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Cameron: not a "sure" fix


Greg Vaughn

I don't think Mike Cameron will suddenly make every guy in the lineup a better hitter, that's ridiculous.

 

Completely untrue. Mike Cameron is going to heal Ben Sheets's shoulder with a wink & a kiss, and make us all 2.75x better baseball fans than we ever could dream to be. Mike Cameron for President.

Stearns Brewing Co.: Sustainability from farm to plate
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Hart is probably better in the two spot than Cameron due to having a higher OPS, therefore he'd get more ABs, and his higher average would be nice there (getting Weeks over to third). More importantly though while Cameron may not be the savior, at some point this team is going to remember it led the league in HRs last year and the offense will start. And there's decent odds it happens shortly after Cameron comes back. Poof we have the sports equivalent of causality. So be prepared for lots of Mike Cameron 2008 spark that propelled the team.
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This is my basic point for this whole post:

I've read for 23 games now (I'm not exaggerating), that we just have to stay afloat until Cameron comes back and that will solve all of our offensive woes.....as if he's Albert Pujols or something.

It should be easy for you to provide a few examples then, because I haven't seen that. I have seen most people think/say that his return would make the team better, which it will. That it will help develop some consistency, which it will. I definitely have not seen anyone even infer that he is Albert Pujols. Again, since you aren't exagerrating and it has been going on for 25 games, I assume you can produce several examples.

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the Brewers lineup was built for Cameron to be in the 2-hole. Instead of rearranging the lineup until Cam got back, Yost decided to keep it consistent and left a gaping hole there right behind Weeks and right in front of the cleanup hitters. If Cameron wasn't on the team, Hart would be in the 2-hole and Hall in the 5. This probably has cost the Crew already this year. So yes, his return will help this team considerably.
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I'm cautious about Cameron too. Yes, he's played in some big ballparks, but he's never hit for a high average. Another concern for me is that he's 35 and there was a time (pre PED) that many guys were losing it at 35. He's also not a classic #2 hitter. He might be patient enough, but he's not the type you can do much hit and running with.

 

That being said, he does possess a power bat and somebody on this team needs to start producing extra base hits. Adding him to the mix might just be the ingredient needed. It might add that little extra pressure on the opposing pitcher that causes him to make mistakes if not to Cameron but the guys that follow.

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Amen End.

 

Cameron coming back means we won't have our worst hitter hitting in front of the big boys and Ned will be less likely to sac bunt/hit and run. I concede that Hart would look really good in the 2 hole, but Cam isn't a bad choice.

 

Our offense is ice cold right now. We know these kids can hit, so at some point they are all going to get hot. I don't see how that doesn't happen. It is in no way associated with the return of Cam to the lineup, but bet your bottom dollar the usual "experts" (The Rock, Sports talk radio, national media, etc) will proclaim Cam to be the catalyst that jump started the offense.

The poster previously known as Robin19, now @RFCoder

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Cameron has power to right center that died at Petco so he had to pull the ball for power. Batting second and hitting to right center is going get Cameron going. When he sees the ball fly out to RC compared to what he's been experiencing he's going to love playing here and the team will get one of the best baserunners in baseball on the paths. They need his help.
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Keep in mind Cameron's career numbers (OBP/SLG) at the following parks:

 

.444/.714--Miller Park

.411/.656--Wrigley

.378/.345--Great American

.293/.521--Minutemaid

.309/.460--PNC

 

Cameron's numbers are horrible at Busch, but it is only 7 games. However, he simply hits very well at most of the Central division stadiums, so I wouldn't be worried about Cameron wherever he hits.

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Personally, I am just excited to watch him play CF, run the bases the way they are supposed to be ran, and see what kind of numbers he can put up at MP. The guy hit 22 and 21 HR's in the last 2 years playing half of his games at Petco! And for a guy the strikes out quite a bit, he has always been a pretty good OBP man. Ned said he wants to have Corey in the #5 spot because it affords Corey the chance to drive in runs, so I would think that Cam is your next best option there at 2, if not your best. He puts together good at bats.
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Hart is no more likely than Cameron to have a better OBP.

 

I think if you offered even odds on that, you'd find about 95% of fans taking Hart, if only because Hart is a almost a decade younger.

I think it will be very close, but if you made me choose I'd go with Cameron. He's finally out of a pitcher's park and he takes walks much more than Hart does.

 

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ZiPS projections (which are park adjusted) have Cameron with a .341 OBP to Hart's .353:

 

http://rluzinski.blogspot.com/2008/01/2008-brewer-offensive-zips-projections.html

 

Cameron is expected to walk more but Hart's expected BA more than makes up for it (.289 vs. .254). Even if you are skeptical of using a park factor on a single player (parks are going to effect every player differently), looking at Cameron's road split from the last 3 years, weighted by AB and year (.5/.3/.2) gives you this line:

 

.262/.348/.461/.809

 

Adjusting for age gets you right around that orginal ZiPS .341 OBP projection. I think Cameron is a fine player but he isn't getting any younger and I think Hart is just the better hitter overall (getting on base and power).

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So if Hart is the better hitter then wouldn't the Brewers be better served with him staying in the 5 spot? Teams will keep walking Prince till someone makes them pay for it consistently and if Hart is the better hitter then this is the spot to use him. And I believe he will start making them pay for this strategy as his power gets going. So I'm good with Cameron hitting 2 and Hart 5.
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I'm excited to have Cameron back. I think Cam should bat 2nd, and Hart 5th. Hart offers the better protection for Prince.

 

Is anybody worried about Cameron having a slow start? Hopefully his time in AZ and Nashville will have him ready. He's the one guy you can't blame for struggling in the next week or so. Don't you just know if he does have a slow start and starts off 2 for 12, the bandwagon fans will be screaming for Gwynn and Kapler because Cameron is batting under .200. Anybody want guess the next time we see TG jr or Kapler start a game? It could (and should) be awhile.

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So if Hart is the better hitter then wouldn't the Brewers be better served with him staying in the 5 spot? Teams will keep walking Prince till someone makes them pay for it consistently and if Hart is the better hitter then this is the spot to use him.

 

If it's late and close, teams are going to walk Fielder when they want to no matters who's batting after him, IMO. If it's the 6th or earlier, I'd love them to walk Prince every time.

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Cameron has power to right center that died at Petco so he had to pull the ball for power. Batting second and hitting to right center is going get Cameron going.

 

I hope you are right. Maybe, just maybe that will rub off on the rest of the guys. Our line up is full of guys that have power the other way yet they all try to pull every freaking pitch. Especially Bill Hall and Braun, they are both so good when they drive the ball to right center, it makes them much harder to pitch to.
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