Counsell getting "lucky" with the bases loaded?

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

If this proves that Counsell is 'clutch' then I want to be the first to rip on him for only doing well in 1% of his plate appearances. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

Seconded. He needs to see a hypnotist, who can trick him into seeing runners leading off from every base during every PA. Then he'll suddenly morph into Wade Boggs, except he can play SS.

 

Or we can just be sensible and conclude that random variance is the best way to explain this data.

[TooLiveBrew]

I like the hypnotist idea, personally http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Is 8 GIDP's considered a lot in 100 PA's?

[TooLiveBrew]

Since 48 GIDP for 600 PA would be atrocious, I'd have to imagine that's a pretty large amount.

[Fatter than Joey]

The chart that is shown lists 8 in that situation.

 

Oops -- I didn't see the horizontal scroll bar, my bad.

 

Since 48 GIDP for 600 PA would be atrocious, I'd have to imagine that's a pretty large amount.

 

It's higher for sure.

 

So, you have,...

 

1. Higher OPS

2. GIDP rate is higher

3. BB rate is down.

 

So basically this indicates to me that Counsell sees some very hittable pitches, when the bases are loaded. Knowing Counsell, he probably slapped a lot of GBs, in these PAs, and he probably over his career has benefitted from these GBs finding holes.

[1992casey]

With the bases loaded, the 2007 Major League average was to ground into a double play every 17 plate appearances. Craig has grounded into a double play every 12.25 of his 98 bases loaded plate appearances.

 

The bottom line is that this sample is too small. You'd need hundreds of ABs to determine any kind of pattern.

 

Small samples have been the major roadblock to finding "clutch" players. The stats people like to quote don't stand up to standard reliability and validity testing.

 

This doesn't mean that there aren't "clutch" players. It means that we haven't shown their existence statistically. Statheads would be absolutely tickled to death if they could find a reliable and valid way to identify "clutch" players.

 

Identifying "clutch" players shouldn't be confused with identifying clutch situations. We absolutely know that clutch situations exist.

[Fatter than Joey]

The bottom line is that this sample is too small.

 

This has been pointed out WAY TOO MUCH. Everyone understands this.

 

Someone wanted to kick around ~100 ABs for Counsell -- Of course it is too small of a sample to say anything conclusive, but why can't we theorize about these 100 ABs

with the understanding that there isn't ever going to be a definitive answer.

[JJHardy7]

Since 48 GIDP for 600 PA would be atrocious, I'd have to imagine that's a pretty large amount.

 

I would take that any day -- 600 PAs with the bases loaded. I don't think it's fair to compare his 8 GIDP because more of his at bats occur when the bases are not loaded -- if there's not guys on base the double play can't happen.

[1992casey]

FTJ, I certainly didn't mean to cut of discussion. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

And I think we can actually do more than just theorize. Talking about the kinds of pitches thrown and what Craig might be doing with them is very much like working with a scouting report. When a sample is small, it needs to be supplemented by something, either observation or some kind of tie to a larger, more meaningful sample.

 

JJ, an acceptable GIDP rate needs some context. 48 GIDP in 600 PA (Counsell's rate) would be "atrocious" if it accompanied the league average OPS (.789 with bases loaded in 2007). With a 1.003 OPS (Counsell's), it's probably just fine.

[Fatter than Joey]

FTJ, I certainly didn't mean to cut of discussion.

 

Oh, I know... it's just that every other post has a "small sample" disclaimer.

 

When a sample is small, it needs to be supplemented by something, either observation or some kind of tie to a larger, more meaningful sample.

 

Right, again, this is beaten into every one soundly -- I think people still want to talk around it though.

 

These ~100 PAs get a lot of talk on the broadcasts, so I think it is natural to want to discuss them here (sample size be damned). Yost will probably make game-time decisions based on these 100 ABs anyway, and if it is large enough for Yost to run with it, it is large enough for us to whine about it.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I didn't get a chance to post this last night because I went out downtown after going to the game, but Counsell got yet another hit with the bases loaded yesterday. Is it getting to the point where we pinch hit him always with the bases juiced?

[DuWayne Steurer]

Over the course of a season, a guy won't GIDP a lot because he's not up with a runner in force position every time he's up, as is the case with the bases juiced. It stands to reason that the ratio of GIDP will be higher when you're using a sample that allows a force at every base.

[homer]

Well that hit was a bit 'lucky'. It was a ground ball to a place the defense wasn't. I reference my earlier post and ask why he can't do it in other siutations? Say 2nd and 3rd or any time a guy is in scoring position.