.500 by June 1st...all will be good

[zzzmanwitz]

Yeah... if i had a lot of spare change I would. I actually follow the odds very closely in vegas, but I do believe that a lot of bettors are casual fans and especially early in the year, its easy to get swayed by a teams record as a marker of their actual talent level.

 

I also know that Gorzelanny had a couple rough starts against the cubs and outside of those he's been ok. But the crew is seeing the ball well right now and are playing with a lot of confidence, I don't go into a series expecting a sweep, but coming out with the first two games in the way they did makes me expect a sweep after tonight.

[joepepsi]

I still feel the only message firing a manager midseason sends is ''we give up, the season is over."

I agree. I'm not enamored with Ned, but firing the manager mid season rarely results in positive change.

 

 

[zzzmanwitz]

well, my money is gone....

[Dragonbait]

rluz had it right on the nose.... We needed to score more than 4 runs... we score 4 and lose.

[rluzinski]

A little better than a 50/50 chance of being .500 by June 1st. Heck, there's around a 13% chance of being 2 games over by then http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

I know, I know. Stop being greedy.

[MBHA]

A little better than a 50/50 chance of being .500 by June 1st. Heck, there's around a 13% chance of being 2 games over by then http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

I know, I know. Stop being greedy.

There's also about the same 13% chance of being 4 games under by then with AZ coming in for 3.

[Fatter than Joey]

On May 19th, 2007

Milwaukee 26-17

Chicago 20-21 5.0 GB

 

I know a lot of people keep pointing to the Cubs/Brewers of 2007.

 

The Brewers meltdown in 2007, was one of the worst meltdowns in NL history -- (I think top 5), so while we can say "all is not lost" -- expecting something similar to 2007 probably isn't a good idea.

[ILuvDaBush]

Wouldn't the Mets' collapse last year dwarf our own? Thus, in your opinion, TWO of the worst collapses in NL history happened last year? As for our own Brewz, we're not losing ground yet. We're safe at home.

[rluzinski]

Here are how I see the odds the last 3 games of May:

 

Brewers Win:

3: 16%

2: 41%

1: 33%

0: 10%

 

As I always mention, I don't consider pitching matchups, so take those numbers with a grain of salt. Vegas and I agree that today's game is a coinflip, however and the pitching matchups look pretty good for the Brewers over the first two games against Houston:

 

Parra vs. Backe

Sheets vs. Moehler

 

The Astros are complete pretenders in my opinion. They were only projected to win about 75 games before the season started and despite being 6 games over right now, they've only outscored their opponents by 5 total runs. The Brewers are heavy favorites to win that series.

 

As for Arizona, they are the better overall team, certainly, but with the Brewers playing at home and no Webb, it's not a particularily lopsided matchup.

 

The Brewers are lucky to miss both Oswalt (even if he is struggling) and Webb. The schedule looks pretty good for June, really.

 

The Brewers meltdown in 2007, was one of the worst meltdowns in NL history -- (I think top 5), so while we can say "all is not lost" -- expecting something similar to 2007 probably isn't a good idea.

 

Ageed. And let's not forget that the Cubs were expected to be the better team in 2007 to begin with. That's was also true for 2008. If the Brewers catch the Cubs, it will even be more of a surprise.

[joepepsi]

The Astros went on an 11-2 run but have been 6-6 since. Berkman is on pace for the 19th best OPS in history. He's a great hitter, one of my favorite players, and has been carrying the team, along with solid help from Tejada, Lee, Pence, and Wiggington. I doubt he can maintain this pace.

[endaround]

Wouldn't the Mets' collapse last year dwarf our own? Thus, in your opinion, TWO of the worst collapses in NL history happened last year? As for our own Brewz, we're not losing ground yet. We're safe at home.

The Brewers collapse was 40th all time. The Mets was #2. BP looked at this:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6764

 

 

 

[homer]

And I wouldn't call it a collapse as much as it was the Cubs going insanely hot.

[fondybrewfan]

I would also agree that the Brewers collapse last year wasn't exactly historic. We wen't from 14 over in the middle of May to 2 games over at the end of the year. While it certainly sucked I would have to believe this kind of fade has happened many times over the course of history.

[brewerinvegas]

There's one reason the Astros are above .500: Lance Berkman.

[zzzmanwitz]

There's one reason the Astros are above .500: Lance Berkman.

Tejada's been pretty solid too.

[brewerinvegas]

Tejada stats are just slightly higher than his career averages (32 points higher in avg, 42 points higher in OPS). Berkman is just unreal. 77 points higher in avg, and incredible 230 points higher in OPS.

[zzzmanwitz]

That's why I said solid, not amazing.

[sheethead]

Need to win the next two... then all will be good until they get crushed in the finale. Of course I will be there for that debacle.

[hawing]

Well, there you go. 28-28 going into the games of June 1.

[valpocrewsader]

And I wouldn't call it a collapse as much as it was the Cubs going insanely hot.

I can't let this comment go with no response. You really feel that way? You'd say that our free-fall from excellence to a mediocre ~.500 team last year was not a collapse? And you really think the Cubs were insanely hot? Brewers were insanely hot for a month or so, Cubs were cold for a little longer than that, then the Brewers collapsed as the Cubs played good ball for a long (with some ups and downs) for a majority of the season. At least that's how I remember it.

[craigharmann]

Well, there you go. 28-28 going into the games of June 1.

Yep! I'm surprised. Happy, but surprised. With losing Yo and Cappy, and the inconsistent pitching that has been thrown out there, to be .500 on June 1st, is a huge accomplishment. Prince seems to be warming up, the pitching seems to be becoming more consistent and if they can more often than not win 2 out of 3 in a series (or all 3 once in a while), hope springs eternal for Brewer fans.

 

[dvoiss]

And I wouldn't call it a collapse as much as it was the Cubs going insanely hot.

I can't let this comment go with no response. You really feel that way? You'd say that our free-fall from excellence to a mediocre ~.500 team last year was not a collapse?

No it wasn't a collapse. The 69 Cubs, The 78 Red Sox, The 64 Phillies now those were collapses of epic proprotions. Last year the Brewrers just played way over their heads for the first 6 weeks. Everything went right for them. Check JJ's numbers through May of 07. Are they realistic? Of course not. In July and August the pitching went south and their record followed. It happens all the time. The Brewers simply were not good enough to keep up the early pace they set.

[dadofandrew]

Impressive prediction, that's for sure.

[bucks2281]

dvoiss wrote:

No it wasn't a collapse. The 69 Cubs, The 78 Red Sox, The 64 Phillies now those were collapses of epic proprotions. Last year the Brewrers just played way over their heads for the first 6 weeks. Everything went right for them. Check JJ's numbers through May of 07. Are they realistic? Of course not. In July and August the pitching went south and their record followed. It happens all the time. The Brewers simply were not good enough to keep up the early pace they set.

I'd call it a collapse. The Brewers were on top of the division until the end of July; when you have a stranglehold on the division for 3+ months, you should be expected to win it. They had an 86% chance of making the postseason after play on July 2. I know it's been mentioned before, but BP rates the Brewers "collapse" as the 40th biggest in history.

 

The Brewers were not good enough to keep up with the early pace, but with the lead they owned, they were more than capable of treading water and suppressing the Cubs for a couple of months.

[berniebrewer4life]

Ok, next question for the OP, what's your prediction for the next 2 weeks?