Chicago Cubs getting it done

[Yeti73]

If I were Ned Yost, I would recommend getting really angry over a "bad call" that was actually correct and kicking some dirt on an umpire. It worked for the Cubs last year.

Yeah, maybe Sheets could crack Kendall in the face with a right hook and then we can ship Kendall to some team for a bag of balls.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I understand the SOS argument, but part of me doesn't buy it. Teams that have the worst records in baseball tend to end up with the toughest schedule strengths, because their opponents won more games against them compared to other teams. Of the top 10 strength of schedule teams in 2007, only 4 had records above .500, with two of them being right around .500. Only Boston and Seattle were significantly over .500. Teams like the Devil Rays, Royals, and Nationals were in the top 5, probably because they were so bad that most of their opponents got fat off them.

 

However, if we get into the SOS argument and combine it with misjudging talent/potential, we do find an interesting correlation - the team with the weakest SOS in 2007? The Milwaukee Brewers, who managed to win only 83 games with that weak schedule. Another glaring item is that the six weakest schedule strengths last year were the 6 NL Central teams. So, if the NL Central is improved at all, which it does seem to be, it would make sense that wins won't come as easy for the Brewers as they did last season.

[JenksFan5]

I am not going to make excuses for the Brewers poor play, but the Brewers hitters are underachieving (at least slightly) regardless of the lack of track record. The Cubs have clearly been the better team to this point of the season and the Brewers need to right the ship sooner rather than later if they want to even be talked about in the division race.

 

One comment I will make is that the schedule makers did the Brewers no favors this season. They have played a tough schedule thus far and have three 3-city road trips on the schedule in 2008. The Cubs have 1. The Cubs have more home games vs. the Brewers for the second straight year. The Brewers had to go to Boston for interleague play where as the Cubs have to go to Toronto and TB.

 

The only saving grace is the month of September where the Brewers have 16 home games and the Cubs have a tough schedule including their only 3-city road trip. I know schedules are suppose to even out over time, but the Brewers do have the tougher schedule over the course of 2008.

[jeffy]

Maybe we had unrealistic expectations in that we thought all of the players would pan out. How often does that happen for any team?

 

Seems like all the time, if you are the Twins http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/ohwell.gif

 

 

[Fear The Chorizo]

The other issue I have with schedule strength is that different pitching matchups totally change the difficulty of any series of games. Trying to go back and look at how many times a team misses the opponents' ace compared to a different schedule is extremely hard to do. In that regard schedule strength isn't really about who you play, it's when you play them. I will agree that the biggest variance in schedule is interleague opponents, since teams don't play the same interleague schedules. The saving grace is that if you are truly better than the rest of your division, the # of inter-division games gives more than enough opportunity to overcome any scheduling advantages...IF the team that appears to be slighted by their schedule is actually a playoff-caliber team.

[pitchleague]

eh, their playing out of their gourds, sure, but it won't last all year.

 

Just look at the standings. There are many last place/under performing teams that will NOT finish that way.

 

New York Yankees--last place in AL East. That won't be where they finish. If they do, I'll eat my hat. No, wait, first I'll celebrate with a parade down Main Street, and THEN I'll eat my hat.

 

Detroit Tigers--last place in AL Central. That won't be where they finish. Just too much talent. Oh, and Kansas City is in that division.

 

Seattle Mariners--last place in AL West. Okay, they probably belong in the cellar but I'd bet you Texas finishes in last at the end of the year.

 

Washington Nationals--last place in NL East. They, too, belong in the cellar.

 

San Diego Padres--last place in the NL West. Eventually, San Francisco is going to take over last place over these guys, right? They've got the worst record in the majors (!) right now, but I can't see them finishing last. Fourth place, yes, but not last.

 

New York Mets/Philadelphia Phillies/Atlanta Braves--the middle of the NL East. These three teams have underachieved thus far and one of them will rise to the top. Bank on it.

 

It's happening all over baseball where teams are playing very poor baseball for the first 7-8 weeks. They will rise again and play ball. Just the same as the over-achievers (Twins, Marlins, Reds, Astros, Cardinals, Athletics) will fall back towards what was expected of them.

 

Now, I know that anything can, and sometimes, will happen, but although I'm worried about the Brewers something has GOT to give sooner or later (at least on offense).

[TooLiveBrew]

What interests me about the rises & falls is that early in a season -- or more accurately, any small segment of a 162-game season -- certain teams will have inherently played tougher schedules, & certain other teams will have played softer schedules. It's funny to me how 2007 was the polar opposite of 2008 for the Brewers in this regard. It's easy to forget the schedule was the main reason the Crew jumped out to that 24-10 start. I have to remind myself on a daily basis that the record which matters is the aggregate over 162 games, no matter how many ups & downs a season sees.

[zzzmanwitz]

It is worth noting, though, that against teams that aren't the Pittsburgh Pirates, the Cubs are only 17-16.

Thanks for reporting that interesting information. That led me to investigate and discover that against teams that are not in 1st place in another division, the Brewers are 19-16 (they are 1-8 against FL and Boston).

Update

 

Cubs now 17-17

Brewers 20-16

[Klements Bratwurst]

What interests me about the rises & falls is that early in a season -- or more accurately, any small segment of a 162-game season -- certain teams will have inherently played tougher schedules, & certain other teams will have played softer schedules

I know we have been talking about the schedules and how they have played out this far for the Brewers and the Cubs in that every time I turn on Sportscenter, the Cubs are overwhelmingly winning at Wrigley (except when playing the Brewers), and the Brewers are on the road losing 15 of 25 games against playoff caliber teams for the most part. I don't feel good about the Brewers losing against good competition at all since if they are ready to take that next step, they should be closer to .500 on the road.

 

Now the Cubs have a real odd schedule it appears in 2008, but as they were blessed with a ton of home games in April and May, they have a REAL crucial part of their season coming up. They have done well at home, taking care of business against the likes of Pittsburgh, but also beat a good NY Mets team and the big sweep of Arizona. I would feel real good if I were a Cubs fan, no doubt.

 

Here is the breakdown of the Cubs home and away games by month:

Home Away

 

April- 16 11

May- 17 12

June- 10 17

July- 10 16

Aug- 19 9

Sep- 9 16

 

If the Brewers can just hang tough for the rest of the month of May and get to .500 and shave off a few games of their lead, they are in position to capitalize on the Cubs tougher schedule over the next two months, when the Brewers schedule turns home friendly. Also remember, the Cubs September schedule is extremely brutal. The play on the road at Cincinnati (3), St. Louis (3), Houston (3), NY Mets (4), and Milwaukee (3). Their last 7 games are on the road in September.

 

I'm just sayin.....

[cubfan1126]

A few points:

 

Pirates:

For the record the Cubs record in non Pittsburgh Pirates games is 20-17

Also for the record the Pirates record in non Chicago Cubs games is 20-16 so maybe they're not as bad as everybody thinks.

 

Schedule:

We actually have 2 3 city road trips albeit 1 of them the team gets to sleep in their own beds because it includes the Southside of Chicago but I'll guarantee that is no picnic of a road series. We also have a set of game in June that includes a San Diego, Los Angeles, Chicago, Toronto, Tampa trip. Sure 3 games in the middle are at Wrigley, but in essense that is a 5 city trip.

 

Players:

Theriot - has only 1 FULL season under his belt in which he collapsed in September so to say he is over his head MAY be a stretch at this point in the season.

Lee - at least twenty points below his expected average right now had a monster April

Soriano - Had a monster week - other than that WAY below expected norm

Ramirez - A little below average every thing else normal

DeRosa - A little over his norm

Johnson/Edmunds/Pie - All below expectations offensively

Soto - No track record

Fukudome - No MLB track record

Ward - no pinch hits until the D'backs series

Cedeno - way over his head but a part time player

 

The biggest offensive contribution has been patience at the plate and that is why this formerly free swinging team has such a high on base percentage. (Keep clogging those bases guys.)

[Glennron]

Pirates:
For the record the Cubs record in non Pittsburgh Pirates games is 20-17
Also for the record the Pirates record in non Chicago Cubs games is 20-16 so maybe they're not as bad as everybody thinks.

My bad, the other day on Sportscenter they said "And it's the Pirates first win against the Cubs in 11 games this year," I guess I should've known to look it up first. Although the Cubs are in Pittsburgh again this weekend, what the heck?

Players:
Theriot - has only 1 FULL season under his belt in which he collapsed in September so to say he is over his head MAY be a stretch at this point in the season.

He also has 2,000+ Minor League ABS in which he has OPSed .689. I'd say the fact that he's 28 and only has about 1 1/3 season's worth of Major League AB's shows that he's probably in over his head at this point. I'm not saying he's terrible or he shouldn't be in the majors, but no way should he be expected to hit this well the rest of the season.

Soto - No track record

Like others have mentioned, his BABIP is hovering near .400 after it was nearly .500 last year. I expect him to be one of the top hitting catchers for the next few years, but I'd be shocked if he continues to slug well over .600. Another thing is MLB pitchers simply have rarely faced him, if at all. Ryan Braun slugged over 1.000 against lefties last year, there was obviously no way that was going to continue for the rest of his career because pitchers begin to figure out hitters the more they face them.

[Oldcity]

Dempster is sure set to crash back to Earth.

 

Theriot had a .692 OPS in over 2000 minor league at-bats. This year so far he's at .809, so he's definitely over his head.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'm not saying he's terrible or he shouldn't be in the majors, but no way should he be expected to hit this well the rest of the season.

 

I think he's terrible in terms of a starting SS. Imho his D is avg. at best, and his offense is woeful on the whole. Both he & Cedeno are way over their heads (though cubfan was objective & pointed out the downsides for both)

[Glennron]

I'm not saying he's terrible or he shouldn't be in the majors, but no way should he be expected to hit this well the rest of the season.

 

I think he's terrible in terms of a starting SS. Imho his D is avg. at best, and his offense is woeful on the whole. Both he & Cedeno are way over their heads (though cubfan was objective & pointed out the downsides for both)

I guess I didn't really specify. Obviously compared to other starting SS he's pretty terrible, but as a bench player he's probably "average". I mean he's pretty much Craig Counsell from the right side, in terms of hitting.

[TooLiveBrew]

Yeah, I just wanted to clarify my own post -- I understood what you meant. I almost included that I thought he'd be a decent bench util. IF guy.

 

 

Here is the breakdown of the Cubs home and away games by month:

Home Away

 

April- 16 11

May- 17 12

June- 10 17

July- 10 16

Aug- 19 9

Sep- 9 16

 

Thanks for crunching that out, KB. That really helps keep perspective on the season. It does tend to strike me as funny how fans in general will react to the first month or two of a season like it's not just a part of a 162-game schedule, but instead some form of descriptive/predictive stretch, wherein teams' worth/skill becomes engraved in stone, or at least made mostly clear.

[pitchleague]

Ryan Theriot strikes me as the new David Eckstein of the National League.

[Thurston Fluff]

Johnson/Edmunds/Pie - All below expectations offensively

 

I don't know about Johnson but Pie hasn't really done much iwth his two chances in the bigs so far so I'm not sure what expectations there are. Edmunds very well could be completely washed up. Sometimes age does matter.

 

If iwas to pick a team to win the division today I'd say the Cubs simply because they have done what they are supposed to wiht the easy part of thier scheduale and the Brewers have the "YoGa injury that will set them back unless they can swing a trade sooner than later. Overall though I'm not going to hand the Cubs the division until they do face the more difficult part of their schedule and remian ahead of the Brewers over that stretch.

[TooLiveBrew]

Pie is very young still ('08 is his age-23 season). If the Cubs don't think he's ready, I'm not sure why they don't just ship him back to Iowa for the season/an extended stay. In keeping him on the MLB bench, imo they run the risk of duplicating their treatment of Murton.

[jeffy]

the Pirates record in non Chicago Cubs games is 20-16 so maybe they're not as bad as everybody thinks.

Here's hoping they start proving it, but not just yet...this weekend.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

Despite a sweep in Pitsburgh, the Cubs are below .500 (9-10) on the road. They have also played the fewest road games in the division.

[Klements Bratwurst]

Overall though I'm not going to hand the Cubs the division until they do face the more difficult part of their schedule and remian ahead of the Brewers over that stretch

I totally agree here. With the Yo injury, that puts the Cubs in the driver's seat for sure. If by the time the Cubs come into August from their two month summer vacation away from Wrigley and they are comfortably in first place, then kudos to them. They have done what the Brewers youth failed to do last year, put the rest of the division away.

 

I am still holding out hope that the Crew can just stay close and then can swing a trade for the likes of Maddux or something (not giving up much hopefully) to bolster their chances. The Cubs have been pretty injury free, save Soriano's 2 week stint when he couldn't hit the broad side of a barn with his bat. If they were to lose someone of significance for the season, (Zambrano, Lilly, ARam, DLee) then it really could start to even things out for us and the rest of the division. Losing Yo, who is a better #2 than Lilly was a devastating blow....alas, what can you do?

[nate82]

Heres an article http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/8159418/Numbers-paint-a-confusing-picture-for-Cubs

 

It is an interesting piece especially with Dempster's BABIP of .211

[Thurston Fluff]

I know it's only one series but when they had to play a team with a winning record on the road they did lose two of three. Marmol is on pace to play over 80 games and has more innings than games played. In his major league career so far he had logged a high of 77 innings in 06 but that year he had 13 of 19 appearances as a starter so it's differant than going three days in a row like he has multiple times this year so far. Last year he has 69.1 IP in 59 games. Lou seems to be rolling the dice with him hoping he can handle the workload without breaking down. If he does hold up it would be nice for them but it is a pretty big risk to use him so much, so ealry when they have a lot of road games later in the year.

[Glennron]

Yeah, that article that Nate82 posted the link to said he's on pace for 104 IP this year. In the last week Theriot's OPS has dropped .031 and Soto's .035, so hopefully that'll continue http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

 

[Thurston Fluff]

Maybe cubfan would have a more informed opinion on this but doesn't it seem that Marmol is sort of the glue that holds that pen together? Granted they have some servicable guys in the pen beside him but, Marmol aside, all I see is the equivelant of the Brewers pen without the depth.

[RU Rah Rah]

It pains me to note this, but, with their win over the Rockies last night, the Cubs have the best record in MLB now at 33-21. Let's hope it's downhill from here for them....