Will the Brewers Get Over .500 Again in 2008?

[sheethead]

A change of scenery always sounds good when things are not going well. Maybe the players need to be traded for a change of scenery.

Or maybe they just need a better leader.

 

[rluzinski]

On the hitters, would you really rule out the possibility that a new manager couldn't make a difference?

 

I wouldn't rule anything out. I just would find it highly unlikely that Yost is somehow contributing to the collective offensive slump. The only thing Yost appears to be good at are the type of intangibles which might help with the psyche of his players, IMO. Heck, we could say that Yost has finally taught the batters to be clutch and at least do well with RISP. I think that's nonesense but if we want to crucify him for some things, shouldn't we praise him for that fact? I doubt he has any significant effect either way, however.

 

And again, my point isn't that I don't think Yost has any negative effect on the team. I think his in-game management is generally garbage (although I don't think it works out to nearly many losses as some suggest). Compared to the other WOAHS right now , what Yost is doing is pretty insignificant, IMO.

[sheethead]

The only thing Yost appears to be good at are the type of intangibles which might help with the psyche of his players, IMO.

 

I have heard this from others as well. Do we really know he is good at the intangibles and directing player psyches? Cause if he is not at least great in this area, I don't see how keeping him around is helping this team. And from my seat, he doesn't appear to be great in this area. But then again, I am not in the clubhouse witnessing the speeches and one on ones. I can only believe the players have tuned him out, IMO.

[rluzinski]

I have heard this from others as well. Do we really know he is good at the intangibles and directing player psyches?

 

Of course we don't really know but the players seem to like him and always seem to say the right things about knowing it's a long season, showing unwavering confidence in themselves, etc... I don't think that's worth too much personally but others seem to. I just think that if you wanted to try and blame a manager for an entire team not being able to hit or pitch, Yost wouldn't be a very good candidate.

[rluzinski]

Well, that didn't take very long. 18.4% proven wrong. Let's hope 50% more (which includes me) is proven wrong before the season is up.

 

Long season, people.

[owbc]

I'm starting to think that this has nothing to do with Yost/Gallardo/momentum after all.

 

We stink on the road.

 

We win at home.

 

Nothing more to it.

[sheethead]

I am very, very glad I am in the proven wrong group. And Ned seems to have answered the call the past few days. I will lay off until the next 6 game losing streak, if it happens (and I hope NOT).

[rluzinski]

I'm starting to think that this has nothing to do with Yost/Gallardo/momentum after all.

 

We stink on the road.

 

We win at home.

 

Nothing more to it.

 

Or maybe there isn't some artificially simple explanation? Naaaa.

 

I blame late episodes of Cheers!

[owbc]

I blame the talk radio, the Internet, and ESPN.

[BuckyTuba]

please eat crow 18.4%. love, buckytuba (keeping bfan.net beautiful still!)

[hawing]

I'm starting to think that this has nothing to do with Yost/Gallardo/momentum after all.

 

We stink on the road. We win at home. Nothing more to it.

I'm going to with a little from column A (momentum) and a little from column B (moderate history of sucking on the road). We'll find out more soon enough.

[mikerollins]

I don't know what's more shocking...the fact that this poll was even started after a tough road trip to dip below .500?

 

Or the fact that 19% of the posters on this board actually thought the brewers wouldnt see .500 again?

 

I don't know what makes me keep coming back to this board, but I do. It must be the crazy fans who panic everytime a baseball team hits a bit of a skid during a 162 game season.

 

The over-under on number of times a similar type of poll is started this season.....claiming the season is a lost one......is 3....and I'll take the over. Once in June, Once in August...and twice in September.

[valpocrewsader]

Ah yes, time to pile on and condescend to the pessimists on the board. Right on cue.

[mikerollins]

Ah yes, time to pile on and condescend to the pessimists on the board. Right on cue.

Well seriously..with a team THIS talented..to actual post a poll wondering if the we'd see .500 again after dipping 1 game below after a tough 9 game road trip.....

 

We were just asking for people to say "haha told you so."

 

To post this poll when it was posted was stupid at best, but more likely idiotic. Of course they were going to see .500 again.

[hawing]

To post this poll when it was posted was stupid at best, but more likely idiotic. Of course they were going to see .500 again.

Calling the posting of this poll 'stupid' or 'idiotic' is condescending and unwelcome here.

 

I consider myself an optimist, or at least a hopeful fan; yet for parts of last week, "16-146" loomed in my head - even though I knew that was all but impossible.

 

This board has thousands of members - some generally pessimistic, some generally optimistic - and no one is immune to an occasional crossover. We expect everyone on this forum to tolerate opinions they don't share.

[cnycerveceros]

I consider myself an optimist, or at least a hopeful fan; yet for parts of last week, "16-146" loomed in my head - even though I knew that was all but impossible.

I thought they might find a way to take wins away from the Brewers!

[monty57]

I suggest a new poll: When the Brewers have a tough stretch, should we (A) Read & think about what rluzinski's saying or (B) Jump off the highest building

 

I was, however impressed that it took two posts before this turned into another "Fire Ned Yost" thread.

[RightFieldCoder]

Jump, Jump, Jump!

 

After we fire Ned, After we fire Ned, After we fire Ned!

 

Why be sane?

[rluzinski]

Pessimist? Optimist? Is it OK just to try and answer sports related questions objectively?

For this poll, unless you thought the Brewers were a truly horrible team, it wasn't realistic to have expected them to never get over .500 again during ANY point of the remainder of the season. Remember, that's a very different question than asking if a team will FINISH over .500. A "true" .500 team (as in actual talent, not current record) that starts the season 16-17 would be hard pressed not to briefly stumble over .500 over the remaining 129 games, wouldn't they? Let's take a quick look.

Not sure what the "right" way to calculate this is (in contrast, calculating the odds to finish the season with a certain record is pretty straight forward), so I just simulated it, giving the Brewers exactly the same chance of winning each of their remaining 129 games. I kept lowering the team's "true talent" until it was more likely not to ever go over .500 at any point:

http://i27.tinypic.com/20pv5l3.jpg

If I'm doing this correctly (as always, I appreciate people keeping me honest) if you thought the Brewers were basically a .500 team going forward, while they would have only a 43% chance of finishing over .500, they would have a 85.5% chance of being over .500 at some point over their remaining 129 games. They would have to be a true 67 win team before it would be more likely that they never get over .500.

 

Either fans were weighing the 6 game losing streak too heavily when trying to estimate the true talent of the team or they didn't realize how easy it is for even a bad team to stumble over .500 at some point is. Probably a little of both.

[monty57]

I generally try to remain level-headed about things, even though it's not always easy. I enjoy reading your posts because whether people are being overly positive or overly negative, you tend to do your best to present facts. Over time, things with long-term trend lines tend to revert to the mean... gas prices will come back down, the stock market will go back up, we will eventually have sunny 80 degree days this year, and the Brewers will win a few more games this season.

[TooLiveBrew]

Is it OK just to try and answer sports related questions objectively?

 

http://www.sandersartstudio.com/catalog/VerdictFirstSentenceAfterwards.jpg

Off wit' his head!