Outs on the Bases

[dadofandrew]

Hall could have easily been thrown out on that sac fly, but you still send him. It's just math.

[TooLiveBrew]

An aggressive attempt at the winning run in the bottom of the 9th is nowhere near a baserunning blunder like getting picked off 2B. Besides, a nearly perfect throw still couldn't get Hall -- it wasn't all that risky. Apples to oranges imo.

[dadofandrew]

Looking at it on replay, Blanco had no momentum going forward at all, and still almost got him. Erstad ended a game over the weekend on a ball about 15-20 feet deeper. With Braun up next, you could make the argument to have him stay...but you'd be wrong.

[TooLiveBrew]

You wouldn't necessarily be wrong, as I don't think it was a no-brainer call. Given the game situation (obv. including the foot speed of the runner), I think the correct play (not gamble, as I agree that the odds favored the score) was made. The result in this case supported that. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

Blanco had time to get in better throwing/crow-hopping position iirc, so it's further illustration that the right decision was to go for the tag-up -- force the defense to make a perfect throw. This is still vastly different from getting picked off 2B, which is much more what this thread's OP was about; not making a smart tag-up decision.

[AdvantageSchneider]

There's a difference between a close play at the plate and being thrown out by 25 feet. By your logic, the players shouldn't even bother looking at the 3rd base coach, if there are 2 outs and they get to 3rd, just keep going home. That doesn't sound like sound strategy to me.

[dadofandrew]

The coach has a good angle, if all it takes is a throw in the vicinity, you probably only have a 5-10% chance of scoring. But with 2 outs, if it takes a good play from the OF, a good throw to the cut off man, a catch and a good throw to the C, and the C to catch it...that's 5 things that have to go near perfectly. If they do those well, the runner might be out by 15-20 feet...if the OF throw is off, or the 2B bobbles it, or doesn't get a good grip on the ball, or can't find the catcher, or throws it on a short hop that's hard to catch, you might well score.

 

Again, it's math. Even with Braun up, you're only going to score from 3B with 2 outs 35% of the time...if you have a chance to win the game on a small mistake by an opponent, you go for it...and tell them good job if they can make the out.

[AdvantageSchneider]

I disagree with your math.

 

These guys are major leaguers, executing a throw in from the OF isn't that difficult.

 

I remember us making a few outs at home plate this year, I don't recall anybody who was safe at home b/c the throw in from the OF was that poor, or the cutoff man was missed.

[jazzytrav]

But with 2 outs, if it takes a good play from the OF, a good throw to the cut off man, a catch and a good throw to the C, and the C to catch it...that's 5 things that have to go near perfectly. If they do those well, the runner might be out by 15-20 feet...if the OF throw is off, or the 2B bobbles it, or doesn't get a good grip on the ball, or can't find the catcher, or throws it on a short hop that's hard to catch, you might well score.

I don't know how the cutoff man not having a good grip on the ball is the difference of 15-20 feet. These are all very broad terms...good, near-perfect, well, throw is "off", 2b bobbles it (little bobble or big bobble?). I don't know how you can draw the percentages you did by using terms like that.

[logan82]

AdvantageSchneider wrote:

I remember us making a few outs at home plate this year, I don't recall anybody who was safe at home b/c the throw in from the OF was that poor, or the cutoff man was missed.

Happened just this weekend. Bad throw from LF that Zimmerman had to field and he made a bad throw on top of that.

[dlk9s]

The other night, the hitter made no attempt to run to 1B as the ball bounced away from Jason. As Kendall picked up the ball, the umpire saw the runner halfway back to the dugout and called him out...I'd never seen that before, I guess if no attempt is made, you don't have to tag them.

If the runner was halfway to the dugout, then he was out of the base path and is out.

 

[dadofandrew]

In the past, I have seen catchers run all the way to the dugout to tag out a runner. Never seen an out call before the tag was made.

[dadofandrew]

Hall scored a while back on a close play when the ball was several feet away from home. I remember that the C caught the ball just as Hall was sliding...would have been out had the throw been good, but since "it wasn't even close", no one even mentioned it.

[TooLiveBrew]

Never seen an out call before the tag was made.

 

The rule is that once a batter heads far enough out of the field of play (back to the dugotu), he can be called out. I've seen many times a hitter walk away from a dropped third strike without even looking back. Sometimes the C will reach out to tag him, & sometimes he'll take a few steps to tag the batter. Many times, the out is just given without the tag, due to the batter's walk back to the dugout.

[jazzytrav]

Hall scored a while back on a close play when the ball was several feet away from home. I remember that the C caught the ball just as Hall was sliding...would have been out had the throw been good, but since "it wasn't even close", no one even mentioned it.

 

Was that the difference of 15-20 feet?

[Beast Light]

Weeks leads off the game with a double and is nailed at third trying to advance to third on a poor throw. He also ended up hurting himself. Why do other teams not do this?

[TooLiveBrew]

Make baserunning errors & get injured? Pretty sure every team does that.

[Beast Light]

Make baserunning errors & get injured? Pretty sure every team does that.

 

They don't seem to do it to the extent that the Brewers do. They seem to make so many foolish outs on the basepaths.

[TooLiveBrew]

This whole thread has been to attempt to tackle that question. I think the consensus has been that the Brewers do it just about the same as the rest of the league... or if not, they're not far away from the middle of the pack.

 

OP: It seems as if the Brewers make a silly out on the bases in pretty much every game they play. Does anybody know how many they've made in relation to the rest of the league?

 

 

Post #8: I don't recall more than a out or two at home all year, and none without 2 outs (or on contact plays with a runner at 3B). Hart and Weeks get thrown out trying to steal once in a while, but I'm not sure where "all these outs" are coming from.

 

I would compare this to the supposed "we've blown so many late leads", when in reality, they're about 20-2 when leading after 8. Just trying to assign blame when the real problem is simple; low OBP, subpar SLG, and a high ERA.

 

Those are pretty difficult things to fix, however, so folks look for easy problems...however, they are rarely anything more than imaginary.

 

 

Post #12: To me, it seems like we make more outs on the bases then our opponents do against us. I have no stats to back that up though. If my hunch is right it doesn't necessarily mean that we make more outs on the bases than other teams, it could mean that don't execute in those same situations when we are in the field.

 

 

Post #13: the Crew has picked off several runners at 1B, Braun has some assists, and so on.

 

 

Post #15: I don't mean to suggest that some topics are not worthy of being explored. We just don't even know if it's really a team deficiency, much less whether it's easy to fix. Fans always think their team:

 

* Makes too many outs on the bases

* Doesn't get enough clutch hits

* Gives up too many 2 strike/2 out hits

* Doesn't move the runners over often enough

* Doesn't score a lead off double or runner at 3B with less than 2 outs often enough

 

And on and on. As a fan, that stuff always seems to occur more often than they should. Often, I just don't think we can eyeball that kind of stuff and know if our team really is worse than average. We need to look at the numbers.

 

 

Post #20: I remember a game against the Cardinals where Pujols made 3 outs on the bases and there were at least 2 hit and runs that went bad.

 

I would guess it is tough to tell if we are worse than other teams and the Brewers just look bad because we see them everyday.

 

 

Just to recap. I don't think we can trust 'seems like', because not many people here really watch enough of every other team to compare fairly.

[rluzinski]

Arizona makes an out on the base paths to end the inning. Their fans must really be sick of that this year.

[lcbj68c]

Rickie Weeks gives away an out....No Way!!!!

[TooLiveBrew]

Another out for ARI... it's almost like other teams do this too. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

 

(Kendall threw out Drew in top 5th)

[rluzinski]

I finally tried to estimate "out on bases" for every NL team so far:

 

Team	GP	AB	R	H	SB	CS	BB	HBP	GDP	LOB	ROE	OOB
Houston Astros	61	2070	274	539	63	20	173	17	32	405	38	56
St. Louis Cardinals	62	2126	289	588	27	12	265	14	57	505	39	55
Cincinnati Reds	61	2062	270	522	45	21	233	9	41	440	38	51
San Diego Padres	62	2168	226	520	20	6	224	21	43	484	39	51
San Francisco Giants	60	2062	237	535	53	21	179	20	51	433	38	51
Los Angeles Dodgers	60	2023	262	535	50	20	202	15	59	419	38	50
Chicago Cubs	61	2150	346	615	42	17	255	25	44	497	38	46
Arizona Diamondbacks	60	1994	292	506	23	8	226	21	38	419	38	42
Colorado Rockies	60	2090	247	531	46	14	207	20	46	461	38	42
Milwaukee Brewers	60	2060	269	521	40	17	191	33	34	441	38	39
Florida Marlins	59	2025	289	526	29	11	181	18	34	403	37	36
Pittsburgh Pirates	60	2115	294	549	16	6	197	24	37	441	38	36
Atlanta Braves	61	2095	290	580	22	9	239	10	58	487	38	32
Philadelphia Phillies	62	2132	328	560	41	6	229	23	35	457	39	31
Washington Nationals	61	2029	229	474	23	11	203	30	54	432	38	30
New York Mets	59	2030	282	516	56	14	233	12	44	443	37	29

I say "estimate" because I can't find ROE (reached on error) on a team level. So instead, I found the average number errors per game and gave each team the same rate. The equation i used was:

 

OOB = H +BB + HBP + CI (catchers interference) + ROE - LOB - GDP - R

 

So what I am defining as an out on the bases is:

 

* Out trying to advance

* picked off

* caught stealing

* runner's interference?

 

I did this quick. See any problems?

 

Man, those Astros fans must be pissed!

[logan82]

After that last series I was going to say that the D-Backs were the worst team ever on the bases. Guess I would have been wrong.

[Fike85]

A massive tip of the cap to Russ for doing some research on this subject. I actually started this thread with the hope that Russ would be able to pull something up...lo and behold he came through! Thanks for the help and slight restoration of my sanity!

[Fatter than Joey]

This should be normalized against OBP, or something -- the Nats are on the bottom, probably because they can't get on base.

 

The Braves seem like a "Good OOB" team, the Reds a bad one.

 

Does GDP mean "grounded" strictly?