J.J. Hardy: How far has he fallen?

[berniebrewer4life]

Honestly, i thought last year was a bit of a fluke. I figure he would revert to "Rally Killer"(as my girlfriend and i dubbed him) Hardy from a few years ago. Hopefully he comes back and hits around 15 hrs a year, which would be very respectable IMO, but i doubt it.

[TooLiveBrew]

All he has to do to get 15 this season is hit 14 over roughly 110-120 remaining games. That's really quite plausible.

[brewizard]

For whatever it is worth, JJ leads the NL in fielding percentage at SS for those who've started 25 or more games - and that includes now-injured golden-boy Tulo.

 

It just seems to me that batting 8th, JJ has been seeing very few fastballs. I remember reading somewhere that his homerun spurt came off a lot of fastballs (pitchers challenging him) before the league learned he was a decent fastball hitter. Since the steady supply of fastballs has been cut off, JJ Hardy doesn't seem to hit as much.

[hauser42]

Hardy is never going to be known for his stick. He should hit around 260-270 range each year with 15 -20 HRs.

 

Hardy makes it on his solid defense. Solid range, cannon arm and playing in the right spots is what his game is.

 

Escobar is maybe a better defense of player, but with his weak stick he is not going to be a better player. Escobar is a trade bait to get a player near a deadline ala Mr Inman last year.

 

Billy Hall's free swinging ways are going to put up power numbers and kill many chances for runs with three big swings of breeze.

[silversurferr]

Bill Schroeder keeps commenting that Hardy's shoulder is bothering him, which is affecting his ability to pull the ball.

[thebruce44]

First of all, I will say that JJ has always been my favorite player since he was in the low minors. Second, I have always been calling him VaJJ just because its funny, but thats besides my main point.

 

I think Hardy is a very good player who has had a string of bad luck and freak injuries that have limited his effectiveness. His rookie year, he started playing well once he trusted his shoulder. The next year he started hot but hurt his ankel. Last year he busted out even hotter (MVP type hot) but fell off probably due to not having played a full meaningful season ever.

 

This year, he gets the flu and looses 10 lbs right before the season starts. For a guy that usually starts hot and uses those first months to boost his overall stats, that could be a major reason for his current decline. I could see him becoming a very good player when he is finally healthy and used to playing a full season at a very demanding position.

 

Sure it sounds like I am making excuses, but the flashes have been there and he has had a lot working against him (more than Weeks). I think he will still turn into the star I thought he would be at some point, but probably just for a few years.

[piccione88]

I do not think that Escobar is trade bait in the eyes of the front office. Gord Ash seems to have a man crush on him. As for Hardy I see him as around average to above average offensivley for a shortstop. The average line for a shortstop is .266/.324/.401. JJ should be able to produce something around that consistently. The problem in my eyes is that he is not a good option at shortstop. Yes he has a great glove, and a strong arm with good accuracy, but he does not have the range to be considered a good shortstop. He simply does not hit well enough to be put at third which is probably the best place for him.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I would consider Hardy as trade bait more than Escobar. Escobar is our future SS. Hardy is future trade bait cause he'll be more expensive.

[ozzybourne]

The average line for a shortstop is .266/.324/.401. JJ should be able to produce something around that consistently.

how do yo rate bill hall's year at shortstop compared to hardy?

 

 

(edit: long quote --1992)

[piccione88]

I am assuming you mean 2006, when Hall hit 35 homeruns with a line of .270/.345/.553. He played better defense at short that year than Hardy has in my opinion. An .899 OPS from a shortstop is insane, to put it into perspective Jimmy Rollins won the MVP with a line of .296/.344/.531. It would be unwise in my opinion to expect Hall to put up those numbers again, but still to move him off of short after that year really upset me.

[Gopher74]

Hall is fine he will never hit over .260 unless it is a career year. He will hit 25-30 HR's a year though. Hardy will be lucky to hit 20 ever again in his career.

Then he's already had two career years. You can't say he's never going to hit over .260 when his career average is over .260 and he hit .254 last year in what many considered to be an awful year.

As for Hardy, it's 5 weeks into the season. It's a touch early to say that he's "fall" so far. Everyone's struggling right now.

 

Hardy's 2nd half also wasn't nearly as bad as people seem to suggest.

.292/.312/.509 in August last year

.280/.314/.430 in Sept last year.

[Gopher74]

He's still a terrible OBA guy, just as I stated before the season.

 

I would like to add that I should really cut Hardy some slack, as I think he's one of the players thats been hurt the most by Yost's abbrasive personality, as suggested last season by Tony Graffinino. Hardy will likely show some improvement when Yost gets fired.

Care to explain that? I don't understand where you get that Yost has an abrasive personality as related to his players as most have said the opposite, or how him not being there would help Hardy? I'm just curious as to where that comes from. I think too much is laid at the feet of one Mr. Ned Yost when in reality, some of the problems with this team he has absolutely nothing to do with.

 

And I also don't recall anyone saying that he was a good OBP guy. I think it's been known since he came up that he's been a poor OBP guy.

 

[Never Outhustled]

I don't understand where you get that Yost has an abrasive personality as related to his players as most have said the opposite, or how him not being there would help Hardy? I'm just curious as to where that comes from. I think too much is laid at the feet of one Mr. Ned Yost when in reality, some of the problems with this team he has absolutely nothing to do with.

The dugout fight the Brewers had last year started when Tony Graffanino told Yost to lay off Hardy, as Yost was riding Hardy in the dugout after a misplay in the field. Estrada later explained that some of the veteran players needed to stick up for the youngsters, because Yost rode them constantly. I'm was shocked a bigger issue wasn't made about this at the time, and it certainly seems it still a problem.

 

 

And I also don't recall anyone saying that he was a good OBP guy. I think it's been known since he came up that he's been a poor OBP guy.

TooLiveBrew and myself had a long discusion about Hardy in the "lineup thread" where he predicted Hardy would have a huge jump in OBA this year.

[Ennder]

Hardy will eventually put up OBP's around .350 in my opinion. I agree with thebruce44 completely, Hardy has had a lot of rough breaks that have suppressed his overall numbers. I'd add that he played through injury problems mid season last year too. The real question is whether or not he is capable of staying healthy for a full season or not and if he can make adjustments to where he is isn't a miserable hitter when he has minor injuries.

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't recall saying anything about a "huge jump". But I do think he's going to improve his BBs & OBP. Ennder predicted a nice increase from Hardy's OBP in the offseason, but I never read anything about a huge jump.

[MattFlair]

Our shortstops this year have posted a .306/.277/.583 line for the year good for 23rd best in the majors, while thirdbase has posted .313/.447/.760 good for 15th.

 

While the third base obp is far too low it would look like shortstop is a larger area of concern at the moment than 3b. Perhaps moving Hall back there could be benifitial to the offense.

[BrewCrewForever]

As far as I'm concerned Hardy may still be a hit with the female fans, but personally I can't wait till Escobar is big league ready. JJ is destined to be known as that "hottie" that all the women liked and nothing more.

 

http://static.flickr.com/61/202902324_da0c803381_o.jpg

Dude instead of bar hoping, work on hitting something other then a fastball up and in.

[TooLiveBrew]

Is that analysis based on more than his 2008 line? I think if you look at his whole career (yes, minor leagues count), I don't think you can say that with any amount of certainty.

[danzig6767]

I question that Hardy can be a .350 OBP guy because i don't see Hardy being able to generally hit for a high enough average. He hit .277 last year and my guess is that's around his ceiling batting average wise, but he'll more often hit around .245-.265 and he won't walk enough to get on base at a .350 clip with that low of a batting average.

 

On the home run front, Hardy has the power to hit 20-25 homers each year, but i doubt he has the hitting skill to match the power he has.

[Ennder]

As far as I'm concerned Hardy may still be a hit with the female fans, but personally I can't wait till Escobar is big league ready. JJ is destined to be known as that "hottie" that all the women liked and nothing more.

I don't see any reason to think Escobar will ever be better than Hardy. This is one of those things that just mistifies me, Escobar is empty AVG and that is it. Hardy is an ok BB rate and decent SLG with mediocre AVG. I'd expect Hardy to be a good .050 better than Escobar in OPS and Escobar to be a below average major league SS. He is backup type player.

 

 

(removed picture from quote --1992)

[kramnoj]

I'd expect Hardy to be a good .050 better than Escobar in OPS and Escobar to be a below average major league SS. He is backup type player.

 

Escobar may well be a below average major league SS, but that doesn't mean he is a backup. There have to be below average players starting in the majors. In 2010 when Hardy is expected to make $6 million or more the Brewers may decide they can live with a below average SS and want to spend money elsewhere on the team.

[Ennder]

That most certainly could be true. I think Escobar will end up a Brewer at some point and Weeks or Hardy will end up on another team, I just can't get excited about Escobar who to me is Jack Wilson only younger.

[kramnoj]

That most certainly could be true. I think Escobar will end up a Brewer at some point and Weeks or Hardy will end up on another team, I just can't get excited about Escobar who to me is Jack Wilson only younger.

 

I've been thinking about starting a thread predicting the 2010 Brewers. There are so many variables that it would be impossible for me to do a good job, but I wanted to get a sense of what our young players will be making in a couple of years, and how that is going to affect roster construction. I don't envy the choices Melvin will have to make over the next couple of years.