Brantley Walks

[Tbadder]

Holy Moly. I was just looking over this guy's last 138 games. 75 walks and only 54 strike outs? Geesh, how often does this happen in the minors; it's gotta be almost non-existent in the majors (though I'm totally guessing here). Plus 42 steals and 11 caught stealing. Is he a serious threat to be the Brewer's lead-off man of the future? Is there anyway he can be a centerfielder? 75 walks and only 54 strike outs--that's stupid good for a 20 year old, right?

[DrWood]

yeah, it's "stupid good". Not only is he the youngest guy in Huntsville, only one guy at Brevard is younger, and I think it's by a few months. My hope is he is the CF-leadoff hitter of the future, though it's possible he could be displaced by Ford a year or two later.

He still needs to develop more power, which is possible given his youth.

I think he's the second best "son of a major leaguer" in the system.

[Ando Calrissian]

It seems to me that Brantley (perhaps minus a little bit of speed and arm strength) is very nearly the type of hitter that many Gwynn Jr. supporters want him to be. I understand the significance of improved slugging, but it is very, very easy to get excited about Brantley's future. I guess my question about Brantley with regard to his power development is: is he the type of hitter that hits enough line drives where he could develop solid gap power vs. home run power? I'm pretty fine with Brantley not hitting homers so long as he could develp doubles power which would look pretty nice at the top of the Milwaukee lineup in a few years.

Here's another question. I'm just going to assume that Brantley will never be a home run threat, but, what then is an acceptable SLG % or quanitity of extra base hits that could earn him a starting stop in the big leagues? Twenty doubles and a .400 SLG?

Also, I'd assume that even though he could turn out to be a very low SLG guy, yet a high OBP guy, does put added pressure on him to become a top notch defensive player just to keep his overall value up?

[shelmark]

So where does that put LaPorta or Iribarren if you have Brantley or Ford in the OF? This isn't slow pitch softball. Good problem to have for the future. Very possible LaPorta could be used to bring in some pitching.

[Ando Calrissian]

I keep thinking about that possibility too, Shelmark. That's only possible however, if we find someone else to play CF next year as I'd be quite surprised if the Brewers pushed Brantley that hard (simply due to his extremely young age). LaPorta being traded is a possibility. If Taylor Green proves his bat, it seems the Brewers are comfortable with his defense which could also make Gamel a trading piece especially as it's a bit of a question mark as to whether or not Gamel will stick at 3B. I do think however, that management is going to give Gamel every conceivable chance to stick at 3B which is why, even though he carries a mighty stick, that he will not be rushed throug the minors.

 

There's part of me that feels like the organization is moving into a new phase since Melvin took over that we've maybe not experienced before (or at least in a very long time or in my lifetime) which is: this is where we see the added benefit of a great farm system to improve the major league club and use major and minor leaguers to replenish the farm system. Simply put, there's a lot of talent in the Milwaukee organization, both in the majors and in the minors that will continue to help keep the organization on the right track.

[uwisfan]

LaPorta played 1B in college, and Prince is on track to price himself out of Milwaukee. Would seem to make more sense to trade Prince in 2010 for those pitching prospects and move LaPorta to first..

[Ando Calrissian]

No doubt, uwisfan, Prince's trade value will be (is) huge. At this point in the organization, I find it really hard to speculate about how this will all play out.

[pogokat]

Brantley needs to slug .400 or so to place himself to be an mlb regular in the outfield and he needs to stick in CF...if he can be a .300/.400/.400 guy in cf, then he'll be a starter...so his defense needs to be good...without any power aat all, he needs to stick at a premium defensive position...he doesn't have the glove of ford or cain, but he is certainly a more professional hitter...

 

what makes him odd is that his lack of power is very hard to project...right now he appears to be somwhere in betweeen jason tyner and luis castillo...watching the brewers with TGJ is probably a decentt corollary, though Brantley is a better hitter without the glove of Gwynn...

 

he needs more power to be an above average starter...because MLB pitchers turn guys like Brantley into Juan Pierre when they reuse to walk people...Brantley will get plenty of strikes in the majors..

[battlekow]

To put Brantley's age in perspective, the following players are older than Michael Brantley. All are prospects to varying degrees and all are at or below Brantley's level:

 

Zelous Wheeler (120 days, -2 levels)

Alcides Escobar (150 days, same level)

Taylor Green (192 days, -1 level)

Jonathan Lucroy (336 days, -2 levels)

Angel Salome (341 days, same level)

Lorenzo Cain (397 days, -1 level)

Eric Farris (438 days, -2 levels)

Mike Ramlow (439 days, -2 levels)

Mark Rogers (470 days, -1 level)

Dan Merklinger (573 days, -2 levels)

Steve Chapman (580 days, -1 level)

Charlie Fermaint (581 days, -1 level)

Darren Ford (591 days, -1 level)

Mat Gamel (658 days, same level)

Omar Aguilar (775 days, -1 level)

Michael Bell (776 days, same level)

Chris Errecart (823 days, same level)

Matt LaPorta (857 days, same level)

Josh Butler (885 days, -1 level)

Robert Hinton (1005 days, same level)

Cole Gillespie (1059 days, same level)

Chris Cody (1224 days, -1 level)

Dave Johnson (1724 days, same level)

Steve Hammond (1841 days, same level)

Derek Miller (2014 days, same level)

 

Only two players on Brevard County, Alex Periard (31 days) and Zach Braddock (100 days) are younger.

[sbrylski]

what makes him odd is that his lack of power is very hard to project...right now he appears to be somwhere in betweeen jason tyner and luis castillo...watching the brewers with TGJ is probably a decentt corollary, though Brantley is a better hitter without the glove of Gwynn...

 

he needs more power to be an above average starter...because MLB pitchers turn guys like Brantley into Juan Pierre when they reuse to walk people...Brantley will get plenty of strikes in the majors..

I know they were only indirect/partial comparisons, but...

 

1.) Brantley's youth lends itself well to expect a bit more power as he rises in the organization, something that couldn't be said of the older (relative to level) Gwynn.

2.) Brantley walks and makes excellent contact. I think he projects much better to the major leagues because of that - if he maintains both skill sets as he moves up, he'll either get his OBP either way he can. Gwynn, on the other hand, has been a srikeout guy (16.1% minor league SO rate to Brantley's 11.5%), and Pierre was never much a walker at any time - those are the holes that kill their big league projection as much or more than a lack of power, IMO.

Gwynn "forces" discipline and just ends up striking out more, while Pierre just swings at whatever and makes good contact. Brantley is truly the most disciplined of the three as shown by K/BB ratio, and also has the ability to make great contact. He's very exciting.

[pogokat]

oh im not doubting that he's exciting...its just very hard to project him and temper your enthusiasm at the same time...

 

i doubt he sees the majors until 2010 though, so he should have plenty of time to develop power...which begs the question: Did the Brewers skip him over BC because they didn't want the powerless hitter in a powerless environment?

 

He should play all of this season in AA and then at least one full season in AAA...but he could be at AAA for a few years because he's definitely behind Laporta and the guys in the majors on the outfield depth chart...and he's considerably younger than everyone as battlekow mentioned above..

[Ando Calrissian]

That very well could be the case Pogo, but then why have him skip A+? To challenge him at a younger age?

I guess that with the status of the major league club, perhaps with the exception or any young pitchers that might fly up the ranks, the Brewers are really and truly in a position of not needing to rush prospects to the bigs to shore up the major league squad. You may be right, perhaps Brantley will spend multiple seasons at AAA. If the intention becomes to have him serve as a leadoff hitter and CF, I'd imagine that they're going to get him as many reps in the minors as possible while they've got the time

Also, I think that sbryliski06's observations were interesting. I tried to find Pierre's minor league numbers earlier today to make the comparison but failed in my quest. If Brantley is a more of a line drive type hitter instead of a slap hitter, I could see him developing a bit more power. I'd really love to see him play to get more of an idea about him. Of all our minor league prospects, I think I find him the most intriguing, not because I think he's our best prospect, but because he is a bit of a projection quandry due to his interesting skills.

[battlekow]

Pierre's MiLB numbers. Career, he hit .330/.377/.392 in the minors, so he always had a poor walk rate.

[battlekow]

Hey, Brantley got a double tonight.

[Ando Calrissian]

Woo hoo! Keep it up Michael!

[pogokat]

I think Brantley skipped A+ for several reasons

 

1. He is a more advanced hitter than cain/chapman/ford/fermaint

 

2. there was little reason to send him to a place where he'd have even less power

 

3. they were ready to challenge him at a higher level and there was no where to put him in A+

 

and he's definitely going to send a couple more years in the minors because he's not better than the options in the majors...who will be there for awhile...and they shouldn't trade any of the guys ahead of him until he is more of a sure thing..

[DHonks]

Brantley needs to slug .400 or so to place himself to be an mlb regular in the outfield and he needs to stick in CF...if he can be a .300/.400/.400 guy in cf, then he'll be a starter...

Pogo, if Brantley can play good defense in CF, hit .300, and be on base at least 40% of the time, he won't just be a starter, he'll be a perenial all-star

[rotoherb]

If you want a Brewer comp, his minor league numbers remind me of Darryl Hamilton's, though Hamilton was a few years older at each level. Hamilton had a few decent years, but the lack of power always kept him from taking it to the next level. I like Brantley, but he HAS to be able to play CF at a decent level in order to be a starter in the majors.

[battlekow]

He could be Roy Thomas.

[pogokat]

Dhonks---

 

That's definitely true... but we both know his obp won't stay that high if his slugging dips below .400

[ILuvDaBush]

Is he a latter-day Sean Burroughs, without the acclaim and fanfare? And Little League World Series Title...

[battlekow]

Pogo, that's not necessarily true. Luis Castillo and Jason Kendall come to mind as players who were able to sustain high OBPs with <.400 SLG. For example:

 

.301/.391/.374 - Luis Castillo 2005

.319/.399/.390 - Jason Kendall 2004

 

Other recent seasons:

 

.293/.391/.344 - Reggie Willits 2007

.314/.381/.394 - Jose Vidro 2007

.295/.394/.382 - Rafael Furcal 2000

.300/.380/.398 - Fernando Vina 2000

[JoeHova]

I'm afraid of this. Their numbers are eerily similar even down to the Stolen Base percentages. Rexrode even played a tougher defensive position. He reached AA at the same age Brantley did (20), yet was relegated to Independent ball by the time he was 23.

[battlekow]

Joe:

 

http://forum.brewerfan.net/search.php?keywords=333290/t/DDSM-Double-Diamond-Sports-Management-.html#reply-333290

[Tbadder]

pogokat wrote:

 

That's definitely true... but we both know his obp won't stay that high if his slugging dips below .400

Just to show my ignorance: Why is this true? Weren't there plenty of major leaguers in by gone days who had miniscule SLG %s and were still viable big time players? I'm thinking about guys like Maury Wills, etc. Thanks for any explanation.