Chicago Cubs getting it done

[rluzinski]

But besides that, the things that really seem to matter like home vs. road splits and strength of schedule suggest that they will give us a chance.

 

Did someone look at the SOS of the remaining games? As for the home/away games, it's not going to make much difference. A couple games maybe, and IMO, I'm being generous.

[danzig6767]

The Cubs just look to have a better team than the Brewers do, which will make it extremely hard to catch them

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

If only the Brewers could improve their BABIP to the Cubs level in their hitting. That's the trick!

[ELCABALLO45]

Silver lining?

 

June 1st 2007

 

NLC W L GB

 

MIL 31 24 -

STL 23 29 6.5

PIT 23 31 7.5

CHC 22 30 7.5

HOU 22 32 8.5

CIN 22 34 9.5

 

May 31st 2008

 

Central W L GB

 

CHC 33 21 ---

STL 32 23 1.5

HOU 30 25 3.5

MIL 26 28 7.0

PIT 25 28 7.5

CIN 25 29 8.0

 

Of course I would feel better if YoGa was not hurt. They are playing really really well right now http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif

[Gopher74]

That game today...I felt a punch in my stomach when I saw the highlights.

 

As much as I want to argue that the season is only 1/3 over, we are in about the worst possible position at this point. They're hot, we're not. We have key injuries, they don't. They have the money to make a huge move at the deadline, we might be selling.

So did I, and so do we. We've got money to spend. We've got more money than I think most are led to believe.

 

Anyway.....I think this says that we've still got a chance.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/standings?date=20070531

 

[BrewCrewForever]

It is sickening to see how well the Cubs are playing. They just look dominating most of the time. Great hitting, good starting pitching and they have avoided a devistating injury to a key player. I'm just praying they go on some at least 3-5 game losing streak and we go on a 5 or 6 game win streak and gain some ground to stay within striking distance soon.

 

Also it seems everytime I see a Cubs highlight or catch part of a game on WGN, Alfonso Soriano is hitting a HR or a big hit. Yuck.

[Ennder]

The Cubs have a bunch of overachieves and almost no underachievers so I'm not surprised by what they have done. I'm not a believer in things 'evening out' though so assuming the team plays to its talent level from here on out I doubt we have much of a chance to catch them. They have to go into a month long slump at some point for us to do it now. Basically what we did last year when we completely tanked August and gave the division to them.

[Weirdos19]

To me, yesterday's comeback was equivalent to a 3 run comeback in a neutral park. The wind was howling out, Colorado has 3 healthy position players, and the Cubs are red hot.

 

To me, I think the Cubs will be tough to catch. But, it's definitely possible. Theroit, Cedeno, Soto, Dempster, Soriano, Marmol, and Fukudome are all going to come back to earth.

 

32 home games and 23 road games is a big deal too. Just look at how much better the Brewers pitching is at home than on the road.

 

The Cubs can easily lose 10 of 15 with the Brewers winning 10 of 15. No reason to sweat it yet.

[rluzinski]

Yes, the Cubs are going to come back to earth and start playing closer to the level that they were expected to before the season started. Unfortunately, they were expected to win around 88 games, which puts them at 92 expected wins for 2008.

 

32 home games and 23 road games is a big deal too

 

No it's not. It just means that the Cubs have to play 9 more games on the road than an average team at this point. An average team has about an 8% less of a chance winning on the road than at home (.540 winning% at home, .460 on the road). 8% x 9 games = about 3/4 of a win. It's certainly worth mentioning but the average team doesn't have that big of a home/road split.

[kiwi brewer]

true Rluz. but when you look at opponents instead of home and away i see the cubs having a tough June and a really, really tough september. if the teams on their september schedule are still playing as well as they are now (possible?) the cubs are going to have their hands full. and wouldn't that be sweet to see them fold in the final month of the season with the brewers being a part of their demise, whether we make the playoffs or not?

 

plenty of time for a few Cub injuries. plenty of time.

 

and by the way... The Cubs are still The Cubs are still The Cubs. anything can happen. if they do make the Series, though, I would love nothing more than the White Sox beating them. Chicago may implode.

[Fatter than Joey]

Once the luck starts running out for Soto, I think we'll have a much better view of what he is as a batter.

 

I have seen enough that I think Soto is a plus/top player for C in the NL. I agree we may not know what his exact level will end up being, but I think he be better than what most teams are running out at the C spot.

 

I like the Cubs balance, and I think the big advantage that they have over the Brewers, is a lot of veterans that are not Kapleresque veterans.

[kiwi brewer]

what does everyone think of the Rothschild vs Maddux argument? while we are talking about the cubs getting it done, we may as well bring up the fact that their pitching has been pretty solid, while ours has faltered... but isn't dead yet.

 

has Rothschild gotten more out of his staff than Maddux? is this a major or THE major difference in these teams right now?

 

and wait!!! did i just see correctly that the cubs are 25-8 at home now?! they have lost HALF of their games at home on June 1st to the Brewers?!

[logan82]

kiwi brewer wrote:

has Rothschild gotten more out of his staff than Maddux? is this a major or THE major difference in these teams right now?

I would say it is more to do with our position players under performing than any other one thing. However, we haven't pitched well either so I would say some from column A, some from column B. Oh yeah, and that little thing about our 2nd best pitcher going down for the year.

[Ennder]

I think the argument goes one of the better defenses in the NL vs one of the worst defenses in the NL more than Maddux vs Rothschild.

[Fike85]

BABIP:

 

Geovany Soto: .365

Ryan Theriot: .349

Kosuke Fukudome: .358

Aramis Ramirez: .340

League Average: ~.300

 

BABIP/LOB%

 

Carlos Zambrano: .282/82.3%

Ryan Dempster: .231/72.5 %

League Average: ~.300/~72%

[Fatter than Joey]

what does everyone think of the Rothschild vs Maddux argument?

 

Ennder is right that the D is a MUCH bigger variable than the pitching coaches, -- I think the Cubs F.O. has done a better job with pitching than the Brewers have done recently as well.

[jjfanec]

Ennder is right that the D is a MUCH bigger variable than the pitching coaches, -- I think the Cubs F.O. has done a better job with pitching than the Brewers have done recently as well.

The F.O. has done a better job with a bunch more money to spend, so it is kind of hard to compare. They have the money to lock up anyone they want, like Lee, Ramirez, and Zambrano. They can afford to give out big contracts like Soriano, Fukudome, and even Derosa got a nice size contract. Ted Lilly has been alright and they over spent a little on Jason Marquis. They did nice to get Wood stay for a discount rate and they have developed some nice players in Soto, Marmol, and Theriot (even though I think he is going to like Nick Punto and come back to reality after one good year) and they did well putting Dempster in the rotation. That is most of their team and just looking at that I dont think the front office did amazing. I think this a team with a very good lineup and a very average rotation. Right now Z and Dempster have ERA's in the mid 2's and then their other 3 current starters are 4.5 or higher.

 

[Fatter than Joey]

The F.O. has done a better job with a bunch more money to spend, so it is kind of hard to compare.

 

No it's not --- People just assume the Cubs spent more, than perhaps they spent more wisely.

 

Cubs Pitchers

Gallagher .4

Eyre 3.8

Howry 4.5

Lieber 3.5

Marmol .43

Wood 4.2

Lilly 8

Marquis 6.375

Zambrano 16

Wuertz .86

Dempster 7.3

Hill .4

Total -- ~56M

 

-------------------------

Brewers

Gagne 10

McClung .75

Mota 3.2

Riske 4

Shouse 2

Tavarez .4

Torres 3.3

Bush 2.5

Cappy 3.7

Yo .4

Parra .4

Sheets 12

Turnbow 3.2

Suppan 8.2

Villy .4

Total -- ~55M

 

The Brewers and Cubs have spent roughly the same amount of money for this year's pitching. I fail to see the money advantage.

 

They have the money to lock up anyone they want, like Lee, Ramirez, and Zambrano.

 

My post dealt with pitching, but the Cubs made incredibly shrewd trades to get Lee and Ramirez.

 

That is most of their team and just looking at that I dont think the front office did amazing.

 

No one said they did "amazing" -- I said that I think the Cubs FO is more of a factor than the pitching coaches, when comparing the Brewers and Cubs.

[jeffy]

Yes, the Cubs are going to come back to earth and start playing closer to the level that they were expected to before the season started. Unfortunately, they were expected to win around 88 games, which puts them at 92 expected wins for 2008.

 

An average team has about an 8% less of a chance winning on the road than at home (.540 winning% at home, .460 on the road).

 

Well...Cubs have 26 wins at home, if they win 54% of remaining home games that will be another 25 wins. They have 11 road wins, if they win 46% of remaining road games, that is another 26 wins. Adding it up...26+25+11+26 = 88 wins. So if they are average the rest of the way, they will match the preseason expectation.

[RU Rah Rah]

Nice tally, FTJ. It underscores how bad the Gagne deal was.

[rluzinski]

So if they are average the rest of the way, they will match the preseason expectation.

 

They could certainly play like a below average team for the rest of the year. They could also stay on the same pace and finish with 100 wins. Anything is possible. I'm just trying to come up with a reasonable estimate for their most likely final record and it's north of 92 wins the way I see it.

 

There's no reason to believe the Cubs are really just an average team. They were projected to be above average and they've played well above average so far.

[Fatter than Joey]

Nice tally, FTJ. It underscores how bad the Gagne deal was.

 

That and the need for the Brewers to have 13 pitchers this season.

[jjfanec]

FTJ that is a nice list for payroll and I did not realize how close the pitching price was. However did the Cubs really do a better job spending that money? If the Brewers had Gallardo right now it would look a lot different. Take Dempster out of the Cubs rotation and you have a bad rotation. I did quick math and the Brewers put about 37 million into their top 7 guys, not counting Capuano. The Cubs have about 42 million in their top seven starters. Injuries to Gallardo and even Cappy (he would be better than McClung) have hurt the Brewers, whereas the Cubs starters have stayed healthy.

Yes they did make shrewd deals to get Lee and Ramirez but they also need the money to lock them up long term. Ramirez is making 15 million and Lee is making 13.5 million add Soriano's 14 million in there that is 3 starters making 42.5 million. They also have 4 starters making over 6.3 million. According to ESPN's salary page the Cubs have a payroll over 40 million higher than the Crew. That is quite substantial. I am not at all using that as an excuse for why were are not playing better but it definitely is a benefit for the FO. The Brewers would have had to decided who to keep out of Lee and Ramirez. It is just a reality of the situation.

[Fatter than Joey]

However did the Cubs really do a better job spending that money?

 

I don't think there is any question about it for 2008. -- Gagne+Turnbow is what is dragging the Brewers down, the Cubs dont have anchors like these contracts.

 

Injuries to Gallardo and even Cappy (he would be better than McClung) have hurt the Brewers, whereas the Cubs starters have stayed healthy.

 

Yo only makes .400K, and his replacements are not making that much more, Cappy didn't even have a roster space locked up in ST, so I have a hard time justifying his absence as substantial.

 

According to ESPN's salary page the Cubs have a payroll over 40 million higher than the Crew. That is quite substantial.

 

Perhaps, but I am ONLY speaking to pitching -- in reference to the "pitching coach comparison".

 

If there is a difference in pitching results between the Cubs and Brewers, I would list the most substantial variables as: Defense (Ennder) and GM moves, WAY more critical than worrying about whose pitching coach is better.

[jjfanec]

However did the Cubs really do a better job spending that money?

 

I don't think there is any question about it for 2008. -- Gagne+Turnbow is what is dragging the Brewers down, the Cubs dont have anchors like these contracts.

 

Injuries to Gallardo and even Cappy (he would be better than McClung) have hurt the Brewers, whereas the Cubs starters have stayed healthy.

 

Yo only makes .400K, and his replacements are not making that much more, Cappy didn't even have a roster space locked up in ST, so I have a hard time justifying his absence as substantial.

I wasn't really talking about Yo in terms of money, more in terms of how good our pitching would have been with him. Sheets, Yo, Suppan, Bush, Parra is a good rotation in mind, especially given how well Soup is pitching and Parra is turning a corner. You are right the Gagne contract is bad. Turnbow is only making 3.2 that is less than Bobby Howry and Scott Eyre. The Cubs dont have anchor contracts like Gagne although Marquis will be out of their rotation if Hill figures it out and he has a big contract. But the Cubs dont have to worry about anchor contracts like the Brewers do. But what pitching signings have they made lately that make you say, wow that was good. Wood was great at the price, Lilly has been bad this year, and marquis is not good. Dempster is still making good money but I guess you can say he was a good signing, but it has only been part of a season.