Can anyone in Huntsville or Nashville help our horrible bottom of the rotation in Milwaukee?

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I noticed that this guy is doing pretty well for AA Huntsville. He's getting very good run support so his 6-1 record looks better than it is, but he's got a 4 ERA and it looks like he can eat up innings as he has went 51 innings in 9 starts. He's also lefty. Anyone know what kind of pitches this guy has and what kind of velocity he gets? He's 24 years old so a promotion to AAA would be kind of nice to see what we've got in him.

[jjfanec]

Welch is looking decent, but Hammond, Narron, and Miller are all looking better in my mind and they are all lefties and in the 24-26 year old range. I think they would all get called up first. I think Hammond will be the first.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Well it's good to see some quality pitching down in AA then. Nothing amazing, but quality at the least.

[LouisEly]

Hey now, don't go talking about my avatar!

 

A top prospect he is not, and Hammond is definitely ahead of him as far as leftys go. I'm not so sure about Miller, as his WHIP is in the same neighborhood as Welch suggesting that Miller has been more lucky than Welch as far as ERA, and Welch is a year and a half younger than Miller at the same level (and a year younger than Hammond). While Miller strikes more guys out, Welch last year in the FSL allowed the fewest baserunners per game by a starter, and had the second fewest walks per nine innings of a starter also. Welch is also two years younger than Narron.

 

Welch probably tops out as a #4 starter at best, but if he can maintain that control and limit baserunners he may have a shot.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

That's good to hear. Do you know what kind of velocity he gets and what pitches he has?

[jjfanec]

I definitely think Hammond is the best of the group and the one to get most excited about. The other 3 are harder to project because of their low K totals.

Like Rillo I would like to know what what Welch has for pitches.

I know Narron, who is now in AAA and had a nice first start, has a great change, and not a ton of speed on his fastball.

And I dont know about Miller. I thought I had read somewhere this Spring in one of the minor league publications that Miller was a guy to keep an eye one in the Milwaukee system since he was a lefty. His K numbers are down this year compared to last in the same league. His end to last year at Huntsville over 11 games was better statistically that this year has been.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Is it whacky for me to say that Narron would be a better callup than Jeff Weaver? He's intriguing with his 6'7" frame and 2.77 ERA. He's 27 years old so he looks more than ready. I'd give him a shot if McClung doesn't work out in his audition for the rotation.

[TheCrew07]

I always thought of Narron as Shouse without the unique arm angle, maybe I'm wrong.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Where do you see the similarity between Narron and Shouse? I have no clue because I've never seen Narron.

[TheCrew07]

They aren't similar pitchers exactly in what they throw, I meant more very soft tossing lefties. I think Shouse succeeds largely because of his arm angle, Narron's greatest asset is the change up. I don't really feel all that great about Shouse as a pitcher, though he gets good results, and that's honestly the same way I've felt about Narron which is why I never include him in the prospect discussions. He gets good results with nothing spectacular, or as my father always said, "With smoke and mirrors". Parra was an easy lefty to project, JDLR was easy to project, the stuff esd obvious, and in JDLR's case, it obvious takes more than great stuff to succeed. When a pitcher doesn't have the "stuff" I'm very skeptical how long they can maintain success before MLB hitters figure them out.

[jjfanec]

I feel like lefties can get by with average stuff though. No they probably won't end up being studs, but we have seen guys like Cappy and Doug Davis hit 85-89 on the gun but have good secondary stuff. Again I dont know where Narron sits on the gun but I know he induces a lot of grounders and has a great change. He is part of a wave of pitching prospects who might only project as 4/5 typ guys if that. But if a couple of them can become 4/5 guys I think we are in good shape. We will have Yo at the top and Parra is coming around. We need some back end depth so when a guy like Cappy gets hurt, and Bush and Villy struggle we have someone who can step right in. Hopefully Narron, Welch and Miller can become those type of guys or better

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Anyone know what velocity that Narron tops out at? Does he even get close to 90 mph?

 

I'd say if he can hit 90 mph, he'll do fine as a fill in starter for the Brewers and possibly get a rotation spot next year.

 

On that note, is anyone in our system going to be in our rotation next year? I think there's a good shot looking at the group of pitchers we have as options right now in the Major Leagues:

 

Sheets - who will leave as a free agent

Gallardo - who won't return for the start of the season

 

Suppan

Parra

Bush

Villanueva

McClung

 

We are going to have to sign a free agent and/or tap into one of these guys next year to pitch every 5 days.

[Never Outhustled]

Narron has great feel and pitchability, but he is the softest of the soft tossers. Unless somethings changed from a few years ago, he sits in the mid-80s, which is kind of unheard of.

 

Dave Welch has OK velocity, good for a lefty, and remains an intriging late bloomer.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I don't like to see that kind of velocity at all, but what is Narron doing to get AAA hitters out with that horrible velocity? Jeff Weaver throws a lot faster with better stuff and he can't get an AAA hitter out worth a darn. Whatever Narron is doing in AAA, I think can translate to success in the majors.

 

Can't a 2.77 ERA in Nashvile over 52 innings translate to a 4.80 ERA in the Major Leagues over the next 52 innings? I consider that a pretty conservative estimate and a 4.80 ERA would be a lot better than Dave "Big Inning" Bush.

 

Is anyone here going to argue that they'd rather have Dave Bush in the rotation? I hope not.

[And That]

Can't a 2.77 ERA in Nashvile over 52 innings translate to a 4.80 ERA in the Major Leagues over the next 52 innings?

Possibly, but so far this year he's made one start in AAA. Those 52 innings were with Huntsville.

X is right... Narron's fastball barely even qualifies as a fastball - middle 80's might be a little generous. From what I'm aware of, he's closer to 82-83. Since he throws his change-up in the low 60's (hence getting good velocity separation) that doesn't matter too much in short appearances, but I have a tough time seeing him succeed as a major league starter because the second time through the order he'd get murdered pretty often. His future as a reliever might be a different story.

Most people don't know this, but Narron has made one major league start, in 2002 with the Rangers.

 

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

That's amazing that an 82-83 mph fastball can get even AA hitters out even with the velocity separation. You don't see that too often. The guy must know how to make his pitches, and since he has little room for error, he must not have made any mistakes this year.

 

Since a Hammond promotion to AAA is going to happen any time now, could he help the major league rotation this year at some point? Can Hammond at least throw in the low 90's with decent off speed stuff?

 

I'm trying to find somebody in AA or AAA that can come to the bigs and be a 5 ERA #5 starter. It's not much, but when your #4 and #5 starters were both over 6 ERA last week before the Villanueva demotion, 5 ERA doesn't seem all that bad any more.

[And That]

Hammond will be bumped up soon. He throws 87-92 with a few average offspeed pitches (slider and change-up). I've never been a gigantic fan, but he's certainly a better starting prospect than Narron. I doubt Hammond would be of any use in the Milwaukee rotation until August at the very, very earliest.

 

If the Brewers needed a starter from AAA tomorrow, it would still be Jeff Weaver. He's not pitched that badly, he has just given up a few too many home runs. He is what he is. If the Brewers needed a second starter from AAA tomorrow, it would be Chris Narveson. I was really impressed with Chris this spring and I still believe he's a solid pitching prospect. I'd like him to get a little more confidence in AAA before promoting him, but he's not that far off.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

After looking at Weaver and Narveson's numbers so far this year, that does not make me feel good about the back of our rotation. Why did Yo have to get hurt? What did we do to the baseball gods here in Milwaukee? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/mad.gif

[shelmark]

The short and sad answer to the question asked is no. I had hopes that Narveson may live up to his once lofty prospect status, but that bubble appears to have burst. I think as a whole the pitching in the entire organization is very poor right now. I think all 6 of our draft picks in the first 62 should be pitchers.

[JohnBriggs12]

I agree with shelmark. The system going into this season was really devoid of top line pitching prospects at the upper levels. There were no Gallardos or Parras waiting for their opportunities like a year ago.

 

Starting pitching is so hard to come by. Young guys, even the top prospects with great stuff, struggle. Veterans are struggling all over. It's why a guy like Suppan who's never been great but who manages to put up innings year after year makes what he does. That's why I don't think the Brewers should give up on a guy like Villanueva who's had some success at this level but has hit a rough stretch. They really don't have better alternatives and he's probably more likely to turn it around than a guy coming out of nowhere is to succeed.

[jjfanec]

The Brewers have some really nice arms in A ball right now. With Jeffress and Braddock as the top guys and guys like Cody, Hand, Butler, Bryson, Rivas, Anundson, Seidel, and Periard all having nice potential. It would be great to have more arms in the system but it isnt as void as some make it out to be. They just need some of the these guys in AA and AAA. Hammond, Miller and Welch are all intriguing prospects as well, if for no other reason than they have had decent success and are lefties. But I agree it looks like we need to add pitching in this draft.

[TheCrew07]

Cody doesn't have great stuff, there were articles Mass linked when he was traded for, and if I wasn't at work I'd take the time to go find his post. He had a nice outing last night, but I'm unsure how well he projects. I agree with the rest of your post though, there's a ton of potential at A and A+ collectively. As I've been saying all year, in 2 years our pitching depth will look fantastic if these guys continue to progress.

 

The system isn't devoid of quality relief prospects either, you have Pena at AAA, Ryan at AA, and Aguilar at A+ (though probably not for long), there's plenty of help coming, just not this year. I could see Pena and Ryan in the bullpen by next year as a realistic possibility, the starting pitchers are more than likely 2 years away, probably 3. I'd rather they not push them just to fill a slot, that hasn't worked out so well in the past, see Neugy... Inman might have helped next year, but he wasn't going to be a solution this year, health will always be key for the Crew, they don't have the depth yet to be able to survive key cogs going down for any amount of time.

 

I really like the potential in the starting rotations at both levels of A ball, we just have to hope they continue to progress and fullfill some of that potential.

 

Getting back to Narron, I always had it in my head that he topped out around 82? I don't remember exactly where I read that, but And That posted it as well I see, so I feel pretty comfortable posting that. Hammond has turned out to be better than I had thought to this point, I he performed last year as I had always sort of expected he would, so it was easy for me to write him off. He was never high on my radar, so I haven't followed him hardly at all.

[jjfanec]

I guess I don't know about Cody's stuff, but his numbers have been terrific. ERA at 2.33, 8.9 K's per 9, a Whip of 1.03, and only 4 HR in 32 starts. He is old for his competition so that could explain some of his numbers I guess, but a lefty with those numbers gets me a little excited anyway.

[TheCrew07]

On Cody I found a link from Mass, which linked to an older Transaction thread

 

http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?t=865

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

The team looks like it's set up nicely for 2010 with good pitching in A ball, but the rest of this year and 2009 might be pretty rough for the Brewers unless the Brewers use a high value guy like Prince Fielder in a trade to get good, young pitching from other teams. It only makes sense with LaPorta coming up and the inevitable of Prince leaving anyways.