Move Weeks Down the Order

[dadofandrew]

The irony here is, batting order makes little difference. Many of the ideas here are backwards as well, such as the post above makes clear, as Hardy has hit horribly, yet some still want to move him up.

 

Much ado about very little. The problem is not what order guys hit in the lineup, it's how the guys in the lineup hit.

[TooLiveBrew]

Weeks isn't injured right now, having an awesome month and a half to end 2007 is great, but he's had an awful first month and a half of 2008..kind of cancels itself out if you ask me

 

I never said he was injured right now. We have roughly 4 months of 'healthy' data. What's troubling to me is that not only are people willing to use that small a sample to start saying that 'he's not right', they're using half that sample to say so... when there's an equal or greater portion where Weeks put up MVP caliber numbers. Does it not count since it was last season? If you're arguing that it "cancels it out", shouldn't your opinion be that we need to not make a rushed statement about Rickie? That would put him at 'neutral' if it cancels out.

[BrewCrewForever]

The irony here is, batting order makes little difference. Many of the ideas here are backwards as well, such as the post above makes clear, as Hardy has hit horribly, yet some still want to move him up.

 

Much ado about very little. The problem is not what order guys hit in the lineup, it's how the guys in the lineup hit.

I guess I can see your point here. The only reason I want Hardy batting 2 is he has hit well in that spot before ahead of Braun and Prince. I would be fine with Kendall batting 2, but that would put Hart at leadoff and although I like him there you need him in an RBI role at #5.

 

[jjfanec]

Cameron .711 OPS

Bill Hall .675 OPS

 

Rickie Weeks .655 OPS

J.J. Hardy .635 OPS

None of them are doing well, but Hardy's non-existant slugging percentage along with the low OBP makes him the worst hitter so far. No way should he be batting second; he's right where he should be.

 

OPS is an extremely important stat, but so is K's for a number 2 hitter or any hitter for that matter. Here are the K stats - Hall 46, Weeks 32, Cameron 24, and Hardy 22. Cameron has more K's than Hardy in 24 fewer games. Hall has twice as many. To me that also shows how bad a hitter is doing, as well as OBP which Hardy is .40 points higher than Hall and .30 points higher than Cameron. I think those stats show it is a tight three way battle for worst hitter between Hall, Cameron, and Hardy, with Weeks in the mix. I would go for Hall as the worst hitter right now, just because of his terrible average, OBP, and K's. But a good argument could be made for the others.

 

[DrWood]

The irony here is, batting order makes little difference. Many of the ideas here are backwards as well, such as the post above makes clear, as Hardy has hit horribly, yet some still want to move him up.

 

Much ado about very little. The problem is not what order guys hit in the lineup, it's how the guys in the lineup hit.

That is untrue. Weeks clearly is trying to see more pitches to help the other batters, and he has said this. I suspect he will perform better if he can be more aggressive.

 

What matters little regarding batting order is the number of runs produced by the team if you shuffle up the lineup AND the players perform exactly as they had in another slot. But even that makes some difference--that's why Kendall is batting 9th, for example.

 

[TooLiveBrew]

Cameron has more K's than Hardy in 24 fewer games. Hall has twice as many.

 

Both Cameron & Hall are high strikeout guys. I don't think there's any reason for JJ's OBP being higher other than his 40-points-higher BA.

 

 

it is a tight three way battle for worst hitter between Hall, Cameron, and Hardy, with Weeks in the mix. I would go for Hall as the worst hitter right now, just because of his terrible average, OBP, and K's. But a good argument could be made for the others.

 

It sucks having so many candidates for this title. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif

[endaround]

K's are never an important stat. And the fact that Hrady can GIDP more than Cameron isn't some great selling point. And Hardy has hit better in front of the pitcher than elsewhere in the lienup. That another of those Schroeder things that just isn't true.

[DrWood]

K's are never an important stat.

Never?

[1992casey]

Strikeouts don't work well for player evaluation, so they should be shoved aside in that sense. If the manager is looking for a pinch hitter in a situation where a strikeout is going to be more harmful than other kinds of outs, then they should be considered.

 

By the way, I've hidden a couple of messages that contained full lineups. Per Major League Forum rules, please keep full lineup posts in the designated lineup thread.

[bcf5575]

you can argue k's,ops,ba,ob whatever - it is just time to do something different with the lineup. move weeks down, hardy up, hart up, cameron down. the place in the lineup obviously effects prince and braun - why wouldn't it effect the others in a similar way? there are 4 guys in the everyday lineup hitting at or below .200 - just try anything at this point.

last year every game had a different lineup. now it never changes. there has to be a balance there somewhere...

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

K's are never an important stat.

Never?

For major league hitters, this is one "never" that is essentially true. A lot of analysts like to look at strikeout rates in the minors (along with walks, obviously) as a way of guaging a positional prospect's control of the strike zone, and to what extent he's being overmatched by the pitchers at that level. And strikeouts are among the most important stats for pitchers at any level. But for major league hitters, I would agree that strikeouts are never important.

 

Having a 2 hitter that is a 3TO kind of guy is actually a bit of a boon, in my mind, because it removes a lot of the temptation for the manager to employ 1 run strategies that give up outs right before the best hitters come up. To the extent that lineup order matters (not very much), #2 is not where you should stick a contact-hitting-productive-out-machine, as has traditionally been supposed. It's where your best hitter should go. If we're not ready to stick Braun or Fielder there (with the other one 4th), we might as well go with Cameron so we don't see quite as many outs sacrificed to the gods of small ball.

[mothershipconnection]

Never?

 

Not much if you take a static look at it. They can be a better indicator if the number is trending or fluctuating a lot, but the other numbers can still all go up while K's go up as well. Still K number is never near the same importance of OBP, SLG, AVG. I'd say K's have the most importance from a coaching and player development standpoint, as you may see that a certain approach to plate discipline and more or less free swinging leads to different numbers for the major offensive indicators.

[TooLiveBrew]

Having a 2 hitter that is a 3TO kind of guy is actually a bit of a boon, in my mind, because it removes a lot of the temptation for the manager to employ 1 run strategies that give up outs right before the best hitters come up.

 

Well-said. I do like this one thing about Ned -- he doesn't play small ball very often. We're lucky in that regard. It's shocking to me how many MLB managers 'know' that giving up outs is the way to 'get things started.'

[jjfanec]

While I agree to some extent that K's are not as important as other stats I think they are important when a guy does not walk or hit for average. A guy like Adam Dunn who strikes out a lot is still valuable because he walks a ton and slugs well. A guy like Braun who strikes out somewhat frequently is still valuable because he maintains a nice average and slug a lot. However a guy like Hall is striking out a ton and ranked 13th and 11th in the NL respectively in OBP and Slugging, while being 2nd in K's. That shows lack of plate discipline. If you are going to strike out a lot without walking much pitchers are going to quit pitching you strikes. And unless you are a good bad ball hitter like Soriano, Braun, or Vlad you are in trouble.

That is why I am okay with Weeks striking out because he walks a lot. He leads all 2B in walks which is a plus for a leadoff guy. I would actually like Weeks in the two spot for that reason. I think he is a better fit there than Kendall and Hardy. I actually thought hardy didnt do well there in the past.

[TooLiveBrew]

If Rickie can even finish the season with a .250 BA (I think he'll be more in the .260-.280 range), his OBP would be among the league leaders at any lineup slot. I still like him as the leadoff hitter, even though right now he's obviously struggled to get going.

[DrWood]

ok, great to know that when I have a runner on third with one out, a strikeout is just as good as a fly ball to the outfield. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[bullox]

ok, great to know that when I have a runner on third with one out, a strikeout is just as good as a fly ball to the outfield. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

 

Or how about when there are runners on 1st and 3rd with 1 out. Would you rather have the K or a groundball to short?

 

 

It goes both ways.

[DrWood]

ok, great to know that when I have a runner on third with one out, a strikeout is just as good as a fly ball to the outfield. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

 

Or how about when there are runners on 1st and 3rd with 1 out. Would you rather have the K or a groundball to short?

 

 

 

 

The groundball. My runner can take out the 2b, and the runner at third will score! Or the SS can boot the ball.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

ok, great to know that when I have a runner on third with one out, a strikeout is just as good as a fly ball to the outfield. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

If we could somehow guarantee that all such opportunities came for the hitter in the 2 spot, I would agree that strikeouts would become a worthwhile stat to consider in filling out the lineup card. That's not how it works, though. If anything, the 2 spot is much more likely to see a bunch of opportunities to hit into double plays (so long as the team is at least smart enough to use a high OBP guy in the leadoff spot).

[DrWood]

My only problem was with the absolute word "never". I would guess that the value (contribution to scoring runs) is higher for putting the ball in play over a SO in every situation (inning, score, men on, outs). It's going to be an error once every 30 times or so, anyway, so that has value above the opportunity for sacrifices to move runners.

[logan82]

I think Weeks actually is the perfect candidate for the leaoff spot. His large split in BA and OBP means that he is often getting on base by means other than hitting. The leadoff spot is the spot in the order that comes up most often with no runners on base which means that a single, BB and HBP have roughly the same value. Unless of course you think Weeks is really a below .200 hitter, which over his career he has shown he is not. Hitting in the leaoff spot most of the time no less.

[DrWood]

I think Weeks actually is the perfect candidate for the leaoff spot..

 

But what if he could put up an OPS over .900 batting 5th?

[TooLiveBrew]

I would guess that the value (contribution to scoring runs) is higher for putting the ball in play over a SO in every situation (inning, score, men on, outs).

 

Nope. Many situations, but not all. Bullox's runners on the corner example is a perfect one.

[BADGERJOBOB]

The irony here is, batting order makes little difference. Many of the ideas here are backwards as well, such as the post above makes clear, as Hardy has hit horribly, yet some still want to move him up.

 

Much ado about very little. The problem is not what order guys hit in the lineup, it's how the guys in the lineup hit.

 

The problem is the current lineup is not working so why not mix it up. Why not start platooning certain individuals. JJ has been horrible but I don't think he is that much worse than Weeks or Cameron. You lead off Hart and then place a number 2 hitter who will bunt, hit the ball to the right side, take pitches. Cameron might be that guy but he is so screwed up that he really needs to be platooned and moved down in the order. Really need to attempt to mix things up and stir up the pot as leaving everything stand pat is obviously not working. These changes don't have to be long term or make sense for that matter, just need to find a spark and get the ball rolling.

[logan82]

I would have no problem with Yost picking a lineup out of a hat once a month. Taking all our everyday starters, put the pitcher in the 8th hole and picking the rest out of a hat.