The Owen Murphy Thread

[ESPNOwen]

If you've never heard Owen's show, imagine Ray Romano's voice coming through your radio.

I hate you.

 

But it's true.

 

Even my wife thinks I sound like Ray Ramano. I look like Bob Mould and sound like Ray Ramano.

Actually I don't think you sound like Ray Romano at all. I was thinking you sound more like Manfred the wooly mammath. For now on I'm referring to you as Manfred.

 

 

I think we can all agree that I sound like a moron.

[Fatter than Joey]

you sound like Pauly Shore looks

[nate82]

My new, stupid Brewers line up idea:

1 - Corey Hart: Gets on base more than Weeks and can knock Kendall in more.

2 - Ryan Braun: Gets more at bats per season and can also knock Kendall and Hart in.

3 - Prince Fielder: More at bats, etc.

4 - Mike Cameron: Not ideal, but he generally has around 65-70 extra base hits per year

5 - Bill Hall...platoon with Branyan?: Ugh, what a hole of awfulness...

6 - JJ Hardy: See ball, miss ball.

7 - Rickie Weeks: He walks a lot...and probably won't see a lot of decent pitches.

8 - Underperforming pitcher: Will he be better than Weeks?

9 - Jason Kendall: Maybe he'll score more runs hitting in front of Hart and Braun.

Bad lineup.

Taking Hart out of the 5th spot and you lose a lot of production no matter who you put in there unless it is Prince or Braun but then you are losing production at the #3 and 4 spot in the lineup. The lineup is fine the way it is right now. If you take Weeks out of the lead off spot and put Hart there you are losing a lot of production.

The lineup the way it is is the best that the Brewers can put out night after night. Since you said it is stupid I am going to have to agree with that point in the lineup you made is stupid.

[GAME05]

My new, stupid Brewers line up idea:

1 - Corey Hart: Gets on base more than Weeks and can knock Kendall in more.

2 - Ryan Braun: Gets more at bats per season and can also knock Kendall and Hart in.

3 - Prince Fielder: More at bats, etc.

4 - Mike Cameron: Not ideal, but he generally has around 65-70 extra base hits per year

5 - Bill Hall...platoon with Branyan?: Ugh, what a hole of awfulness...

6 - JJ Hardy: See ball, miss ball.

7 - Rickie Weeks: He walks a lot...and probably won't see a lot of decent pitches.

8 - Underperforming pitcher: Will he be better than Weeks?

9 - Jason Kendall: Maybe he'll score more runs hitting in front of Hart and Braun.

maybe this is a Designated Lineup Thread thing, though. but Cameron's OBP and SLG are awfully low to what a 4-hitter should be, i think he'd turn into Rally Killer in that spot in the lineup. plus i think the point of Kendall-Weeks-Cameron right now isn't so much that the 1 and 2 would be driving kendall in, but that the 9-1-2 would have the highest OBPs on the team so that someone's on base for Braun and Fielder, to help solve the problem we had last year of far too many solo HRs.

 

i like the way Ned's handled the lineup this year, moving guys around here and there, but also not to an extreme degree, just moving guys up or down one slot in the order.

[ESPNOwen]

My new, stupid Brewers line up idea:

1 - Corey Hart: Gets on base more than Weeks and can knock Kendall in more.

2 - Ryan Braun: Gets more at bats per season and can also knock Kendall and Hart in.

3 - Prince Fielder: More at bats, etc.

4 - Mike Cameron: Not ideal, but he generally has around 65-70 extra base hits per year

5 - Bill Hall...platoon with Branyan?: Ugh, what a hole of awfulness...

6 - JJ Hardy: See ball, miss ball.

7 - Rickie Weeks: He walks a lot...and probably won't see a lot of decent pitches.

8 - Underperforming pitcher: Will he be better than Weeks?

9 - Jason Kendall: Maybe he'll score more runs hitting in front of Hart and Braun.

Bad lineup.

Taking Hart out of the 5th spot and you lose a lot of production no matter who you put in there unless it is Prince or Braun but then you are losing production at the #3 and 4 spot in the lineup. The lineup is fine the way it is right now. If you take Weeks out of the lead off spot and put Hart there you are losing a lot of production.

The lineup the way it is is the best that the Brewers can put out night after night. Since you said it is stupid I am going to have to agree with that point in the lineup you made is stupid.

 

It seems to me that your argument for losing production in the 5th slot is flawed as all I have done is moved it to a place (1st) in which I think it will be maximized. He'll probably have as many chances to knock in runs, as Kendall gets on base at a comparable level to Prince, AND is faster, AND Hart will present more chances to score than Weeks. Plus, now Prince and Braun will get more at bats, again increasing production. So forgive me, but my idea may be flawed, but it's hardly stupid.

In the end, most Brewer line ups are flawed as most of the team is underperforming.

[mletto157]

My Favorite Linup (still) Would Be:

1. Weeks

2. Braun / Prince

3. Hardy / Cameron

4. Prince / Braun

5. Hart

6. Hall

7. Cameron / Hardy

8. Pitcher

9. Kendall

 

Out of 1-5, 3 should NOT be your best hitter... but actually, your worst.

1 = Best OBP, 2 = Best Contact/Good OBP, 4 Best SLG.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

Out of 1-5, 3 should NOT be your best hitter... but actually, your worst.

 

Thought I'd add a brief note here to explain why this is true. Those of us nerdy enough to have read the studies that produced this finding tend to just state it as fact, and everybody not-nearly-nerdy-enough to have read them just shrugs. We're up against 100 years of conventional baseball wisdom on this, so...

 

The problem with the 3 spot in the lineup is that, owing entirely to the 1st inning, it comes up with 2 outs and nobody on significantly more than any other spot in the order. And when there's 2 outs and nobody on, it really doesn't matter what you do (short of a solo homer, which might as well come leading off the next inning), your team is probably not going to score any runs. With 2 outs, getting a runner on first only bumps the run expectancy from 0.1 to 0.2. Hit a double, and you've only managed to get it to 0.35. By way of contrast, the cleanup hitter leads off more innings than anybody outside of the leadoff hitter (again, owing entirely to the 1st inning going 1-2-3). With 0 outs, getting a runner on first increases run expectancy from 0.5 to 0.9. Hit a double, and you're looking at 1.14 runs on average. These are much larger swings, indicating the result of that AB is much more important.

 

Managers have been putting the team's best hitter 3rd all this time because they believe that the 3 hitter gets the most ABs in important RBI situations. Those who've crunched the numbers have found that this really isn't the case. What he does get is slightly more almost totally inconsequential ABs than the guys hitting 2nd, 4th, and 5th, with approximately the same number of high leverage, RISP-type situations.

 

Your two best hitters should therefore hit 2nd and 4th. But this has such a small marginal effect on the amount of runs you're likely to score that it's probably not worth the trouble of convincing Prince Fielder or Ryan Braun that he shouldn't be insulted by being asked to hit in a spot in the order he probably views as reserved for slap-hitting middle infielders. That's why I almost never participate in lineup threads.

[logan82]

You forgot to mention that the leadoff hitter gets the most AB with nobody on so a HBP, BB and single have about the same value for a leaoff hitter. A guy who gets on at a good clip and has a high OBP/BA split is ideal for the leadoff spot.

[nate82]

It seems to me that your argument for losing production in the 5th slot is flawed as all I have done is moved it to a place (1st) in which I think it will be maximized. He'll probably have as many chances to knock in runs, as Kendall gets on base at a comparable level to Prince, AND is faster, AND Hart will present more chances to score than Weeks. Plus, now Prince and Braun will get more at bats, again increasing production. So forgive me, but my idea may be flawed, but it's hardly stupid.

In the end, most Brewer line ups are flawed as most of the team is underperforming.

Why would you want to lose this production at the 5th spot?

By Situation	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Lead Off Inning	37	0	11	2	0	1	1	3	0	5	0	0	.297	.350	.432	.782
None On/Out	44	1	13	2	0	1	1	3	0	7	0	0	.295	.340	.409	.749
None On, 1/2 out	60	3	18	4	0	3	3	5	0	14	0	0	.300	.354	.517	.871
Close and Late	27	2	5	1	1	0	3	2	0	7	1	0	.185	.241	.296	.537
None On	104	4	31	6	0	4	4	8	0	21	0	0	.298	.348	.471	.819
Runners On	70	19	22	4	2	0	19	4	3	9	8	3	.314	.372	.429	.801
Scoring Position	41	15	15	3	2	0	18	4	3	4	3	1	.366	.449	.537	.986
Scoring Posn, 2 out	18	5	5	1	0	0	7	3	1	1	1	0	.278	.409	.333	.742

 

Hart has the 2nd most AB's with runners on just behind Braun. Moving players down and up in the lineup like this will be making you rely on the bottom half of the lineup to get on base. Now you switched it from the top of the order getting on base to relying on your bottom half getting on base. You have the same problem you had before.

 

Rickie only leads off an inning ~38% of the time. Corey leads off an inning ~22% of the time you really want to lose the production you are getting from Hart with runners on at the spot he is batting at now just for him to lead off more? If you want run production and you want to put in your best run producer according with this lineup you want him batting 3rd in the lineup. Right now Braun leads all Brewers in total AB's batting him 2nd will get him less AB's. Braun has 18 more AB's than Weeks. Hart is only 4 AB's behind Weeks both have played the same amount of games. Moving Hart up in the order is only going to give him 4 more AB's. Are 4 more AB's really going to help that much? Hart is maximized at the 5th spot.

[ESPNOwen]

Wow, great stuff.

[logan82]

nate82 wrote:

Braun leads all Brewers in total AB's batting him 2nd will get him less AB's.

You should be looking at Plate Appearances not At Bats. Braun has the most at bats because he doesn't walk. You never lose plate appearances or at bats moving a guy up the order.

[nate82]

You should be looking at Plate Appearances not At Bats. Braun has the most at bats because he doesn't walk. You never lose plate appearances or at bats moving a guy up the order.

Braun has the 2nd most plate appearances on the team behind Weeks with Fielder and Hart behind Braun. Plus I was arguing against Owen about him putting Braun at the 2nd spot in the lineup and part of his reasoning was that Braun would get more AB's.

 

[logan82]

nate82 wrote:

Braun has the 2nd most plate appearances on the team behind Weeks with Fielder and Hart behind Braun. Plus I was arguing against Owen about him putting Braun at the 2nd spot in the lineup and part of his reasoning was that Braun would get more AB's.

It would. The PA at this point in the season probably has more to do with playing time. Moving a guy up the order will never lessen his PA. The 2nd spot in the order probably should go to Fielder or Braun, but that was covered in the designated lineup thread a couple months back and probably belongs more in that thread than here.

 

PA by spot in the batting order

#1 - 221

#2 - 215

#3 - 212

#4 - 210

#5 - 205

#6 - 201

#7 - 198

#8 - 194

#9 - 186

[ESPNOwen]

ESPN's Keith Law on our program today

 

http://a1135.g.akamai.net/f/1135/18227/1h/cchannel.download.akamai.com/18227/podcast/MADISON-WI/WTSO-AM/05-27-Keith%20Law.mp3?CPROG=PCAST&MARKET=MADISON-WI&NG_FORMAT=sports&SITE_ID=1276&STATION_ID=WTSO-AM&PCAST_AUTHOR=WTSO&PCAST_CAT=Sports&PCAST_TITLE=The_Heller_and_Murphy_Show

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

Thanks for the link Owen. Caught the end of that conversation in my car, got home, and just listened to the rest. Keith Law is one of my favorite nerds. Or did he stop being a nerd when an MLB team hired him? He does still seem to know an awful lot about statistics and uses economics terminology like "sunk cost" (Gagne) in conversation, though.

 

Anywhoo, enjoyed it. You should try to get that huge nerd Neyer on some time if you can.

[ttsather]

Figured I'd bump this to let people know that Owen Murphy will be leaving The Big 1070 (formerly ESPN1070) in Madison for a station in Seattle.

 

Good news for some. Bad news for others.

 

I give Owen a lot of credit for mixing it up with us on BF.net

[hawing]

It had occurred to me that Owen might at least have had to change his screen name (upon the parting of ESPN and 1070).

If you're still reading, Owen, good luck to you.

[ESPNOwen]

I have been summoned...who dares wake the anti-smart?

[diener34]

Owen is following Jack Z and Russell the Muscle, huh?

[burniebrewer]

So, if Owen is leaving, that means there's a slot open. Heller and Burnie--it has a certain ring to it, plus bringing me around won't be threatening to Heller because he's a better golfer than me and has nicer hair.

[davego]

...so Braun 2 and Prince 4 with Rickie #3...?

[ttsather]

...so Braun 2 and Prince 4 with Rickie #3...?

Looking back, this thread did generate some good discussion for someone (like me) who was fairly new to the statistical science behind lineup creation.

 

Sometimes, its good to have somebody to play the dummy. Thanks, Owen.

[logan82]

...so Braun 2 and Prince 4 with Rickie #3...?

Hardy would leadoff then.