Bush has to STAY (was Bush has to go)

[kramnoj]

My favorite stat to look at is ERA+ as found on baseball-reference.com I guess it depends on what you are looking for. If you are looking for the value that the pitcher provided to the team, ERA+ lets you know how the pitcher did compared to the league average and adjusting for park effects. If you are trying to predict a pitcher's performance, I believe FIP is generally more useful. Last year, Capuano's ERA+ was 88, which I believe is generally considered the margin for being replacement level, or what a typical 5th starter gives. For his career, Capuano has had a 101 ERA+, which is slightly above league average for a starter, or around what a #3 starter is (because relievers have better ERAs than starters, a league average starter is usually around a 96 ERA+, give or take a point or two).

[1992casey]

I think you have to look at several metrics. No single metric really cuts it. You don't necessarily need to use them all, but each one helps in its own way to clarify the picture.

 

ERA tends to work for 500-plus inning samples. If you're going to use it for smaller samples, you're going to have to give it breathing room as it's affected by both defense and luck.

 

WHIP is a nice cross-check for ERA. Its downside is that it doesn't account for extra base hits. It also needs breathing room.

 

ERA+ is cool in that it covers ballpark factors. However, it carries along ERA's other flaws: it's affected by defense and luck until the sample is large enough.

 

K/AB and BB/AB would be optimum for judging peripherals. Mainstream web sites don't give us that stat, though. You can substitute in K/9 and BB/9 as long as you realize that these need a bit of breathing room. K/9 and BB/9 don't account for extra outs caused by errors, nor do they account for ABs where the pitcher has given up hits. You can toss in K/BB ratio, but it should be examined alongside of K/AB & BB/AB or K/9 & BB/9.

 

BA/OBP/SLG/OPS against the pitcher should be helpful. Besides the raw information given here, you can eyeball a BB/HBP rate and you can subtract BA from SLG to see a pitcher's extra base hit rate (isolated power against).

 

FIP does a nice job at weeding out the effects of defense and luck. Some members have mentioned xERA. I don't know much about that stat, but it's reasonable to assume that it's similar in purpose.

 

If you want to get more sophisticated, you can look at line drives, ground balls, infield flies, and outfield flies. A lot of sites only include flyball outs and groundball outs; it's much better to look at base hits and outs combined.

 

You can also look at BABIP. For most pitchers, you can eyeball luck by comparing his BABIP to the team average. Some pitchers, especially groundball pitchers, may consistently carry a lower (better) than average BABIP, though. To judge luck with those guys, you'd want to compare their current sample to their larger sample.

[joepepsi]

I like K:BB ratio as a predictor and also as a general evaluator of performance. Like hitters who don't walk a lot, pitchers with bad K:BB ratios can rarely sustain their success. K/9ip is about as useful, but it's important to note some successful pitchers, like sinker ballers, may not strike out a lot of batters. But successful sinker ball types usually have good K:BB ratios; at leat 2:1 or higher.

 

ERA and *ERA+ are still useful and handy, but you do have to be aware of factors beyond the pitcher's control that can affect ERA. Slugging pct against a pitcher has value too. It's one thing if the pitcher is giving up a bunch of ping singles, but quite another if every hit is bouncing off or sailing over the wall.

[rluzinski]

I've heard the argument that you should look at the ratio of K/(K + BB), not K/BB. And as joepepsi said, a guy with a great sinkerball can get away with low K rate. That's because he's most likely an extreme groundball pitcher (the kind of guy who isn't going to be giving up very many extra base hits).

[brewizard]

Should Dave Bush still go?

[germanking]

http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gifWith all the talk of Bush's ability to possibly be a #2-3 type starter, I think we now have small sample size proof that he is a true #2. Since he has been the #2 starter he is 1-0 with 3ER and 14 IP all runs on the solo shot meaning he is not walking as many. So, in theory, Nedly just needed to bump him up in the rotation 2 years ago and we would have made the playoffs last year being the dominant starter he is today as our #2 and only be 1/2 game back of the Scrubs right now.

[razzzorsharp]

I like Dave Bush, it seems, half the time. In my mind, I can live with hits and solo HRs. I can not live with walks and poor location with two strikes. Bush suffers from those in his poor starts (much like many pitchers).

[BrewCrewForever]

Two good starts in a row. Very impressive, going to the game today I was a little worried with him pitching. Of course he proved me wrong. And good for him, me and Brewers nation.

[clancyphile]

Personally, I hope for a hot streak, and then maybe the Brewers can ride that to a point where they can move for a starter for the stretch run.

[splitterpfj]

Behind Sheets, it's pretty much a game of hoping for hot streaks with this staff. Right now, there's no chance for Bush to go anywhere, so we'd all better hope for the best.

 

He's hot now, so for the moment...."I told you guys Bush was a stud."

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

I thought today's performance was better than his last one. In the Braves game, he benefitted from a big strike zone. Not today...he earned this one.

 

As nice as it is to see the bats starting to crank, starting pitching will hold the key. I'm still skeptical on Bush long term, but he is the clear #4. at this point. McClung is really the one that doesn't belong as a starter.

[UndraftedFA]

I was starting to think Dave Bush was my new Glendon Rusch; a guy that you knew should do better than he often did. Just enough teasers to get you back on board when doubt creeps in. Let's go Dave! I want to keep believing! Show me a no hitter next time out!

[mothershipconnection]

Should Dave Bush still go?

 

Yeah, he's the abusive spouse who just bought a bunch of flowers and is showering you with attention to make up for his bad deeds. I see through your games, Dave. You'll be back to making me miserable any day now.

[Ennder]

You can also look at BABIP. For most pitchers, you can eyeball luck by comparing his BABIP to the team average. Some pitchers, especially groundball pitchers, may consistently carry a lower (better) than average BABIP

 

Very nice post 1992casey, just had to comment on this. Groundball pitchers tend to have higher than normal BABIP, flyball pitchers have lower than normal. GB tend to lead to more hits, FB to more outs. FB tend to lead to more extra base hits, GB more singles. Being a GB pitcher will increase your BABIP and WHIP but will lower your ERA in the long run.

 

Also the more runners a pitcher puts on base the more random ERA becomes. Defense, LOB% and BABIP fluctuate a lot more when hitters are getting on more and when they are putting more balls in play. This is why stud pitchers tend to have pretty stable ERA year to year but the Dave Bush, Jason Marquis types fluctuate a lot. GB pitchers also tend to be a little more consistent because extra base hits can really mess with ERA over small samples.

[danzig6767]

Unless the gun was off today, Bush was throwing harder than he has all season. Numerous times FSN had him throwing 90-93 compared to the mid-80's i've seen in all his other starts.

[KCBrewerfan34]

I think we should sign Bush to a 5 yr $50 million contract, get her done Doug, also let's get Branyan inked as well!! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[TooLiveBrew]

FSN had him throwing 90-93 compared to the mid-80's i've seen in all his other starts.

 

He was around 91 or so with his FB last time out too. It really makes me wonder if his arm/shoulder was sore earlier on, or if the 'we found something in his mechanics' line from the coaching staff had some truth to it.

[bork]

I thought Bush mentioned some weeks ago that Maddux tried tinkering with his mechanics and he's starting to feel comfortable now that he's getting back to his old mechanics. Maddux tinkering is what turned Rusch from an average starter into a pile of garbage.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

If you like 5 ERA pitchers then Bush should stay. If you don't like them then he should go. It's just not as good to have a 5 ERA pitcher as your #4. I could tolerate that from a #5 though.

[endaround]

Bush looked injured his first two starts. He was just completely off.

[bobskube]

Bush is a #5 starter. No more no less.

[brewizard]

Figured now was as good a time to bump this thread as any and ask again: Should Dave Bush still go?

 

Obviously, Dave Bush has looked waaay better as of late.

[moofnelson]

Dave Bush should definitely not go. In fact, Dave Bush should never leave the city of Milwaukee.

[Mr QL]

Way too bring back a thread to make us all look stupid, lol.

 

But yes, Bush is pitching amazingly well right now. I hope he can keep it up the rest of the season.

[cwolf2012]

Playoff game rotation if we're at home.

 

Bush/Sabathia/Sheets/Parra

 

Seriously, if this ridiculous split stays how it is, he's our ace at home. Get him game 1 and 5 in the DS, and games 2 and 6 in the CS and WS.

 

Now this whole post is somewhat sarcastic, but the point stands. Bush at home is nigh-unhittable right now.