Why not Houston?

[TooLiveBrew]

Yeah, that's arguably been the most overlooked SP -- Pos. Player combo over the past 5 seasons. Those two are awesome. A buddy of mine a few years back coined (at least, amongst our circle) the forever-etched in my memory banks nickname: "Fatty Berks"

 

He hated Berkman, but it was because he's so good, & looks like he just got off the buffet line. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[joepepsi]

Well two things good teams have to do is beat up on weaker teams and win at home. The Cubs schedule may have been more favorable this Spring, but to their credit they've come through winning the games they should. Sweeping Arizona is also particularly impressive. They are playing as well as any team in baseball. Given the way the Brewers have been playing, I'm not sure they'd have the Cubs' record if they were playing that schedule.

 

Yet the Brewers have taken 4 of 6 from the Cubs all on the road. So, I think the Brewers have at least shown they can compete with the Cubs. The Cubs are going to hit a rough stretch at some point this season. They actually just went through a stretch where the went 4-8 over 12 games. before this recent 4 game winning streak. The Cubs have had winning streaks of 4,5, and 6 games this year already. So, they are a streaky team and that could catch up with them over a long season. Not saying it will but to at like the Cubs have been consistent isnt true. They have been all over the place.

 

At the risk of sounding wishy washy, let me say I agree with you! It's somewhat remarkable the Brewers are .500 playing the schedule they have, and given the rotation and offense has not been up to even league average. Since last summer I've felt the Brewers were the better team, but they have yet to show it. The Cubs are still the team to beat until the Crew or some other team proves different. We all know Braun and Fielder are capable of carrying this team through a 10 game win streak, or something like a 15 out 20 run. Unfortunately it hasn't happened yet this year. Then again, maybe Braun is starting something magical this week.

 

[rluzinski]

Zambrano overproducing? Did you ever think that maybe he finally got IT? His strikeouts are way down as well as his walks and his ERA.

 

You think he's strikeouts being down is a good thing? First of all, lowering your K rate does not lower your pitch count. Tango's pitch count estimator:

 

Total Pitches =3.3 x (3 x IP + H + BB) + 1.5 SO + 2.2 BB

 

A K takes about an extra 1.5 pitches than a BIP out does, but a BIP results in a hit about 30% more often than a strikeout does. It's a wash:

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-kazmir-conundrum/

 

If his pitch average pitch count is lower, it's because his walks are way down. I'd be willing to bet that Zabrano's walk rate, HR rate and ERA are all going to raise before the year is done. Probably his K rate as well. His nice start might be a signal that he's returning to his 2002-2005 form but even then, we might be talking about a 3.6 ERA pitcher, going forward. That's excellent, obviously but he isn't a true sub 3.0 ERA pitcher. No starter in the league is.

 

And let's not act like the Cubs having a couple winning streaks this season suggests that they might have as losing streak coming up soon. All that matters is the win TOTAL after 162 games. It also doesn't matter that the Cubs have done against the Brewers in 6 lousy games.

[StatPipes]

Well almost every rotation lacks depth, that is why every year each playoff team has players that played over their head or had career years to get them there. I am not saying the Astros are the favorite, but in this division it isn't all that far-fetched.

 

And as I asked on the other topic, if you could you take Berkmans career numbers and yearly output would you, or would you reject those for the potential that Prince obviously brings? Just a little hypothetical for ya.

 

Oh, and Fatty Berks is good, but I am a fan of Big Puma, moreso than Fat Elvis...

[TooLiveBrew]

And as I asked on the other topic, if you could you take Berkmans career numbers and yearly output would you, or would you reject those for the potential that Prince obviously brings? Just a little hypothetical for ya.

 

Prince. Fielder. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

I'd not heard "Big Puma"... I don't really get it, therefore it's making me laugh, therefore I kinda like it.

[Ennder]

Zambrano has certainly overproduced, his ERA should be in the mid 3s and not 2.03. I'd be worried about him as well though, he has a history of spiking his BBs and if he is striking out so few and his control goes for a few games he will be pretty bad.

[StatPipes]

Ha, yeah it has a ring to it, that is what he is called around the Houston area

[danzig6767]

I personally would be worried about a guy as K-reliant as Zambrano having his K rates go down. The BB decrease is nice, but only time will tell in both cases, of course. ERA is a team stat, and is terrible to try to apply as a gauge of talent, especially over only a handful of IP.

I don't watch him pitch much, but i do know that Zambrano has a very good sinker. I wonder if he might be throwing it more and getting ground outs instead of him going for strikeouts?

 

[Gopher74]

If the Cubs dont' win the division they choked pretty much. As soon as Gallardo went down they had the upper hand over everyone.

 

Doesn't mean another team can't get hot and take the division but it is the Cubs to lose barring an injury.

My feelings exactly. There's a certain added frustration to all the "told you so's"(not from here in particular) regarding the Brewers pitching which went from very good to very poor with one awkward landing by our most important player in the organization. With Sheeter and Yo heading the rotation Bush, Parra and Villy can figure it out and work through it on their own. With him out, you're hopes now lie upon those three developing or turning it around very quickly and getting about 500 IP out of those three at at least league average levels. That's a tall order.

 

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

A K takes about an extra 1.5 pitches than a BIP out does, but a BIP results in a hit about 30% more often than a strikeout does. It's a wash:

Lol. Does a Strikeout ever result in a hit? That's pretty interesting though. I would think pitching to contact would have the potential for less pitches. I guess I have to stop listening to Bill Schroeder.

 

Another thing to mention about the Astros is that Michael Bourn will is hitting .200 right now and leading the league in steals. That average can only increase which means even more steals for the speedster. Are we talking 80 steals here? Berkman and Tejada have to be licking their chops for those RBI opportunities.

[Phenomenal Smith]

Yeah, that's arguably been the most overlooked SP -- Pos. Player combo over the past 5 seasons. Those two are awesome. A buddy of mine a few years back coined (at least, amongst our circle) the forever-etched in my memory banks nickname: "Fatty Berks"

 

He hated Berkman, but it was because he's so good, & looks like he just got off the buffet line. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

I don't undertsand why anyone would hate Berkman, unless it's just because he's very good. He's funny, self-effacing, and more than a tad goofy. What's not to like?

[cubfan1126]

Smith,

 

That's easy. Not enough publicity. Outside of Houston, nobody knows anything about him. I never knew he was funny. Funny how?

[TooLiveBrew]

Like a clown?

[StatPipes]

Berkman is hilarious, and he is even keeled as well. He knows it is a long season and doesn't get distraught when he or the team is going bad or too happy vice/versa.

Supposedly his first few years in the bigs he drove his old beat-up F-150(maybe even an F-100) to the park everyday, even when the A/C went out(not sure this is 100% true)

He is just a goofy guy that happens to be a stud baseball player, but doesn't show it. Roy Oswalt said it best yesterday, If Lance was playing in New York or Boston, he would be the next president.

He does speak the truth, almost too much, and was not happy about the offseason moves at first, harping on Valverde's antics and just the fact he had lost a lot of friends he had played with for years). But he also reached out to the new players(as well as Valverde) after he settled down and now seems to get along great with them.

 

I still can't agree with the thought of Prince over Berkman, but everyone has their reasons.

[DrWood]

bourne's average might not rise much. he's not that good, beyond his speed.

[Phenomenal Smith]

Berkman's a bit of a clown. But he's also a clever guy with quips and one-liners. Although he can be pretty opnionated, he doesn't take himself too seriously. He's really like the guy next door if the guy next door could knock the crap out of a baseball.

 

As for Prince vs. Berkman, Prince is younger.

[joepepsi]

So Berkman is like Kevin Millar, except he can actually play?

[StatPipes]

I had asked if you could take Berkmans yearly career numbers, or throw them away for the potential that Prince might bring. I realize there is an age difference, I know if you had to have one for the long haul here on out, it probably would be Prince.

 

Most said that they would reject Berkmans numbers, all I said was I wouldn't be sure about that. Both are outstanding players I know. I just think Berkman brings more to the table is all.

[TooLiveBrew]

Yes, we disagree. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[StatPipes]

Yes we do, but that is cool...It isn't like I would kick Prince off my team or anything

[Phenomenal Smith]

So Berkman is like Kevin Millar, except he can actually play?

Yep, that sounds about right. When Sean Casey was still with the Reds, it was hilarious when Berkman would reach first. The TV cameras would get some great footage of their gabfests at first base.

[joepepsi]

I've always like Berkman. Early on in their careers I was hopeful Jenkins would be as good as Berkman. For a brief moment there, around 2000, their numbers had similarities if you squinted at the paper and tilted your head sideways. Kind of like U2 and Simple Minds when they first came out...

 

Anyway, I don't begrudge players on other teams just because they are really good. I tend to admire their level of play. Except for Derek Jeter that is. And Roger Clemens.

[TooLiveBrew]

Want to point out that I heard my very first "Big Puma" just now on the FSN-Hou. broadcast of the 'Stros-Cubs game tonight. Very nice.

[StatPipes]

Unfortunately, the Puma has struck out 3 times tonight. On the other hand he stole his 9th base, tying his career high...I guess he is not taking the nickname lightly.

[rluzinski]

Astros, pre and post May 13 (when this thread started):

 

Pre: 22 - 17 (192 RS, 169 RA)

Post: 11 - 20 (119 RS, 176 RA)

 

A complete collapse. What happened?

 

Berkman started hitting a lot closer to his career norms (although still very good):

 

Pre: .393 /.470 /.800/1.270

Post: .318/.414/.582/.996

 

Lee continues to be mediocre:

 

Pre: .276 /.327/.503/.830

Post: .270/.306/.504/.810

 

Tejada remembered that he's really not very good anymore:

 

Pre: .340/.375/.532/.907

Post: .248/.278/.405/.683

 

Some of their starters are to blame as well:

 

Chacon 3.53 ERA / 6.67 ERA

Backe: 4.64 / 5.45

Moeller: 4.26 / 4.96

 

They just don't have the talent.