Counsell getting "lucky" with the bases loaded?

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Craig Counsell has a career 1.003 OPS with the bases loaded according to baseball-reference.com. Now, he only has 81 AB's so the sabremetrical people are going to say small sample size, but what are you guys thoughts on this? Could there possibly be a "clutch" player or is this just "statistical noise"?

 

Personally, I think if a player can do something like that over the course of a long career, it's more than statistical noise, but let's see what the discussion yields.

[TooLiveBrew]

If it were more than just 100-ish PA, I'd agree that there's some amount of skill that Counsell has to influence it. I think a more useful stat is his production with runners on (1,692 PA): .268/.362/.342/.704 -- which matches his career line fairly well.

 

You certainly can't argue that he hasn't been successful during his career with the bases juiced, but I don't think there's much there to indicated that it's more than some good timing &/or fortune.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Counsell has 98 career PA's with the bases loaded.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Split		G	GS	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	SH	SF	ROE	GDP	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip	tOPS+
RISP		687		1027	813		221	37	8	5	270	149	33	119	13	20	26	8	19	18	5	0.272	0.383	0.355	0.738	0.302	115
---		1084		2692	2399		599	118	18	27	27	266	0	340	23	0	0	20	0	0	0	0.25	0.33	0.348	0.678	0.281	97
Men On		896		1692	1393		373	59	12	7	283	202	33	191	18	45	26	18	61	95	42	0.268	0.362	0.342	0.704	0.3	105
1--		581		665	580		152	22	4	2	13	53	0	72	5	25	0	10	42	77	37	0.262	0.329	0.324	0.653	0.296	90
-2-		339		378	295		78	17	2	2	46	72	15	38	4	5	0	4	0	0	1	0.264	0.415	0.356	0.771	0.298	124
3		115		121	90		22	2	1	0	36	21	9	17	2	0	7	0	0	0	1	0.244	0.375	0.289	0.664	0.275	93
-12		245		271	222		53	6	3	1	38	30	0	33	4	13	0	2	9	5	0	0.239	0.34	0.306	0.646	0.277	88
3-Jan		86		85	69		17	2	0	0	32	8	0	9	0	1	7	1	2	13	3	0.246	0.298	0.275	0.573	0.254	67
-23		72		74	56		18	6	0	0	39	12	9	14	1	1	4	0	0	0	0	0.321	0.425	0.429	0.853	0.391	148
123		95		98	81		33	4	2	2	79	6	0	8	2	0	8	1	8	0	0	0.407	0.423	0.58	1.003	0.392	191
--3,lt	2 out	170		186	140		51	8	3	0	123	13	5	21	3	2	26	2	10	5	4	0.364	0.368	0.464	0.832	0.352	142
--3, 2	out	179		192	156		39	6	0	2	63	34	13	27	2	0	0	0	0	8	0	0.25	0.391	0.327	0.718	0.291	109

[TooLiveBrew]

One thing that jumps out is the BABIP with the bases loaded. (.392)

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

His career OPS is .688 in 4,384 PA's. His career OPS with RISP is .738 in 1027 PA's.

 

So that's a 50 point increase in clutch situations. Is that significant enough to say Counsell is a somewhat clutch player?

[TerraceReserved]

I'd say it's just statistical noise. In only 100 PA, the fluctuations due to randomness alone are pretty large. As an example, Jim Edmonds has 167 PA with the bases loaded. In them this is how he's hit:

 

.284 / .323 / .461

 

Over his career, he's hit .285 / .377 / .526

 

With the bases loaded, I want the guy who's hit better in 7000 PA, not 100 PA.

[kramnoj]

I think it would be interesting to see how the defenses played Counsell in those situations. Did the defense play in, so that it was easier for Counsell to get a hit? I think that has to be taken into account with a smallish # of PAs.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I think it would be interesting to see how the defenses played Counsell in those situations. Did the defense play in, so that it was easier for Counsell to get a hit? I think that has to be taken into account with a smallish # of PAs.

Another thing could be that Counsell is a great singles hitter when he gets pitches right down the middle and that tends to happen with the bases loaded with nowhere to put the runner while other hitters swing for the fences.

[owbc]

Yes, it's a small sample size and I'm tempted to say that he just gets lucky.

 

However...although I don't have any evidence to back it up, I suspect that other "slap" hitters like Counsell may be more likely to have success with the bases loaded than similar players who hit for more power. It seems to me like many home run hitters (from lesser ones up to Prince Fielder) tend to over swing with the bases loaded and thus have less success. Counsell just seems to be gifted at not putting pressure on himself in big situations--maybe his postseason experience has something to do with it.

 

So, there is probably some statistical noise, but I suspect that Counsell's approach has something to do with it.

[dadofandrew]

Luck, and the fact is, he seems to be aggressive with the sacks full, as opposed to just looking to get on.

 

He's a dandy reserve INF, defense, OBP, LH bat.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Counsell just seems to be gifted at not putting pressure on himself in big situations--maybe his postseason experience has something to do with it.

That pretty much defines a clutch player to me.

[rluzinski]

Does the results of 98 PA "prove" that it is clutch play? Of course not. If it did, you could prove all sorts of silly things by looking for odd splits with 100 or less PA. In the same vein, I can't disprove that Counsell is clutch either. Maybe Counsell takes advantage of pitchers throwing him more strikes in that situation. Who knows?

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Does the results of 98 PA "prove" that it is clutch play? Of course not. If it did, you could prove all sorts of silly things by looking for odd splits with 100 or less PA. In the same vein, I can't disprove that Counsell is clutch either. Maybe Counsell takes advantage of pitchers throwing him more strikes in that situation. Who knows?

How about the 50 OPS point increase with RISP over 1000 PA's?

[logan82]

Probably partly to do with the fact that pitchers are not afraid of throwing strikes since he has so little power.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Probably partly to do with the fact that pitchers are not afraid of throwing strikes since he has so little power.

That's one end of the spectrum. The other end of the spectrum is that he doesn't try to do too much and over swing.

[sbrylski]

Does the results of 98 PA "prove" that it is clutch play? Of course not. If it did, you could prove all sorts of silly things by looking for odd splits with 100 or less PA. In the same vein, I can't disprove that Counsell is clutch either. Maybe Counsell takes advantage of pitchers throwing him more strikes in that situation. Who knows?

How about the 50 OPS point increase with RISP over 1000 PA's?

Could be meaningful, 1000 PA is a very solid sample.

That said, even with the 50 point increase, I want someone that OPSs better than .738!

[rluzinski]

How about the 50 OPS point increase with RISP over 1000 PA's?

 

Has he been clutch? Yes. Does that mean we should expect him to continue being clutch? Maybe a little? I don't know?

 

You have to understand, there are hundreds of players in the league at any given point. Some are going to do much better or worse in clutch situation by random chance. Clutch is a tough thing to prove statistically. "The Book" tackled it and found some evidence of clutch, but the effect was pretty small. Here's a small snippet of the start of that chapter.

 

"One of the pervasive themes of this book is the danger of inferring too much from too little by underestimating the influence of randomness..."

 

http://insidethebook.com/c04.shtml

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Clutch is a tough thing to prove statistically.

Sure it is, but it still exists in my opinion. That's why it drives you nuts, Russ, because you can't put a number behind it. I wouldn't take that as a blemish on you though because that just means you are a very rational person. Maybe the Theory of Clutchness will be discovered along with an efficient way to do Nuclear Fusion and the way to prove that Global Warming actually does exist!

 

I digress. I do agree that a .738 OPS still isn't anything that great to talk about, but why can't Counsell produce at least that .738 OPS over 4000 PA's if he did it over 1000 PA's? Gotta love the sport of baseball.

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't think it drives people nuts, I just think that you have to admit it exists. Beyond that, what kind of impact it has is hard to pin down, imo

[RightFieldCoder]

At the beginning of last year Counsell was asked about his success with the bases loaded. He said he knows the pitcher wants to throw strikes and not walk him in that situation. So he becomes very aggressive with the bases loaded knowing the first or second pitch will be a fastball that catches a lot of white. I was explaining this to my mom yesterday when he came up, and sure enough he jumped all over the first pitch fastball.

 

I don't think that's luck, I think that's Counsell showing he's a smart hitter. He may not be a very good hitter, but he knows when the situation is in his favor and takes advantage of it. Just like Kapler saying on the B&B show that a pitch hitter should go up and look to hit the first fastball they see, since nearly all relief pitchers have a devastating offspead pitch.

[rluzinski]

That's why it drives you nuts, Russ, because you can't put a number behind it.

 

There's lot's of things in baseball and life that you can't prove or disprove with statistics. That fact does not "drive me nuts" in the least. Just the way it goes.

 

He said he knows the pitcher wants to throw strikes and not walk him in that situation. So he becomes very aggressive with the bases loaded knowing the first or second pitch will be a fastball that catches a lot of white... I don't think that's luck, I think that's Counsell showing he's a smart hitter.

 

If it just comes down to game theory, pitchers should be adjusting their approach to Counsell (especially if he's publicly given up his approach). It would be intereting to see if Counsell really has swung at more pitches in that situation. Someone start parsing that retrosheet data!

[Fatter than Joey]

I'd be curious what his GIDP rate with the bases loaded is as well.

[kramnoj]

I'd be curious what his GIDP rate with the bases loaded is as well.

 

The chart that is shown lists 8 in that situation.

[homer]

If this proves that Counsell is 'clutch' then I want to be the first to rip on him for only doing well in 1% of his plate appearances. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif