Give Counsell More Starts

[DrWood]

Give him a start a week at each 2b and SS, vs. RH pitching. maybe more than that if the brewers are facing all righties in a week.

 

and bring branyan up to get a start a week at 3b vs. righties.

 

our RH-hitting INF are doing poorly vs. RH pitching. Gotta do something. vs. lefties the brewers outhit their opponents by a sizeable margin. vs. righties, the brewers get outhit by their opponents by a sizeable margin.

[PrimeTime955]

Listen, I love Russ as much as anyone else but who's spot is he going to take? Spot of the 13th pitcher? I'll give you that but I'm just not ready to release a bullpen arm yet. I wouldn't mind if Counsell got 2 starts a week, anything more is probably too much.

[Oldcity]

Listen, I love Russ as much as anyone else but who's spot is he going to take? Spot of the 13th pitcher?

Yes...

Also I don't see the point of starting Counsell twice a week. I'd prefer they not do it and instead let guys try to work their way out of their struggles. Counsell is just fine spelling guys, but only when they need it. I don't want to see any more names pulled out of a hat to determine who's sitting.

 

[rluzinski]

What's the point of having the platoon advantage when you still can't hit with it? These samples aren't really large enough to say anything definitively but here goes:

 

Counsell (37 years old) against RH hitters from 05'-07':

 

.249/.337/.359/.696

 

Weeks (25 years old):

 

.249/.346/.404/.750

 

I like Counsell's defense over Weeks' for sure but should we really expect Counsell to outhit Weeks even with the platoon advantage? Weeks is over a decade youngber, so I think the answer is no.

 

With Hardy, you can probably make a case for it, offensively but I'd rather have Hardy's defense in there at SS, personally (I realize others aren't sold on Hardy's defense).

 

Listen, I love Russ as much as anyone else but who's spot is he going to take? Spot of the 13th pitcher?

 

That would be crazy not to have at least 13 pitchers! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif Seriously though, I'd be tempted to DFA Turnbow, send Gwynn down and bring up Dillon and Branyan. I don't mind Gwynn but the Brewers already have a light hitting LH hitter on the bench. Use Branyan primarily as a pinch hitter but give him a start once and awhile against a RH pitcher.

[bcf5575]

I am getting to the point (getting to - not there yet) where I wouldnt mind seeing Counsell batting leadoff and playing 2b instead of weeks. I was expecting big things from Rickie this year and it just isnt happening. I know its early so I havent given up on him yet - just getting frustrated.

[Oldcity]

Weeks has a .213 batting average on balls in play. He's getting really unlucky so far and hitting into a lot of hard outs.

[Gobias Industries]

bcf5575[/b]]

I am getting to the point (getting to - not there yet) where I wouldnt mind seeing Counsell batting leadoff and playing 2b instead of weeks. I was expecting big things from Rickie this year and it just isnt happening. I know its early so I havent given up on him yet - just getting frustrated.

 

 

 

It is frustrating, no doubt. But like Stevo said, it should even out. His career BABIP is .303, so it should revert somewhere around that. Counsell is a very fine option off the bench, but he's not gonna out hit any of our regulars over the course of the season.

 

I mean look at Bill Hall last week compared to this week. Everyone considers him to not be struggling anymore because of a few sawed-off singles. Weeks has exactly 100 at-bats, and could easily have 10 more hits if it weren't for bad luck. He'd then be batting .290 and everyone would be ecstatic.

[Thurston Fluff]

I thought Ned mentioned he wanted to get Counsell in more games in a pregame show last week. IIRC he panned on getting him a couple starts a week. As far as Branyon goes I'd rather see Dillon back up before him. Dillon seemed to be able to do more than hit homers or strike out.

[Gobias Industries]

I'd expect Counsell to get a start against Zambrano tomorrow, probably for either JJ or Rickie.

[BrewCrewForever]

I'm all for Counsell starting a few times a week to give breaks to the other guys. He plays great D at all three spots and has hit pretty well this season.

[twobrewers]

Weeks has a .213 batting average on balls in play. He's getting really unlucky so far and hitting into a lot of hard outs.

Making week contact leads to a low batting average on balls in play. Weeks is hitting a lot of week ground balls, choppers and shallow pop-ups. I think I've only seen Weeks really center on about 10 balls this year.

 

Counsell will start getting more starts as the season wears on. But in April, there are enough off days to keep everyone pretty fresh.

[DrWood]

for clarification, I'd demote gwynn or kapler if I brought up Branyan. Probably Gwynn, but I didn't want this to devolve into a for-or-against Gwynn thread. I'd love to bring up Dillon, too, but he can't help out with a partial-platoon at 3b.

[DrWood]

What's the point of having the platoon advantage when you still can't hit with it? These samples aren't really large enough to say anything definitively but here goes:

 

Counsell (37 years old) against RH hitters from 05'-07':

 

.249/.337/.359/.696

 

Weeks (25 years old):

 

.249/.346/.404/.750

 

I like Counsell's defense over Weeks' for sure but should we really expect Counsell to outhit Weeks even with the platoon advantage? Weeks is over a decade youngber, so I think the answer is no.

 

With Hardy, you can probably make a case for it, offensively but I'd rather have Hardy's defense in there at SS, personally (I realize others aren't sold on Hardy's defense).

 

Listen, I love Russ as much as anyone else but who's spot is he going to take? Spot of the 13th pitcher?

 

That would be crazy not to have at least 13 pitchers! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif Seriously though, I'd be tempted to DFA Turnbow, send Gwynn down and bring up Dillon and Branyan. I don't mind Gwynn but the Brewers already have a light hitting LH hitter on the bench. Use Branyan primarily as a pinch hitter but give him a start once and awhile against a RH pitcher.

I know Counsell will probably regress sooner rather than later, but he does have an altered stance...and he is hitting about .340 vs. righties this season. If he regresses, stop putting him into the lineup.

 

[rluzinski]

Counsell has hit well in 37 AB this year, so let's ignore that he hit .248/.337/.351/.688 in 1232 AB over the previous 3 years? What he's done this year, offensively, is irrelevant, IMO. It tells us nothing with regard to future expections. It shouldn't even be entered into this discussion.

 

I am getting to the point (getting to - not there yet) where I wouldnt mind seeing Counsell batting leadoff and playing 2b instead of weeks.

 

Weeks is hitting like garbage but still has an OBP of .325 and a SLG of .330... batting .190! So, it takes Weeks batting below the Mendoza line before his numbers are worse than Counsell's and even then, it's not by much.

 

If people want to give the regulars breaks or would like to enjoy the defensive upgrade Counsell gives once and awhile, I can't disagree. The guy has thousands of AB that prove that he can't hit and at 37 years old, that isn't changing.

[DrWood]

Russ, I did view this as giving the regulars an occasional break while they weren't swinging well. I'd hope that by July they'd only be getting a break because of a needed rest.

 

Really, grasping at straws to find some way to make the RH-LH differential less, because it is huge right now.

[Thurston Fluff]

What he's done this year, offensively, is irrelevant, IMO. It tells us nothing with regard to future expections. It shouldn't even be entered into this discussion.

 

This is a very minor point to an otherwise very agreeable take but it is not completely irrelevant. It does tell us that he is playing well right now and we might as well use him while he's hot since he inevitabley will be so cold at some point this season that he will play to his career numbers. If he has to be used, which I think we all agree he will have to be, it might as well be when he's going well. Other than that very minor point I agree with you.

[Ennder]

Russ, I did view this as giving the regulars an occasional break while they weren't swinging well. I'd hope that by July they'd only be getting a break because of a needed rest.

 

Really, grasping at straws to find some way to make the RH-LH differential less, because it is huge right now.

There really is no way, the LH options we have are bad hitters. Counsell and Gwynn are both below average hitters. We are just going to suffer through some struggles and righties. Maybe run a bit more against them and hope that Fielder has big days. Cameron, Hart and Braun aren't horrible against righties so we still have an ok core against them.

[JohnBriggs12]

Counsell has already started sliding down to what he is, about a .240 hitter who'll get on at about a .320 clip and supply little power. At 37, he's really not that much of a defensive upgrade either. One start a week along with 4-5 PH chances is enough to keep him sharp to the extent he can. He's shown in recent years, if he plays a lot, he tails off. He's okay to have around as a nice steadying player, but even he realizes if he plays more that it's not a good sign.

 

As for Branyan, there's a reason he couldn't get a major league camp audition. One good month in AAA doesn't change that. If he stays consistent and puts up good power numbers, I could see adding his bat for the final month, but even then he should only be used in a favorable matchup.

[DrWood]

As for Branyan, there's a reason he couldn't get a major league camp audition. One good month in AAA doesn't change that. If he stays consistent and puts up good power numbers, I could see adding his bat for the final month, but even then he should only be used in a favorable matchup.

Branyan is pretty consistent. 40% strikeouts. .850 OPS vs righties if he's getting any kind of playing time; that's better than any option outside of prince.

 

[Glennron]

I don't see why Weeks and Hardy, and Hall for that matter, need to have a day off every week. Unless they're clearly fatigued or struggling mightily, Counsell should not be starting any games. I can see if Weeks or Hardy need a game off every other week or something, but each of them once a week is a little ridiculous.

[rluzinski]

This is a very minor point to an otherwise very agreeable take but it is not completely irrelevant. It does tell us that he is playing well right now and we might as well use him while he's hot since he inevitably will be so cold at some point this season that he will play to his career numbers.

 

I've said this many times before, but a batter being "hot" or "cold" is almost 100% descriptive and has almost no predictive value. It's easy to imagine a way to test the "hot bat" theory and it has in fact been done many times (the most recent and best, IMO was in "The Book". The effect was so small (something like 5 points of OBP and 10 points) that it's basically negligible. People are just noticing the random bunching of hits and non-hits. A .250 hitter isn't going to go 1 for 4 every night. I've made spreadsheets that simulate the most consistent player in the world (one who has exactly the same probability of a hit every AB) and he's insanely streaky:

 

http://rluzinski.blogspot.com/2006/05/jenkins-and-consistency.html

 

And even if a guy can legitimately and significantly, raise his expected performance level for a short period of time, how the heck would you know? It's going to look exactly like the very typical normal variance all players go through. Coin flip luck. You don't make your lineup based on that.

[endaround]

No you use a hat

[jazzytrav]

Give Counsell less starts.

 

I don't understand how Counsell gives us a better chance of winning just by getting more starts. Maybe I'm not making the connection. If it was a young guy like Gwynn, I would say that more starts could be beneficial. But the entire reason to have a veteran like Counsell is the fact that he can come off the bench or give you a start when needed. He doesn't need to be given starts just to stay fresh.

 

I guess the only way I would justify starting someone that isn't good enough to start is if they are developing, and then only in the minors for the most part. That's why I would rather have Branyan and/or Dillon up and Gwynn down. Now that Cameron is here, Gwynn isn't going to play much. If we really think Gwynn is still a prospect (not starting this argument please), then wouldn't he benefit from regular playing time? Branyan, Dillon, and Counsell aren't going to get any better with playing time. They are what they are. They don't need to start more.

[lukevan]

I think Counsell is being used just as he should. Spot starts and pinch hitting if we need someone to get on base in a late-inning situation.

 

I'd also like to have Branyan up instead of Gwynn, considering most of our regular starters will never need a pinch runner and Cameron will start about 9 out of 10 games I'd guess. Kapler can back up CF. I'd like Gwynn to become a better hitter and the best way to do that is regular ABs.

[Gopher74]

Making week contact leads to a low batting average on balls in play. Weeks is hitting a lot of week ground balls, choppers and shallow pop-ups. I think I've only seen Weeks really center on about 10 balls this year.

 

Counsell will start getting more starts as the season wears on. But in April, there are enough off days to keep everyone pretty fresh.

Then you and I are watching two different hitters. Rickie's been hitting the ball pretty hard for the most part. Certainly more than 10 balls that he's centered on. Hell, 3 HR's, that bases loaded triple, the Liner to the SS last week with the bases juiced, and two balls in the extra inning games vs the Cardinals that he hit to about the warning track. That's 7 right there. I think he's had quite a few more...certainly more than 3.