General Draft Discussion Thread

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't know if this has been pointed out or not, but Patrick (colbyjack) has been doing some work for NoMaas.org, a fantastic Yankees blog. The gf shot me a PM as a heads-up:

 

 

June 5th, 2008

Old friend to NoMaas, Mr. Patrick Ebert of both PerfectGame and Brewerfan shared a quick thought about the Mississippi reliever:

 

'Scott Bittle is a guy who doesn't profile as a true closer, but has one of the nastiest

pitches (a cutter, which I'm sure is of interest to Yankees fans since Mariano Rivera has

established himself as the best closer of all-time with this pitch) of all draft-eligible pitchers.'

 

Ebert told me before the draft that Bittle was a candidate to be a riser in the draft.

 

Expect some more in-depth analysis from Patrick throughout the next few days. He's a great resource and we appreciate him always joining us.

 

 

Glad to see you sharing your wealth of knowledge anywhere that is wise enough to listen, cj... and great to see you getting some more well-deserved recognition!

 

NoMaas link

[crewcrazy]

I like the fact that the Brewers took a bunch of young high-ceiling guys instead of just settling on college players. Drafting LaPorta made a ton of sense last year, but with so many picks in the Top 60 this year, filling the system with guys like Lawrie and Odorizzi is great. I was surprised when Odorizzi fell past the Cubs, but it looks like they elected to take September bullpen help instead (which might not be a bad idea if Piniella keeps burning through relievers this early).

 

I absolutely love the fact that Lawrie is only 18 and has already had success using wood bats against guys like Kyle Davis and Luke Hochevar. The lack of experience and competition in Canada is a little worrisome, but I think he's got the ability to be a fast riser in the system.

[1e Corbeau]

Yeah, I'd be more worried about Lawrie's competition situation if he didn't crush Extended Spring and Dominican Summer League pitching - with wood bats, to boot. Plus, being the Canadian national team ensures he's played even more high-stakes tourneys and competition. Perhaps his HS (or SS) not having a baseball team is ultimately a very good thing in regards to this.

It never seems like Jack Z. is shy about taking HS kids from the northern half of North America. There's Rogers, obvisously - and one could argue the merits/results of that decision - but even Odorizzi being from IL could have this comment applied to him. It seems that MO is if the kid is athletic (Rogers in hockey and soccer, Odorizzi as a WR and also at shortstop, Lawrie who sounds more like a man than a kid, and the speculated interest in Hewitt), they aren't too concerned about the competition.

[uwisfan]

I'm a little surprised at the distribution of players. We've been hearing about "best player available" and we've got pitchers, catchers, and shortstops.

[bball123h2]

The best player theory applies to the first 10-15 rounds or so. If you followed that the entire draft, you'd need to have one heck of an expense budget to sign all those guys. At this point, you need to make sure you can fill your rookie team rosters appropriately (also take into consideration who is in extended spring training).

[battlekow]

Apparently the Brewers were looking at Tony Delmonico in the fifth or sixth round but the Dodgers drafted him. Delmonico plays shortstop for Florida State.

 

 

 

Delmonico had been in contact with representatives from Milwaukee and the New York Mets, but the Dodgers weren't on the radar until he heard his name called.

"I didn't even get a call from the Dodgers," Delmonico said of his waiting game on Thursday. "I was on the phone with a Brewers guy who said they were going to take me in the fifth or sixth round.

"Right when I least expect it, they say, 'Anthony Delmonico goes to the Los Angeles Dodgers.' I was shocked and excited at the same time."

http://govolsxtra.com/news/2008/jun/05/delmonico-drafted-by-dodgers/

Delmonico is getting absolutely beaten up in the FSU-Wichita State game today.

 

[battlekow]

54 picks later...

 

26 RHP

8 LHP

7 SS

7 OF

5 C

1 2B

 

6 Canadians (Lawrie, Wawrzasek, Bucci, Knecht, Fogarty, Kottaras)

5 Michaels (Bowman, Marseco, White, Vass, Roberts)

3 Brandons (Ritchie, Garcia, Rapoza)

[LouisEly]

X, I'm somewhat with you on Schafer, and those pitchers would have been a little more exciting. But if he can turn into a Steve Finley type (even the pre-PED Finley) of CF that will do just fine. My beef is that I don't think they needed both Dykstra and Schafer in the top 3 rounds - one would have been just fine.

 

25 RHP and 6 LHP by my counts. Can't say they aren't trying to address the pitching situation, and I'm not complaining. Adams and Romanski could go to WV after a couple of weeks in Helena to help clear the logjam there. I think with Frederickson's control they will not want to bounce him around and keep him with the same pitching coach every year, so my guess is that unless he is lights-out he will stay in Helena. After looking at Romanski's numbers I'm a little less enamored with him, but he does have very good control and he could improve by focusing on pitching. Maybe he could be a poor-man's Mike Hampton.

 

My "sleepers" from day 2:

13th - Robert Wooten (I think he is everyone's sleeper)

14th - Corey Kemp (C-USA's POY)

16th - The 'Stache drafts The Stosh!

20th - Liam Ohlmann (looks like a serial killer, 72Ks and 33 hits in 55 innings)

28th - Brandan Garcia (slugged .881)

36th - Evan Bronson (19BB vs 102Ks in 83 IP)

[colbyjack]

The Royals draft looks good on paper with Hosmer, Montgomery, Sample and Melville, but there will be challenges signing this group of prep standouts. What are your impressions of the Royals draft so far and will they be able to sign everyone? Going into the draft, I liked Sample and Montgomery and hoped the Brewers would select one of them.

 

I think Melville is their back-up plan in the event they're not able to sign Hosmer, who is going to take a ton of cash and isn't opposed to walking away from big money to go play at ASU. I don't think they get both of those players signed, but crazier things have happened. They did a really nice job taking the players they did.

[battlekow]

Two sleepers I'd add are Eric Decker (if he signs, of course), merely because of his athleticism, and Austin (not "Sustin", mlb) Adams, who slugged .710 for Faulkner.

[1e Corbeau]

I don't know if you can call them "sleepers", but the guys from the double-digits I'm intrigued by thus far (thanks to colby's magnificent updated-by-the-minute scouting reports) are Miller, Sherrill, Stosh and Jeffers. Interesting combinations of velocity, athleticism and secondary stuff, all to varying degrees.

Seems like a solid mid-round draft. I'm hoping they can sign Stosh due to the Lawrie/Team Canada connections.

[colbyjack]

I have added scouting reports for the players drafted in the top 30 rounds. I hope to round out the remaining 20 players over the weekend, as I worked a 12-hour day and my eyes are burning after adding so many scouting reports in a short amount of time.

 

It's hard to get a read on the overall drafting effort of the scouting dep't. I really like the picks of Lawrie and Odorizzi, as they both give the system two potential impact players who could move quickly and should debut very high on the Power 50. I think it's the fact that the team took so many pitchers early and so many pitchers that profile in a very similar fashion to one another that makes it tough to get a read on the players they actuallly took. Odorizzi, Lintz, Adams, Lasker, Watten, Watten and Bowman are all very similar in size and stuff, and they all have a history of swing the bat. Any of those guys could blossom significantly by the end of the summer, and they all should form a very interesting pitching situation with some of the arms the team already has in the system.

 

Since the draft didn't feature too many hitters, keep an eye on Eric Komatsu. He's a very similar OF prospect to Luis Gonzalez, and I'm predicting he becomes the next fan favorite for those that follow the minor leaguers by the end of the 2008 minor league season. He should have no problems hitting at Helena, and could end the summer with the Power, possibly earlier than expected.

 

While many including myself predicted the Brewers would target pitchers early and often, I don't think anyone thought they would go as nuts as they did drafting as many arms as they did. I think they took more risks in rounds 20-50, as there might not be enough rosters spots in the lower levels to sign as many players as they did a year ago, which led me to believe that they might stop drafting players around the 40th round. They went the full 50, so don't be surprised if they don't sign a lot of their draftees, especially since they had so many extra, early picks, all of whom should be in the fold rather quickly.

 

Lawrie is a great pick in round one. I'm not so sure he sticks behind the plate, as he's probably more like Michael Barrett than Russell Martin, but the team can be patient with his development behind the plate. As guessed by many earlier, the team might have to move Lawrie elsewhere for the simple fact that his bat may carry him faster than his defense will.

 

Also, for a team that made it clear that they had organizational weaknesses at both catcher and third base, positions that Lawrie could play, they didn't really go out of their way to address either position, particularly third base. I'm not sure if this is just how their draft shaked out or if it may have to do with a renewed confidence in the players they already have in their system at those positions, but I personally found that to be an interesting storyline after looking at the players they drafted.

[igor67]

I don't know how the logistics are going to work out, but looking at rounds 5-20 I see some good value there. It may not strictly be true, but I think it is finding the players to develop in the middle rounds that separates the OK scouting directors from the really good ones. In this case there seemed to be a number of players who profiled as bullpen guys. Given the logistics and the need for the Brewers to get back to developing some relievers those are both good things. Unless you are the Devils rays and draft 1st or second every year for a decade I don't think it is possible to have a system without "weaknesses". The Brewers really were very over balanced on bats. I think it is more than reasonable to view Lawrie as a C/3B solution. Add in some middle infielders for general atheleticism and I think the draft effort makes a lot of sense. Compared to most points in the last 10 years catcher and 3rd base were both better stocked before the draft then they have been in general. Green and Gamel are pretty good potential and depth at third and Salome and Lucroy are pretty good for catchers. To a certain extent I would argue that those positions seem weak partially because 1st/OF is so ridiculously deep and strong. Also a person could make an argument that middle infield might actually be the weakest on the diamond.

[Never Outhustled]

1 thing to keep in mind when it comes to signing players this year is the changes in the slotting system. In the past, players drafted after round five were to be signed for no more than $123,300. That made it difficult to sign high schoolers with scholarships. This year, the amount has been raised to $150,000 and you may also sign 2 players for up to $250,000 without needing commisioners consent. The Brewers normally would sign about 25 to 28 players, but a few more might be possible this year because there are no DFEs.

[LouisEly]

Since the draft didn't feature too many hitters, keep an eye on Eric Komatsu. He's a very similar OF prospect to Luis Gonzalez

 

My thought was that he profiled more like a Drew Anderson with a little more power. He has some speed and good plate discipline. Maybe a pre-PED Gonzalez (another guy who "suddenly" found his power stroke after the age of 30 when he moved out west).

[Bambis Bombers]

Also, for a team that made it clear that they had organizational weaknesses at both catcher and third base...

Did the Brewers have any interest in Connor Gillaspie? Not that he was going to win any gold gloves at 3B, but he would have been a tremendous value at pick 35. If Green, Gamel or Lawrie do ultimately succeed at 3B, Gillaspie could be a future trade chip if his bat pans out as expected. I like the Frederickson pick, but it seems likely that he would have been there at pick 53. I know it's easy to play woulda, coulda shoulda, but Gillaspie seems to fit the best player available philosophy much better than Frederickson at pick 35.

[jjfanec]

Did the Brewers have any interest in Connor Gillaspie? Not that he was going to win any gold gloves at 3B, but he would have been a tremendous value at pick 35. If Green, Gamel or Lawrie do ultimately succeed at 3B, Gillaspie could be a future trade chip if his bat pans out as expected. I like the Frederickson pick, but it seems likely that he would have been there at pick 53. I know it's easy to play woulda, coulda shoulda, but Gillaspie seems to fit the best player available philosophy much better than Frederickson at pick 35.

I feel like Fredrickson is one of those high risk/reward players and the Brewers were able to take a calculated risk with the multiple picks they had. From what I heard Gillaspie would have been a nice pick but a big power pitching lefty sounds good to me too. My guess is the Brewers saw something in him that made them think he could really cut down the walks while keeps the K's up.

 

[1e Corbeau]

I could be just as easily wrong, but I don't think it was a result the extra picks. Sure, Frederickson is a high risk/reward guy, but he was soaring up the boards and they had him in for a pre-draft workout at MP that went really well. Late in the regular season, he went toe-to-toe with Matusz (I think, or another top-five pitching talent) and pitched a great game.

I guess I don't see the pick a necessarily being out of context for the Brewers (late riser, high risk/reward power arm) or for a college guy with control issues (Hochevar, for one, but I'm sure you could find a dozen college arms drafted around between mid-1 and mid-2 in the last three years with BB/9 over 4.5; granted Frederickson is higher than that...).

[colbyjack]

Fredrickson's upside definitely fits the team's approach to scouting. Huge upside, big-time stuff but rough around the edges.

 

Gillaspie is kind of the opposite type of player, as he's pretty much the type of player that you currently see: Lefty-hitter with great approach and high batting average, double-digit HR power but probably never will hit many more than 20-25 and his defense at 3B is a big question (he made a poor throw on a routine play that his first baseman was able to adjust to today, but I've seen him make similar throws in previous games this spring). If he can't stick at third base you have a light hitting outfield corner or first baseman in the mold of Dave Magadan. Nothing to scoff at, but again, the upside isn't there.

 

Oh yeah, I wanted to remind everyone to check out the official draft pick selection/signing thread as I have entered scouting reports for all of the players the Brewers have selected if you want to get to know them a little more. Thanks again to everyone else that contributed on draft day.

[battlekow]

Apparently, the Brewers considered drafting Kenny Moreland (MiLB.com page), a RHP from Christopher Newport University (VA). Figured I'd mentioned it for posterity in case he goes Mike Piazza on us.

[Dmiles23]

I'm just curious if there's a site somewhere that tells which first round draft picks have signed already? Thanks.

[Bambis Bombers]

I'm just curious if there's a site somewhere that tells which first round draft picks have signed already? Thanks.

Baseball America - Link

Perfect Game - Link

[WisconsinSportsRule]

Is anyone else concerned about Seth Lintz not signing yet? There was a report, but that must have been inaccurate. I would hate to see a 2nd rounder go unsigned.