.500 by June 1st...all will be good

[endaround]

The Brewers have yet to lose at the new stadium in Washington, therefore the p=100 against the Nats right?

[JohnBriggs12]

.500 at June 1st means that all is good? By that time Cubs could easily be 15 games over .500.

 

It might mean they are one of 9 or 10 teams alive in WC, but where does that put them mathematically? Still not very good.

 

This team needs a prolonged period of playing well to have a playoff chance and 12 games isn't long enough unless they win 11 of the 12. Otherwise, they need a 50 game stretch where they go 32-18 or something similar.

[homer]

".500 at June 1st means that all is good? By that time Cubs could easily be 15 games over .500. "

 

 

What were the Brewer and Cub records last year on June 1?

 

With Gallardo out, we are kidding ourselves if we think we can hopskotch the rest of the division and make the playoffs.

[zzzmanwitz]

On May 19th, 2007

Milwaukee 26-17

Chicago 20-21 5.0 GB

 

On June 1st, 2007

Milwaukee 31-24

Chicago 22-30 7.5 GB

 

Other notable June 1st 2007 Records

Colorado 25-30 7.5 GB

Philly 26-28 8.5 GB

New York Yankees 23-29 12.5 GB

[rluzinski]

I don't think an 8-4 run would mean that everything is "all good" but it's a reasonable goal and you have to get to .500 to get over it, so first thing is first.

 

This is all rough and dirty but it's better than nothing. I started off by taking the averaged preseason projections from here:

 

http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/RLYW/comments/the_2008_diamond_mind_projection_blowout_pt_2

 

I took 3 wins off the Brewers projection for the Gallardo injury (85 wins down to 82) and 2 wins from Atlanta for the Smoltz injury. I don't think any other team involved had significant injuries but let me know if I'm wrong (it won't make much of a difference anyway). I then took the teams' current pythagorean record (projected record based on runs scored and given up) and regressed that 80% towards their preseseason projections. Some might think that I'm weighing the preseason projections too much but the opposite is probably true.

 

That gives us the "true talent" of each team, in teams of win%. Then, I pretty much copy this procedure:

 

http://www.diamond-mind.com/articles/playoff2002.htm

 

Log5 equation.... add 4% to the win probability for the home team. Run a monte carlo and there you go. I can SEE into the future! (OK, no I can't).

 

Anyway, here are the the Brewers calculated win probabilities against each team during this series:

 

Pit: 51.4%

Was: 52.4%

Atl: 49.2%

Hou: 55.9%

 

Weighted average for the series of 51.9% Way better than 50%! and the 12 game odds:

 

6+ wins: 67%

7+ wins: 44%

8+ wins: 23%

9+ wins: 9%

 

So, almost a 1 in 4 chance of being .500 by June 1st. YES!!! WOO HOOOO! There is hope!!!

 

God, it sucks to be a Brewer fan.

[TooLiveBrew]

On May 19th, 2007

Milwaukee 26-17

Chicago 20-21 5.0 GB

 

On June 1st, 2007

Milwaukee 31-24

Chicago 22-30 7.5 GB

 

So... wait -- two months of a season doesn't tell you everything?

[DrWood]

I stayed awake in bed last night until I calculated it out in my head, rounded to the nearest whole percent.

The way I'd calculate it would be to add up all the permutations of 12, 11, 10, 9, and 8 wins, and divide the sum by the number of all possible permutations. Thus=(1+12+66+220+495)/4096=19.385.

 

To calculate the number of permutations, for example 12 wins and 4 losses, = 12*11*10*9/(4*3*2*1)=495

[jhart05]

On May 19th, 2007

Milwaukee 26-17

Chicago 20-21 5.0 GB

 

On June 1st, 2007

Milwaukee 31-24

Chicago 22-30 7.5 GB

 

Other notable June 1st 2007 Records

Colorado 25-30 7.5 GB

Philly 26-28 8.5 GB

New York Yankees 23-29 12.5 GB

 

That's exactly what I've been telling myself and my ScRub fan boss.

[GenoSeligPrieb]

"I have said along that firing the manager is not the answer to the team's problems. Is firing Yost going to get Gagne pitching like a closer? Or Raise Weeks' OBP above .380? No. Thats ridiculous."

 

Of course firing Yost won't automatically fix Weeks, Bush, Suppan, Hall, Villanueva, Hardy, Parra and Gagne.

 

Hell, they probably LIKE the fact that they can fail night after night, and their supervisor publicly makes excuses for them. It's cozy and comfy playing in Ned's Moronic Dustbin. It's like being a 42-year-old Piggly Wiggly bagger who lives at home with his parents. There's no pressure to go out and look for a better job, or a wife, because your failures are mitigated and your undies are folded and placed in your bureau for you by your loving mom.

 

What was it that woke Weeks out of his sleepwalk last summer? A trip to Nashville. What would serve as the proverbial swift-kick-to-the-ass for Gagne this year? Removing him from his closer's role...for MORE than 2 damned games. That would seriously damage the future earnings potential of Gagne AND Scott Boras. Hall? He'll be platooning with Branyan until he hits and catches the ball.

 

If you don't want all these demotions, then firing Yost can send a similar message. It can serve as a jolt to the senses. Their protective smothering parental figure will be gone, and someone who's NOT a "player's manager" can come in and want to EARN an extension.

 

Why should Ned try extra hard to win the NL Central? He can screw the pooch in the 2005 season, and it was because "the team was inexperienced." He presided over a 2nd historic collapse last season, and what's the upshot? He quietly gets a contract extension! This year, with a much higher payroll, solid young talent, and big home crowds, and his laissez-faire attitude filtering down to everyone but Ryan Braun? He'll probably get a huge raise and a 3-year deal.

 

Settling for Yost's parade of losing sends the wrong message.

[iluvlamp]

The offense is going to come around but does anyone think that the pitching will? We have one good starting pitcher. One. We have a bad closer and a pretty suspect overall bullpen with Riske gone. Even then it is suspect. Moving V to the pen could help. So then we call up Weaver. Really? That guy. This starting rotation is a complete and utter disaster. We may be able to bang out some wins with offense but we are pretty much toast.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I will be willing to bet a lot of money that Jeff Weaver will be starting one of these games.

[rluzinski]

Alright, just need to go 7-4 over the next 11 games! Baby steps.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

What are the odds of that? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/tongue.gif

[rluzinski]

About 1 in 3.

[joepepsi]

It's cozy and comfy playing in Ned's Moronic Dustbin.

Wow, was that a reference to Ned's Atomic Dustbin, the great 90's band that did Kill You Television? That's sweet.

[bjkrautk]

What was it that woke Weeks out of his sleepwalk last summer? A trip to Nashville. What would serve as the proverbial swift-kick-to-the-ass for Gagne this year? Removing him from his closer's role...for MORE than 2 damned games. That would seriously damage the future earnings potential of Gagne AND Scott Boras. Hall? He'll be platooning with Branyan until he hits and catches the ball.

 

If you don't want all these demotions, then firing Yost can send a similar message. It can serve as a jolt to the senses. Their protective smothering parental figure will be gone, and someone who's NOT a "player's manager" can come in and want to EARN an extension.

Call me old-school, but where can I sign up for all those demotions? (or at least the Branyan promotion; not a 3TO guy, but I prefer walks homers and strikouts to just homers and K's.)

 

If 14-30 days of close proximity to the Grand Ol' Opry would bring back the good Rickie Weeks....then get Crabbe on the first Midwest Express flight to Pittsburgh. Unfortunately, I think Rickie's problems are in large part due to good old fashioned bad luck (.220 BABIP v. .312 over the previous 3 seasons), and the prospect of Counsell and Crabbe at 2b until he gets back doesn't excite me.

 

I still don't know what to make of Gagne, and we're nearly 2 months into the season.

[joepepsi]

Did you know Rickie has an .829 OPS against lefties this year? He's raised his batting average 10 points in the last 3 games. Just sayin.....

[dvoiss]

Why should Ned try extra hard to win the NL Central? He can screw the pooch in the 2005 season, and it was because "the team was inexperienced." He presided over a 2nd historic collapse last season, and what's the upshot? He quietly gets a contract extension! This year, with a much higher payroll, solid young talent, and big home crowds, and his laissez-faire attitude filtering down to everyone but Ryan Braun? He'll probably get a huge raise and a 3-year deal.

 

Settling for Yost's parade of losing sends the wrong message.

All the things you say are true. The point of my original post wasn't that he shouldn't be fired it was that firing the manager (of any team noy just this one) is not a panacea for a teams troubles. In fact I said in my post that Yost should go. It seems there are many on this board who feel that if DM fires Yost the Crew will go out and win 30 of their next 40 or something like that.

That is most likely not going to be the case.

 

There are those rare exceptions (the 82 Brewers) where firing the manager was all the team needed to turn it around. But for the most part when a team is struggling firing the manager is not the ENTIRE answer. It can be part of the solution but it rarely solves everything.

[rluzinski]

Screw .500 by June 1st. I want to be above .500 by the end of the road trip! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[logan82]

I still feel the only message firing a manager midseason sends is ''we give up, the season is over."

[BrewCityUnit]

6-4 doesn't sound too difficult to me. Was Sunday the low point for the Brewers in the last 200+ games?

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Screw .500 by June 1st. I want to be above .500 by the end of the road trip! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

Now you're getting greedy! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif Would that be 1 in 4 odds?

[rluzinski]

Now you're getting greedy! Would that be 1 in 4 odds?

 

Good guess. I get about 22%. But I agree. That's being too greedy. Bad karma. I'll stick with BCU's original ".500 by June 1st" goal. Now, about a 43% chance to finish May 6-4 and get to .500, according to my rough calculations. Still not the most likely outcome but certainly more reasonable, at least.

 

A win tonight and .500 by June would be the most likely outcome. With Bush pitching, the offense is probably going to need to score more than 4 runs to get the win tonight.

[zzzmanwitz]

I see it being better than a 22% chance. I would be willing to put a lot of money on taking tonights game and the Sheets start, then we just have to take 2 out of 3 from Suppan, McClung, and Parra. Here are the pitching matchups.

 

Bush (6.05) vs. Gorzelanny (6.64)

Suppan (4.78) vs. Perez (4.34)

McClung (3.54) vs. Lannan (3.40)

Parra (4.40) vs. Redding (3.16)

Sheets (2.92) vs. TBD (I'm assuming Bergman, 5.47)

[rluzinski]

I would be willing to put a lot of money on taking tonights game

 

Gorzelanny is close to a 4.0 ERA pitcher. Bush is maybe a 4.65 one. I'll give the Brewers offense the nod, especially against a LH pitcher but we shouldn't expect them to continue crushing LHers. The Pirates get the home field advantage, which adds 4% to their win probability on average.

 

Vegas thinks it's roughly even odds and I would agree with them. Generally speaking, Vegas knows what they are doing. If you think they are way off, though, you need to put some big cash down quick!