THT article on Gallardo (also Fielder and Gamel, links in post #5)

[logan82]

To sum up, he is good.

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-future-of-yovani-gallardo/

[Oldcity]

Good article. The thing the struck me the first time I saw him pitch was how calm he is on the mound. It's really impressive.

[TooLiveBrew]

To sum up, he is good.

 

Man, thanks for sharing this, logan. "Good" isn't even what the article suggests:

 

Grade:

9 Upside, average to high probability of reaching upside

7 Downside, average probability of reaching downside

 

 

For reference, Eisenberg defines these parameters:

 

10 - Hall of Fame Player

9 - All-Star Player, Among the Top-5 at Respective Position, #1 starter

8 - Above Average Regular, Borderline All-Star, #2 Starter

7 - Average - Above Regular, #3 Starter, Elite Reliever

6 - Average Regular, Left-Side Platoon, #4 Starter, Good Reliever

5 - Below Average Regular, Good Bench Player, Right-Side Platoon, #5 Starter, Average Reliever

4 - Utility Player, Average Bench Player, Swing/Long Man, Below Average Reliever

3 - Below Average Bench Player, AAAA Player, Replacement Player Level

2 - Organizational Depth, Below Replacement Level Player

1 - Career Minor Leaguer

______________________________________________________________

 

 

Probability is subjective, but I give you what in my opinion is the most realistic upside and the most realistic downside and if there is a major difference between the upside and downside, the mid-level projection is given.

When you see various Low, Average, or High Probabilities, we should assume:

Low = 10% - 15% Probability

Average = 20% - 30% Probability

High = 35% - 50% Probability

 

 

So, basically, Yovani's downside is a #3 SP, with only like a 1/3 chance to slip to that. I know this is only one man's opinion, but damn!

[logan82]

TooLiveBrew wrote:

"Good" isn't even what the article suggests:

I know, but it sounded better than "Alex Eisenberg thinks Gallardo should be an all-star."

[TooLiveBrew]

http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Don't get me wrong -- what you wrote made me chuckle.

 

 

EDIT: It's been really interesting so far to watch YoGa pitch tonight. I'm doing my best to try & watch his mechanics/delivery after that awesome frame-by-frame breakdown. One thing I notice right away is the point about 'repeatability'

[NoVaO]

Hey guys, I'm the author of that article and I wanted to thank you for the link and the kind words. I didn't want to start a new thread, however.

 

There are a couple other articles I'm sure people would be interested in, specifically a breakdown on Mat Gamel and a hitting mechanics related article on Prince Fielder. If anybody is interested, the links are below:

 

Mat Gamel

 

Prince Fielder

 

One guy I've noticed in the Brewer organization is Zach Braddock, who I did get video on, but could not get a good enough view to actually conduct an analysis on. However, numbers wise he is definitely a sleeper. Anybody have any other suggestions of guys to look at in the Brewer organization? Also, kudos to an excellent site. Keep up the good work.

[TooLiveBrew]

Thanks for chiming in, Alex. I'm not even close a minor-league expert by any stretch, but we do have a few that post consistently in the Minor Leagues forum.

 

Also, you can check out the Power 50 rankings. If I had to name a guy or two, I'd suggest Matt LaPorta (though he's hardly a sleeper), & Alcides Escobar (coming into his own as a hitter with sweet D). Others will know better than me, however.

[NoVaO]

Thanks for chiming in, Alex. I'm not even close a minor-league expert by any stretch, but we do have a few that post consistently in the Minor Leagues forum.

 

Also, you can check out the Power 50 rankings. If I had to name a guy or two, I'd suggest Matt LaPorta (though he's hardly a sleeper), & Alcides Escobar (coming into his own as a hitter with sweet D). Others will know better than me, however.

 

Thanks for the reply. Laporta would be an interesting guy to do, but Carlos Gomez of THT did a draft recap from last year and has a breakdown of Laporta with video from his Florida days:

 

Matt Laporta

 

I would agree with Gomez in that he has a classic power hitter's swing. Lets his hips and hands turn together, while letting the ball travel deep into his hitting zone (indicator of bat speed). Also keeps his swing pretty short for a power hitter.

[uwisfan]

all the buzz has been around Braddock lately. The other one that everyone is curious about is Jeffress.

 

As far as the major league roster, there is much debate over Carlos Villanueva, who has pitched well, but the "projections" have said he is overachieving..

[TheCrew07]

It's tough to do an analysis on a guy who's currently serving a suspension though.

[twobrewers]

From the article..

Gamel has yet to put up numbers that really make you say "wow," but he has improved each and every year in gradual amounts.

 

Gamel was MVP of the Hawaii Winter League. He is currently in AA with a BA of .362, a OBP of .423, Slugging .606 and an OPS of 1.029 as a 22 year old. Braun had a .956 OPS as a 22 year old in AA.

 

You can say "wow" now.

 

(I know that is minor league forum talk - but I had to defend Mat!)

[Tbadder]

I love Gamel. I really think he's gonna eventually have the "wow" factor in the bigs. I can see LaPorta being a .250 40 homer guy, but I think Gamel can be a .290 30 homer guy. He'll be solid on the base paths; he's a student of the game it appears. I think I'm developing a man crush.

[DrWood]

an analysis of michael brantley would be interesting, particularly if it discussed what he needs to do to increase power.

[Nader Raider Tim]

Zach Braddock is the pitcher that has most of the Brewers fans intrigued. Taylor Green would be the hitter that is in the same boat. Those two players seem to be extremely high ceiling players.

[NoVaO]

From the article..

Gamel has yet to put up numbers that really make you say "wow," but he has improved each and every year in gradual amounts.

 

Gamel was MVP of the Hawaii Winter League. He is currently in AA with a BA of .362, a OBP of .423, Slugging .606 and an OPS of 1.029 as a 22 year old. Braun had a .956 OPS as a 22 year old in AA.

 

You can say "wow" now.

 

(I know that is minor league forum talk - but I had to defend Mat!)

 

Oh, no doubt about that. Keep in mind, however, I wrote the article over the offseason and while Winter League Ball does give you some indication of a player's progress, I can't use those numbers in the overall scheme of how Gamel has progressed over his career. However, Gamel really just screamed breakout player to me because it looked like he was poised to breakout last year, but only moderately improved over his overall numbers.

 

I am curious if anybody has an update on how his defense has progressed.

 

As for Braddock, I see he was dominant last night in 4 innings work. I'll be keeping my eye out for video on him that provides a better view of his stuff/mechanics.

[jazzytrav]

Very nice articles, Alex. I especially like the frame-by-frame analysis.

 

I would be really interested in seeing something on Escobar. I don't get into the Minor League stuff as much, but I imagine he's one of, if not the, closest to the bigs. Watch your back J.J. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[brewjihad]

I am curious if anybody has an update on how his defense has progressed.

 

Errors are about the only thing I can use to measure that because I can't watch him play every day, and he had 5 errors in their first 20 games or so- a little better- before he imploded the other night for three errors, all fielding I think.

[NoVaO]

jazzytrav, I haven't seen Escobar, but I honestly can't get excited judging by his numbers. His numbers are pretty terrible.

 

He hasn't shown much power over the course of his career, though he has shown an uptick this year. He doesn't strike out too often, but he isn't exactly a high-contact hitter. Given his poor BB%, he is going to have to hit for a high batting average to get his OBP up to an acceptable level. So I can't get excited about him. With that said, he is young, he is a SS that I have heard is a very good defensive SS and the bat is less of a priority for a SS, and maybe he could fill out a bit more. Plus, I haven't seen his swing, so he may have more potential than his numbers actually show.

 

brewjihad, thanks for the report. I guess we can't fully judge how his defense has progressed, but the errors do tell part of the story. Guess he still has some work to do. Either way, his bat should be able to play at every position, but his value is definitely highest at 3b.

[logan82]

NoVaO wrote:

brewjihad, thanks for the report. I guess we can't fully judge how his defense has progressed, but the errors do tell part of the story. Guess he still has some work to do. Either way, his bat should be able to play at every position, but his value is definitely highest at 3b.

It seems like many on this board think Gamel will end up at 1B. He might be in the majors around the time Fielder leaves and many seem to think he would be best at 1B given his defensive shortcomings.

[lexi881]

I am curious if anybody has an update on how his defense has progressed.

 

Errors are about the only thing I can use to measure that because I can't watch him play every day, and he had 5 errors in their first 20 games or so- a little better- before he imploded the other night for three errors, all fielding I think.

 

All three were fielding. The first one he fielded cleanly then dropped the ball in the transition from the glove to his throwing hand and the second he dove for and it went off the tip of his glove. He didnt say about the third one, so Im not sure what exactly happened, but it was fielding as well......he said "I had a banner day at third".......but is in good spirits and said he feels great at the plate. Hopefully he will stay that way so the errors wont get in his head.

[lexi881]

PS - at this point there is no talk within the organization of moving him off of third.

[jazzytrav]

Why, oh why can't we have a DH...or two.

[DrWood]

NoVaO wrote:

brewjihad, thanks for the report. I guess we can't fully judge how his defense has progressed, but the errors do tell part of the story. Guess he still has some work to do. Either way, his bat should be able to play at every position, but his value is definitely highest at 3b.

It seems like many on this board think Gamel will end up at 1B. He might be in the majors around the time Fielder leaves and many seem to think he would be best at 1B given his defensive shortcomings.

Gamel better be in the majors before Prince leaves. If he keeps tearing it up, he should get called up next season. All the more reason to try him at a couple other positions over the next year or so, so he can be more versatile.

 

[RightFieldCoder]

The "problem" is that our outfield already projects as Braun-Hart-Laporta (in some combination). Prince is pretty much going to man 1B until the Red Sox have the rights to talk to him. I believe moving him to C, SS, or 2B is right out of the question. Also, our current 3B has the most experience and is hence paid the most. He will either need to wait for Prince, stay at 3rd, or one of the young outfielders need to be traded.

[jazzytrav]

But at this point, based solely on hitting, who would be projected to hit the bigs first? If LaPorta can hold off a little longer than originally thought, the outfield could project to be Braun-Hart-Gamel. Then if Prince leaves, LaPorta would be (hopefully) ready to fill in at 1B. Or LaPorta could move to the OF and Gamel could move to 1B.