Is Gagne getting squeezed?

[jwill535]

The strike zone varies by hitter.

Just to point out, but by the definition of the rule the strike zone varies from batter to batter due to different sized players. Now if you are saying that the high/low strike gets called on one player vs another then i am on board with that.

 

[TooLiveBrew]

What a forgiving board. Five blown saves and his successes were dicey propositions. All parts of the order make good contact and he doesn't get ahead of people. But sure, bad luck, bad calls, fogged goggles, etc.

 

Results oftentimes don't tell you if a guy was pitching well or poorly. The outings in which Gagne has actually pitched poorly, as opposed to getting poor results, have been very, very few this season.

[sgtcluels]

Anyone have PitchFX data on the last Gagne outing? Did the Strike zone infact shrink?

[Bring Back the Stein]

What a forgiving board. Five blown saves and his successes were dicey propositions. All parts of the order make good contact and he doesn't get ahead of people. But sure, bad luck, bad calls, fogged goggles, etc.

 

Results oftentimes don't tell you if a guy was pitching well or poorly. The outings in which Gagne has actually pitched poorly, as opposed to getting poor results, have been very, very few this season.

Well, we'll see what team picks him up next year based on his performance versus his results. At least Gagne has owned his mistakes and I suppose it's Yost's job to protect him from dyspeptic, irrational fans like me.

[Crewin06]

Correct me if I am wrong on this but I also remember Darren and Bill talking about how Gagne was up for the fifth day in a row warming up in the St. Louis series after the 4 straight appearances and 64 pitches in the St. Louis/ Cincinatti run . Then he went out and pitched the following day and blew another save on his sixth day up and throwing.

[splitterpfj]

Gagne has had two horrible outings, and has otherwise pitched very well. He's had two "blown saves" that never should have been, on a bad throw Weeks and a blown call yesterday, otherwise he's allowed a solo homer this season.

 

Two terrible outings, not five, not most of them, not even a lot of them - two.

[TooLiveBrew]

The point is that he's doing well on the things over which he has control. The BS from yesterday's game is a perfect example of how using that stat can be misleading. Eric pitched well, and got burned on a strange tight strike zone, a badly missed call at 1B (the Weeks play from the hole), and some good ol' fashioned bad luck. Over the course of the season, his luck will even itself out, and he should surpass 40 saves with ease -- but that won't necessarily tell you how well he pitched. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

If Gagne can keep pitching as well as he has, the breaks will go with him too every now & again. It's just been (imo) a bunch of strange results for him thus far, btw. getting squeezed & other odd scenarios. If he were not pitching well, I certainly wouldn't have any reason to defend him or expect him to get better. And to be honest, I don't expect that he's going to get any better than he has been, I just am confident that he won't continue to have this ridiculously fluky bad luck. It really has been an extreme grouping of odd results for Eric so far.

[Fatter than Joey]

If he were not pitching well, I certainly wouldn't have any reason to defend him or expect him to get better.

 

He really isn't pitching "well" though -- at least in a relative sense to pitchers at his level. He has walked 10 dudes in 14 IP, and already given up 4 HRs, which is more than he gave up in 2007.

 

I certainly understand there have been some bad calls and bad luck, but I am not holding my breath that we are going to see sustained periods of "well".

 

The big difference I have noticed between this year and last year, is that when he gets behind 1-0 -- he is giving up a lot of hits and walks.

[TooLiveBrew]

He really isn't pitching "well" though -- at least in a relative sense to pitchers at his level. He has walked 10 dudes in 14 IP, and already given up 4 HRs, which is more than he gave up in 2007.

 

But that's what I'm talking about -- you can't always use results to accurately depict a player. Gagne has been squeezed big time in at least two of his appearances so far, and one of those HR was to Paul 'I can't believe I actually hit a HR on that crap' Bako. That Bako HR was an out in well over 75% of MLB parks. So far, Gagne's results have not matched his stuff. He's been better than I was expecting, to be honest. I thought he was going to be an all-or-nothing kind of player, and so far Eric has been very consistent (imo)

 

I don't disagree with your notion that Gagne is not going to be lights-out this season, but we don't need him to be (imo). I think as long as he can continue to consistently have his best stuff, that the results will regress back up towards the mean.

[bobbledude25]

No he's not getting squeezed. Hitters are forcing him to throw strikes and he can not consistently do it. Many are waiting until they have two strikes and then they tee-off. As soon as we signed this guy and I saw his baggy clothes at the press conference I knew we were in big trouble. And they say steroids dont help. ha ha ha ha

 

Oh and when he is actually converting saves do you see who he is facing? More often then not it's the bottom of the order

[rluzinski]

Anyone have PitchFX data on the last Gagne outing? Did the Strike zone infact shrink?

 

According to pitch f/x, those two outside pitches could have easily been called a strike. They could have also both easily been called a ball as well, though (they were right on the line). You just hope the calls even out and obviously, they didn't during that AB.

 

Personally, I'm sick of games being decided by the the subjective calls of the officials. Maybe it's time to ***GASP** realize we are in the 21st century and use some actual technology to improve the accuracy of these calls? Naaaa. Basball was perfected a century ago!

 

Gagne currently has a 6.68 FIP, which only looks at strikeouts, walks and HRs. I'm not sure that I would say that he's pitched well so far even after taking out some unlucky bounces. Andf even if those 4 HRs are flukish as well, he's walked WAY to many batters (10 in 14-1/3 innings). I think he's better than how he's pitched but he's nothing special these days.

[Crew2323]

Oh and when he is actually converting saves do you see who he is facing? More often then not it's the bottom of the order

I think I understand what you're saying, but I don't view this as having any validity. Perhaps it would if Gagne picked whom he faces in save situations. He throws to whoever is at bat. And lets not be naive, all these players on MLB teams can hit. They have talent. Otherwise they wouldn't be there. They are professional hitters paid to get on base.

[Fatter than Joey]

But that's what I'm talking about -- you can't always use results to accurately depict a player.

 

I agree -- key word being "always" -- which means you can certainly in some cases.

 

Gagne has been squeezed big time in at least two of his appearances so far, and one of those HR was to Paul 'I can't believe I actually hit a HR on that crap' Bako.

 

"Squeezed" is a very subjective argument, and this really smacks of excuse making. There were a couple of questionable calls, but the bottom line was Gagne had to throw WAY too many pitches yesterday, he was very erratic, if he had made better pitches initially he wouldn't have left it up to the ump to make good calls. I watched the game, saw the pitches, they weren't that good.

 

As far as Bako goes, throwing a LH'd, right-armed dude like him a pitch low and inside, in the zone, was asking it to be yanked out of the park.

 

That Bako HR was an out in well over 75% of MLB parks. So far, Gagne's results have not matched his stuff.

 

You can't pitch in Petco. every day.

 

I think as long as he can continue to consistently have his best stuff, that the results will regress back up towards the mean.

 

I had a similar sort of argument about Dave Bush last year -- If Gagne continues to miss his spots he will have an ERA over 6 for the season.

[jazzytrav]

That's pretty much why I wish we could figure out who our best reliever is, pit them against the heart of the order, and get rid of this "closer" nonsense.

[TooLiveBrew]

I agree -- key word being "always" -- which means you can certainly in some cases.

And this isn't one of those cases. You're talking how many IP this season so far?

 

 

You can't pitch in Petco. every day.

 

Strawman. 75% of MLB parks (possibly more) that was a fb out.

 

 

As far as Bako goes, throwing a LH'd, right-armed dude like him a pitch low and inside, in the zone, was asking it to be yanked out of the park

 

I can't argue with the concept here, but Bako was only able to yank it about 325-330 feet. That doesn't even make the warning track in most parks.

 

 

If Gagne continues to miss his spots he will have an ERA over 6 for the season.

 

Perhaps... I just don't agree that he's "miss[ing] his spots" with the regularity that you see. No, he hasn't been stellar, but that's not what I think Gagne is capable of being.

[JJHardy7]

He really isn't pitching "well" though -- at least in a relative sense to pitchers at his level. He has walked 10 dudes in 14 IP, and already given up 4 HRs, which is more than he gave up in 2007.

 

Agreed. I'm somewhat on the fence whether Gagne is going to pan out this year yet and I've seen the good and the bad. I am surprised the support he's getting around here and I do hope you guys are right with him. If his name were Turnbow or McClung his head would have been called for a long time ago. Whether or not he's pitching well he's blown 5 saves. His job is to close games and he's not doing it. Hopefully it's bad luck or whatever you want to call it. I just don't want to hear fogged goggles or how often Gagne is used. He's going to be used to close games and if he's that fragile $10 million isn't worth it. When does Gagne not get a pass anymore? I hope it's just a bad luck stretch for him, but there comes a point and time where regardless of how well he's pitching he's just flat out not capable of being a dependable closer for the Brewers.

[Fatter than Joey]

And this isn't one of those cases. You're talking how many IP this season so far

 

16 games -- 25% of his likely season appearances. BBs/HRs are really not luck dependent. Gagne has not pitched well.

 

Strawman. 75% of MLB parks (possibly more) that was a fb out.

 

You were making excuses for Gagne, HRs are HRs regardless of where they are hit.

 

Bako was only able to yank it about 325-330 feet. That doesn't even make the warning track in most parks.

 

This isnt accurate. GABP is 325 down the line. Bako hit that ball into the 4th row, about halfway between the 370 and 325 markers. Bako probably hit that ball closer to 350 than to 325. The ball was hit pretty hard, and over Hart's head pretty quickly. Regadless of park dimensions, there is no way that ball is caught. Furthermore, Gagne gave up a HR before the HR to Bako, and a BB after it, so I don't think Gagne deserves any benefit of the doubt.

 

Also, most pitchers are able just to retire Balo without him hitting the ball to the warning track.

 

Perhaps... I just don't agree that he's "miss[ing] his spots" with the regularity that you see.

 

10 BBs and 4 HRs in 14 innings -- thats a lot of missing spots.

[TooLiveBrew]

Again, you're using results to analyze, & I'm saying the results don't match his performances & stuff to this point. If you genuinely expect Gagne to BB more than double the guys he did from last season, I can see why you're so pessimistic. I just don't think that's a very likely thing to expect.

 

BBs/HRs are really not luck dependent

They tend not to be, however, in small samples such as this one, you have to be willing to examine.

 

 

This isnt accurate. GABP is 325 down the line. Bako hit that ball into the 4th row, about halfway between the 370 and 325 markers. Bako probably hit that ball closer to 350 than to 325. The ball was hit pretty hard, and over Hart's head pretty quickly. Regadless of park dimensions, there is no way that ball is caught. Furthermore, Gagne gave up a HR before the HR to Bako, and a BB after it, so I don't think Gagne deserves any benefit of the doubt.

 

I certainly don't remember that ball getting to the 4th row, but this debate is certainly not very important. I guess if you consider stating the obvious (the Bako HR was a HR only bc it was hit in GABP) making excuses, then yes, that's what I did. Just for example's sake, a 335' shot was an out in Wrigley, Bush, & MP. It was possibly an out at PNC, but might have hit off that extended RF wall. It was probably a HR in MM Park, and obviously was one in GABP.

[Fatter than Joey]

Again, you're using results to analyze, & I'm saying the results don't match his performances & stuff to this point.

 

This is true -- however, I fail to see where your conclusions have any merit at all. We aren't talking about seeing eye grounders here, I am primarily talking about BBs and HRs. If you give you 10 BBs and 4 HRs in 14 IP -- you will have a big ERA and lots of BS's -- I would say his results exactly match his performances.

 

If you genuinely expect Gagne to BB more than double the guys he did from last season, I can see why you're so pessimistic. I just don't think that's a very likely thing to expect.

 

He's already given up more HRs in 2008 than he did in 2007. He walked 21 batters last year, he's already walked 10 -- I think 40 BBs if he keeps pitching the way he is, is a very realistic proposition.

 

They tend not to be, however, in small samples such as this one, you have to be willing to examine.

 

Small sample arguments only hold water in stats that are rates or averages.

 

I certainly don't remember that ball getting to the 4th row

 

It did -- watch the replay on MLB.com

 

I guess if you consider stating the obvious (the Bako HR was a HR only bc it was hit in GABP) making excuses, then yes, that's what I did.

 

It is not obvious, it is inaccurate. That HR Bako hit would have been a HR in a lot of parks, and there isn't a RFer that would have caught that ball -- at a minimum that would have been a 2b.

[TooLiveBrew]

Well I can't get that video clip to work... will take your word on the HR distance. I still think you're placing far too much stock in a really small sample, and I have no idea how you can just dismiss his BB total to this point as somehow not being part of a small sample -- which it most certainly is.

 

In his first 8 appearances this season, Gagne walked 2 batters. In his most recent 8, he's walked 8 men. Now if you're convinced that you've uncovered some kind of trend, I can't do much if anything to dissuade you. However, I just don't see anything more than 8 or so IP being blown out of proportion. If Gagne were just wild out on the mound with his stuff, I would most certainly agree with you. But he's had some really bad luck with umpiring so far, both behind the plate & in the field. Gagne has certainly not been as sloppy as you're portraying here... which is why the small sample is problematic imo. Has he been perfect or nearly? No -- but I've felt like I have to emphasize that I'm not arguing he has been.

 

I just think it's very common for people to observe the most recent results, and project a sort of long-term meaning to them. A 3-BB night game like he had last time out skews things so heavily at this early point in the season. When Gagne goes out there with another good stretch of low BB totals (say, 3 in 10 games), everything that's getting argued against him here could be argued in the reverse, with just as inaccurate of conclusions. I don't think 8 BBs in 8 games (particularly with 3 in one strange outing in which there was certainly much more at play than just Gagne's stuff/control) tells you anything more than that he had a rough stretch. It doesn't indicate anything more or less than the 2 BBs in his first 8 games.

[logan82]

In my opinion, Gagne has been pretty sketchy so far. He hasn't really shown good control in any outing so far.

[Fatter than Joey]

If Gagne were just wild out on the mound with his stuff, I would most certainly agree with you. But he's had some really bad luck with umpiring so far, both behind the plate & in the field.

 

He has not had good command this year -- since we are talking about BBs and HRs, bad luck in the field is entirely irrelevant. Claiming he has had bad luck with umpiring is a poor argument, and unless you have some sort of non-empirical evidence I would be inclined to entirely dismiss your claim that he has been unlucky with umps.

 

I just think it's very common for people to observe the most recent results, and project a sort of long-term meaning to them.

 

Huh?! -- Who is projecting anything? I took issue with your statements that "Gagne has pitched well" and "Gagne's results do not match his performance" -- I have never tried to make any sort of long term projections other than if he keeps giving up 10 BBs+4HRs every 14IP he will continue rack up the ERA and BS's.

 

Gagne has not pitched well so far this year, and if he doesn't pitch better (less walks and HRs), he will be getting a lot of heat.

 

You can't take some sort of statistical high-ground and lecture about small samples -- yet use arguments like "bad umping" as it has some merit.

[Cypus28]

http://baseball.bornbybits.com/php/combined_tool.php?pit=150378&bat=0&type=-1&result=0&count=-1&r_spd=1&spd=-1&r_brx=1&brx=-100&r_brz=1&brz=-100&l_b=0

 

 

That is a link to the Pitch f/x data of all Gagne's called balls so far this year.

 

I'm not sure how updated or accurate that is. It's just something i came across googling.

[eanelson4]

Well, from what I have seen so far this year, I would have no problem if Yost stopped giving him the ball. It doesn't appear that he can throw the strikes he needs when necessary to keep guys on the edge, thinking that he might put one across the plate for once. They are just sitting back, letting his changeup ride out of the zone for ball 4, letting the guy behind them dunk a single in there to get them around to score.

 

That being said, it will be interesting to see if he can pull it all together (which I would love) because the last thing the brewers need is a $10 million pile of junk. Remember that Joe Nathan is making just under $12 million/year. I understand that we pay a premium because we are renting him for a year, but still, on a team with an $83 million payroll, a guy that chews up 1/8 of that should be DEPENDABLE, which Gagne certainly hasn't been.

 

Does I think Gagne flat out stinks? No, he just isn't worth the $10 million we are paying him.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

In other news, Melvin released a statement to the JS that Gagne isn't in danger of losing his job as of now.