.500 by June 1st...all will be good

[kramnoj]

know it's been mentioned before, but BP rates the Brewers "collapse" as the 40th biggest in history.

 

Something that happens once every 3 years or so doesn't seem that significant to me. If Ben Sheets doesn't get hurt last season, the Brewers are in the playoffs. There isn't much doubt in my mind there. They just got into some bad luck when that happened, and played terribly when he was out.

[jeffy]

No it wasn't a collapse. The 69 Cubs, The 78 Red Sox, The 64 Phillies now those were collapses of epic proprotions.

 

The Cubs did fall faster losing a 9 game lead between August 16 and Sept 10, with a 9-15 record during that stretch. The Mets went 20-6 during that stretch. After Aug 16, the Mets went 36-11, while the Cubs went 17-26, to finish the season in 1969. So it sure would seem like the Cubs "collapse" was also caused by a the Mets having an incredible finish to their season.

 

The Brewers went from 8.5 games ahead on June 23 to tied on Aug 1, they left 1st place for good on Sept 13. The Brewers "collapse" was more pathetic, since all it would have taken to win the division was to be a handfull of games over .500 (or one more win against the cubs to force a one game playoff), while the Cubs ended 1969 with a 92-70 record and yet were 8 games out of 1st.

 

In researching this comparison, I found this interesting site that lets you see the day by day standings in any season: http://www.baseballrace.com/main_racePlayer.asp

 

BTW, the Cubs went 52-38 from the time of the Brewers 8.5 game lead. I would not call that "insanely hot". The only insanity in this comparison would appear to be the hotness of the Mets at the end of the '69 season.

[endaround]

No one thought the Brewers were going to win at a 70 clip during the season, But at 24-10, if they play the rest of the season at .500 they win 88 games and the division easily. Instead they played .460 ball. That is bad. Yeah the Cubs played much better after their terrible start but if the Brewers played up to their ability it wouldn't have mattered. It was a collapse.

[clancyphile]

The real key willbehead-to-head games against St. Louis and the Cubs. If the Brewers can get some sweeps, they have a chance. If not... the Crew's hosed.

[olsonnet]

At this point we might just have the face the fact that the Cubs are going to play over their heads the entire year and so we should just worry about picking up W's and hope that we can get the wild card.

[homer]

Well collapse with extenuating circumstances then. I don't think anyone considered the Brewers a .500 team without Ben Sheets. Not to mention the Cubs run differential the first half of the year predicted they would greatly improve - and if memory serves the Brewers run differential predicted a fall from grace.

[Ennder]

On July 24th last year the Brewers were 56-44. Over the next 31 games the team went 9-22 putting them at 65-66. They then had a winning record over the rest of the season. The Brewers collapsed in late July and August and there really isn't any question about it.

 

The Cubs didn't stay steady after their hot streak either. The Cubs went 19-5 in late June early July and that is really what pulled their season around. So if you are saying the Brewers were just good for one 34 game streak(which was really a 21 game streak as they were 7-6 for the first 13 games) then you really are saying the Cubs were only really good for one 24 game streak.

[razzzorsharp]

I think the Brewers have a better shot at the Wildcard this year as opposed to the central crown. Cubs seem to be rolling and well-balanced. I know we are only 1/3 of the way through, and the lesson of last year is still fresh, but it would be tough.

[dadofandrew]

As I have said with the Mets many times, almost every team in the game went 5-12 at some point last year. While not every team went 9-22, not a whole lot went 24-10 either. Teams win and lose based on runs scored and allowed, not through grit and desire, butt hat makes better copy.

 

You'll note how many ground balls have found holes recently for the Crew...getting hot and getting lucky is certainly not unrelated. A win ias a win, whether it comes in a streak or not.

 

It's really a shame words like "choke" and "collapse" are ever used.

[JohnBriggs12]

Cubs have 3 relievers with 30 or more innings (4 if you count Lieber who's made one start). Brewers have just one (Torres) Piniella is burning out that pen big time. Marmol wore out last September and he's way over his innings pace this year.

 

A total collapse of the Cub bullpen by August is the Brewer's best hope.

[T B0NE 10]

At this time last year we were the Cubs and the Cubs were the Brewers....look how that ended up. Anything can change with an injury to a Zambrano or Lee. (Like our Gallardo loss, the Cubs havent lost anything yet)

[splitterpfj]

I don't think the Brewers should pay any attention to the Cubs at all - if they can keep winning series', they'll wind up right in the middle of the wildcard race - then, they can worry about who else is doing what.

 

They've made it back above .500, and there's a ton of time left in the season, nothing is over.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Would I be considered a bad person for rooting for a Cubs key injury? Come on. You all know you want to see it. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/tongue.gif

[Blindcheck]

Right now...keep winning series and we can start worrying about teams in August.

[logan82]

Would I be considered a bad person for rooting for a Cubs key injury? Come on. You all know you want to see it. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/tongue.gif

Not really. I would rather see the Cubs go in the tank without an easy excuse.

[dadofandrew]

90 innings is plenty for a reliever, but if spaced out, can easily be done by plenty of relief guys...but not the "max delivery" types, like Derrick. Time will tell.

[Thurston Fluff]

Would I be considered a bad person for rooting for a Cubs key injury? Come on. You all know you want to see it. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/tongue.gif

Not really. I would rather see the Cubs go in the tank without an easy excuse.

 

Same here. It would be oh so sweet to win the division with them full strength and we have one of our top pitchers out. Not only would there be no excuse there would be no explanation other than we were better. At this point though they have held serve with all the home games so they deserve to be where they are. I'm very interested to see what happend in the dog days when they go on the road with their best reliever having been overworked on the easy part of their schedule. That pen is above average with Marmol going like he is but kind of shallow after that. But I'm with splitter in that I'm less interested in what they do than what we do. The Brewers ahve layed the toughest part of their schedule and I'm looking forward to more series wins. The way this season is unfolding winning the division may not be the only way to get to post season play like it was last year.

[Brian the Automator]

BCU, you are some kind of sorcerer.

[lukevan]

The Cards are only 2.5 behind the Cubs and stand as the Wild Card leaders at this point so I think its a bit early to say that the Wild Card is much more reachable than the division. I don't foresee St. Louis hanging around all season, but I think the Phillies and Mets could very easily end up with records right around where the Cubs will end up.

[T B0NE 10]

.........preferably an injury to Zambrano..........I cannot stand that guy

[TooLiveBrew]

Agreed with BtA. Major respect to BCU for his prognostication!

[Thurston Fluff]

The Cards are only 2.5 behind the Cubs and stand as the Wild Card leaders at this point so I think its a bit early to say that the Wild Card is much more reachable than the division. I don't foresee St. Louis hanging around all season, but I think the Phillies and Mets could very easily end up with records right around where the Cubs will end up.

 

Never meant to imply tha tit will come form the central rahter that it was possible where last year it wasn't. If the Cubs keep up this pace (big if) the divison won't be in range but, as opposed to last season, the post seaosn can be reached without winning the division.

[lukevan]

backupL: I guess my post was more in response to razzzor's post (#82) but mostly was just my general feeling about our chances at Wild Card v. Division.

[Menotti80]

i can't believe that after how this season has gone so far, the brewers are currently on pace to win more games than last year...

[nate82]

after a 9-1 home stand the Brewers head out to Colorado and Houston and then come back home to face the Twins and another long home stand.

 

If the Brewers continue to play like this by the end of the following weekend will the Brewers be able to tie or be ahead of the Cardinals for 2nd in the division?