June's Power 50 is Up -- Plus Your Earlier Predictions Here

[battlekow]

OBP does not directly translate to the Majors.

[tyguy20204]

Nothing "directly" translates to the Majors. Yes, I get your point that power translates better, but excellent strike zone judgment is usually a portent that a player will be a good hitter.

[twobrewers]

I am surprised Aguilar isn't higher.

 

I can't imagine what else he could have done to improve his status.

[TheCrew07]

I would have been right there with you if I hadn't listened to the 2 part interview, apparently he needs work on his secondary pitches and has been getting bye mostly on his fastball.

[battlekow]

Flanagan said he shows signs of having a good slider though, so it's not like he's going on nothing. The rest of this year at AA will tell a lot about his future.

[twobrewers]

Truth is Turnbow never had much of a second pitch either.

 

His slider/curve pitch was downright nasty - but he didn't throw if very consistently. You can't teach speed.

[TheCrew07]

Yep and what happened when he didn't locate it? Hitters learned to sit fastball and crush it, or he walked people.. you can only fool hitters for so long, eventually someone is going to figure you out if you're one dimensional. It doesn't diminish his prospect status at all, he just needs a bit more seasoning.

[dadofandrew]

OBP does not directly translate to the Majors.

 

I'm not sure what is a better sign of plate discipline than plate discipline. Considering Krynzel was rated a bunch higher, and he did nothing well other than run back to the dugout a tad faster, I'm a results guy.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Great job as always!

 

The surprises for me were: Brantley dropping to 11 and Cain rising to 12. Are these two really considered essentially equal prospects? Brantley is younger, at a higher level, and playing better than Cain. What tools does Cain have that make him such a high prospect (I'm seriously asking)?

 

Also, what is holding Derek Miller back as a prospect? Obviously the Brewers are not real high on him since he is 26 and still in AA. He seems to be doing well right now. Again one of the surprises. I was thinking he was going to move up not down.

 

I totally agree with the big jump up for Mike Bell. Funny, I also was just thinking he reminds me of Uggla somewhat. Hmmm, and Bell is eligible for the Rule 5 draft at the end of this year. Melvin, are you reading this...?

[igor67]

I was just looking over at baseball prospectus at some translated stats for Huntsville guys. They currently have Gamel's peak translation at .330/.400/.610, which is pretty awesome. More interestingly though according to their defensive system they had him as modestly positive for the year a +3. For comparison Escobar was +11.

[gregmag]

Thanks, P50 poobahs!

 

I'm as big a Brantley fan as anybody, and I certainly think OBP in the minors is a big deal. I can't really quibble too much with where he is, because there's a decent argument for everybody who's ahead of him to be ahead of him. But personally, I still think he's likely to have more value over time than Cole Gillespie. Al's right to emphasize age even more than he is to emphasize OBP.

 

Good to see Nelson and Katin in proper perspective.

 

Greg.

[battlekow]

The surprises for me were: Brantley dropping to 11 and Cain rising to 12. Are these two really considered essentially equal prospects? Brantley is younger, at a higher level, and playing better than Cain. What tools does Cain have that make him such a high prospect (I'm seriously asking)?

The fact that Cain actually possesses a smattering of power. Brantley is simply not going to be able to walk much in the Major Leagues without any power. Is he young enough to develop power? Absolutely. Is his plate discipline good? Of course. But just because he walks a bunch and never strikes out doesn't mean much absent any power.

 

[splitterpfj]

The top ten on this list is excellent - that's some real talent.

 

The downside - only three arms, one of which has had significant off-the-field issues, another of which is an erratic 25-year-old closer prospect.

 

This team clearly needs to add pitching to the system, which would make me think they'd go heavily in that direction during the draft. If that's the way the talent breaks this year, then I'm all for it, but I hope they don't reach for shaky arms, thereby wasting the golden opportunity they've got with so many early picks.

 

When you look at the current major league roster, and then look at the top end of the minor league system, you see the potential for some very exciting off-seasons, as the Brewers deal bats for arms. No matter who your favorite player or prospect is right now (short of Ryan Braun), you'd better be prepared to see him leave town - somebody good simply has to go.

[igor67]

I certainly agree that absent some more power Brantley would see a drop in his major league walk rate. However his contact rate is so exceptional I think there is still something very intriguing about his game. Take for example the best contact hitter I can recall short of Ichiro. Eric Young in his best years got about 40 Ks in 600 ABs. Brantley is doing significantly better than that at 11/214. Being that far on the extreme I think is something that will help him translate better than say Gwynn who walks some, but makes pretty poor contact for a guy with no power. He is even better than Juan Pierre and has the additional advantage of a way better walk rate at all minor league levels than Pierre ever did.

[uwisfan]

Brantley will likely suffer from Jason Kendall syndrome, which isnt necessarily bad, but he will ground into some serious double plays. Fortunately, he's fast enough to be leadoff (after the pitcher).

[LouisEly]

The truth is, Welch got P/O'd when he saw that he got dropped five spots in the Power 50, and he took it out today on the mound. "David's going to have to continue to be effective as a starter..." Yeah, I think he was today.

 

'Bout time Ryan got some love, but it seems like he has been jinxed since one Mr. Briggs pointed out his ERA.

 

Katin lead the Southern League in HRs, RBIs, and SLG last year so I'm not ready to give up on him just yet. His best value though could be as an extra chip thrown in a trade to a team in need of power and willing to take a chance (San Francisco? San Diego?).

 

The question for Iribarren, Crabbe, and Heether is whether or not Counsell will be brought back next year, and if not, how the Brewers plan to replace him.

 

And if catching is an organization weakness, then how come we have two catchers in the top 10?

 

Would it be a stretch to say that Brantley may be a Juan Pierre with a little less speed but better plate discipline? As maligned as Pierre is, the dude has played in 162 games five consecutive seasons and has four 200 hit seasons (and a fifth with 196). He ain't that terrible.

 

Finally, I think it is a safe bet that come September 1st, Mr. Nelson will be on a plane to Milwaukee. You've earned it.

[splitterpfj]

OK already, where do the new draft picks fit?

[battlekow]

1. Lawrie
2. Lawrie
3. Lawrie
4. Lawire
5. Lawrie
6. Lawrie
7. LaPorta
8. Gamel
9. Jeffress
10. Odorizzi

[Tedaldtada]

So, will Lawrie be top five off the bat? I would guess, um...well, maybe.

[gregmag]

Would it be a stretch to say that Brantley may be a Juan Pierre with a little less speed but better plate discipline? As maligned as Pierre is, the dude has played in 162 games five consecutive seasons and has four 200 hit seasons (and a fifth with 196). He ain't that terrible.

 

He's pretty bad, IMHO. We don't get excited when other guys rack up 200 hits in a season and a half; Pierre just gets half again as many ABs as other people by staying healthy, batting leadoff, and refusing to walk.

 

Agreeing to disagree about Pierre's merits, I don't really see the comparison. Pierre's offensive game is (was?) defined by speed and refusing to walk; that's who he is. Brantley is, at this point, defined by taking walks and being an excellent percentage base stealer. Yeah, they're both high average, low-power guys, so in that sense they're similar. But averages fluctuate, and Brantley has plenty of time to develop power. He has now (mostly since your post quoted above) more than doubled his career HR total in just over a week; if that's not an aberration, he could be a player like Juan Pierre never dreamed of being.

 

Greg.

[uwisfan]

My guess at next top 20:

1 Mat Gamel - I'm guessing there was a typo last time that forgot to put him first

2 Matt Laporta

3 Alcides Escobar

4 Jeremy Jeffress

5 Angel Salome

6 Brett Lawrie - the kids in the system are hitting so well, and you cant expect this guy to be a contributor any time soon

7 Taylor Green - personally, I think Lucroy should be here, but I wont fight the "man"

8 Luis Pena

9 Jonathon Lucroy

10 Jacob Odorizzi - sounds like a great pick, but HS arm so I'll get excited when he hits AA

11 Cole Gillespie - stock continues to slip

13 Michael Brantley

14 Lorenzo Cain - rising, but need to make room for the draft picks

15 Evan Frederickson - trusting Z here

16 Chris Errecart

17 Seth Linz

18 Zach Braddock

19 Cutter Dykstra

20 Cody Adams

[TheCrew07]

Braddock while a bit wild lately (the walks have cost him in every poor outing), should still be higher than Lintz imo, he's striking out more than 1 guy per inning in A+ (33 in 30 innings), that's not too shabby. For comparison's sake Jeffress has 36 in 26.1, I think both of those 2 guys are pretty projectable and Braddock is a lefty to boot, which of course infers an innate measure of studliness that is difficult to quantify.

 

Don't get me wrong, I really like the upside of the first 4 pitchers that were drafted, but kids drafted out of high school, having success at A+ should rated higher than a high school kid just drafted who's never thrown a professional pitch.

[LouisEly]

Pierre's offensive game is (was?) defined by speed and refusing to walk; that's who he is.

 

The comparison was based more on how minimally both of them strike out. Pierre may not walk a lot, but he also makes a lot of contact and puts a lot of balls in play - he has been the toughest guy in the majors to strike out over his career, and is #1 among active players in AB:K ratio. And it does not translate into DPs either - only 62 GIDPs in about 5300 career plate appearances, or only a little over 1% of the time.

 

We don't get excited when other guys rack up 200 hits in a season and a half

 

That is a big exaggeration. First, when is it a bad thing to be healthy enough to play in every single game in a season, much less mentally strong enough and good enough? Our leadoff hitter hasn't been able to stay healthy for a whole season. What good is a player when he's on the DL? Second, for as little as he walks, he has walked more times in his career than he has struck out. Third, with as much as he puts the ball in play coupled with his speed, he puts a lot of pressure on the opposing team. Is he an all-star? No. Is he "pretty terrible"? Not remotely.

[gregmag]

First, when is it a bad thing to be healthy enough to play in every single game in a season, much less mentally strong enough and good enough?

 

It isn't a bad thing at all, in and of itself. It isn't a helpful thing, though, when you take up space that better players could fill. Lots of healthy athletes are bad ballplayers.

 

Second, for as little as he walks, he has walked more times in his career than he has struck out.

 

Again, this indicates a certain skill, but not a useful one. Walks help to score runs. Not striking out doesn't help to score runs, when all you do with those balls in play is make outs in other ways. Pierre makes more outs than almost anyone in baseball.

 

Third, with as much as he puts the ball in play coupled with his speed, he puts a lot of pressure on the opposing team.

 

I don't buy this, and no one has ever shown it to be true. People just say it, as if it's self-evident. I don't mean to slam you in particular, because people seem to make this claim a lot, but can anybody show how grounding out a lot and being fast helps to score runs? Stolen bases, of course, do help to score runs, but that we can quantify, and it doesn't add enough to Pierre's game to justify his advocates' argument.

 

Is he an all-star? No. Is he "pretty terrible"? Not remotely.

 

As I suggested above, we'll have to agree to disagree. I think a guy with a career OPS+ of 84 who soaks up PAs day in and day out hurts the team a lot. I think, pound for pound, he's one of the worst everyday players in the game. Now, that's a somewhat misleading claim, because obviously lots of guys who don't get to play every day are tons worse; their deficiencies are plain. Pierre's particular offense is that his .300 average and speed make him look so much more useful than, IMHO, he actually is.

 

Greg.

[dadofandrew]

Pierre is a major league quality player, but he is far from an everyday LF. He's not a very good everyday CF, especially when you see him throw a ball.

 

He's simply been overused because of his one useful skill. As a 5th OF, he's outstanding. As a LF, I can name 50 better options...75 if you let me glance at the fellas in the minors.