Outs on the Bases

[Fike85]

It seems as if the Brewers make a silly out on the bases in pretty much every game they play. Does anybody know how many they've made in relation to the rest of the league?

[kramnoj]

I realize your point is general, but today Fielder paused to look at his hit, which might have cost him the time to be safe. Of course, being a leviathan doesn't help his speed either.

[moofnelson]

I realize your point is general, but today Fielder paused to look at his hit, which might have cost him the time to be safe. Of course, being a leviathan doesn't help his speed either.

 

Leviathan: A very large animal, especially a whale.

[istanbultaye]

The definition left out 'scary'. There's plenty of large animal whale people in the US, but not too many of them can hit the ball off the wall let alone then making it even a close play at 2b too.

[2hoophead]

The definition left out 'scary'. There's plenty of large animal whale people in the US, but not too many of them can hit the ball off the wall let alone then making it even a close play at 2b too.

It wasn't all that close of a play

 

[brewjihad]

Doesn't help having Wave-em-home Sveum at third. Thank goodness the guy isn't a school crossing guard.

[craigharmann]

Fielder didn't take off right out of the box, and he was easily out at 2nd. It really wasn't close at all. He flat out didn't hustle from the get-go.

[istanbultaye]

Sorry, I didn't see the play. Still, a lot of people get held to singles on hits off the wall. Did he hit it to dead center or something where it should've been a no doubt double? And I'm pretty sure Svuem has nothing to do with runners going the extra base to second, as he's not in the field of vision of the runner.

[dadofandrew]

I don't recall more than a out or two at home all year, and none without 2 outs (or on contact plays with a runner at 3B). Hart and Weeks get thrown out trying to steal once in a while, but I'm not sure where "all these outs" are coming from.

 

I would compare this to the supposed "we've blown so many late leads", when in reality, they're about 20-2 when leading after 8. Just trying to assign blame when the real problem is simple; low OBP, subpar SLG, and a high ERA.

 

Those are pretty difficult things to fix, however, so folks look for easy problems...however, they are rarely anything more than imaginary.

[jazzytrav]

And I'm pretty sure Svuem has nothing to do with runners going the extra base to second, as he's not in the field of vision of the runner.

 

I'm fairly certain Brewjihad was making a comment on the general topic of the thread, not the tangent of Fielder's single/double.

 

I don't recall more than a out or two at home all year, and none without 2 outs (or on contact plays with a runner at 3B). Hart and Weeks get thrown out trying to steal once in a while, but I'm not sure where "all these outs" are coming from.

Hall has made a couple by himself. I don't think it's too far of a stretch to say the Brewers have been making some baserunning blunders this year. That's why the original poster asked the question of how the Brewers fair in relation to other teams...a question that wasn't answered. I'm not sure why you question someone's objectivity when they make a clear attempt at remaining objective.

 

 

I would compare this to the supposed "we've blown so many late leads", when in reality, they're about 20-2 when leading after 8.

What's our record when leading after 7? Or maybe 6? People have different definitions of a "late lead", so I don't think it's fair to question that statement without looking at all the statistics instead of saying that it's "about" something.

Those are pretty difficult things to fix, however, so folks look for easy problems...however, they are rarely anything more than imaginary.

How's this for an easy problem to fix:

Don't steal 3rd with 2 outs.

Don't send the runner home when the ball has already made it to the cutoff man.

Don't get picked off at second with 2 outs.

 

Just those simple things can change the outcome of one or two games and put us at or above .500 right now. I agree that you can't point to that as THE problem, but I think it has to be recognized that it can have a significant impact in some places.

[rluzinski]

Just those simple things can change the outcome of one or two games and put us at or above .500 right now. I agree that you can't point to that as THE problem, but you also have to recognize that it can have a significant impact in some places.

 

It's not like other teams don't get picked off, get caught stealing in bad situation or get thrown out at the plate. If those things never happened, they are probably being too conservative to begin with. It's hard to say if the Brewers have made too many mistakes. I'd rather they not hit and run and attempt double steals less often but that's a managing philosophy issue. If a Brewer runner doesn't take a good lead at 2B, this board would be the first to complaint that our players never seem to score from second on a base hit. If they never risk getting thrown out at the plate, they'll leave too many runners stranded at third.

 

I think dadofandrew is right. The biggest issues are obvious and make up about 98% of the problem. We can focus on the other 2% but it seems like we'd be doing it more for convenience than anything else.

[jazzytrav]

I agree that the biggest issues make up 98% of it, but those topics have been beaten to death. What's the harm in asking if something easy can be done to fix the other 2%? Yeah, people are looking for easy fixes. But why not look for some easy fixes to steal a game somewhere, rather than sit around and wait for the SLG% to go up?

 

And Hall getting thrown out at 2nd had nothing to do with how big his lead was...he just wasn't paying attention. I know that's only one example, but I believe that was the one being referred to.

 

It's not like other teams don't get picked off, get caught stealing in bad situation or get thrown out at the plate.

 

Understood, which is again why the original poster asked how we fair in relation to other teams, and that question has yet to be answered.

[Eddiehitsthefoulpole]

To me, it seems like we make more outs on the bases then our opponents do against us. I have no stats to back that up though. If my hunch is right it doesn't necessarily mean that we make more outs on the bases than other teams, it could mean that don't execute in those same situations when we are in the field. It also seems that things have been a little more even in the last couple of weeks. I do know that Ned's public explanation for the 3rd base coaching change this year was to get more aggressive on the bases.

 

As a basketball coach I hate turnovers. I tend to equate outs on the bases like turnovers in basketball. I probably get irrational over outs on the bases. Maybe I am just an Earl Weaver/Bill Virdon fan.

[dadofandrew]

Russ is correct, and the general piling on looking for this and that is silly. I do not recall Hall getting thrown out at 2B, so maybe I'm missing something, but the Crew has picked off several runners at 1B, Braun has some assists, and so on.

 

I also recall a couple times being shocked the runner was sent, and he made it easily, because the throw was off 5 feet. Bill Schroeder said once "Dale must have known his arm is bad", because the OF was letting the ball go on a base hit before the runner got to 3B. Again, you should get guys thrown out with 2 outs, as you have a 35-40% chance of that run scoring...so if Dale sends a guy knowing he has a 55% chance of being thrown out, it's still the "right" move.

 

But, many fans don't get it.

[jazzytrav]

I do not recall Hall getting thrown out at 2B, so maybe I'm missing something

 

Opening day.

 

Russ is correct, and the general piling on looking for this and that is silly.

Is this your gut-feeling or do you have more of an explanation? And Russ provided his opinion without completely dismissing the other opinion, rather than just dismiss it as silly.

 

But, many fans don't get it.

I don't quite understand how you can "get it" any more than someone else without providing any kind of statistic other than some questionable percentages.

 

I'm not trying to pick a fight or say that I'm right, but I just don't understand how you can just turn a blind-eye just because you think it's silly. I'm not sure if the Brewers are worse than any other team with baserunning skills, but it sure feels like it some times, and I can't see any stats that show otherwise. If there are, then I want to see them so that I can feel better about our baserunning.

[rluzinski]

What's the harm in asking if something easy can be done to fix the other 2%?

 

I don't mean to suggest that some topics are not worthy of being explored. We just don't even know if it's really a team deficiency, much less whether it's easy to fix. Fans always think their team:

 

* Makes too many outs on the bases

* Doesn't get enough clutch hits

* Gives up too many 2 strike/2 out hits

* Doesn't move the runners over often enough

* Doesn't score a lead off double or runner at 3B with less than 2 outs often enough

 

And on and on. As a fan, that stuff always seems to occur more often than they should. Often, I just don't think we can eyeball that kind of stuff and know if our team really is worse than average. We need to look at the numbers.

 

Does any website keep track of OOB (outs on base) or do we need to estimate it indirectly?

[kramnoj]

Presumably one could go through recaps to see when players make an out on bases, Would be a fair amount of work, unless it is out there and we're not aware of it.

 

If we just look at SB%, right now the Brewers are in the lower third of teams with a 69% rate. There are 15 teams with a rate of 75% and higher, but it's still early, yada yada yada.

 

I know Hart has made at least two outs at home with the run on contact play. It's annoying when it happens, but I understand the reasoning.

[dadofandrew]

The team won Opening Day, so who cares about Hall? Ditto for Prince yesterday. Arguing that one out of 27 shows how much poor baserunning hurts the team, and giving examples in a pair of wins?

 

Russ' examples are very good. What's funny is, according to Aaron Gleeman, people still say how well the Twins do all the little things, even though they suck at them.

 

It's a lot like OXS being 98% accurate in determining runs scored, and folks trip over themselves to talk about everything except the 98%. Can't see the forest, all these darn trees are in the way.

[kramnoj]

The team won Opening Day, so who cares about Hall? Ditto for Prince yesterday.

 

If a poor approach on the bases needlessly results in outs, it should be corrected so that the approach doesn't lead to losses later in the season.

[jazzytrav]

Russ' examples are very good.

I agree with Russ's post. The difference is that Russ isn't just dismissing it as a silly argument and acting like we're all ready to jump off the bandwagon.

 

And the examples given are just examples, not proof of anything. No one was trying to prove anything. The question that was asked is if anyone knows how we compare to other teams in baserunning mistakes.

[logan82]

To me, it seems like we make more outs on the bases then our opponents do against us.

I don't know, I remember a game against the Cardinals where Pujols made 3 outs on the bases and there were at least 2 hit and runs that went bad.

 

I would guess it is tough to tell if we are worse than other teams and the Brewers just look bad because we see them everyday. Then again maybe we are bad.

[dadofandrew]

Milledge went from 2B to 3B on a grounder to SS.

 

Pujols was picked off when they played the Crew.

 

The other night, the hitter made no attempt to run to 1B as the ball bounced away from Jason. As Kendall picked up the ball, the umpire saw the runner halfway back to the dugout and called him out...I'd never seen that before, I guess if no attempt is made, you don't have to tag them.

 

Withing the last 10 days, an opposing runner forgot how many outs there were and led to an easy DP.

 

Mistakes are mostly just goofs, like errors. They are too bad, but they happen, and I just figure they go in the "all evens out" camp until proven otherwise (Braun last year, Weeks a couple years ago).

[AdvantageSchneider]

I don't recall more than a out or two at home all year, and none without 2 outs (or on contact plays with a runner at 3B). Hart and Weeks get thrown out trying to steal once in a while, but I'm not sure where "all these outs" are coming from.

They had two in one game. It was the cubs series, it might have even been the game Yovani got injured in. Prince got nailed at the plate by 5 feet and tried to run over Soto and then in the 9th weeks got nailed by like 15 feet at home with 1 out and prince coming up next. Literally weeks wasn't even in the picture on TV by the time Soto had the ball.

 

Do you also count the failed suicide squeze where Kendall missed the sign and I believe it was Hart got caught in a rundown as an out made at home?

 

The brewers have not been good on the bases outside of Corey Hart.

[dadofandrew]

Both the examples given were with 2 outs, when again, you should be sending the runner even if they have a 55-60% chance of being thrown out. Make them make a perfect throw, and tip your cap if they do. It's all just math, just like hitting on 16...you're going to bust most of the time, but it's still the right move.

[logan82]

dadofandrew wrote:

Pujols was picked off when they played the Crew.

He also got doubled off, which was somewhat unlucky, and I think he rounded 2B to far or something and made another out on the bases, may have been a 1st to 3rd try where he didn't make it. I would have to check my scorebook to see for sure. All in one game. In the same game there were also 2 hit and runs that went bad, but Pujols was involved in one of those I think.