Since Ryan Braun's debut... MLB rankings

[LUKE232323]

Here are his MLB ranks:

 

HR: 1st

Total bases: 1st

Slugging %: 1st

 

He is also the only player all-time to have 40 HR and 40 doubles within his first year of service time.

 

I bring this up because there were some people saying we don't know what kind of hitter Braun is yet. I think it is safe to say he's going to be great. The contract he just signed is going to look very good by the time it's completed.

[rluzinski]

I was one of the ones who said that we don't know exactly what player we are getting and I stand by that opinion. Is he going to be a very good player (great power, nice average) or a great player (power and gets on base a ton). Either way, the Brewers are getting their money's worth but let's not pretend 638 career AB makes his future performance crystal clear. We still aren't sure.

[ILuvDaBush]

And I believe his OBP is lower than Rickie Weeks' in the time since Braun has ascended to the majors.

[trwi7]

I was one of the ones who said that we don't know exactly what player we are getting and I stand by that opinion. Is he going to be a very good player (great power, nice average) or a great player (power and gets on base a ton). Either way, the Brewers are getting their money's worth but let's not pretend 638 career AB makes his future performance crystal clear. We still aren't sure.

 

I agree with you. His walk rate has been pretty terrible in the majors. It's great that he's hitting about .300 right now but it's pretty terrible that his OBP is only .323. That needs to improve if he wants to be an elite hitter.

[DuWayne Steurer]

One thing to keep in mind with Braun is that he's been in professional baseball a very short time. His trip through the minors was dang near light-speed. I'm not going to say that a .320-ish OBP isn't bad, but I definately expect his plate discipline and walk totals to improve over time.

[lcbj68c]

1 Year does not a career make

 

 

Respectfully,

Scott Podsednik

[logan82]

LUKE232323 wrote:

I bring this up because there were some people saying we don't know what kind of hitter Braun is yet. I think it is safe to say he's going to be great. The contract he just signed is going to look very good by the time it's completed.

I don't think anybody ever said he hasn't done well to this point, just that there are questions about how good he will be going forward. His LHP vs numbers from last year greatly inflated his overall stats(.450BA/.516OBP/.964SLG/1.480OPS). I doubt he is likley to put up numbers like that on a consistent year to year basis. Also his OBP has been largley BA driven, which is a concern. We don't know if he will be able to maintain his .361 BABIP from last year either. It is safer to assume he will not.

 

I still don't like giving out contracts to pre arby players, but at worst he will be paid like a league average corner outfielder at the end of it(I am just guessing $12M will be the going rate, Jenkins got in the neighborhood of $7M I beleive).

[jeffy]

His walk rate has been pretty terrible in the majors.

I would think hitting in front of Prince has something to do with that.

[JohnBriggs12]

Somehow, I seriously doubt that 25 years from now if Braun has say 10,000 career AB's with career averages of .316/.356/.622 and keeps at his rate of 1 HR every 13.68 ABs, and 1 RBI every 4.8 AB for career totals of 731 HR and 2,083 RBI, that there are actually going to be guys sitting around saying stuff like: "If he only walked a few more times, he' be a hall of famer". Braun's approach is that he's up there to hit. That may mean fewer walks, but it's an approach that just got him $45 million and I doubt he's going to change soon. At some point, guys just won't pitch to him but right now that means they'd have to intentionally walk him and batting in front of Fielder, that's not going to happen.

 

Now, don't misquote me and say I said he's a Hall of Famer after one year, but those averages will get him and anyone else in the HOF if kept up over a long enough period.

[rluzinski]

I would think hitting in front of Prince has something to do with that.

 

And I would say, that I highly doubt it. I think that those kind of effects are grossly overstated. I have never really seen any evidence of something like that. It's just always stated as fact. Pitchers don't seem to change their approach very much except if it's a pitcher that's coming up.

 

those averages will get him and anyone else in the HOF if kept up over a long enough period.

 

Who the heck would argue otherwise? Talk about a staw man argument. Some are just questioning whether he can keep up a .316 BA to maintain that nice "career" OBP. It's either that, or his BA lowers to something a little more sustainable and he learns to walk more.

 

I don't thnk that it's unreasonable to assume that he will learn to walk more, but I don't have a wager on it, personally. I don't know. I just hope he becomes more than a Jeff Francour with more power. I'm greedy. I want the full package.

[bobbledude25]

Fastest player EVER to 40 Homers. 352 Days

[cnycerveceros]

I would think hitting in front of Prince has something to do with that.

 

And I would say, that I highly doubt it. I think that those kind of effects are grossly overstated. I have never really seen any evidence of something like that. It's just always stated as fact. Pitchers don't seem to change their approach very much except if it's a pitcher that's coming up.

J.C. Bradbury has a chapter on 'protection' in his book The Baseball Economist. He says protection is a myth, and finds that strong on deck hitters (measured by OPS) have some negative effects on the batter. One of the results of the on deck batter having a higher OPS is a lower probability of a BB for the batter. It's a statistically significant effect, but it's also very small. A 100 point increase in OPS reduces the probability of the batter walking by about 2.5%.

 

It seems pretty safe to say that Braun walks so little because he swings at so many pitches out of the strikezone, i.e. his K last night against the Pirates. Strike 3 must have been almost a foot off the plate.

 

[rluzinski]

Fastest player EVER to 40 Homers. 352 Days

 

Not to diminish the significance of that feat (and it's a monster feat no matter how you cut it) but wouldn't games played or PAs be more relevant?

 

Games/PAs to 40 HRs:

Braun: 149/651

McGuire: 118/481

 

I remember someone pointing out that there were others as well?

[rluzinski]

Fangraphs has some nice "plate discipline" metrics and I looked at them for the Brewers herea littlw ways back:

 

http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?t=12588

 

You can find Braun's updated numbers here:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3410&position=OF

 

This year, Braun has seen about 2.6% more strikes than the average batter did in 2007. Since he's averaging about 3.5 P/PA, that's about an extra strike per 11 PA. The real reason that Braun hasn't walked much is because he is very aggressive at the plate. He's swung at 51.5% of the pitches that have come his way this year, compared to the 07' league average of 45.9%. Even if you adjust for the more strikes he's seeing, that's a lot. He's swung at 33.5% of the pitches outside of the strikezone, compared to the 07' average of 25%. I'm sure he is still developing as a hitter but right now, he's a free swinger.

 

As for the effect Prince has, I wouldn't necessarily limit it to 1 extra strike every 11 PA. Wouldn't we expect Braun to actually see less strikes than average if he is a free swinger? It's possible that pitchers haven't adjusted to Braun's free swinging tendecies yet or maybe it really doesn't work that way. Perhaps Prince adds 5% more strikes, atlhough that is still just an extra strike every 5-6 PA. Either way, Braun hasn't walked much so far and it has very little to do with who has has batted ahead or behind of him, as far as I can tell.

[BrewCrewForever]

1 Year does not a career make

 

 

Respectfully,

Scott Podsednik

That is a good point, but come on do you really think Ryan Braun is Scott Podsednik?

 

[Invader3K]

The thing I like about Braun compared to a lot of outfielders, is that he isn't really a "streaky" hitter. He stays very consistent throughout the year. Yes, he was a little slow to start at the beginning of this year, but so was most of the team.

[rluzinski]

If you look at fangraphs.com:

Braun swings at a lot of pitches outside the zone (O-Swing%):

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=4&season=2008

Which has the tendency to lead to a low walk rate:

http://www.fangraphs.com/custom%20graphs/OSwing.png

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/research-dissecting-plate-discipline-part-1/

He does see about 2.5% more balls in the zone that an average hitter did last year, which should theoretically lead to less walks as well. That only works out to about 1 extra strike every 11 PA (he averages about 3.5 P/PA). I don't see that having much of an effect on his walk rate, personally. And this makes me a little nervous:

"Seeing that it correlates so well from year to year (at least in 2005 & 2006) suggests that players do not quickly develop plate discipline. Perhaps it's a skill that can be learned over time, but there are few players who saw drastic changes in OSwing from 2005 to 2006. Less than 10% of all players with 300 at-bats in 2005 and 2006 saw more than a 5% change in OSwing from 2005 to 2006."

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/more-on-plate-discipline/

Does Braun's bad plate discipline cause pitchers to want to throw him more balls but Prince batting behind him cause them to actually throw more strikes? Of course, aren't half of Braun's PA this year from when he was batting after Prince? I just don't udnerstand why pitchers throw Braun so many strikes.

 

[dfourni]

Braun swings at a lot of pitches outside the zone (O-Swing%):

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=4&season=2008

 

Which has the tendency to lead to a low walk rate:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/custom%20graphs/OSwing.png

 

 

 

That is a pretty weak correlation. It is basically irrelevant.

 

[lcbj68c]

1 Year does not a career make

 

 

Respectfully,

Scott Podsednik

That is a good point, but come on do you really think Ryan Braun is Scott Podsednik?

 

 

No, No, Not at all. The original comment was "I think it is safe to say he's going to be great." I dont think 1 year is "safe anything".

[ecjimg]

Brauns ROY season and his start this year make me wonder...................
Dont you think the Brewers win 2 more games if hes in the majors out of spring training last year?
I do. I really do.

[TooLiveBrew]

That is a pretty weak correlation. It is basically irrelevant.

 

Was that intended to be a joke?

[LaprilOne]

Well, I am an old fart. My friends and I used to imitate Ernie Banks pre-Counsell batting stance (yes, grew up in Chicago, forgive me!)

 

This is discussion is interesting, well thought out, great charts and graphs.

 

Yet I regress to my old days: Braun looks like he can hit the heck out of the ball, is fast on the bases, and may turn into a good fielder.

 

Heck, I like that he is on our team for some time, and he will be fun to watch.

 

Enjoy your analysis paralysis, I will enjoy seeing how it works out.

[logan82]

Brauns ROY season and his start this year make me wonder...................

Dont you think the Brewers win 2 more games if hes in the majors out of spring training last year?

I do. I really do.

Not sure. Depends on how much his defense would affect the pitching staff. Maybe the bulpen wears out even sooner and we lose more games. Maybe when factoring in defense the Counsellino platoon out produces Braun. Besides, he was hurt in spring training and needed time to heal so that wasn't an option.

[endaround]

Its really hard to say the Braun causes the Brewers to go 26-8. 2 wins is a huge amount in 6 weeks even given that Counsell and Graffanino stunk offensively and its really hard given that the Brewers were really near the limit as to how well any team can play over that span.

[TerraceReserved]

That is a pretty weak correlation. It is basically irrelevant.

I disagree. The correlation is obvious; there is a distinct trend between low walk rates and Outside Swing Percentage.