June Predictions

[BrewCrewForever]

And the best thing is we already did our business with the Cubs in their dump of a stadium. Now we get them at our home where we play very well.

[tigerbrew]

16-10.

[rluzinski]

That's awesome. I'd forgotten that. Right now, our head-to-head success with the Cubs is a huge asset, and I'd imagine it's going to play a large role in terms of how the season shakes out in October.

 

A 4-2 record against a particular opponent might as well be ignored. Heck, the Cubs outscores the Brewers in those games, 40 to 34.

 

The Scrubbies are on the road a lot and have to play the dreaded west coast swing at San Diego and LA.

 

To me, that road trip looks great for the Cubs. The Padres offense has been terrible and Peavy and Young are both hurt. Zambrano gets the start tomorrow. I'll be happy if the padres can get one. As for the Dodgers, Zambrano pitches in that series as well and the Cubs miss Penny (although he has gotten off to a poor start).

 

I wish Brewer fans would just accept that the Cubs are a very good team. Yes, they've played a lot of home games but the teams they've played against collectively have .501 win% so far. They also have the largest run differential in the league. They've earned their great record. They still might fall apart but there's nothing I see that suggests it.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I wish Brewer fans would just accept that the Cubs are a very good team. Yes, they've played a lot of home games but the teams they've played against collectively have .501 win% so far. They also have the largest run differential in the league. They've earned their great record. They still might fall apart but there's nothing I see that suggests it.

They do have quite a bit of players playing over their head though. Some of the Ryan Theriots, Ryan Dempsters, and Sotos will come back to earth. There will be some Derrick Lee and Fukudome slumps as well. I just don't see the Cubs as the 100 win team that they are on pace for.

[logan82]

TuesdaysWithRillo wrote:

I just don't see the Cubs as the 100 win team that they are on pace for.

I don't think anybody does, but 90+ seems realistic enough and I doubt we get that much.

 

[rluzinski]

They do have quite a bit of players playing over their head though. Some of the Ryan Theriots, Ryan Dempsters, and Sotos will come back to earth. There will be some Derrick Lee and Fukudome slumps as well. I just don't see the Cubs as the 100 win team that they are on pace for.

 

Right, they were expected to win around 88 games before the season started. Even if we say that the entire season has been a fluke for them so far and they are really still just that 88 win team, they should be expected to win 93 games. Woo Hooo!

[berniebrewer4life]

The cubs will come back to earth, yes they are a good team(good meaning high 80s to low 90s in wins), but not a great one. Man, if Yo doesn't get hurt, how many more wins to we have at this point in the season?

[Weirdos19]

The Pirates seem to fade big time in the second half. The Cubs have already played them 12 times. Only 6 left with Pitt. Good sign.

 

The schedule is outta whack this season. Usually, we follow the Cubs or they follow us. Why the big change?

[TooLiveBrew]

A 4-2 record against a particular opponent might as well be ignored.

 

Agreed. Just meant that to this point, that record means a bit in the standings. Not saying we necessarily 'earned' it. I think that the Cubs will have to suffer an injury for us to be on an even playing field. Unless their good luck is cancelled out by bad luck (and then some), I think they're clearly a tough team.

 

Beyond that, 10 head-to-head games remain. Are there such things as higher-leverage games?

 

July 28-31 @ Miller Park

Sept. 16-18 @ Wrigley Field

Sept. 26-28 @ Miller Park

[rluzinski]

Beyond that, 10 head-to-head games remain. Are there such things as higher-leverage games?

 

Absolutely. And if the Brewers might need to rely on a little good luck to catch the Cubs, I'd want them to play head to head as much as possible. A ball bouncing the right way kills two birds with one stone (Brewer wins nad Cubs loss).

[joepepsi]

I wish they were playing Colorado in Miller Park. The Orioles have been strong at home and pretty bad on the road. The Blue Jays have really good starting pitching and are on somewhat of a roll right now. Brewers don't do so well against strong starters. Probably true with most teams, eh? I'd be ecstatic with 15 wins.

[lukevan]

15-11 for the Crew

12-15 for the Cubs

 

3.5 back by July 1.

 

The Cubs are a good team. Add in the fact that they've played several more home games than road games and we shouldn't be TOO surprised by their start, though I would've guessed they'd be about 2-5 games lower in the standings. They'll have their skids at some point.

[TauPentaRei]

Brewers don't do so well against strong starters. Probably true with most teams, eh?

oh quite the contrary... seems like we are still immaturely guilty of playing "up" and "down" to whoever shows up.

 

tell this to:

Santana

Hamels

Wainwright

Penny

Beckett (moral victory only)

Hudson

 

[jhart05]

I predict the Crew will be within 4.5 games of the ScRubs by the end of June.

 

Going further down the road...2 games out when the ScRubs come to Miller park for 4 at the end of July, a tied Central Divison when they leave.

[pitchleague]

HOU: 1-0

ARZ: 2-1

at COL: 1-2

at HOU: 1-2

MIN: 3-0

TOR: 2-1

BAL: 2-1

at ATL: 1-2

at MIN: 2-1

at ARZ: 1-0

 

16-10 (45-38)

 

They better win in Phoenix since I'm there for all four games, darn it all!

[brewerinvegas]

Not counting the last game of the Astro series and the first game of the D-Back series (I like to predict series not individual games), I have us going 13-11 in June. The most important stretch will be the series at Houston, followed by the three home series against the AL teams. We HAVE to go a minimum of 8-4 in that stretch.

[rluzinski]

oh quite the contrary... seems like we are still immaturely guilty of playing "up" and "down" to whoever shows up.

 

Instead of cherry picking examples that support the theory (and you are certainly not the only one who's guilty of that), I wish someone would actually try to prove the longstanding belief that the Brewer offensive performances against good and bad pitchers are atypical. I think that fans simply have a tendency to overcompensate for pitching match-ups when trying to come up with their expectations for the offense that day. For instance Johan Santana has given up 4 or more earned runs in 47 of his 187 career starts (about 25%). Why should we be especially surprised that the Brewers got 4 earned runs against him this year?

 

Also, I think that fans sometimes get tricked into thinking a slightly below average pitcher with a 6+ ERA after 5 starts is completely terrible. I'll bet you right now that many Astro and Braves fans are wondering why their team always seem to get dominated by crappy pitchers like Dave Bush.

 

In reality, a 6.0 ERA pitcher still gives up 2 or less runs on occasion and a 3.0 ERA pitcher still gets hammered on occasion. Those are just the games that we remember more.

[brewcrew00]

Book me for 17-9. Time to keep riding this hot streak!

[DWadeMU3]

A 4-2 record against a particular opponent might as well be ignored. Heck, the Cubs outscores the Brewers in those games, 40 to 34.

Did I miss the press conference where MLB announced that run differential (not wins/losses) would determine the standings in 2008?

[zzzmanwitz]

2-4 in the last 6 games gets us to 16-8 in the month of June. I like our odds of a killer month.

[Dmiles23]

2-4 in the last 6 games gets us to 16-8 in the month of June. I like our odds of a killer month.

Shouldn't that be 4-2? By my count, the Brewers are 14-6 so far.

 

[zzzmanwitz]

my fault... 16-10 http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

I guess 3-3 would be better, 17-9 looks very good.

[Glennron]

I predicted 13-13 and they're already 14-6, yikes. Well I can't win the prediction anymore so they might as well finish 6-0 http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif.

 

 

[And That]

The average guess in the thread was 15-11. We just have to go 1-5 to meet the average expectation, but doesn't something along the lines of 17-9 sound a lot better?

 

The Cubs are 13-7 so far... I guess a 14-6 month only gets you one game these days.

[zzzmanwitz]

yeah, but it gains you 3 games on the WC leader (Cards 11-9 so far).