Time to start looking at Melvin?

[THEbrewguru]

If you strive for mediocrity, that's what you'll end up with.

[twobrewers]

St. Louis won the World Series in 2006 after winning 83 games.

 

Would that be acceptable?

Who cares if Sexson was going to leave in free agency? You still have a 45-homer, 120 RBI, top 5 first baseman in MLB and traded him for nothing.

Seattle would give him to us for free if we wanted to take on his contract. And if you don't care that he was about to leave in free agency...well, I guess I can't help you understand.

The Brewers received "many" starters, but how proud are you that Chad Moeller started? Or Junior Spivey? Ohka was a below average pitcher. Capuano was an all-star?

No, but the other options were worst. Someone had to play while we waited for Prince, Weeks and Hart to mature in the minor leagues.

 

Melvin got lucky with Cordero because in Texas, he was what Derrick Turnbow is to Milwaukee. Hated. Reviled. Demoted from closer. But he found it again with the Brewers.

Thank goodness for scouts.

 

I could care less about draft picks because they won't help the Brewers this year or next. And the way Jack Z. drafts after the first round, I don't expect much help anyway.

Glad you are not running the team. Gallardo was a second round pick. (Cordero got us a sandwich pick, which is higher than the second round AND a second round pick) Hart was drafted in the 11 round. Gamel was a 4th round pick. Eveland (Who you seem fond of) was a 16th round pick. Hardy was a 2nd round pick.

 

How was Doug Davis going to leave in free agency?

Because he had one year left on his deal. He signed an extension with Arizona for 3 years at $7 million a year. (I believe)

 

Do you follow this team?

Apparently more than others.

[THEbrewguru]

I would win 40 games next year if that meant the Brewers won the World Series this year. Yes, St. Louis' season in '06 is acceptable.

 

Your Sexson example is what's wrong with your argument. I'm not talking about the Richie Sexson of 2008. I'm talking about the Richie Sexson of 2003. You know, the 45 homer, 124 RBI, .272/.379/.548 player. The one who you think was nothing.

 

So, with your Cordero acceptance, do you actually think we could trade Derrick Turnbow as part of a package for a stud hitter? OK.

 

You mentioned 5 Jack Z picks taken after Round 1. In 8 years. And Mat Gamel is still in AA and looks to be a DH somewhere. Good job, Jack.

 

Finally, as for Davis, if the Brewers can't afford $7 million/year for a #3 starter, they should get out of the baseball business.

[THEbrewguru]

And don't get me wrong, Jack Z is light years ahead of what was before him.

 

But there are 3 things wrong with his drafts.

 

1) He doesn't draft well after Round 1.

2) He can't draft pitching.

3) He likes DH's for the National League team. (Fielder, Weeks, Braun, Gamel, LaPorta, even Hart had to be moved to multiple positions).

[TooLiveBrew]

You mentioned 5 Jack Z picks taken after Round 1. In 8 years. And Mat Gamel is still in AA and looks to be a DH somewhere. Good job, Jack.

 

Are you just looking to pick fights? I think twobrewers's point on the draft picks was very good. I think you should look around the league at success rates of draft picks.

 

 

Finally, as for Davis, if the Brewers can't afford $7 million/year for a #3 starter, they should get out of the baseball business

 

Davis is most certainly not a #3. He was made to look much better by Arizona's strong IF defense... and much worse by Milwaukee's weak IF defense.

 

 

1) He doesn't draft well after Round 1.

 

That's so wrong. You were just provided ample evidence to the contrary, which you snarkily laughed off, and then re-posted the same nonsense.

[twobrewers]

Your Sexson example is what's wrong with your argument. I'm not talking about the Richie Sexson of 2008. I'm talking about the Richie Sexson of 2003. You know, the 45 homer, 124 RBI, .272/.379/.548 player. The one who you think was nothing.

So what would you have done with Sexson? We could have kept him for one year - and still not made the playoffs. If we signed him to a long-term deal (which seems to be to your preferance) then the 2008 version of Sexson would be very relevant. I don't want that on our team.

 

So, with your Cordero acceptance, do you actually think we could trade Derrick Turnbow as part of a package for a stud hitter? OK.

Similar with Sexson - that is what scouts are for. Melvin and his team knew Cordero never really "lost it" and where able to buy low on him from Texas. I have no idea what Turnbow has to do with Cordero.

 

Finally, as for Davis, if the Brewers can't afford $7 million/year for a #3 starter, they should get out of the baseball business.

Actually, they can afford even more. See Suppan; Jeff

 

2) He can't draft pitching.

3) He likes DH's for the National League team. (Fielder, Weeks, Braun, Gamel, LaPorta, even Hart had to be moved to multiple positions).

No one drafts pitching very well. Jack Z did draft Gallardo.

 

I actually agree to some extent about the DH comment. Jack Z certainly favors bats over defense. But he does such an amazing job at recognizing those players that he should continue to draft based on his own strengths.

 

I would win 40 games next year if that meant the Brewers won the World Series this year. Yes, St. Louis' season in '06 is acceptable.

Lastly, you are taking my point way to literal. The Brewers obviously aren't going to win 85 games every year. But if you put yourself in a position to win 85 games every year - sometimes things break your way. (Obviously, with Gallardo going down with a knee injury this has not been one of those years)

 

If you play to win 90+ games one year at the expense of winning 60 games for the next three years...what happens when your ace injuries his knee in the 90+ win season? That season would still be ruined - and you would have to live through misery for the next three years.

[Baldkin]

even Hart had to be moved to multiple positions

Hart was moved to try to find a spot for him to play in MLB. It wasn't because he couldn't play defense (okay, well, he couldn't play 3b at all... but still - he came up as a 1B, played great defense there, by all accounts but Prince wasn't getting moved anywhere). The only move I was completely baffled with was when they moved a good fielding IF (Hall) to the OF, instead of one of the two infield butchers (Weeks/Braun).

 

You can't continue to look at trades and say the 'crew traded Sexson for nothing without accounting for the facts that they weren't keeping him and his career has spiraled downwards since he left Milwaukee.

[jeffy]

The only move I was completely baffled with was when they moved a good fielding IF (Hall) to the OF, instead of one of the two infield butchers (Weeks/Braun).

Yes, that was an odd decision...I wonder how things might have gone last year with Hall on the infield and Weeks or Braun in the outfield.

 

Since I don't follow the minors or spring training, I really knew nothing of Braun until he came up, when I raised the question on here as to why the team wanted Bill Hall in CF and whatever stop-gap they were using at 3rd, everyone said because this great player, was to be brought up soon and play 3rd. No one said it was because the team is nuts, they should have put Hall at 3rd or 2nd and had Weeks or Braun learn the outfield.

[logan82]

To be honest, I have never been impressed with Hall as an infielder. Right now we are trying to play defense with a catcher, an infielder, 5 outfielders and a DH.

[jeffy]

Right now we are trying to play defense with a catcher, an infielder, 5 outfielders and a DH.

 

Now that's funny http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif. But, I think Hall is a better infielder than outfielder and a better infielder than Braun or Weeks...so I'd say we have a defense consisting of: a catcher, 2 infielders, 4 outfielders and a DH.

[Fatter than Joey]

Some of this, I don't hang on Jack Z. When Weeks was drafted, scouts everywhere said this was a player who should be moved to the outfield, which was also true of Braun.

 

This is a great point Splitter, and something that has been sticking in my craw lately.

 

I think the biggest mistake that Melvin made in his tenure was not putting Weeks/Braun in the OF right away in the minors. As Splitter points out, the overwhelming consensus was that Weeks and especially Braun would not have the chops to play the IF at the major league level. I think DM succumbed to the temptation of getting Braun and Weeks's projected numbers at 3rd/2nd would give him sick results at those positions.

 

Braun playing 3rd was an abomination, and Weeks continues to plateau at below-average to poor at 2b. If Weeks and especially Braun would have been in the OF last year, I have to think our D would have probably cost us less games and perhaps the Brewers would have clinched a playoff berth in 2007.

 

No one said it was because the team is nuts, they should have put Hall at 3rd or 2nd and had Weeks or Braun learn the outfield.

 

False. A ton of people here knew that Braun was a hack at 3b, the problem was, he didn't get any OF time in the minors, so playing him in the OF really was not an option. Koskie getting hurt sped up Braun's arrival as well. >

[TooLiveBrew]

I think the biggest mistake that Melvin made in his tenure was not putting Weeks/Braun in the OF right away in the minors. As Splitter points out, the overwhelming consensus was that Weeks and especially Braun would not have the chops to play the IF at the major league level. I think DM succumbed to the temptation of getting Braun and Weeks's projected numbers at 3rd/2nd would give him sick results at those positions

 

Right-on. I certainly can't blame DM & Co. for trying and/or being tempted on this front. However, I wish the analysis had been a bit more critical. Weeks at 2B isn't nearly as bad as Braun at 3B, but I think it's becoming abundantly clear that Rickie's ceiling defensively is probably avg. to below-avg.

[Postseason2006]

Problem is Braun has never played 3rd his whole career in college where as RicK has been a hack in college and not moved.

 

Jack Z is what stirs the stick for the Brewers when it comes to it's farm system and scouting. Melvin is the hack that decided not to call up a LH bat for the Boston series with a DH needed or moved Prince there. He decided to visit Nashville to "scout" to see if he could improve the team. I don't think it would've take too much to have called up Nelson to play first for Prince in Boston since the 3 starters that were RH pitchers were named in advance.

 

The Melvinites can keep making excuses for Doug but when do they run out after the Brewers miss the playoffs again this year?

[twobrewers]

The Melvinites can keep making excuses for Doug but when do they run out after the Brewers miss the playoffs again this year?

I would think Gallardo being lost for the year is a pretty legitimate excuse.

 

(You can argue all you want about the defense of Braun and Weeks. Those are valid points. But going into the season, I don't think many would have picked the Brewers for the playoffs had Gallardo not been a part of the rotation)

[THEbrewguru]

You can't continue to look at trades and say the 'crew traded Sexson for nothing without accounting for the facts that they weren't keeping him and his career has spiraled downwards since he left Milwaukee.

 

Actually, the fact his career has spiraled downwards since leaving Milwaukee is completely irrelevant.

 

I know that Sexson was one year from free agency. I know that he wasn't signing in Milwaukee. And I also know that the Brewers didn't want to sign him because Prince was already in the system.

 

However, I still feel they didn't get sufficient value for him.

 

Let me ask you this, if Prince was one year from free agency, would you consider a career backup catcher, 2 mediocre infielders, a minor league pitcher with not much upside, a #3 starter and an average first baseman good value for him?

[Crew2323]

However, I still feel they didn't get sufficient value for him.

How often do teams get sufficient value for superstars? As fans, we completely overvalue our own players, expecting to get a huge return, when in reality it isn't likely to happen, because the player(s) received in exchange won't likely have the impact that the player traded had. Would St. Louis get sufficient value in return for Pujols? Highly unlikely, as the players hypothetically fetched for Pujols wouldn't likely have the impact that he has. Did Minnesota get sufficient value for Santana? Maybe, maybe not. I'm not sure that we or anyone is truly able to assess whether or not a team gets sufficient value for any player. And if we certainly expect the players received in return to be equal to or greater than the player traded away, we are setting ourselves up for an enormous dissapointment.

 

Let me ask you this, if Prince was one year from free agency, would you consider a career backup catcher, 2 mediocre infielders, a minor league pitcher with not much upside, a #3 starter and an average first baseman good value for him?

To me, this is apples to oranges. While Sexson and Fielder are both first basemen, their games are different, at least in my opinion, and thus their value would be viewed differently.

[PeaveyFury]

I think the biggest mistake that Melvin made in his tenure was not putting Weeks/Braun in the OF right away in the minors.

 

To be fair, wouldn't that mainly be on Reid Nichols as director of the farm system?

[SoCalBrewfan]

The Brewers chose in the Sexson deal to get multiple players who were major league ready and yet cost-controlled, rather than two or three hot prospects who carried more risk but also more potential reward. There are tradeoffs to the two approaches, and at the time I favored getting two or three prospects. As I recall, the main competition to the AZ offer was a Dodger package of some combination of Hanrahan, Jackson, or Miller. Those guys were close to scrap heap level value a year ago...Jackson has emerged in Tampa this year and is still very young, but it's an open question whether he would have had any success with the Brewers. In retrospect, that Dodger deal would probably have been a disaster.

 

would you consider a career backup catcher, 2 mediocre infielders, a minor league pitcher with not much upside, a #3 starter and an average first baseman good value for [Prince Fielder]

 

First off, Prince looks to be better than Sexson at comparable ages, so this is not a particularly valid comparison IMO. There are differences between the 03 Brewers and what is the likely fate of the current team that make the comparison even less apt.

 

But beyond that, I think you are not valuing these players properly...or maybe you were overestimating the value of one year of Richie Sexson (plus the possibility of two draft picks). Overbay was only a little less productive than Sexson, under Brewers control for several years, and a lot cheaper. You could easily argue that Overbay alone was worth one year of Sexson. Of course O ultimately had a couple of good years then brought Bush, Gross, and Jackson in a trade. You dismissively point to a '#3 starter' as though that's of little value. Even an average starting pitcher has a lot of value (see the current Brewers if you doubt that claim), and Capuano was a legitimate all-star at one point, also under control for multiple years and at a bargain price. He has returned more value than all three of the Dodger pitchers combined thus far. Spivey was an adequate patch, and got us another average starter in Ohka. Counsell doesn't look like much at first glance, but was basically an average player due to his defense and OBP at short. De la Rosa we all saw up close...I don't think it's accurate to say that he didn't have much upside. Rather he was risky but with some upside...most thought he'd be at least a good reliever. He got us Graffanino for whatever that's worth.

 

There is a very good reason that fancy baseball stats compare players to replacement level. For a team like the Brewers circa 03, lacking in talent and needing to fill many holes, an average player has value because he keeps someone truly crappy out of the starting lineup. Such a trade would not make sense for the current Brewers, as they have young major leaguers at numerous positions, and are a much better team overall.

[PeaveyFury]

Even an average starting pitcher has a lot of value (see the current Brewers if you doubt that claim), and Capuano was a legitimate all-star at one point, also under control for multiple years and at a bargain price.

 

Yeah, Capuano was a legitimate #2 starter for us for his first few years in Milwaukee before the wheels came off last year for whatever reason. That in and of itself has probably made the trade worthwhile for the Brewers to this point.

[jwill535]

Speed and hitting ability is like height in basketball, you just can't teach it. I have no problem with getting the best hitter and teaching him defense. It is alot easier to learn to track a fly ball then it is to teach a guy to hit a slider 400'.

[jazzytrav]

I think the biggest mistake that Melvin made in his tenure was not putting Weeks/Braun in the OF right away in the minors.

 

To be fair, wouldn't that mainly be on Reid Nichols as director of the farm system?

But since their position normally directly relates to where they would play in the big leagues, wouldn't Melvin have most of the say in those matters?

[jeffy]

False. A ton of people here knew that Braun was a hack at 3b, the problem was, he didn't get any OF time in the minors, so playing him in the OF really was not an option. Koskie getting hurt sped up Braun's arrival as well. >

 

I'm sure that is true. I sure do not read everything here and I pay no attention to minor league stuff. However, my recollection is that early last season, when I asked something like "Why not just put Hall at third?" responses were all about this superstar coming up from the minor leagues to take over 3rd base.

 

I did not mean for my post to imply anything other than that I was surprised when this new guy came up and was a horror on defense. When it became clear that Koskie was not coming back any time soon the team should have changed plans and had Braun start working on the OF and committed to Hall at 3rd.

 

In additon, even if they were going to have Koskie, why not have gone with Hall at 2nd and Rickie Weeks in the outfield?

[twobrewers]

Let me ask you this, if Prince was one year from free agency, would you consider a career backup catcher, 2 mediocre infielders, a minor league pitcher with not much upside, a #3 starter and an average first baseman good value for him?

Actually, the fact his career has spiraled downwards since leaving Milwaukee is completely irrelevant.

So we are not allowed to take into account how Sexson has done since the trade - but we are suppose to consider how the players we obtained in the trade have performed?

 

That doesn't make any sense.

 

You cannot judge a trade on the day it happens. The only thing you can look at is the final results. I would rather have Capuano, Overbay, Bush, Ohka, Spivey, Counsell, Gross etc. for several seasons than one season of Sexson.

[SoCalBrewfan]

In additon, even if they were going to have Koskie, why not have gone with Hall at 2nd and Rickie Weeks in the outfield?

 

I think a lot of people here advocated keeping Hall in the infield...I know I supported that proposition. In fact I was in support of him over Hardy at shortstop. But I was surprised to see the suggested move of Weeks to the OF...that's been discussed, but there's some retroactive assumptions about Weeks that might not be warranted.

 

I think this quote points out what my beef is, though perhaps splitter's original is more appropriate.

 

As Splitter points out, the overwhelming consensus was that Weeks and especially Braun would not have the chops to play the IF at the major league level.

 

It's fair to say that the Brewers were the just about the only ones who saw Braun as a major league 3b.

 

However, I don't think there was the same 'overwhelming consensus' about Weeks. Weeks was a much less developed talent, coming from a small school (Southern U) without a big baseball profile, and having been barely recruited out of high school. He played SS and OF in college before ending up at 2B, and was viewed as very raw defensively, but I recall a sense that his tools were more than adequate for second. Most of the focus was on his bat, to be sure, and certainly there were those who saw him as a potential CF, but if there was an overwhelming consensus that he couldn't play the IF at the major league level, it escaped my notice. (And I followed the draft pretty heavily at the time.)

 

Or we can look back to one of our own...colbyjack's summary after Weeks signed: http://www.brewerfan.net/ViewArticle.do?articleId=154

Colby's always had a good handle on scouting perspectives, and his writeup is consistent with my recollection that Weeks was viewed as having the tools to play 2B.

 

Both Weeks and Braun were so accomplished with the bat that they advanced to the majors before their defense was ready. Both struggled in the IF, and it may be that they end up in the OF together at some point, because it's difficult to wait around for a guy to improve his defense when the games count and the team expects to win. There may be other reasons to advocate Weeks in CF as well; it may help him focus on his offense, for example, though the Bill Hall experiment suggests it may not be so simple. Weeks also has been somewhat brittle, and 2B is a position that gets banged around a bit.

 

But I don't think that it's accurate to put him in the same category as Braun...that is, as a guy everyone else had pegged as an OF but the Brewers. (If someone can show me otherwise I'll be glad to recant, and I'll check old BA books when I get home.)

[THEbrewguru]

Actually, the fact his career has spiraled downwards since leaving Milwaukee is completely irrelevant.

So we are not allowed to take into account how Sexson has done since the trade - but we are suppose to consider how the players we obtained in the trade have performed?

 

That doesn't make any sense.

 

You cannot judge a trade on the day it happens. The only thing you can look at is the final results. I would rather have Capuano, Overbay, Bush, Ohka, Spivey, Counsell, Gross etc. for several seasons than one season of Sexson.

Maybe I should start speaking Chinese so you understand clearer.

 

The Brewers traded a 28-year old all-star first baseman coming off a .272/45/124 year with an OBP of .379 and SLG of .548. In fact, his 2 previous years were pretty similiar. So 3 years of an established player coming into his peak years.

 

They were not, no matter how much you want to believe it, trading the .205/.295/.399 player of 2007.

 

As I said, coming into his peak years (most people say peak years are between 28-32).

 

Overbay was a below average league first baseman. (I saw a stat where in 2005, he ranked 13-15 in most categories among first baseman). I won't get into another debate over Crapuano. Spivey played 108 mediocre games for the Brewers, Ohka was 11-13 with a 96 ERA+, Counsell played one year before leaving as a FA, Gross sucks and was traded for almost a non-prospect in A ball, Bush is a #5 starter.

 

If you think that's fair value, that's fine. I think Melvin got hosed on the deal. And a lot of people said so at the time. Those that didn't drink the koolaid or were impressed by the quantity.