Fielder's value (and availability)

[southpaw121505]

Which pitchers in our rotation right now at "at best" just 4 or 5's? Parra? Certainly not. McClung? Nope. I think you're overstating this. Right now I'd call both 4/5's, and McClung not even that, and they may never reach that potential, but "at best" taken literally, they're far more than that.

Are you saying McClung is more than a 4/5 long term? If you are, I disagree. My point is if we need another top starter, you are assuming Sheets comes back, if he does that obviously qualifies as one. But, if we go into next year with Gallardo, Suppan, Parra, Bush, CV/McClung we will not make the play-offs.

 

I think Parra has a lot of POTENTIAL, but right now he is no more than a back of the rotation guy, and even next year I'd feel more comfortable with him as a 4 than a 3. Suppan should not be any more than a 3, obviously the Gallaro injury forces him up, but if Sheets leaves were back in the same boat. Bush should be a 5 if that, same with McClung.

 

 

[jjfanec]

This team needs another top end pitcher with Sheets more than likely leaving next year. We would have Yo who is a 1/2 guy, Soup who is at best a 3, Parra who hasnt proved much, Bush who is lucky to be in the rotation and Villy who has not shown consistency. Prince's real trade value is two-fold. He could easily fetch a young stud arm who projects as a Gallardo type, they wont get an established ace for him I dont think. The second value is the money saved on him could be used in numerous places either locking up young guys, retaining Sheets or getting another arm. If you could keep Sheets and get a young arm as a result of trading Prince the rotation could be downright filthy for the near future. Sheets, Yo, Suppan, Pitcher from Prince trade, and Parra is a great rotation. Also it could keep Villy in the pen where he seems to flourish. Bush would be the odd man out but with his inconsistency it would not be a terrible thing. However, the only way you trade Fielder in my mind is if you can get that young Kershaw-type (maybe not Kershaw though since his hype and talent may have driven his trade price really high). We also would need to find another left handed bat somewhere. Even if Gamel comes up that leaves us with the same right-handed dominated lineup we have now.

[tigerbrew]

Just a thought. With Sexson sucking badly in the last year of his contract and Seattle sinking out of the race, I wonder if the Mariners are interested to trade Felix Hernandez for Prince. I read that they are currently looking for a 1B.

[southpaw121505]

I would pounce....pounce, if we could get pull of a deal based around Prince and King Felix.

 

 

from jjfanec's post:

Sheets, Yo, Suppan, Pitcher from Prince trade, and Parra is a great rotation. Also it could keep Villy in the pen where he seems to flourish. Bush would be the odd man out but with his inconsistency it would not be a terrible thing.

 

Bingo. You'd have a good 1-3, with two high potential guys at the back. If Parra and the other guy reach potential, or even one of them, that's a championship caliber rotation. I don't care if you lose some some offense from Prince to LaPorta.

[Fatter than Joey]

Which pitchers in our rotation right now at "at best" just 4 or 5's? Parra? Certainly not. McClung? Nope.

 

McClung's ceiling is a #5 -- he is an emergency starter at best -- Also, while I think Parra could be a solid SP, he is nowhere near a 1/2.

 

I think the wisdom of trading Prince now, is that is stock, while falling, is probably still high, and there may be NL teams at this point that may take a chance with his D.

[jjfanec]

I think the wisdom of trading Prince now, is that is stock, while falling, is probably still high, and there may be NL teams at this point that may take a chance with his D.

I agree with Joey in this point. If we trade Prince this off-season the number of suitors will be higher because a NL team would still like 3 years of Prince. If we wait a year or two the number of teams willing to trade top-end, major-league ready prospects will begin to move to only AL team especially if we wait two years. The only teams that will lock Prince up to a long-term deal after he hit free-agency would probably be an AL team or an NL team that does not have a high value on defense and really needs a bat.

[brewerinvegas]

I would feel more comfortable about trading Prince after this season is LaPorta was performing the way he is at AAA instead of AA. Maybe a mid-season promotion will help clarify this.

 

On the other hand, if Prince is traded this off-season, that might free up enough payroll room to be able to resign Sheets. Assuming Prince will get $9-10 million in arbitration, that's not far from what it would probably take to sign Sheets (I'm guessing $12-14 million per). I don't think the Brewers have the finances to be able to keep both. If we were able to resign Sheets, the top-flight pitching prospect(s) wouldn't have to be as major league ready.

[sbrylski]

This is starting to eat at me a bit:

 

Prince Fielder is not going anywhere this season, and in all likelihood he's not going anywhere this offseason.

 

His trade value is going to be basically the same for the next 1.5 seasons and that following offseason. Why trade him before we have to?

 

Why would another team trade us a starter or package of pitchers that will have more years remaining, and will be worth more wins than Fielder? If you're expecting us to get younger and improve and not willing to accept prospects, it is the Brewers that will need to send prospects with Prince.

 

We could trade Prince for some hot AAA pitching prospects, but why, and why now? We still have a young core that we can extract more wins and value out of before their trade value takes a hit - with some of them hanging on longer could boost their trade value. We'd be essentially giving up on this season, and waiting a year or two for the pitchers we get to establish themselves in the bigs, just in time for the other offensive players to be up for free agency.

 

Offseason post-2009 is a different story - Gamel, Escobar, Salome, and maybe some of our lower minors pitchers will start taking over major roles, and Hardy (1), Weeks (2), Hall (1), Fielder (2), Hart (2), all near the end of their six years of service time. Hopefully by then Hart and maybe Weeks are locked in, but it'll be that time to really make decisions on players, trade the ones that won't be around long-term, and quick re-tool for a new chapter.

 

We're staying with the team we have until the end of 2009. Maybe try to hit on another 1 year contract for a vet or two next offseason.

 

Prince will go on a little streak at some point, the Brewers will go on a streak at some point, and trading Fielder discussions will disappear.

[southpaw121505]

Why would another team trade us a starter or package of pitchers that will have more years remaining, and will be worth more wins than Fielder?

I guess no trades should ever be made. A team can value his offense and feel they have enough pitching to part with an arm to improve their offense. I thought that was the point of trades. Use a position of strength to try and improve a position of weakness.

 

You are probably right about the core staying through 09. Mainly because Melvin won't have the balls to move Fielder. That doesn't mean a move like that wouldn't improve the team though

 

I also don't get how two years of a player is ever worth as much as three years of the same player.

[sbrylski]

I guess no trades should ever be made. A team can value his offense and feel they have enough pitching to part with an arm to improve their offense. I thought that was the point of trades. Use a position of strength to try and improve a position of weakness.

 

I would say, unscientifically, a very high percentage of trades are vets for prospects or to clear salary. When is the last time young, established big names were swapped for each other?

 

I also don't get how two years of a player is ever worth as much as three years of the same player.

 

So what is a package we could get now that we won't be able to get a year from now?

[jjfanec]

Here is a would you trade a pitcher like Gallardo (pre-injury) if you had nice depth, for a hitter like Prince if he puts up numbers even remotely close to what he did last year? I am guessing some teams definitely would, maybe not though. That is the type of pitcher a lot of people have been talking about. A young prospect who has gotten his feet wet in the bigs and looked major league ready with high up-side

Major league players do get traded for major leaguers when each team have needs that fit the trade. The Twins gave up Garza a good prospect who had pitched in the bigs for a year for Delmon Young. Josh Hamilon for Edison Volquez (although i guess Volquez was a prospect).

[southpaw121505]

I don't think it's likely to happen, I don't think it will and I said that in my last post. I do think it's possible and worth exploring. It would have to be a perfect match. It's hard to say which teams would value Prince's offense enough to take the chance on giving up impact arms.

 

I just want a better rotation. I want to like our chances more often other than just when Sheets is pitching. I hate having to hope for a good outing from the starter rather than expecting it. Making a trade seems the most likely way to do that. If trading Prince means money to sign Sheets, and a starter from the trade(likely a high potential guy) then I'm still on board.

[Hammer]

While I disagree w/ MSC's call on locking my other thread, I'll put this here.

With Prince starting to heat up (small sample, I know) my question is this: Is Prince about to get an extension or get traded? Remember a few weeks ago when Braun started to get hot he got his extension? Is this Princes time now as well?

My vote: He'll get traded to the LA Angels of Anaheim, Orange County, California, USA...North America within 2 - 3 weeks.

[razzzorsharp]

I would love for them to package up Prince for E. Santana, Brandon Wood, and Jeff Mathis.

[kramnoj]

On the other hand, if Prince is traded this off-season, that might free up enough payroll room to be able to resign Sheets. Assuming Prince will get $9-10 million in arbitration, that's not far from what it would probably take to sign Sheets (I'm guessing $12-14 million per). I don't think the Brewers have the finances to be able to keep both. If we were able to resign Sheets, the top-flight pitching prospect(s) wouldn't have to be as major league ready.

 

Why is there a belief that the Brewer's won't have the money to re-sign Sheets? They are already paying him $11 million this year. If you think Sheets will sign somewhere for $14 million, all the Brewers have to do is move Mota's money this year to what they have budgeted for a #1 starter, and they will be able to re-sign sheets. If you think Prince is going to get $10 mil in arbitration (and that isn't likely with his season so far), then you give him what you are paying Cameron and Kendall and play rookies at those positions. Plus you have the $10 million from Gagne going away to give arb increases to Hart, Weeks, Hardy.

 

I don't think it's likely that Sheets only gets $12-$14 mil. I think his floor is $15 mil AAV, and I think he may get as much as $18 mil (although Zito stinking may curb that somewhat). Even then the Brewers could afford that by not re-signing Counsell and using a young player as the utility infielder. Really, I don't see anyway the Brewers won't be able to afford their own talent, it's just a question of how they want to manage their roster and if their contract lengths of the offers match what the players want.

[ILuvDaBush]

But it's more than just what Ben makes this year. First-time arbitration-eligible players like Hardy and Prince are going to get quite the bumps in salary, as well as Corey and my boy, Bush.On top of that, Soup's deal was back-loaded so his salary is going up. Gagne's salary will be off the books, but Cameron's option would flip flop Gagne's for Mike's.

[kramnoj]

But it's more than just what Ben makes this year. First-time arbitration-eligible players like Hardy and Prince are going to get quite the bumps in salary, as well as Corey and my boy, Bush.

 

Did you read my entire post? I explained how arb increases could be covered. True, I didn't mention Bush, but I don't think it's likely that Bush will get much of an increase unless he dramatically improves, and if he does, you can adjust for that by giving him the money that you are paying Tunrbow this year.

[rluzinski]

The question has never been whether the Brewers COULD afford Sheets. It's whether they want to make a financial commitment to him that probably would extend to at least 2012.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Fielders value is rising by the game now and hopefully by season's end he can reel in top notch pitching prospects or a big time proven pitcher. I'd take either.

[NievesNoNO]

To answer the original question, I think his value is a mid/high-level young major league pitcher with good upside yet and a couple of top level prospects. I think the names have been mentioned all ready but: Cain, Sanchez, Marcum, McGowan, Hughes. I don't know enough about anyone's minor league system to make a guess on the prospects. I can't envision a team trading their ace for him. While I thinks he's worth Lincecum or Hernandez I just can't see it happening.

I can get on board with some of the reasons that people have to deal him, but I'm going to go against what feels like the popular opinion (at least in this thread) and say: "How can they afford to trade him?" Here's a guy who is probably in the top 5% talent wise in MLB. Those types of players don't just fall into teams laps every year. The Brewers have been lucky to draft both Braun and Fielder recently, who IMO fall into that level of player. So we should trade him in the hope that we can some day have 1 out of the 5-6 players we might get in return reach close to that level?

R HR RBI BB AVG OPS
105 50 119 90 .288 1.013

Just a reminder of what he did in just his second year in the big leauges. I'll take Fielder and Braun in the middle of the line up and take my chances on the guys around him.

[kramnoj]

So we should trade him in the hope that we can some day have 1 out of the 5-6 players we might get in return reach close to that level?

 

R HR RBI BB AVG OPS

105 50 119 90 .288 1.013

 

Just a reminder of what he did in just his second year in the big leauges.

 

You're not just trading him for prospects. You are also opening up his position for a young Brewer that can step in and project to provide an approximation of what Fielder has done in years other than last year at a much lower cost.

 

I'm not sure why you felt the need to post Fielder's stats from last year as a reminder. Do you really feel there are fans here who don't know what he did last year? The issue isn't what he did last year. There are a couple of issues:

 

1. He will be making a lot more money starting next year, meaning his production/$ will certainly go down, which is something that the Brewers need to consider.

 

2. He will be under control for only 3 more years. In the current market, you get more value for a player in a trade if he is under control for two years, as opposed to one year, or even half a year, and you would like to get more value in a trade than you would get from two draft picks (it's also better because if you are trading for prospects, you have more information on how close they are to the majors than a typical draftee and you get the extra value of not paying out bonus money to draftees that bust). Basically, the Brewers have to at least be considering what Fielder's current value is, what his future value is, and should act when his value is highest. It is possible that time will be this offseason.

 

3. Fielder's conditioning. Fielder is a big guy, and big guys often break down, especially as they get older. In addition to the fact that Fielder will become more expensive, his size will lead to more of an injury risk. Just one more consideration while determining his future value.

 

4. His projected performance. You bring up last year's record performance. Is that his true talent level, an early peak, a career year, a fluke, etc. Right now, his career averages are .280/.369/.535. How much better can he expect to perform on a recurring basis? His BA might be a little higher, his OBP could be higher by up to 30 points, and he should be able to slug .575 or so. A very valuable player indeed. I don't think there's a question that he will be valuable, just a question of what that value actually will be.

 

Basically, most people don't expect Fielder to be in Milwaukee when he hits FA. Whether that's because the Brewers won't commit huge dollars in a lengthy deal to a big guy that will probably get bigger, or because he will leave for more money, or because he just doesn't want to stay here. Working on the assumption that he won't be here in 4 years, you then need to determine how you want that exit to occur. If you can trade him for prospects, promote a prospect in the system to perfom close to Fielder's average production, and save money, that sounds like a win-win-win. The only remaning question is when to make that move. It may be this offseason, it may be after next year.

 

 

If there weren't prospects in the system destroying the ball, I doubt this would be as much of an issue. But there are and for some it's fun to think about the future and all the pieces that could make the puzzle of future teams. I think the biggest change is that rather than just enjoying a star and watching them leave, we now have a team that has minor league depth and we can look forward to replacing the major league talent that moves on.

[JoeHova]

The idea that Prince has to be traded to open up a spot for LaPorta is ridiculous. LaPorta is hitting worse in AA than Prince hit in MLB at the same age. And if Matt really is that kind of hitter, the bat will play in left or right. I'd take two Princes and a Braun in the lineup, rather than trade Prince for a guy like phil Hughes, who has not panned out yet, and have to then count on two guys (LaPorta and Hughes) who haven't dominated MLB like Prince already has.

 

I feel like the certainty that Prince can hit ML pitching is worth something. Look at Rickie, not every great prospect plays well in MLB.

[kramnoj]

The idea that Prince has to be traded to open up a spot for LaPorta is ridiculous.

 

I don't know that anyone is saying that. I think that people are saying that it's better to trade Prince for prospects than to let him walk for draft picks. The fact that there are prospects (Gamel as well as LaPorta) that will be ready to be major league hitters when Prince leaves is a plus.

[Never Outhustled]

The Brewers can simply take the package they recieve for Fielder and deal it for a dominant starting pitcher. The Package we'd receive for Fielder would be as much or more than what the D-backs gave up for Dan Haren this past offseason. What would make the Brewers better next year, Haren equivilent and LaPorta, or Fielder and Bush? Its Haren equivilent and LaPorta is my mind, by a pretty easy margin.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

i would trade Fielder for Haren in a heartbeat. ( i know not an option)... but maybe we can do a three way....... Fielder to team X, prospects to Giants, Linecum to the Brewers