Time to start looking at Melvin?

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Doug Melvin has brought the Brewers from Garbage Collectors to contenders in the division. Sure, he we haven't gotten to the playoffs yet, but at least baseball is worthwhile in Milwaukee. It sure wasn't in 2002.

[TooLiveBrew]

Since when does a guy get credit just for "attempting" to do something?

 

Since GM's can't make a player hit or throw strikes. All they can do is put together the best grouping of players they feel is possible. Some of the expectations around BF's forums lately have been astronomical. Luck plays such a huge role in teams' success, it's really not even funny. I think Melvin has been solid -- really the only trade that has stunk has been the Davis/Estrada deal, and Doug got what he & his crew felt at the time was the best they could do on aggregate. To get a better catcher than what Estrada appeared to be would've taken parts that Doug didn't want to deal.

 

I'm thankful that as a small-market club, we don't have a GM that is willing to sell the farm for one season. Given how heavily the odds are stacked against even the heaviest favorite, those types of moves don't tend to work well. I'd probably give him a B grade so far, and very much want to wait & see how the bounty of draft picks this summer plays out.

[danzig6767]

Since when does a guy get credit just for "attempting" to do something?

 

Since GM's can't make a player hit or throw strikes. All they can do is put together the best grouping of players they feel is possible. Some of the expectations around BF's forums lately have been astronomical. Luck plays such a huge role in teams' success, it's really not even funny. I think Melvin has been solid -- really the only trade that has stunk has been the Davis/Estrada deal, and Doug got what he & his crew felt at the time was the best they could do on aggregate. To get a better catcher than what Estrada appeared to be would've taken parts that Doug didn't want to deal.

It's true that the Davis/Estrada trade was the only really bad one. With that said, Melvin runs the operation and if we keep just finishing right around .500 and no playoff berths, it has to go on him. If i'm Attanasio, at some point fairly soon, i wouldn't accept my GM just doing a solid job with .500 or barely above .500 results.

If i thought Doug has been given an extremely tough task to try and get the Brewers in the playoffs, i'd have lower expectations of him. Like say a payroll only in the 25-55 million range and/or taking over a team with a farm system severely lacking in talent. Neither is the case though in Milwaukee. Doug has an 80 million dollar payroll to spend and the Jac Zduriencik Express have delivered boxcar full of quality cheap young talent.

Yea bad luck with injuries can badly harm a team. Key players can have an off year. No question things can happen that a GM can't control. Overall though, i think Melvin has done a pretty god to good job since coming here, not the great job some proclaim given the positive things he's had to work with and the length of time on the job. If we miss the playoffs this year while again just finishing in that 82-85 win range or lower, my tolerance the next season for more yea but if only comments would likely fall on deaf ears if we fell short yet again.

 

[mikemercury]

I would grade Melvin's first 3 years as A. The last 2+ seasons it can be argued he's been average or of a "C" grade. Overall that makes it a "B-?" All those reclamation projects gave us a respectable team, instead of starting guys who would DFA'ed or 25th men on half of other rosters. This team was ridiculously bad in '02. My top 5 favorite Melvin moves with a little hindsight would be:

 

1 Trade Podsednik/Vizsicano for Carlos Lee. It gave us the cleanup hitter we needed for two guys who's value peaked and were replaced by better in-house options(for at least one year anyway) Brady Clark in CF/Leadoff and Matt Wise as the 8th inning setup guy.

 

2. Sexon for 6 players. Sometimes the best prospect (Jorge DeLerosa) doesn't pan out, but we got a starting C, 2B, SS, 1B, SP, and King George. Overbay and Cappy for a 1 year rental straight up would have been a fleece, throw in 3 starters up the middle, who were below average, but still upgrades over what we had, and a hard throwing, young lefty, and wow.

 

3. Loogy Shouse for a bag of balls. Team has got more "bang for their buck" out of him over any post-arby player in the Melvin era.

 

4. Mota for dead weight/Jason Kendall signing - At the time of this post we are only 1.5 of 6 months through the season, but Estrada and his bull headedness are gone for a viable MLB starting catcher and flame throwing and valuable bullpen arm.

 

5. Carlos Lee/Nelson Cruz - CoCo, Mench and his big head, Nix - Lee wasn't comming back, and the entire MLB knew this. We caught lighting in a bottle with CoCo for 1 1/2 years, Mench forced Jenkins to be what he truely is, a platoon player. Cruz proved he was AAAA fodder.

 

Honorable mention to Toma Ohka for Spivey. It's hard enough to get SP, especially when you have to trade a player to make room for replacement(Weeks) over the next 6+ years. Same can be said about Overbay for Bush/Gross, Zack Jackson. I was also a huge fan at the time of the Jenkins, Hall, and Sheets contract extensions, and Damian Miller, David Riske and Mike Cameron signings, and Torres trade.

 

The only Melvin moves I would delcare a full blown looser was last offseason's Eveland/Davis/speedy lefty OFer for Vargas, Estrada, Aquino. I wonder since the only player we wanted at the time was Estrada if we could have got just him for Eveland? That trade looks more lopsided because Eveland is having success in Oakland that didn't have in Milwaukee (or Arizona). Davis signed a 3 year extension for cheaper then Supan money. The other mistake was offering Graffy arby after signing Council for 2 years 6 million. Overall minor in the whole grand scheme of things.

 

I still think signing Supan was a good idea. Owner Mark A wanted a free agent, and because of that we offered big money to Juan Pierre and Dave Roberts that same off-season. Supan is much better option then those two, and is being paid in line with the Ted Lilly, Jason Schmidt, Jarod Washburn, Gil Meches of the world, and putting up better numbers. If we don't have Supan and his 200 innings last year, I think we finish more then 2 games out of 1st. The Linebrink deal was baddly needed last year, and while we did pay a bunch, Thatcher is nothing, Inman and Garrison could be replaced and/or surpassed by the picks we got for letting Linebrink walk. Gagne was expensive at 10 million but there was no other viable options on the market. Some of the best non-closer options we acquired anyway in the form of Riske, Torres and Mota.

[Postseason2006]

 

 

2. Sexon for 6 players. Sometimes the best prospect (Jorge DeLerosa) doesn't pan out, but we got a starting C, 2B, SS, 1B, SP, and King George. Overbay and Cappy for a 1 year rental straight up would have been a fleece, throw in 3 starters up the middle, who were below average, but still upgrades over what we had, and a hard throwing, young lefty, and wow.

 

Still an awful trade. I still do not get how anyone could rate this trade marginally worth a crap. The Brewers have a whole whopping Dave Bush to show for this crap now. Sexson was the most popular Brewer at the time. Yes, Prince was in the minors and we got Overbay, but we also got little to nothing for him in return. Basing what your argument was, Overbay had a great season his first year in Toronto.

 

Melvin's best move was trading Edwin Encarnacian to Cincy for Juicy Fruit and a Capri Sun. Nice Job Doug.

 

He had a huge checkbook in Texas and didn't know what starting pitching was.

[TooLiveBrew]

Yeah, only three consecutive playoff appearances. What a loser.

[Postseason2006]

And 3 one and dones...what a great GM with a unlimited bank payroll.

[TooLiveBrew]

Hardly unlimited. But I can see that he won't get credit for his time in Texas, so have at it. Apparently a GM is supposed to be able to account for all the fluky stuff that can happen when you play a first to three/four wins series.

[logan82]

Postseason2006 wrote:

Still an awful trade. I still do not get how anyone could rate this trade marginally worth a crap. The Brewers have a whole whopping Dave Bush to show for this crap now. Sexson was the most popular Brewer at the time. Yes, Prince was in the minors and we got Overbay, but we also got little to nothing for him in return. Basing what your argument was, Overbay had a great season his first year in Toronto.

That trade brought us players to fill spots we would have had to fill with our young players at least a year sooner. You have to take into consideration Weeks in 2011, Hardy in 2010, and Fielder in 2011 when you evaluate that trade. Yeah Sexon was a good player, but when you have no chance at a winning record it doesn't make sense to hold onto players who are not going to be around when you are going to be competitive. Keeping a player so you can win 75 games insted of 72 games isn't worth as much as when you can win 85 instead of 82.

[ILuvDaBush]

I'm pretty sure if you went by Win Shares of the players for each team since the trade of Sexson, the Brewers would come out ahead. :-)

[kramnoj]

He had a huge checkbook in Texas and didn't know what starting pitching was.

 

You should look at the 1996 team. That is a very solid pitching staff, and it did a good job in the postseason against the Yankees too. 3 quality starts in 4 games is far from a disaster.

[pmg4]

At that point do we let Melvin keep his job as GM or do we hand over the reigns to Jack Z who deserves a GM gig?

I am just about to read the rest of this thread, so if this has been covered, I apologize. I am so incensed by this statement, I have to respond immediately. What could possibly make a person think that a great scout is automatically a great GM? I personally think that Jack Z should be the highest paid scout in the league but never, ever be moved from that position.

How does the job of scouting director even relate to the responsibilities of a GM? The equivalent to me would be saying that A-Rod will be the best manager ever. He's great at playing, so of course he would be great managing players.

[pmg4]

He signed Suppan because he was a "winner".

 

He traded Gabe Gross (who was walking like crazy) to get more at-bats for Gwynn.

 

He gave up Eveland in a trade that placed Johnny Estrada, Claudio Vargas, and Greg Aquino on our roster for an entire year.

 

He traded Inman for a middle reliever who is now gone.

 

He has retained Ned Yost, for reasons I don't understand.

Wow. I disagree on every point.

1. He signed Soup because he is a post-season winner. Let's see what he is when the Crew is playing in October before we get all bent out of shape. In the regular season, he is a .500 pitcher, which he has been so far.

2. He traded Gross to get at-bats for Cameron, not Gwynn. Gwynn is just cheaper. Gabe Gross is a journeyman. Get your mind around it.

3. Dana Eveland, who so far has proved to be nothing special, got us a starting catcher, starting pitcher, and reliever for an entire season, and that isn't enough? Were you dating him?

 

4. Inman went for Linebrink, who became a valuable draft pick. Let's wait and see on that one.

5. Dear Mr. Melvin, I don't understand what you are doing with the manager. It may have something to do with the owner, but I just don't understand it. So it must be wrong. Please resign.

 

[pmg4]

the thing is other franchises get better, win, then get torn apart, and rebuild again, and get better--oakland, cleveland, florida, come to mind--all mid type markets. this prolonged slump since 1992, or 1982 (take your pick for your starting point) is really getting tiring.

Once again, load of crap. Melvin has been here 5 years. Not 15, not 25. Florida has won twice in 10 years. DM inherited a desert. We are on the verge of playoffs and more. The Bando era was horrible; you are scarred. Got it. This is a new time.

 

[pmg4]

The Detroit Tigers were a laughing stock in 2003 (43 wins), and they managed to get to the World Series within 3 years. The Diamondbacks won 51 games in 2004, and made the playoffs with 90 wins in 2007. The Rockies won 67 games in 2005, and made the World Series in 2007 with a 90-win season. These were all teams that relied on young talent, and filled in the gaps with veterans. They made it work in considerably less time. Both the Diamondbacks and Rockies had smaller payrolls than the Brewers last season.

This is terrific. Very good examples, DJ43.

I have a couple of questions: did any of those teams (Tigers, D-Backs, Rox) change GMs before or during their rebuilding? And what was the status of their own minor leagues at the time of their rotten seasons? This is an honest question from a guy too lazy to find out on his own, not an attempt to start a fight.

 

[DougJones43]

3. Dana Eveland, who so far has proved to be nothing special, got us a starting catcher, starting pitcher, and reliever for an entire season, and that isn't enough? Were you dating him?

Here is the overall Win Probability Added of each of those 3 players during the 2007 season:

 

Estrada: -1.66

Vargas: -1.32

Aquino: -1.41

Total: -4.39

 

Basically, this means that their mere presence on the roster equated to about 4.5 losses, as opposed to if they just weren't there at all. Simply acquiring a handful of detremental players and sticking them on the major league roster, in and of itself, isn't exactly an accomplishment.

 

And Dana Eveland is having a fine season with the A's, a team that has actually had some success during the past 5 years. Although I might be biased, with him being my boyfriend and all.

 

 

Gabe Gross is a journeyman. Get your mind around it.

Condescension like that hardly seems necessary. I never claimed Gabe Gross was a superstar, or even a starter. But I think his ability to draw walks would be valuable to the team, and I'd much rather have him as a 4th outfielder than Kapler or Gwynn.

[kramnoj]

I'm not familiar with Win Percentage Added, but it sounds like a generic formula that doesn't really add anything. I don't doubt that Estrada didn't add much value to the Brewers last year, except that he was the best option they had within the system. I don't buy that the Brewers would have been better off without him last year, and the Brewers clearly agree, otherwise he wouldn't have played 120 games.

[DougJones43]

except that he was the best option they had within the system.

That's kind of the point. Melvin acquired him, and set up the roster as such that Estrada was the team's starting catcher. I'm sure he could have chosen a number of different routes to go during the offseason, but he went after Estrada, who is terrible. So it was Melvin's choice, and Melvin's predicament. You can't just excuse him for the fact that Estrada was the best option, when he was the one who set it up that way.

[TooLiveBrew]

But you also have to credit Melvin for being unwilling to part with any more than he did. Just like this most recent offseason, Melvin did not want to pay the higher cost (of prospects) to go down those other routes you mention. The Linebrink deal imo has been an aberration from Doug's norm of not parting with the better prospects in the system just to get a guy that's MLB ready. You're right that he rolled the dice with Estrada, but I think Johnny was clearly worse than the FO thought he would be. If Estrada meant keeping Gamel, Parra, etc., then I'm happy that's the path Doug chose.

[endaround]

The Brewers could have gotten Estrada for just Davis. Melvin wanted another starter coming back to fill Davis' spot, so the Dbacks included Vargas and Melvin had to offer up Eveland (which the team put behind Jackson) and to even it out he got the nugget of Aquino. It was just a terrible trade.

[Fatter than Joey]

1. He signed Soup because he is a post-season winner.

 

If this statement was true, DM is an idiot for signing a "post-season" winner w/o signing enough "regular-season" winners

 

Once again, load of crap. Melvin has been here 5 years. Not 15, not 25.

 

This is Melvin's 6th season -- He has had enough time to get the Brewers into the playoffs. Not too many GM's in any sport get to keep their job for 6+ years w/o producing results.

[twobrewers]

4. Inman went for Linebrink, who became a valuable draft pick. Let's wait and see on that one.

Two draft picks. One sandwich and one second round pick.

[kramnoj]

Not too many GM's in any sport get to keep their job for 6+ years w/o producing results.

 

You think a winning record and near capacity crowds at Miller Parks aren't producing results?

[pete]

This is Melvin's 6th season -- He has had enough time to get the Brewers into the playoffs. Not too many GM's in any sport get to keep their job for 6+ years w/o producing results.

 

 

And he has had a pipeline of outstanding position players.

[BrewCrewForever]

I didn't like the Linebrink or the Estrada trades. Other then that I think Melvin has done a damn good job.