy that seems only concerned with his own stats.

To be fair, Hardy was the one who complained about hitting in front of the pitcher.

 

[Baldkin]

I'd take Bill Hall, 8 days a week.

 

His peak is much higher than Hardy's, and his low spot is higher than Hardy's as well.

 

As bad as Hall's bat has been this year, Hardy's has been even worse.

[logan82]

The only thing Hall has done better than Hardy this year, including defense, is SLG. Hall's OBP is below .300. The only starter on our team with a worse OBP is Cameron and that's only by 7 points.

[nate82]

Hall is indeed a guess hitter -- and one who tries to pull the ball out quite frequently/every time he thinks he can. It's no wonder his on-base skills are so bad, really. Hardy's on-base ability is just so much better than Hall's, it's really not all that close.

Ehhh. Everyone on the team is a guess hitter. Everyone in the MLB is a guess hitter. As a hitter they are guessing what the pitch is and where it will be. If you are not thinking about that then you are probably not a good hitter. Example of Hardy being a guess hitter last night. He swung at a low inside slider he was probably looking for that high fastball and looked real foolish when swinging at that slider.

Every hitter in the MLB guesses with hitting.

 

[TooLiveBrew]

But to be a 'guess hitter' is different from guessing sometimes (or 'sitting on a pitch') when hitting. Iirc Blazer weighed in on this with Hall a while back, maybe he can shed some more light here.

[nate82]

But to be a 'guess hitter' is different from guessing sometimes (or 'sitting on a pitch') when hitting. Iirc Blazer weighed in on this with Hall a while back, maybe he can shed some more light here.

You are still guessing that the pitcher is going to be throwing that pitch you are sitting on. Guessing is guessing no matter which way you spin it. So if you strike out or get an out because you didn't get the pitch you were sitting on that is different than guessing? Sitting on a pitch is just another term in baseball for guessing. It just makes it sound better than the hitter guessing at the pitch.

 

[TooLiveBrew]

So if you strike out or get an out because you didn't get the pitch you were sitting on that is different than guessing?

 

Well, the difference is between guys that track the ball well even if they aren't looking for it. Honestly, any discussion with you about Hall seems fruitless.