Time to start looking at Melvin?

[trwi7]

They actually did have Randy Johnson in 2007. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

Although I do agree with DougJones. Other GM's have done more with less.

[LouisEly]

Lots of good stuff here the last couple of days. Some thoughts:

 

1) I would not put DM amongst the top 5 GMs in the game, but I would put him somewhere in that #6 to #12 range. Is he the best? No. Is he in the top half? Yes.

 

B) While DM has not guided the team to more than 83 wins, when he took over they were on pace to be a VERY bad team for a long time. Look at this roster in 2002: http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIL/2002.shtml Look at that list of pitchers and name one talented pitcher on that team not named Ben Sheets. They had a couple decent bullpen guys in DeJean, King, Vizcaino, and a career year from VDLS, but as for starters other than Sheets they had GARBAGE. To get them to 83 wins starting with that lack of talent was pretty amazing. Look at how much talent he had to add in 2003 just to get them to 68 wins - sign Scott Podsednik, Eddie Perez, John Vander Wal, Royce Clayton, Brady Clark, Doug Davis, Dan Kolb, Dave Burba, and Brooks Kieschnick. Most of those guys had very good seasons, yet the starting pitching was so bad they had to trade what they could for Matt Kinney (nobody) and Wes Obermueller (Leskanic). He was given nothing for OFs too outside of Jenkins, as he was forced to start Brady Clark and sign Ben Grieve amongst other things. I think people really underestimate how little Melvin started with in October 2002, both at the major league level and at the minor league level (plenty of recent first round busts in Jones, Krynzel, Gold, Peterson, Green, and absolutely no talent at all from the 1996, 1997, and 1998 drafts coming up in the system).

 

3) What he was able to do with free agent guys like Podsednik, Turnbow, Wise, Helling, etc., to Kapler and Branyan this year has been remarkable. I'd argue that he is the best scrap heap evaluator in the business.

 

4) Back to pitching - someone commented that pitchers haven't been produced as much as hitters during his tenure. That's because they have invested a lot more high picks in position players than pitchers. In DMs first draft, none of the top 5 picks were pitchers. The next year the opposite - top 4 picks all pitchers, and he hit on one (Gallardo). All drafts after that are too recent to expect any of them to be in the majors by now, but pitchers picked in his tenure include Stetter, Taubenheim, Gallardo, Periad, Hammond, Garrison, Braddock, Welch, Aguilar, Jeffress, and a host of other prospects (Anundsen, Seidel, Bryson, Tyson, Hand, etc.). But in his first five drafts (2003-2007) he's only picked eight pitchers total in the top five rounds (Rogers, Gallardo, Wahpepah, Baker, Inman, Roberts, Jeffress, and Anundsen) versus 15 position players. You could go even further and say that he has only picked three pitchers in the top two rounds in those five drafts, and two look like hits (Gallardo, Jeffress). You can't expect them to produce as many pitching prospects as position players when you don't invest in each equally in the top five rounds, much less the top two.

 

5) As for trades, you win some and you lose some. King for Helms/Foster - Helms' 2003 season as an every-day player compared to the value of King as a LOOGY makes this a good trade. Leskanic for Obermueller - not a good trade (but the desperation for starting pitching forced it). Kinney for minor leaguers who never made it - good trade. Sexson for the haul - all in all, a wash. Podsednik for Lee - highway robbery. Branyan from Cleveland as a "conditional" deal - more highway robbery. Cruz & Lehr for Ginter - probably good, as Ginter did nothing afterwards. Capellan for Kolb - considering Kolb pitched worse than Capellan after he left, probably good. Overbay/Taubenheim for Bush/Gross/Jackson - not good, but it was forced by inheriting Fielder. Wolfe for Koskie - great until Koskie got hurt. Lee/Cruz for Cordero/Mench/Nix - probably a wash, but forced by a need for a closer. CV for Estrella/Franklin - good trade. Shouse for Enrique Cruz - highway robbery. Kolb II for Obermueller - who cares. Davis/Eveland/Krynzel for Aquino/Vargas/Estrada - not good, but forced by the need for a catcher. Linebrink - until Thatcher/Inman/Garrison do anything at the major league level it is a good trade, but again forced by the need for bullpen help. Balfour for McClung - so far looking like a good trade. All in all, a lot more good trades than bad trades.

 

All in all, Melvin has done a good job of building the team in incremental steps, and given the host of free agents he had to sign and trades to make just to make the 2003/2004 teams even remotely competitive was amazing.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I second the previous post and nice job with the in depth analysis. Melvin indeed isn't a top 5 GM, but 6th to 12th is spot on.

[TooLiveBrew]

Yeah, I 'third' that. I'm not certain how I'd slot the different GMs, but imho Melvin is certainly in the top half. Of course now that Bavasi's out of a job, the competition inevitably gets tougher for Doug. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[logan82]

Lee/Cruz for Cordero/Mench/Nix - probably a wash

 

I disagree on that one. Lee was likley to be gone at the end of the season and we have plenty of outfielders to the point where Cruz didn't really have a place to play with us.(although he is tearing up the PCL, at 28 years old) We were out of the playoff race with or without Lee so at that point it made sense to trade an expiring contract. Cordero stayed with up for a year and a half and then brought us 2 comp picks. Mench and Nix are nothing special, but we really didn't give up anything to get them. I wouldn't call it a great trade, but it was better than a wash.

[PeaveyFury]

Of course now that Bavasi's out of a job, the competition inevitably gets tougher for Doug.

 

And that brings up one of my major concerns with the suggestion that the Brewers should fire Doug because there might be a guy out there that can get us a couple more wins- what if by some chance, the ownership decides that someone like Bavasi is the guy for the job? Heck, most people didn't think we could get much worse than the Bando/Garner tandem, but Lopes ended up being a worse manager and Taylor did almost as much as Bando to decimate the major league team through horrific trades and major-league level moves.

[bklynbrewcrew]

I agree that replacing Melvin would be risky but I might be willing to take that risk with Jack Z since I believe he is the biggest reason why this team is no longer a bottom feeder.

[Fatter than Joey]

Cordero stayed with up for a year and a half and then brought us 2 comp picks

 

I don't see the comp. picks as an advantage, as we would have gotten comp. picks if we would have let Lee walk instead of trading him.

 

I think the above trade though was a good one, if for no other reason that Turnbow went from AS Game to the toilet, and we needed a BP arm in the worst way. I think DM bought low on Cordero, and overall the trade still makes all the sense in the world to me.

[hauser42]

I agree that replacing Melvin would be risky but I might be willing to take that risk with Jack Z since I believe he is the biggest reason why this team is no longer a bottom feeder.

I believe Jack Z got a look from the Pirates last year. How much have we heard teams looking at him or him being on someones list?

 

Jack seems like a guy that would be happy with staying in his job and being successfull and not dealing with all the headaches and failures that come with GMs.

[Team Canada]

Actually, Jack has said he would very much like a GM job.

[LaprilOne]

Well, now, where is the board at on Doug.

 

I give him major credit for CC.

[Fatter than Joey]

I give him major credit for CC.

 

I don't. He was essentially the highest bidder. I do give Jack Z huge props for giving DM an unsurmountable advantage, in the CC sweepstakes.

 

I think he has more work to do -- If we acquire CC and the Brewers fall short because the BP is not addressed, and we lose LaPorta/Brantley/Green for nothing, I think he should be fired immediately.

[sweepscc]

Well, now, where is the board at on Doug.

 

I give him major credit for CC.

I haven't been thrilled with our bullpens since Doug has gotten here and that has always been my major contention with Melvin. Nothings changed in that department but I do like that Melvin didn't sell the farm to get Sabathia (put his foot down on Escobar, etc.) and he was wise to move early for him.

 

[bklynbrewcrew]

I fear losing JacK Z way more than losing Melvin. Without Jack Z running the draft this organization would be a complete bottom feeder. Losing him would do far more damage than losing anyone in this entire organization players included. What other team could even think about giving up a prospect the caliber of LaPorta knowing that they have guys like Gamel and Escobar in the system as well. Jack Z is the cog that makes this organization run and that cog must be kept at all costs even if it means giving Melvin a higher title like team president and making Jack the GM.

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't. He was essentially the highest bidder.

 

Well, that's how you land a player like Sabathia. You don't get him for LaPorta + Bryson.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I don't. He was essentially the highest bidder. I do give Jack Z huge props for giving DM an unsurmountable advantage, in the CC sweepstakes.

 

I think he has more work to do -- If we acquire CC and the Brewers fall short because the BP is not addressed, and we lose LaPorta/Brantley/Green for nothing, I think he should be fired immediately.

You don't give Doug Melving any credit at all for the Sabathia deal? That's amazing. The guy who gets on the phone and does all the negotiating and that will take all the heat if this goes wrong doesn't get any credit? I am going to have to disagree whole heartedly with that.

[Fatter than Joey]

Well, that's how you land a player like Sabathia. You don't get him for LaPorta + Bryson.

 

Exactly -- and that's why DM should not get credit and JZ should. If DM would have landed CC for LaPorta+Bryson, then I would concede that DM had performed GM wizardry. DM had the most "prospect capital" to work with, which was the fruits of JZ's labor.

[TooLiveBrew]

Thanks for clarifying -- would've been nice to see instead of just a vague rip on Melvin.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Exactly -- and that's why DM should not get credit and JZ should. If DM would have landed CC for LaPorta+Bryson, then I would concede that DM had performed GM wizardry. DM had the most "prospect capital" to work with, which was the fruits of JZ's labor.

Last time I checked it was Melvin working the phones with Ash getting this deal done and not Jack Z. Giving no credit to Melvin is a mistake.

 

You can give credit to Jack Z if you want, but some credit is still warranted to Doug Melvin.

[sveumrules]

I haven't been thrilled with our bullpens since Doug has gotten here and that has always been my major contention with Melvin.

 

which gm's in the league consistently DO put together a good bullpen, though? it's by far the area of any team which is bound to have the most variance in performance year to year as you're dealing with guys who, even if they're in the upper tier, get 70 innings a year.

[Fatter than Joey]

You don't give Doug Melving any credit at all for the Sabathia deal?

 

What I responded to was "major credit". I think this deal was all about have multiple desirable prospects for DM to deal with. I think the "major credit" goes to JZ on this. I never said DM doesn't deserve any credit -- I think he did his job, but JZ deserves the doughnut with sprinkles.

 

Thanks for clarifying

 

Whatever, you're welcome I suppose.

 

would've been nice to see instead of just a vague rip on Melvin.

 

I never ripped on DM vague or otherwise. I think my point was clear, that DM would not been able to pull off this deal w/o JZ doing his job, and you readily confirmed that with your follow-up post.

 

The guy who gets on the phone and does all the negotiating and that will take all the heat if this goes wrong doesn't get any credit?

 

Big props to Dougie for being able to use the phone!

 

Seriously though, I don't think DM didn't do anything every last GM could have done, if they would have had an AA team with 10 all-stars on it.

[Oldcity]

I agree Melvin had the most to offer by far, and that's a credit to Jack Z, but what I really liked is Doug he went about it. He acted very early and he set a deadline that Cleveland met.

 

Also I think it's pretty safe to assume they'll add a bullpen arm, so I don't get the point of saying now that Melvin should be fired if he doesn't address the bullpen.

[bklynbrewcrew]

I thought Melvin addressed the bullpen by adding Gagne, Torres, Mota, and Riske. We have one of the highest paid relief corps in baseball and the only one out of that group that has earned his money is Torres. If Melvin makes a Linebrink type trade again it will be a big strike against him and admission that his offseason bullpen retooling was a complete failure. After giving several top prospects for Sabathia I would rather not deplete our system any further.

[sweepscc]

I haven't been thrilled with our bullpens since Doug has gotten here and that has always been my major contention with Melvin.

 

which gm's in the league consistently DO put together a good bullpen, though? it's by far the area of any team which is bound to have the most variance in performance year to year as you're dealing with guys who, even if they're in the upper tier, get 70 innings a year.

We've consistently been bad. There has been no progress in this area since DM has been here. I think we currently rank something like 26th in ERA after the 7th inning. I realize part of the problem is because Jack Z hasn't filled our farm with arms the past eight years but bringing in under performing players and hoping for a turn around isn't going to cut it anymore. If that means trading minor league resources for arms so be it.

 

[logan82]

I stick by what I said before,

 

I think we should keep Melvin. Looking at him, I think he has a really cool mustache. If he ever shaves it, then he has to go.