Time to start looking at Melvin?

[bklynbrewcrew]

I think its time we really started looking closer at Doug Melvin as well as Yost. Lets say this team continues to flounder and finishes below .500 for the season. At that point do we let Melvin keep his job as GM or do we hand over the reigns to Jack Z who deserves a GM gig?

 

To me it comes down to a few factors the biggest being Melvin's stubbornness in regards to his manager. I am sure that both Melvin and the owner expect this team to compete for a division title. I believe that Doug is a good baseball man who understands what it takes to win since he did make the playoffs in Texas several times. That is why i find it incredible that he wouldnt see by now that Ned is not the right man for this job.

 

After last year's collapse and this years team underachieving again either the talent is just not good enough which I dont think is the case or they are not being led by the right manager. Young teams are supposed to improve but this team makes the same fundamental mistakes every game and the team looks like it is regressing. If Melvin cant see this I really wonder if he is the right GM to lead the Brewers to a World Series championship.

 

I also question whether Melvin can put together a good enough pitching staff to win a championship. I still remember his Texas teams starting John Burkett in the first game of a playoff series. Yet he doesn't seem to have any interest in signing Sheets long term despite the fact that a number one pitcher is the hardest commodity in baseball to find.

 

Do we really want a rotation next season of Gallardo, Suppan, Villy, Parra, and Bush, and does Melvin actually believe that this is good enough to make the playoffs with? In summation I am really starting to question Melvin in regards to his stubbornness regarding keeping Yost as well as his ability to build a playoff caliber pitching staff.

 

 

(divided one paragraph into five for readability --1992)

[kramnoj]

Burkett pitched a complete game and gave up two runs in that game. I don't think he's your best evidence that Mevlin doesn't know how to build a pitching staff.

 

I believe Melvin is signed through next year. Certainly there will be some kind of review after this season, but I believe Melvin is a better GM than most.

[recte44]

Let's not get carried away quite yet. As far as I can tell Melvin has made ONE huge mistake, and that was Gagne. The rotation wouldn't have been that big of a problem had Gallardo not been injured, it was a fluke and out of Melvin (on anyone's) control.

 

Some questionable moves that the jury is still out on:

1) Suppan's contract

2) Signing Bill Hall to an extension

3) Giving Cameron money instead of going with Gwynn in CF

4) Relying on a right handed heavy lineup

5) The youngsters (Weeks, Parra, Villy) that may or may not pan out

6) His 2008 bullpen construction beyond Gagne

 

It's May, folks. I can't say it enough. I know we're all frustrated right now, but there is still plenty of time to turn this thing around. We're only 5 games out....how many games were the Cubs behind us at one point last season?

 

Inhale....exhale.

[bklynbrewcrew]

I am not in favor of getting rid of Melvin but if he is too stubborn to fire Yost then I really question whether he should stay on as GM..

[Ennder]

I would wait and see what Villy and Parra look like at the end of the year before deciding what to do with the pitching. I just cannot see signing Sheets long term as a sure thing must do deal. It is a very complicated question since there is a ton of risk involved and he is going to be looking for a big payday.

I think if Capuano hadn't been hurt and Gallardo hadn't been hurt we'd have a pretty good rotation this year. Sheets, Gallardo, Capuano, Villanueva, Suppan with Bush/Parra to fill in for whoever struggles. The fact we lost 2 pitchers for the season by May 5th is what is making the rotation look bad, not Doug Melvin. Almost any team in baseball looks bad when you take out 2 starters, especially when one is the 2nd best starter on the team.

[recte44]

Please, please, please let's not turn this into another Yost bashing thread. There are plenty of those floating around already.

[DougJones43]

I know we're all frustrated right now, but there is still plenty of time to turn this thing around... Inhale....exhale.

I feel like I've heard this before....

 

Doug Melvin should be looked at. There have been a lot of questionable moves, but more than that, it seems as though questionable philosophies have been the driving force behind those moves. He signed Suppan because he was a "winner". He traded Gabe Gross (who was walking like crazy) to get more at-bats for Gwynn. He gave up Eveland in a trade that placed Johnny Estrada, Claudio Vargas, and Greg Aquino on our roster for an entire year. He traded Inman for a middle reliever who is now gone. He has retained Ned Yost, for reasons I don't understand.

 

And more than anything, Melvin has had a lot of time and money to build the team he wants. Yet the sum of all of his moves has been very disappointing to say the least, and that's what counts more than anything when it's all set and done.

[kramnoj]

I wouldn't even call signing Gagne a huge mistake. It was a calculated one-year gamble. The team had a huge hole to fill, and he took an expensive flier on a move that could have a nice reward. I guess we could imagine what it would have taken to get Valverde. What would it have cost the Brewers to get him?

[Fatter than Joey]

The rotation wouldn't have been that big of a problem had Gallardo not been injured, it was a fluke and out of Melvin (on anyone's) control.

 

No starter not named Ben Sheets has won a game since April 5th. The rotation is a problem regardless of Yost.

 

We're only 5 games out....how many games were the Cubs behind us at one point last season?

 

Right, and then the Brewers collapsed. Why are you drawing correlations to an entirely different team -- the closest team to the 08 Brewers is the 07 Brewers.

[MickeyDavis]

Calculated one year gambles are fine for some teams. But when a team has a very small window, one year without a closer is devastating.

[Ennder]

No starter not named Ben Sheets has won a game since April 5th. The rotation is a problem regardless of Yost.

There is no reason to expect Capuano, Bush, Villanueva and Parra to all fail at the major league level though. Gallardo, Sheets, Suppan gave us a relatively stable top of the rotation and we had a mix of mediocre vets and upside youth in the #4 and #5 spots. Very few teams have solid sure things starters 1-5. I still don't see how you say Melvin was lacking in vision to lead to this, we lost two guys for the year very early in the year and it created holes. There is still time for Villanueva or Parra to step up and become the pitchers most expect them to be.

 

 

(edit: long quote --1992)

[Fatter than Joey]

I still don't see how you say Melvin was lacking in vision to lead to this, we lost two guys for the year very early in the year and it created holes.

 

That wasn't the point I was making.

 

Recte said this:

 

The rotation wouldn't have been that big of a problem had Gallardo not been injured, it was a fluke and out of Melvin (on anyone's) control.

 

If Yo had not been injured, we'd still be pretty much in the same boat we are in now. I took issue with that statement.

 

There is no reason to expect Capuano, Bush, Villanueva and Parra to all fail at the major league level though.

 

There was no real compelling reason to think that 3 out of 4 of those pitchers would be solid.

 

Furthermore, I don't think DM had plans for Capuano in the rotation for 2008.

[valpocrewsader]

Amidst all the DM blunders mentioned in this thread, I'm not even seeing my three favorite: Turnbow contract (waste of money), Brady Clark contract (waste of money), and decision to play Hall in CF for an entire year (did nothing but hurt us in '07).

[creamcityfan]

I think Doug has done a good job.The only one i don't like it Gagne.

[moofnelson]

I'm surprised it took this long to create a thread to question Melvin's job as GM. I had thought about starting one myself.

 

Doug Melvin has been the GM for over 5 1/2 years. I'm not going to bother doing research on this, but my guess is that most GM's don't get more than 5 seasons to produce a playoff team.

 

I don't care for the Suppan signing because he simply hasn't produced. But that's easy to say in hindsight. If his contract prevents the Brewers from signing Sheets, though, it's effects are even worse.

 

Melvin, I would guess, thougt that he was going to get Cordero for the money he offered. Having lost Cordero, there weren't many options out there for closers. Gagne was about the only option.

[kramnoj]

I don't care for the Suppan signing because he simply hasn't produced.

 

What were you expecting from Suppan, and how did you base your expectations?

[jazzytrav]

3) Giving Cameron money instead of going with Gwynn in CF

I can understand people liking Gwynn over Gross, even though I don't agree. But I'm not real sure the jury is still out about Gwynn v. Cameron. I don't recall when the jury was ever out about that.

[twobrewers]

2) Signing Bill Hall to an extension

To be fair, and I am a Doug Melvin supporter, I think you are only looking at current Brewer players. Doug has had very poor luck with long term contracts. (Brady Clark/Turnbow)

 

Calculated one year gambles are fine for some teams. But when a team has a very small window, one year without a closer is devastating.

The best thing Melvin has done for the Brewers has been to build us as a team that compete year in and year out. I disagree with the notion that we have a small window. We may have a small window with the current players, but we have ample talent to keep replenishing from within.

 

There was no real compelling reason to think that 3 out of 4 of those pitchers would be solid.

I am curious as to how Melvin might build a better rotation than the one he assembled this offseason. Sheets, Suppan, Capuano, Gallardo, Villanueva, Bush, Capuano, and Parra are all quality MLB pitchers. We have had some unfortunate performances and injuries. Melvin can't control either.

[pete]

I think it would be interesting to have a summary of the arguments against and for. Under both would be ones that aren't agreed on. For instance, I'd have to say a strong argument against him was the use of Capuano and Bush last year and then given the bad performances, carrying that over to this year. Its completely insane to run Bush out again. I have to wonder what the players think every time that happens.

 

What would Melvin have been able to do without a pipeline of extraordinary position players?

[Ennder]

It is insane to ignore the larger sample on Capuano and Bush and throw them under the bus because of one bad season where our defense was horrible and their peripherals were better than their results. If Melvin replaced those guys as end of rotation players because of last years ERA he would be a bad GM, what he did was being a good GM regardless of how it works out.

 

Turnbow is a good example of a bad contract because his numbers were extremely flukish and there was no reason to expect him to be good again. Capuano is a bad example because there was no reason to expect another bad season out of him other than the fact he got hurt.

[pete]

So two years of bad results is what a good GM would wait for? Three perhaps? Bush has a heck of a start.

 

A couple crude indicators should be weighed against observing the actual performance and, of course, including results. And what is the upside? Even his devotees only claim he can become a decent five - that's at best. Cappy is toast and he pretty much was before the injury. Holding on to them makes no sense. What is the point of running Bush out again? If the team can have a game where they hit double digits or maybe only come close, the Brewers can win. Otherwise they won't.

[Ennder]

Marquis was toast before last year. Doug Davis was toast before last year. Carlos Silva was toast before last year. Josh Beckett was toast before last year. Mark Buehrle was toast before last year. Javier Vazquez was toast before last year. Tim Judson was toast before last year. Joe Blanton was toast before last year. All of those guys had 4.80+ ERA in 2006. If you are going to use ERA as your lead indicator you will be a bad GM pure and simple. There is no reason to expect Bush and Capuano to be anything worse than #4 type starters going into this year. That has nothing to do with Melvin being a bad GM.

 

Sorry but I'm a stickler for statistics, Bush should be a mid to high 4 ERA type and Capuano should be a mid low to mid 4 ERA type given how they pitched last year. Any GM with a brain realizes this and projected them as such. I cannot blame Melvin at all for assuming at least one of them pans out as the #4 or #5 starter on the team with one of the young guys filling in at as the other one.

[pete]

Woah, now they're #4 type starters. Wow.

 

Not that it matters, but you just invented an argument for me before you mightily struck it down.

 

I doubt Cappy will ever do much in MLB and not because of his arm although that might be the excuse given. Bush is winding down as well.

 

So what is the answer to how long pitchers have to perform badly before a GM lets there be an open competition for their positions on the team?

[Ennder]

I have no clue what you just said but I'd say by ERA they would have to at least post back to back bad years and by peripherals at least one bad year. Any GM worth having on the team is going to downplay ERA and look at deeper stats first and know that ERA is just highly variable.

[danzig6767]

I don't think Melvin has done a poor job in his time here, but his reputation IMO is somewhat bigger than what's he's done overall since becoming our GM.