OF Gabe Gross traded to Tampa Bay for minor league pitcher Josh Butler

[valpocrewsader]

One last chance to be corny. "Two gaBEs, or not two gaBEs" ...that was the question. Apparently "not" was the answer.

 

With the Phillies in town tomorrow, maybe this is just to clear a quick spot for Jenks to suit up one last time as a Brewer. Celebrity guest whiff. It would bring down the house.

[splitterpfj]

If the Brewers did have a significant injury to a corner outfielder, I would not surprised to see Matt LaPorta in Milwaukee. Obviously, that's not what the organization wants to do, but he may be the best option, if Braun or Hart miss significant time.

[trwi7]

This looks so weird.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/images/players/mugshot/ph_408212.jpg

 

 

[And That]

If Hart or Braun were to go down, I have no doubt their first move right now would be to have a Kapler/Gwynn or Kapler/Iribarren platoon. I also tend to think Brad Nelson might be given a shot before they reach all the way back to AA and start LaPorta's arby clock before they have to.

 

I was perusing through the Power 50 a few minutes ago and to me, Josh Butler is a top 10 prospect in this system, or at least pretty close to it. I know that's small solace for Gabe Gross fans, but I'm just geeked to have Butler joining Periard in the Brevard rotation. While Gross was a nice guy to have around, I just can't see how he'd make any sort of dramatic difference in how the Brewers finish the season. If Hart or Braun get hurt, we're screwed no matter who else is on the bench.

[TooLiveBrew]

I just find it odd that he keeps coming up around here, and all that he supposedly brings to the table, yet he continually doesn't produce

 

This is why I think you don't understand how valuable Branyan's game is -- an .800 OPS over nearly 2,000 MLB ABs is a very good indicator of talent.

 

That's it. We're all being totally irrational with Russel the Muscle. So are the 5 organizations that he's been with in the last 2+ years. And his career lines of .229/.327 with a K more than every 3 times up?

 

Number of orgs has nothing to do with talent. Look at that bum Sheffield's career!

 

 

Maybe those who "misunderstand it" are the ones who think .196/.327 and a good SLG makes for a good player?

 

All I did was defend a solid player from an unwarranted smear... nowhere have I lauded the all-star qualities of Branyan. I'm not even that big a fan of Branyan, as I value OBP quite highly. However, to suggest that a guy that can carry a .330-ish OBP & near-.500 SLG (even when he strikes out as much as the Muscle does) isn't solid or doesn't 'deserve' some fan-love is preposterous. His BB rates don't slump, and if he can bat even just around .230-.240 for you, you've got incredible part-time production.

[Darnell Junior]

This might be a little bit of an overreaction by Melvin and Co. to Kapler's good play to start the year, but someone was going to have to go in the outfield. I'm sure Gabe is thrilled about the trade, the best of luck to him. I think the difference this will make on the season is VERY minimal.

[Oldcity]

I don't know much about Butler aside from what's been said here, but I'm not a fan of this trade at all. If one of Hart, Cameron or Braun get hurt, the Brewers will be in big trouble. Gross had everything that this offense needs more of, and shipping him out in favor of making slap-hitting Tony Gwynn the fourth outfielder is a definite downgrade.

 

I'd wager with anyone that Gross will significantly outperform Gwynn this season.

[trwi7]

The Brewers should forfeit, at least Cardinals fans think so!

[Glennron]

Triwi, that would sure suck if they had to forfeit. Is there anyway they can prove when the trade was made, though? I guess maybe if the Tampa GM says "we made it before their game" or something, but otherwise I don't know if it's possible to know.

[And That]

Given that Gross played, I'm sure the Rays didn't sign off on it until after the game so they could make sure he didn't get hurt. The Brewers also may have wanted to wait until after the 1:00 pm AAA game was over so they could make sure Gwynn didn't get hurt either. The Cardinal fans are already paranoid over their tenuous hold on second place. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Gopher74]

Number of orgs has nothing to do with talent. Look at that bum Sheffield's career!

 

When exactly has he ever been with 5 teams in 2 years? Moreover, when has he ever been waived? A player who bounces around in FA, or is traded for top prospects, a touch different than a player who's simply not wanted on team after team.

All I did was defend a solid player from an unwarranted smear

 

No, what you did was suggest that if people didn't like Branyan as a player, they MUST not be able to understand SLG.

... nowhere have I lauded the all-star qualities of Branyan. I'm not even that big a fan of Branyan, as I value OBP quite highly. However, to suggest that a guy that can carry a .330-ish OBP & near-.500 SLG (even when he strikes out as much as the Muscle does) isn't solid or doesn't 'deserve' some fan-love is preposterous.

 

Well, I think it's "preposterous" that because the guy takes the occasional walk in between his all or nothing swing leading to a .196/.320 line last year and his .228/.327 line the year before gets as much love as he does. I'd much rather have a guy on the bench who can do more little things than a guy who can only do one thing against left handed hitters.

His BB rates don't slump, and if he can bat even just around .230-.240 for you, you've got incredible part-time production.

Incredible? Wow. You don't have very high expectations, do you? .229/.327/.478, even with a pretty solid SLG pct is absolutely not "incredible". It's actually pretty poor for a team other than the San Fran Giants. But hey, he'd be a solid player for them.

[endaround]

Given that the current 3B will put up similar numbers, maybe you are the one who really needs to change your expectations?

[naivin]

However, to suggest that a guy that can carry a .330-ish OBP & near-.500 SLG (even when he strikes out as much as the Muscle does) isn't solid or doesn't 'deserve' some fan-love is preposterous.

 

I jnow I said I would stop talking about this, but I'll say agin, Branyan's numbers in AVG, OBP, and SLG are quite similar to those of Wes Helms and Kevin Mench. I know I don't read every post, but I must have missed it when people suggested that those two guys deserved some fan love. nor have I seen many people referring to them as solid.

[brewers19]

Branyan is always going to be a polarizing topic and it has almost nothing to do with this thread, so let's drop it.

[RobDeer 45]

As much crap as I gave Gross on here I will miss him. He is a great guy and good person to have on your team. You always knew that when he was subbing in he would be giving it his all. Wishing him the best in TB.

[naivin]

Gwynn

Majors: .271/.314/.329 = .643 OPS

Minors: .273/.349/.344 = .693 OPS

 

Gross

Majors .241/.341/.398 = .739 OPS

Minors: .286/.380/.449 = .829 OPS

 

I just think for depth purposes they kept the wrong guy.

 

 

 

We'll see (although I'm not certain Gwynn is any more a part of the long-range plans than Gross was), but I will say that Gwynn's minor league numbers were pulled down drastically by his first year in AA, and he has been consistently better in his other years. Likewise, Gross's 2006 greatly improved his overall MLB numbers, and the rest of his time is not consistent with that.

 

The numbers are the numbers, and I understand you have to include them all, but if you look at each guy's first 200 or so MLB AB's (which is all Gwynn has at this point), Gwynn has actually performed better than Gross with a huge edge in AVG, and almost identical OBP, and SLG. Gross's minor league career would suggest a little higher upside primarily from a SLG perspective), but in 5 seasons with MLB experience, he has not been able to demonstrate that with any kind of consistency. The trajectory at this point would seem to suggest that with additional development time, Gwynn can be somewhere around .280/.360/.360. In 5 years, Gross hasn't really been able to get there.

 

In the end, the incremental difference is negligible at best, I don't think either guy factored in long term, and DM made a decison based on the best fit for this team right now, and managed to get a pitcher with good potential in return.

[JJHardy7]

I know there have been some comments about how bad Gross was as a pinch-hitter and he might not fit the role needed by the Brewers. How does his pinch hitting average compare to the major league pinch hitting average? I thought the pinch hitter average was quite a bit lower than an everyday player average. Is that right or am I wrong on this?

[Thurston Fluff]

There are going to be times this year when the Brewers are going to have to send Counsell to the plate against a righty when they really need a HR late in the game, and there's going to be a lot of squawking about it when it happens.

 

How many times would we both need the late HR and he would actually provide it for us though. Add in the times we would need a better defensive option, or better base runner and I just don't see how trading one for the other really makes a differance. For every time Gabe would have provided a late inning HR there will be a time Gwynn makes a great play in the field to prevent the need for said late inning HR.

Goodbye and good luck Gabe.

[RobertR]

The problem with Gwynn is, where's the room for growth? The guy has zero power and you probably can count the number of useful hitters with zero power on one hand. Juan Pierre, even if he is grossly overpaid, and Luis Castillo are the only two that readily spring to mind. It's not like pitchers didn't figure him out last year, bust him inside with hard stuff and watch him weakly ground out to second.

 

It's not like Gross is irreplaceable, but he had useful skills that the Brewers can use and which aren't supplied by Gwynn, Kapler, Rivera, or Counsell. Having someone on the bench that can potentially take a RHP deep is a useful thing for a team to have, especially a playoff contending team with little margin for error. At some point in the season Braun is going to need a day off, presumably against a righty, and are the Brewers going to just stick Gwynn in the #4 spot?

 

I do suspect that Brad Nelson is going to find his way on the team in some capacity now that he's hitting again. And, if so, that takes a good chunk of my objections away. That said, he's not on the team yet as there's a hole on the team that needs filling in.

 

Robert

[Tbadder]

All this worry over Gabe Gross is hiding the real problem--the lack of lefthanded pop in the starting line-up, not the bench where a guy like Gross is going to get two at bats a week after Cameron returns. Whoever, and that includes Gwynn, is the 4th or 5th outfielder is going to be a non-factor. In fact, I go so far as saying that if Gross would've turned out to be the difference between us and our dividsion rivals, then we have no business being in a rivalry.

 

I'm betting that Kapler is worth zip and gwynn is worth zip and Gross is worth a low-prospect. I would've simply cut Kapler if I were GM, but I understand Melvin's thinking--"someone's got to go, we'll at least get a pitcher we were interested in from the beginning." The move makes lots of sense in the big picture, not so much in the small picture.

[naivin]

At some point in the season Braun is going to need a day off, presumably against a righty, and are the Brewers going to just stick Gwynn in the #4 spot?

No. No more than they would have put Gross in the 4 spot.

[endaround]

All this worry over Gabe Gross is hiding the real problem--the lack of lefthanded pop in the starting line-up, not the bench where a guy like Gross is going to get two at bats a week after Cameron returns. Whoever, and that includes Gwynn, is the 4th or 5th outfielder is going to be a non-factor. In fact, I go so far as saying that if Gross would've turned out to be the difference between us and our dividsion rivals, then we have no business being in a rivalry.

 

I'm betting that Kapler is worth zip and gwynn is worth zip and Gross is worth a low-prospect. I would've simply cut Kapler if I were GM, but I understand Melvin's thinking--"someone's got to go, we'll at least get a pitcher we were interesting from the beginning." The move makes lots of sense in the big picture, not so much in the small picture.

If Gross was given about 100 of Gwynn's 135 PAs last season, you could expected a win increase of 0.5 wins in 2007. Alone its not a huge thing but its fairly big for the limited PAs we're talking about. Gwynn was replacement level last year and little reason to expect him to be much better this year.

 

[Tbadder]

This is only a question Endaround, I really don't mean any thing by it, but isn't that .5 win only an offensive measurement?

[endaround]

Yeah, but as mostly phitter going forward, really the important one and there will be 100 PAs easy after Cameron comes back. Playing Gwynn vs Gross in center is big, but considering it should be Gwynn vs Hart....

[naivin]

Is there a way you can post the formula ~ how you arrived at that .5 wins?