Bush has to STAY (was Bush has to go)

[tigerbrew]

I think Bush could make a good, durable reliever and would be more useful to the team in the pen.

 

I don't think Bush should be sent down, instead I'd move him to the pen and trade for Greg Maddux to take his rotation spot http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[DougJones43]

Bushy pitched great tonight. He just made a few bad pitches, which I'm sure he wishes he could have back. And does the bad luck ever end for him? I mean, if a few of those crushed pitches luckily landed in a defender's glove rather than over the wall in centerfield, I really think the outcome could have been a lot different for him.

 

And look at his peripherals! I'm pretty sure he's actually right on the cusp of being a solid #3 starter, instead of being a pathetic waste of roster space. His luck, and the Brewers luck just needs to change. Any day now...

[ozzybourne]

weaver, mclung, jackson.....i say give them a chance. if the cardinals can catch lightning in a bottle, why not the brewers.

 

certainly what has been happening so far could use a bit of improvement.

 

i just hope this doesn't turn into a 'why didn't we keep this guy' or why didn't we do this' kind of a thing. these are highly paid ball players and staff (notice i did not say professionals), and someone should be able to step it up.

 

this is so unbelievable that we can not have one or more players step up/show improvement/surprise us with the great story, regarding our pitching. and yes i know gallardo is hurt--so what. how many guys do we have in the minors. or sign a guy like livan hernandez. wow---i am so frustrated by this team.

[TheRealMattKain]

Let's face it, over the past 2 years his K rate has gone down, his walk rate has gone up, and his homerun rate has gone up. The major defense independent peripherals (so far) do not look good for Bush. Heck, if he keeps up his current numbers, we're talking about 42 or 43 homeruns over 200 innings. That's terrible (the saddest part is that he doesn't even have the worst homerun rate on the team). Maybe we just have to accept the idea that 2006 was a career year for Bush, and now, for whatever reason, he's declining. Granted he's only a little over 45 innings into the season, but if anyone wants to put money on these number getting much better (or anywhere near what they were in 2006), please send me a PM:

2006
K/Inning = .79
BB/Inning = .18
HR/Inning = .12

2007
K/Inning = .72
BB/Inning = .24
HR/Inning = .14

2008
K/Inning = .51
BB/Inning = .39
HR/Inning = .21

Edit: I meant "2006" where I typed "2005"

[bamberger]

Unfortunately, to make room for Fielder, we traded a quality every day hitter in Lyle Overby for three pigs in a poke unless Zach Jackson comes through. We had to move him, but so much for these three"prospects."

I think we can now see why we had no trades of our "surplus" starting pitching in the winter. Nobody outside the Brewer organization thought enough of Bush, Vargas or Capuano to offer or anything of value.
It seems to me that Bush noticeably drops his arm a few degrees, his wrist gets underneath, and his pitches get high and loop in and down. My recollection is that Bob McClure had the same problem. However, he made a surprisingly long career as a situational lefty. No such role for Bush.

[rluzinski]

Bush's performance has really been sliding the last 1+ years. Not sure what's going on there but I don't know if the Brewers even have a better option right now. Not good.

 

And the whole "regression to the mean" is a misuse of the term. It isn't appropriate to use for performance events. Its used for things like coin flips.

 

It absolutely applies here. It is used whenever you are trying to use a sample to estimate the value of an underlying population. A batter has a .320 BA in 400 AB his first year in the majors. If you want to use that to estimate his true BA skill, you regress his previous BA towards the average BA to some degree. That's your best guess. Want to estimate a team's true win%? Take their current win% and regress to the mean.

 

Take every extreme performance every year and assume that the performance will be closer to average the following year and you will be right the majority of the time. That's why "on pace" stats for extreme performances are neat to look at but worthless as a predictor.

[Ennder]

Bush's K/9 is way down, his BB/9 is up, his FB% is up. Everyting about him points to him not pitching as well as he did in the past. I find it funny as heck that people are trying to use his current pitching to somehow justify past arguments regading him since our arguments agree that he should be doing worse now. I have no clue why it has happened but Bush is a much worse pitcher than he was just a year ago. It isnt' even close.

[danzig6767]

A question for the stat crazy guys here?

 

Is there any data out there that tracks 1-2-3 innings?

 

I ask because maybe it's just my perception, but it seems to me that outside of Sheets, Bush has the highest number of clean innings. It seems like the guy just cruises through stretches of his starts more than anyone besides Sheets, but then manages to nearly always implode in between his great stretches in starts.

 

Whether it's like tonight where he allowed almost no baserunners before blowing up all at one time or the starts where he'll say retire 9 in a row, give up three runs, retire the next 7 of 8 batters and then blow up for another three run inning where batters are ripping one rocket after another. It seems most pitchers labor more consistently through the whole start when they pitch bad, where Bush chronically seems to be jekyll and hyde in most of his starts.

[And That]

It is time to send Bush back to AAA and convert him back into a reliever/closer. I've been one of his supporters through thick and thin and I've had enough with him as a starter.

[trwi7]

Bush has to be moved out of the rotation. If you take out CV for poor performance you have to treat Bush the same way.

That sums it up. Of course Yost and Maddux won't do that because they love Bush's "bulldog mentality" and the fact that he's a "gritty grinder."

[shelmark]

How about Dana Eveland? Seriously, we need to acquire Maddux and Redding, move Bush and Villy to pen, and have McClung close.

[Fatter than Joey]

Bush's performance has really been sliding the last 1+ years. Not sure what's going on there but I don't know if the Brewers even have a better option right now. Not good.

 

This is about how I feel -- Especially after taking CV out of the rotation, I don't know who the Brewers (or us) should expect to take the ball.

 

Maybe the NL has figured him out after a season.

[brewmann04]

Time for Ned to remove his boy Bush from the Rotation.He stats are just as bad as Villy.

Maybe time to groom him as a Closer.

[BrewCrewForever]

I have given though to Bush closing. He did it in college at Wake Forest and was lights out. And as we have seen as a starter he can usually pitch 3 to 4 lights out innings and then just falls apart. It might be worth a try. Right now I would give Weaver a shot in Bush's spot.

[kmcasper23]

Watching Bush pitch is at times like watching a coach throw BP before the game. He has a really slow delivery and just flat out grooves way too many pitches up over the middle of the plate. Maybe they should move him to the BP pitcher if he wants to keep doing that, then at least he is giving up homers to Braun and Fielder instead of opposing players. But seriously, the Crew need to try another option at this point. 1-5 with an ERA over 7 is just not acceptable for a team that wants to compete for the playoffs. I don't care if you have to have auditions from Weaver, Zack-Jack, Difelice or even start bringing up guys from "AA" to try. Something needs to be done soon. I would rather seen CV back in the rotation that keep Bush there.

[BrewCrewForever]

If Bush goes to the pen or wherever as long as it is out of the rotation I hope they give Weaver a try. Might as well see if he has anything left because if he isn't up by June something he can sign anywhere.

 

At this point I would say our rotation should be:

 

Sheets

Parra

Suppan

McClung

Weaver

 

Not what I was expecting once the season started.

[recte44]

Seriously, what would be the risk in giving Weaver a chance and sending Bush back down for a while?

[afeter]

Seriously, what would be the risk in giving Weaver a chance and sending Bush back down for a while?

 

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/images/logo/t556_logo_sm.gif

Jeff Weaver 36 | P Status: Active Nashville Sounds Triple-A Pacific Coast League MLB Parent Club: Milwaukee

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/images/players/mugshot/ph_213711.jpg

Stats ERA: 6.52 W-L: 1-2 SV: 0 SO: 23

Bookmark Player Full Name: Jeffrey Charles Weaver Born: 08/22/1976 Birthplace: Northridge, CA College: Fresno State Height: 6' 5" Weight: 200 Bats: R Throws: R

2008 Season
Team	League	W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	GO/AO	AVG
NAS	PCL	1	2	6.52	5	5	0	0	0	29.0	31	22	21	6	8	23	1.46	.279

[RU Rah Rah]

I would be inclined to give Weaver a try, but he hasn't exactly been lights-out down in the Music City.

 

Either way, the back end of the rotation is looking increasingly funky.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

The toughest part of this debate is there really aren't a great deal of options. Sheets has been great, but without Yo, it's cross your fingers time between Ben's starts (although Parra has been more encouraging). What are our options:

 

Weaver - his ERA is like Bush's...in Nashville

ZachJack - ditto

DiFelice - maybe he's got the yips out and can settle down now

McClung - Has been ok in relief, we'll see what happens Saturday, but likely won't go more than 4-5

Villy - Hopefully a little pen time can get him back

Narveson?

 

These guys all have their merits...but who on that list is better than a 5th starter? DM is in a tough spot. We just don't have the starting pitching to make a run and as he has stated, going out and acquiring will be a big cost at this point.

 

I'm starting to think that a bigger question is what do we do for next year?

[MickeyDavis]

I'm starting to think that a bigger question is what do we do for next year?

Good point. Our options are limited this season. But as Doug and Gord look ahead to 2009 they certainly should not be seeing Dave Bush in the rotation.

[BrewCrewBaseball]

Bush is bad. He was becoming a problem last year when he had control issues and he never got it back completely. I was glad when he got sent down to AAA, they should have kept him there. I really hope the Brewers dont consider bringing him back next season if they want to have a chance to win every 5th game...

[BrewCrewForever]

Sure would be nice to have Will Inman right about now....

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Inman is having a nice year at AA so far, but he certainly wouldn't have helped us this year...or next. Although that trade sure isn't looking that good now unless JZ can work his magic on those supplementals.

[Diskono]

Anyone still having thoughts of the "Bush for closer" campaign? As has been pointed out, he can cruise through multiple innings, and is generally halfway decent in the first inning...could be a legitimate closer and if not, he shouldn't be any worse than our current situation.

 

Maybe we can make Bush into a throwback, 3-inning-save type closer.