Yost goes back to traditional line up / change in baseball

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

I'm certainly not going to try to psychoanalyze J.J. Hardy from a vantage point a million miles outside of the organization. If the motivation for the change was to put the "burden" of hitting in front of the pitcher on a vet like Kendall's shoulders, then so be it. It probably doesn't make a huge difference anyway, and it's at least possible it was messing with Hardy's head.

 

The only thing I want to make abundantly clear is that the only attempt I've ever seen to check whether it was actually harder to hit in front of the pitcher than elsewhere in the lineup reached exactly the opposite conclusions that conventional wisdom would suggest. This is about the third time I've linked to this Jeff Sackmann piece, so I apologize to those who've already looked at it:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-benefit-of-batting-eighth/

 

So, in short, if the idea is to help get Hardy going, I don't think it will work. Now, Hardy may start hitting better (which would be not in the least bit surprising given that he is a much better hitter than he's shown so far), but if that happens, in my view it's a coincidence.

[shelmark]

I'm not sure what part of the post toolive is referring to, but I too believe that Hardy did not like hitting in front of the pitcher and it hurt his production. It seems logical that some guys would be affected more than others by the thought that the pitcher is up next. Isn't it also true that the guy who hits in front of the pitcher is likely to get fewer fastballs, the pitch that supposedly Hardy is the best on the team in hitting?

[ESPNOwen]

I'm tryiing to come up with examples in baseball history in which change was slow to come but is now accepted. Certainly on base % was not valued by most of baseball until recently...right? Are there other examples like this? I guess I just can't stand the argument that if it's such a great idea, how come only Yost and Larussa are doing it?

[TooLiveBrew]

I too believe that Hardy did not like hitting in front of the pitcher and it hurt his production.

Hardy was best last season at #8, right in front of the P. I don't think it bothers him very much.

 

 

I'm tryiing to come up with examples in baseball history in which change was slow to come but is now accepted.

 

There was that whole race thing... there are lots of examples beyond that one, too. Merging the AL & NL was not a popular idea at first; the minor leagues were initially thought to be an expensive waste of time; making a foul ball a strike was fought heavily; catchers' gear was for 'sissies'... the list goes on & on. It's really not too different from other facets of live, I guess.

[shelmark]

Toolive,

 

If he is walking more, doesn't that mean he is not getting good pitches? I'm confused, can you elaborate?

[Gobias Industries]

When rluz posted the stats a couple of weeks ago, Hardy had saw the 2nd most strikes on the team. It's kind of a baseball myth that you're pitched around in front of the pitcher.

[shelmark]

Toolive,

 

You are correct that Hardy had his best season last year, and he did hit .314 batting 8th, but over 400 of his AB's and 19 Hr's came batting 2nd, not 8th.

[TooLiveBrew]

The contention was Hardy is uncomfortable batting in front of the P. Aside from his great production there last season(@ #8), this season shows that he's had good results in front of the pitcher, save his SLG. I think streams are getting crossed here... I wasn't contending that he's getting good or bad pitches, just whether or not his production supports the argument, "He's uncomfortable batting in front of the P". If anything, we have a larger data sample that speaks to the contrary.

[shelmark]

How do you know he saw the 2nd most strikes? Do they count swings as strikes?

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

I'm tryiing to come up with examples in baseball history in which change was slow to come but is now accepted. Certainly on base % was not valued by most of baseball until recently...right? Are there other examples like this? I guess I just can't stand the argument that if it's such a great idea, how come only Yost and Larussa are doing it?

Another really good example is pitch counts and innings limits, especially for young pitchers. Every organization does this now. As recently as 10 years ago, you were ridiculed if you thought that letting a 22 year old kid throw 140 pitches was a foolish risk. In fact, the entire evolution of starting pitcher usage from the 3 man rotation where every outing was a complete game to the current 5 man rotation with dedicated short relievers illustrates this point rather nicely.

[kramnoj]

Hasn't the 'bats in front of the P, therefore sees worse pitches' myth been debunked here?

 

The question isn't whether they see worst pitches. The question is what they do with the pitches. It also isn't useful to look at player population as a whole and then determine that every individual will conform to that standard. You also didn't mention that 3 of his 20 BBs are IBBs, and since you are using last year as an example, he had one.

[shelmark]

You were correct in correcting me Toolive, but you did point out that his best year was last year, in front of the pitcher. So although you were correct the information you provided was not entirely appropriate in support of your argument. I admit I am wrong, but at least you could admit to your mistake as well.

[TooLiveBrew]

Sorry, shelmark, trying to keep things straight here. Do you mean the info I provided was not supportive of my argument? I have no problem admitting being wrong... plenty of experience being wrong. I'm not trying to cherry-pick. I'm confused by your most recent post (#36).

 

 

It also isn't useful to look at player population as a whole and then determine that every individual will conform to that standard. You also didn't mention that 3 of his 20 BBs are IBBs, and since you are using last year as an example, he had one.

 

Good point -- I missed that. Even still, 17 BB over 170-ish AB is a nice improvement from his 2007 rate. I don't think everyone performs to the community standard, I just prefer the larger sample to the small individual ones; I disagree that it isn't useful. Imho, the only thing Hardy hasn't been at his norms with so far is the SLG, which (again, imho) will come.

 

 

EDIT: So although you were correct the information you provided was not entirely appropriate in support of your argument. I admit I am wrong, but at least you could admit to your mistake as well.

 

Ok, gotcha now. As far as I can tell, the argument was that Hardy is not comfortable batting in front of the P. I pointed to his success hitting in front of the P last season, which seems to refute that, as does (imo) his OBP this season. I didn't point to anything more than what he did in 2007 batting 8th -- I didn't refer to his season as a whole. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[joepepsi]

While it would certainly be time consuming, it's not that hard to figure out how many plate appearances Hardy has had this year batting 7th without the pitcher batting 8th. He's had 121 plate appearances overall batting 8th, with a .262 average and a .364oba. One would have to check each game box score to see how many of those 121 plate appearances were not followed by the pitcher in the 8 hole.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

As a response to some posts here, and in case Owen wants to tell Heller he's wrong, J.J. Hardy has seen a higher percentage of strikes so far this season than any other season of his career:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3797&position=SS

 

Look at the bottom of the page, the stat you're looking for is "Zone %". Here are the relevant numbers:

 

2005: 55.21%

2006: 53.98%

2007: 53.72%

2008: 55.63%

[shelmark]

Toolive, you suggested that since JJ had his best year last year that he does not mind batting 8th. You were right that he did have his best year, but he wasn't batting 8th. He was batting second. When he did bat 8th, he was very good, so in a round about way you were both right and wrong. I'm defintely wrong on all counts because I thought he had bad numbers in the 8 hole. I'm done.

[bjkrautk]

I'm tryiing to come up with examples in baseball history in which change was slow to come but is now accepted. Certainly on base % was not valued by most of baseball until recently...right? Are there other examples like this? I guess I just can't stand the argument that if it's such a great idea, how come only Yost and Larussa are doing it?

Along with a preference on OBP, sabermetrics is generally credited with the decline of sacrifice bunts (by non-pitchers) and a reduction in stolen bases (as only baserunners able to successfully steal more than ~70% of the time have a net positive effect on runs scored).

 

shelmark wrote:

---

Toolive, you suggested that since JJ had his best year last year that he does not mind batting 8th. You were right that he did have his best year, but he wasn't batting 8th. He was batting second. When he did bat 8th, he was very good, so in a round about way you were both right and wrong. I'm defintely wrong on all counts because I thought he had bad numbers in the 8 hole. I'm done.

I was also surprised to see that while looking at J.J.'s splits.

 

 

[TooLiveBrew]

Toolive, you suggested that since JJ had his best year last year that he does not mind batting 8th. You were right that he did have his best year, but he wasn't batting 8th. He was batting second. When he did bat 8th, he was very good, so in a round about way you were both right and wrong.

 

Thanks for clarifying -- I didn't mean to indicate that I was talking about his overall production... just what he did @ #8.

 

 

Hardy was best last season at #8, right in front of the P.

 

I see how you read my post now -- sorry for not being clearer! I meant, he was at his best at the #8 spot in 2007, based on how good his line was: .314/.330/.581/.911. For comparison's sake, at #2: .274/.322/.449/.771. I wasn't trying to be combative or snarky, sorry shelmark. I was just unclear.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

It also isn't useful to look at player population as a whole and then determine that every individual will conform to that standard.

 

It is probably true that not every player will benefit equally from hitting in front of the pitcher. Certainly not in a sample as small as 1/4 a season. The relevant question, however, is whether it is sensible to attribute Hardy's struggles to a phenomenon that not only cannot be empirically verified, but upon empirical investigation, looks to tend to cause exactly the opposite effects we hypothesized. No matter how many times Rock falls all over himself to explain how difficult it is to hit in front of the pitcher, that doesn't make it true.

[kramnoj]

The relevant question, however, is whether it is sensible to attribute Hardy's struggles to a phenomenon that not only cannot be empirically verified, but upon empirical investigation, looks to tend to cause exactly the opposite effects we hypothesized.

 

I think you are taking a brief statement I made to include things I didn't say. I never said or even hinted that JJ was seeing less strikes. I said that my observation was that he was swinging at more pitches outside the strike zone than I remember. I observed that in numerous games, but don't know if it's still true, or even if it was true in most games. Secondly, I said that I thought he looked like he didn't want to take a walk. I didn't say that this actually resulted in him taking less walks or more walks. Just that I thought he didn't look comfortable at the plate and that he felt more pressure to produce with the pitcher behind him.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

Owen, listening to the show right now. That was quite a trap you set for Heller there when you said "Are you arguing that Hardy wasn't seeing as many strikes?", at least assuming you'd seen the numbers I posted and were ready to nail him with those. Too bad he wriggled off the hook..."It's more complicated than that..."

 

I also thought you were spot on with the "nerds and pitch counts" stuff. I laughed out loud about the Bob Gibson bit.

[joepepsi]

I think the story of the first 50 games for every hitter in starting lineup is the opposing pitchers decided they would stop throwing cheesy fastballs down the middle of the plate, cuz the BrewKids will swing at anything. One by one they have been making adjustments.

[jazzytrav]

I guess I never understood why it necessarily means a player sees less fastballs just because he's in front of the pitcher. It really depends on the team that they're playing against and their strategy, as well as the game situation. There are many times where there is no one on base and Hardy may see better pitches because they want to get him out and have the pitcher lead off the following inning. I tend to think it all evens out in the long run, so if Hardy is uncomfortable for some reason, it's probably in his head.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

I think you are taking a brief statement I made to include things I didn't say. I never said or even hinted that JJ was seeing less strikes. I said that my observation was that he was swinging at more pitches outside the strike zone than I remember.

 

My apologies if I did. I thought you were taking issue with the Sackmann study I cited, which found that most hitters hit for a higher AVG and SLG and actually walk a bit less when hitting in front of the pitcher. As far as whether he's swinging at more pitches outside of the zone, fortunately we don't have to use our eyes for that. The same fangraphs page I linked to earlier has the data (O-Swing %):

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3797&position=SS

 

2005: 18.05%

2006: 18.08%

2007: 21.61%

2008: 20.12%

 

He's right in line with his career totals, and he's swinging at slightly less balls this season than last. Wanna know what I think Hardy might be doing differently that might be hurting him? Look at the percentage making contact on those swings:

 

2005: 59.46%

2006: 61.70%

2007: 67.77%

2008: 76.92%

 

This is the one piece of swing data that shows a meaningful change this year. Last year was his career high in outside of zone contact %, and this season he's jumped nearly another 10%. He's striking out too little. Yeah, I said it. He needs to miss the pitcher's pitches he swings at more often, so that he can make good contact on a hitter's pitch, even if it means he ends up striking out more often. When there's 2 strikes, he still needs to try to take a decent hack instead of hitting a little dribbler.

 

He needs to be more Hall-like in his approach. Not much more Hall-like, heaven knows we don't need another Hall in the lineup, but a little bit more. By contrast, Hall needs to be A LOT more Hardy/Kendall-like in his approach.

[JoeHova]

We have always been at war with Eastasia

sweet orwell reference. kudos.