Move Weeks Down the Order

[jjfanec]

A grounder to me is still better than a K because a it can find a hole for a hit, it can be misplayed or it can be in the hole where they can only get one out. Put it this way a grounder is better with a runner at 3rd, runners at 2nd and 3rd, and some times with runners at the corners. A K does absolutely no good. For all the talk about JJ being a threat to ground into a double play he has grounded into one more than Hall all year. From what I can gather they have had about the same amount of opportunities as well.

[DrWood]

I would guess that the value (contribution to scoring runs) is higher for putting the ball in play over a SO in every situation (inning, score, men on, outs).

 

Nope. Many situations, but not all. Bullox's runners on the corner example is a perfect one.

I'd have to see some numbers on that. Given that the number of DP is less than twice the number of errors for the team, and the error moves the runners AND puts another runner on base, AND there is the sacrifice opportunity if the BIP is an out... I get why you think it might be so, but I think it's closer than you think and might well still be an advantage to the hit ball.

 

[nate82]

Hardy

By Situation	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
On Second	10	2	2	0	0	0	1	4	0	1	0	0	.200	.429	.200	.629
On Third	5	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	.200	.200	.200	.400
First and Second	10	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	.000	.167	.000	.167
First and Third	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Second and Third	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	.250	.250	.250	.500
Bases Loaded	5	2	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	.200	.167	.200	.367
1B Only	27	1	10	4	0	1	6	4	0	3	0	0	.370	.452	.630	1.082
Men On, 2 out	26	4	5	2	0	1	6	5	0	3	0	0	.192	.323	.385	.708
Man on 3rd, <2 out	7	3	2	0	0	0	3	0	0	1	0	0	.286	.250	.286	.536
Lead Off Inning	37	0	11	1	0	1	1	1	0	7	0	0	.297	.316	.405	.721
None On/Out	38	1	11	1	0	1	1	1	0	8	0	0	.289	.308	.395	.703
None On, 1/2 out	44	0	9	1	0	0	0	5	0	7	0	0	.205	.286	.227	.513
Close and Late	27	3	11	1	0	0	2	1	0	4	0	0	.407	.429	.444	.873
None On	82	1	20	2	0	1	1	6	0	15	0	0	.244	.295	.305	.600
Runners On	64	10	15	4	0	1	11	10	0	7	0	0	.234	.333	.344	.677
Scoring Position	37	9	5	0	0	0	5	6	0	4	0	0	.135	.250	.135	.385
Scoring Posn, 2 out	19	3	2	0	0	0	2	5	0	3	0	0	.105	.292	.105	.397

Hall

By Situation	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Man on 3rd, <2 out	6	3	2	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	0	1	.333	.429	.333	.762
Scoring Posn, 2 out	19	2	5	1	0	1	6	3	0	3	0	0	.263	.364	.474	.838
First and Second	18	2	4	1	0	1	7	2	0	7	0	1	.222	.300	.444	.744
First and Third	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Second and Third	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000
Bases Loaded	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000
Close and Late	31	2	6	3	0	2	4	5	0	8	1	1	.194	.306	.484	.790
Runners On	63	10	12	1	0	3	15	10	1	16	1	3	.190	.311	.349	.660
Scoring Position	41	8	10	1	0	2	13	5	1	11	0	2	.244	.340	.415	.755
On Second	11	2	4	0	0	1	4	2	1	2	0	0	.364	.500	.636	1.136
On Third	4	2	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	.250	.250	.250	.500
Men On, 2 out	26	4	6	1	0	2	8	3	0	5	1	0	.231	.310	.500	.810
Lead Off Inning	38	0	11	4	0	4	4	2	0	11	0	0	.289	.325	.711	1.036
None On	98	6	20	5	0	6	6	5	0	30	0	0	.204	.243	.439	.682
None On/Out	39	4	11	4	0	4	4	2	0	12	0	0	.282	.317	.692	1.009
None On, 1/2 out	59	2	9	1	0	2	2	3	0	18	0	0	.153	.194	.271	.465
1B Only	22	2	2	0	0	1	2	5	0	5	1	1	.091	.259	.227	.486

Not really good for both Hall or Hardy. I wouldn't want either batting in the #5 spot ever. If the Brewers move Weeks down in the batting order it gets even worse. Weeks in the 5th spot would be equally as bad as putting Hall or Hardy in the 5th spot. Putting Cameron in the 5th spot would also be a bad idea.

 

Right now Hart is where he should be. Hart has to be in the 5th spot it is the best spot for him to be hitting in right now. If you put Hart in the #1 spot you lose the production in the 5th spot. Now you have replaced a minor hole and made a major hole in the lineup. You just made the team worse than it was by moving Hart to the lead off spot. Putting Hart at lead off would be a huge mistake.

[TooLiveBrew]

Right now Hart is where he should be. Hart has to be in the 5th spot it is the best spot for him to be hitting in right now. If you put Hart in the #1 spot you lose the production in the 5th spot. Now you have replaced a minor hole and made a major hole in the lineup. You just made the team worse than it was by moving Hart to the lead off spot. Putting Hart at lead off would be a huge mistake.

 

Very well-said, nate. I think that's the best analysis I've seen on where Hart 'should' bat.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

I'd have to see some numbers on that.

 

Trying to oblige. Not sure you'll be satisfied, because I can't find anywhere where this is broken down by base-out state. So I'll have to make do with the average value of each event across all possible base-out states. These are the linear weight values of the offensive events in question from the NL in 2007:

 

strikeout: -.292

groundout: -.312

flyout: -.278

 

When the defense makes an error, it's still scored as a groundout or a flyout (or if it's the kind of error that changes a single into a double, etc, it's still scored as whatever kind of hit it originally would have been), so the value of the occasional defensive screw-up should be factored in there. I got these numbers here:

 

http://spiff.rit.edu/richmond/baseball/lwts/lwts_intro.html

 

So, in general, flyouts are better than strikeouts, but strikeouts are better than groundouts.

 

EDIT: Hey, found what I was looking for after all. Here are breakouts based on the 24 base-out states. No differentiation between groundouts and flyouts here. Look in the "out" and "K" columns, which fortunately are adjacent:

 

http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902event.html

 

This is for 1999-2002, so the numbers might actually be slightly different today. We're not in quite as drastic a high-offense context anymore. But I doubt the greater than / less than relationships would change much. Basically, what you'll see is that a K is as good as (or slightly better than) an out except when there is a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs, and when there is a runner on 2nd and nobody out. Dr. Wood is not entirely off-base here, it's just that the impact of these situations is sufficiently low to disregard Ks when constructing a roster or a lineup.

 

A revision of the original controversial statement might go something like: "Strikeouts should never be considered worse than other outs when it comes to player evaluation, but there are certainly instances in which strikeouts are worse than other outs."

[DrWood]

well, the average of the "outs" is -.295. What you've really provided is documentation that someone agrees with you. He doesn't clarify how he derived those numbers, but it is at least partially a guess.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

well, the average of the "outs" is -.295. What you've really provided is documentation that someone agrees with you. He doesn't clarify how he derived those numbers, but it is at least partially a guess.

I don't see it as a guess, but I guess that's gonna depend on your opinions about markov chains and statistical modelling in general. Here's a nice article that talks about the history of linear weights as a concept and also goes into the math a bit for those interested.

 

http://danagonistes.blogspot.com/2004/10/brief-history-of-run-estimation.html

[DrWood]

I know all about markov chains and statistical modeling. Want to see my grad school transcripts? Plenty of those numbers were educated guesses, and the webpage didn't indicate how the others were estimated.

[TooLiveBrew]

Um, I think he was trying to be nice to you & help you out.

[DrWood]

Um, I think he was trying to be nice to you & help you out.

 

sometimes I'm beyond hope. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[olliegjw]

well, the average of the "outs" is -.295. What you've really provided is documentation that someone agrees with you. He doesn't clarify how he derived those numbers, but it is at least partially a guess.

I don't see it as a guess, but I guess that's gonna depend on your opinions about markov chains and statistical modelling in general. Here's a nice article that talks about the history of linear weights as a concept and also goes into the math a bit for those interested.

 

http://danagonistes.blogspot.com/2004/10/brief-history-of-run-estimation.html

Aren't these studies treating all ground balls are outs in these situations? What is the value of a groundball, or flyball, in relation to a K, regardless if its an out or not? Isn't that finding the real value of putting the ball in play?

[endaround]

That's already fully covered by OBP. The point is that outs are bad, the type of out is window dressing.

[olliegjw]

That's already fully covered by OBP. The point is that outs are bad, the type of out is window dressing.

No matter what the situation, I will always take a groundball over a strikeout. A strikout will never do any good. Sure, a groundball could result in a DP, but the odds of that are much smaller than it resulting in a hit, error, or productive out.

Edit: Are strike'em out throw'em out DP's included in these statistics?