Does Kapler's Pinch-Hit RBI save the season?

[truecrew]

First I just want to say this is just my thinking some of you will say "I see where he is coming from." Others will say "this guy is a moron."... I want to know if that hit by Kapler yesterday in some way saved the rest of the season? Loosing 3 of 4 to Washington would have been awful and to come back home after such a tough loss may have been the end for this team. But they pulled through and even tonight down 2-0 late I was pretty confident that they could come back. I think they believe they can come back. If the starting pitchers can just keep the games close I feel pretty good about our ability to win games late. Tavarez looked ok tonight granted he only through about 10 pitches. I think Torres is doing nice at the closer spot. I just feel good about this team these past 2 days and I think they are turning the corner...at least I hope! Want to see what you all think.

[rluzinski]

Before the hit, the Brewers had around a 50/50 shot at winning the game, so let's not get crazy. It was a big hit but there's a lot of big hits in a season.

[dadofandrew]

I don't know Russ, I think it was a must win.

[Glennron]

There's been like four games in the last couple weeks that the Brewers "turned the corner". Weeks walk-off hit against the Cardinals, winning the first two games of the Pirates series, McClung's win in D.C. Until they win something like four in a row or 6 of 7 I don't think they'll have turned the corner.

[twobrewers]

Did Kapler's hit heal Gallardo's knee?

 

Otherwise - no.

[brewtank34]

I second that Glennron....I'll take a 5-8 game winning streak, and I'll start to think differently. I also think that until Fielder starts raking, we will never have turned the corner.

[davego]

Well turnarounds do have to start someplace. It could be Gabe's hit. Maybe last night we saw Dave Bush turn it around and he will be a solid part of the rotation? Maybe Billy Hall is going to be the best NL PH from here out? Hope so...just hard to ID one moment out of 6 months of baseball.

[pretendastronaut]

I also have to echol Glennron. There have been several of these moments already and they've not been the catalyst we've hoped for. I can't get excited until we can sustain some winning and get back above .500.

 

I was however excited to see Hall's excitement last night after scoring. That was playing with some fire, which I think has been sorely lacking. To me, that was a moment that got me into the thinking that we're about to turn it around. But then I tell myself; there have been several of these moments already and they've not been the catalyst we've hoped for. I can't get excited until we can sustain some winning and get back above .500.

[zzzmanwitz]

As big a hit or game that was, it does not even come close to saving the season.

 

There is not sample smaller than 3-5 weeks that can "save" save a season. Not a pitch, AB, run, Home Run, Game, Series, or Week can change the outcome of a season drastically.

 

But I do love me some Gabe Kapler! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Tbadder]

Did Kapler or Hall's pinch hit save the season? I agree with Twobrewers; it all ended with Gallardo. But did they give enough impetus and inspiration to pull themselves up by the socks for the next couple of weeks and get slightly above .500, to start playing with some emotion and drive, I suspect so. I think they're due for a mini-run of good games. Sure, we don't have a chance for the playoffs, but we've got a chance to be a really entertaining team that deserves our support.

[zzzmanwitz]

I guess I don't see how you can say this team is not going to make the playoffs. Other than Braun, Hart, Kendall, and Sheets, none of our players have really played up to their potential, or even average expectations. If they are able to hang around for a month or so longer, there is no reason to believe that Melvin won't go after a mid to top end starter. We seem to have a lot of arms that we are willing to throw in the bullpen and maybe (just maybe) Ned is starting to hold some guys accountable for their performances. I'm not giving up yet, not saying its likely, but definitely still cheering hard.

[joepepsi]

Before the hit, the Brewers had around a 50/50 shot at winning the game, so let's not get crazy.

I don't see how that can be true. Maybe theoretically, but in practice the away team in an extra inning game must be at a disadvantage. That said, I don't think Kapler's hit saved the season, but it might have saved Ned's job.

 

They are playing better since that awful road trip to Houston and Florida. They're 9-9 since then, including the series at Boston. They actually played better there than they did at Houston and Florida. They were in all 3 games, in the end only let down by faltering pitching that couldn't hold a lead the last 2 games.

[BrewCrewForever]

Did Kapler's hit heal Gallardo's knee?

 

Otherwise - no.

Funny twobrewers. I think it could save the season if they go on a nice winning streak now off of that. They have won 2 in a row, if they win tonight and make it 3 it's a winning streak. But they need to win like 5 or 6 in a row off that game to make it really important I think.

 

[rluzinski]

I guess I don't see how you can say this team is not going to make the playoffs. Other than Braun, Hart, Kendall, and Sheets, none of our players have really played up to their potential, or even average expectations.

It's a fair assumption that the Brewers should be expected to perform closer to their preseason expectations (minus Gallardo) than how they have over the first 52 games. The problem is, they'd probably still not even be close to making the playoffs if they did. Even assuming that Melvin finds a direct replacement for Yo tomorrow (which is not going to happen), even the most optimistic projections had the Brewers winning about 89 games. They start playing to that level right now and they'll win 85 or 86 games. That's almost certainly not going to get them into the playoffs.

The Brewers are going to need to play great and get a heap of luck. With 110 games left, there's time for both but it's a long shot.

I don't see how that can be true. Maybe theoretically, but in practice the away team in an extra inning game must be at a disadvantage.

It's true that, from the start of any given extra inning, the home team has about a 52% chance of winning (they lose about half of the home field advantage in extra innings, for whatever reason):

http://winexp.walkoffbalk.com/expectancy/search/?start_year=1977&end_year=2006&team=V&inning=+&outs=0&expectancy[bases]=0&scorediff=0

Had Kapler struck out with the go-ahead run at 3B and ended that inning, the Brewers would still have had around a 1 in 3 shot of winning, however:

http://winexp.walkoffbalk.com/expectancy/search/?start_year=1977&end_year=2006&team=H&inning=+&outs=0&expectancy[bases]=0&scorediff=0

And even after the go-ahead single, the Nationals still had around 18% chance of winning.:

http://www.fangraphs.com/plays.aspx?date=2008-05-26&team=Nationals&dh=0&season=2008

That AB was huge but it wasn't a 100% vs. 0% chance of winning kind of AB.

[BrewCrewForever]

I got to be honest rluz, all of those stat things you use make my head spin sometimes http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[rluzinski]

That's just win epectency stuff. In its simplest form, you just look at how often teams have won in certain situations. For instance, it's good to know that the home team has won 54% of the time.

[Fike85]

To a certain extent, yes. I do not believe that Kapler's hit is going to springboard the Brewers to great things for the rest of the season. After all, even the Mariners and Royals will have inspirational moments. But if you take a look at what Kapler's hit did for the devoted Brewer fan then you might get a different answer. In the immediate sense it was Kapler's hit that brought a little more happiness to my Memorial Day. In a more long-term sense the hit temporarily delayed the moment in which I swear of baseball forever.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

But I do love me some Gabe Kapler! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

Tragically, just about everybody that watches Brewers baseball probably does at this point. Both inside and outside the org. Before we know it, it's going to be August, and Nedly will have given the vast majority of the season's high leverage RH PH ABs and the vast majority of the corner OF spot starts to a guy with a .280 OBP and a SLG under .400. Oh well, he's already done more to help the team win a few games than I ever would have dared dream before the season started.

 

Free Joe Dillon!

[endaround]

Its when Yost goes to Counsell with men on and Dillon still on the bench that I feel sick inside.

[Blindcheck]

As bad as the Brewers have played this year...They still are only 6 games behind the Cubs without seeing them in Miller Park this year.

 

I would love to see the Brewers about 6 games above .500 right now, but considering how poorly they have played, the team could be in much worse shape in the standings.

[nate82]

Starting to feel like they are starting to turn the corner. At least if nothing more this home stand should put some confidence into them. Having won a series at Pittsburgh where they haven't won one in a long time helped also I believe.

 

The hitting and pitching at Boston was actually good and I thought we could have won the last two games if it wasn't for the defensive blunders.

[Glennron]

I don't know if it saved the season, but apparently it told the pitchers to pitch very well for the next two games. And for the defense to improve, sans Hall I guess.

[Gopher74]

Sure, we don't have a chance for the playoffs, but we've got a chance to be a really entertaining team that deserves our support.

We don't? Why exactly is that? It's not like there is anyone in our division who's without flaws. With everything we're 4.5 games out. Saying we don't have a chance is ridiculously premature at this point. It may not be a good chance, but we've most certainly still got a chance.

 

[joepepsi]

The Brewers still have a very good chance of taking the division, as do most of the teams right now. They've played 31 road games while the Cubs are mostly home every game: 57% of games at Wrigley, .577 winning pct. The Cubs have played the Pirates 12 times (9-3) and Padres 4 times (3-1). They've also played 11 games against the Reds, Rockies, and Nats. That's 27 games against the 5 worst team in the league.

[rluzinski]

SOS matters but nearly as much as I think some think. The fact of the matter is, the Cubs are a better team than the Brewers AND they have a 6 game lead. It's not impossible to catch them but very unlikely. The Brewers probably have a better chance at the wildcard but even that's in doubt right now. BP still has the Crew's chances at 37% but I have to seriously question that assessment. Of coourse, they are also presuming that Gallardo is still pitching for the Brewers.

 

Look at it this way. It's probably a good bet that the Brewers will need at least 90 wins to make the playoffs. That's a 64-45 finish, or a .587 winning%. The Brewers will have to play like a 95 win team for the rest of the year. Possible? Sure, but there's no "very good chance" of anything associated with the post season happening to the crew this year, except them being eliminated from it.

 

That said, there'sa long way to go, so I'll still be watching with anticipation.