.500 by June 1st...all will be good

[BrewCityUnit]

4 games under .500 with 3 games against Pittsburgh, 4 games against Washington, 3 games against Atlanta and 2 games against Houston. That means we need to go 8-4 over the next 12 games. If we can right the ship and get to .500 by June 1st, I will feel much better about things. I am not ready to give up on this team. For the record, I do believe this team will make the playoffs this year, although Yost will never manage a team in the playoffs...so hopefully the decision is made tomorrow and we can move forward. Personally I think the best time to get rid of Yost should have been after the first game on the doubleheader yesterday.....

[crossface21]

That would have been pretty funny. A manager gets fired between games of a DH. 2 different managers in one day.

[rluzinski]

I bet Hall, Hardy, Weeks, Cameron, Fielder, Villy, Gagne and Bush can't wait for Yost to get fired, so they can start performing as expected.

[Brewer Fever]

I bet Hall, Hardy, Weeks, Cameron, Fielder, Villy, Gagne and Bush can't wait for Yost to get fired, so they can start performing as expected.

 

Why pretend that you never go a little over the top when it comes to Ned. Afterall, these were your words in a recent game thread...

 

"Ahh hell. I can't keep a straight face. There is absolutely no explanation whatsoever. Yost is insane."

 

I guess it's not an overreaction when you say it.

[rluzinski]

I think Yost is a bad manager and I've never tried to hide that fact. I just think it should be obvious to all those looking for a quick fix that Yost is the least of our worried right now. Instead, peole have become obsessed with him. Just a convenience thing, I guess.

[Brewer Fever]

I'm not looking for a quick fix. I think this season is pretty much lost. Gallardo's injury was a huge blow. But I do not think the day Ned Yost is relieved of his duties can come soon enough. The team needs to move on and get the ship headed in the right direction so that 2009 and beyond can be salvaged.

[BadgerFan]

I'll bet you a pair of tickets to an upcoming game that the Brewers are NOT .500 or better on June 1.

 

It would be great, but it's not gonna happen.

[DrWood]

They face 4 LH starters in the next 7 games. That should help.

[Bring Back the Stein]

Seven games back in the division, five games back in the wild card, with no real prospect of major improvement in the performance of the starting pitching and major holes in the lineup. At what point does the season become unrecoverable? I'm going to watch til the bitter end, but, as in other threads, there is a reckoning upcoming, for the fate of the manager, when it must be decided at what point it becomes no longer worth buying and the only wise thing to do is plan for next year.

 

So when is all lost?

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

8-4 isn't a rediculous possiblily. Anyone have the odds of this happening? Usually Rluz is good at that stuff. Anything, Rluz?

[DrWood]

8-4 isn't a rediculous possiblily. Anyone have the odds of this happening? Usually Rluz is good at that stuff. Anything, Rluz?

 

1 in 70 chance, if they are a .500 team.

[rluzinski]

Assuming a 50% of winning each game (way too late to estimate actual probabilities), there's a 19% chance of winning at least 8 of them.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Assuming a 50% of winning each game (way too late to estimate actual probabilities), there's a 19% chance of winning at least 8 of them.

That's better than 1 in 70! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif

[DrWood]

Assuming a 50% of winning each game (way too late to estimate actual probabilities), there's a 19% chance of winning at least 8 of them.

 

That's better than 1 in 70! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif

 

hmm, maybe I was calculating it where order mattered. 8*7*6*5/(4*3*2*1)

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

hmm, maybe I was calculating it where order mattered. 8*7*6*5/(4*3*2*1)

That would be a permutation. I remembered 6th grade math class!

[DrWood]

it's late. I'm sleepy. or stupid. take your pick.

[rluzinski]

n = 12, p = .5, x >= 8

 

19.38% chance:

 

http://www.stat.tamu.edu/~west/applets/binomialdemo.html

 

Winning 2 more games than expected over 12 games isn't all that hard. 1 in 70 is a 1.4% chance.

 

I'll take a closer look tomorrow and try to estimate the game--by-game win probabilities. Eyeballing it, it should be a little better than 50% on average (I hope). We all need some kind of goal that has a reasonable chance of occurring.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I'll take a closer look tomorrow and try to estimate the game--by-game win probabilities. Eyeballing it, it should be a little better than 50% on average (I hope). We all need some kind of goal that has a reasonable chance of occurring.

Thanks, Rluz, for taking a look. I appreciate it. Can we label Rluz as BF.Net's official "Statistical Engineer"?

[dvoiss]

I think Yost is a bad manager and I've never tried to hide that fact. I just think it should be obvious to all those looking for a quick fix that Yost is the least of our worried right now. Instead, peole have become obsessed with him. Just a convenience thing, I guess.

I agree completely. I have said along that firing the manager is not the answer to the team's problems. Is firing Yost going to get Gagne pitching like a closer? Or Raise Weeks' OBP above .380? No. Thats ridiculous. I do think it would help the team if Yost went (depending, of course, on who replaced him) but not as much as fixing some of the other problems this team has. I've said this before, Yost does not hit or pitch or play the field and right now these are the team's major worries. It's not about bullpen management right now it is about poor play.

[WV Brew]

The fatal flaw in this argument is that p=.5. That is wishful thinking, I'm afraid.

[Brian the Automator]

Assuming a 50% of winning each game (way too late to estimate actual probabilities), there's a 19% chance of winning at least 8 of them.

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[jeffy]

I bet Hall, Hardy, Weeks, Cameron, Fielder, Villy, Gagne and Bush can't wait for Yost to get fired, so they can start performing as expected.

 

So should they keep Yost and fire Hall, Hardy, Weeks, Cameron, Fielder, Villy, Gagne and Bush?

[LUKE232323]

4 games under is already a long ways back, and we still have seven consecutive road games before we finally start getting a favorable schedule. .500 by June 1? I will take that wager.

[MBHA]

Being a realist, the Brewers have historically performed poorly at PNC and have not done well in Washington in the short time they have played there. They also have not done well against Atlanta even in Milwaukee, and Houston swept them already this year. I see no reasons supporting .500 on June 1.

 

It is going to be awfully hard to stomach the Cubs and their fans celebrating on the field at Miller Park in September.

[rluzinski]

The fatal flaw in this argument is that p=.5. That is wishful thinking, I'm afraid.

 

I think that's a pretty reasonable figure, based off the preseason expectations for each of the teams involved and taking into account their performance in the 2008 season so far (ignoring protential pitching matchups). What we are looking for is an estimate of a team's true collective talent. We can then compare the talent of each team, adjust for home field advantage and get a reasonable estimate for a series of games (for one game, the pitching matchups can have a huge effect on the probabilities).

 

If you start talking about the Brewers not playing well at particular parks, or how the Brewers have done against a particular team in 3 games, you are going down the wrong path. That's the kind of splits that fans and gamblers get hung up on but the odds makers know to largely ignore.